Matchup briefs generated from our published model, plus original guides to reading statistics. Each brief carries the data edition and limitations behind its projections.
Browse the retained matchup reading archive →
Compare a weekly updating basketball model with its preseason baseline. Inspect monthly errors, probability calibration and the games behind the results.
Explore the experiment →Move from an NCAA production or impact screen to a reviewable scouting question. Keep the sample, source identity and next piece of evidence attached to the name.
Read the playbook →Learn how source-recorded possessions, transition share and assisted share describe a team without assigning player credit.
Read the field guide →Checking the live forecast edition…
Projected 63.5–81.3 · 89% home win · 144.8 total.
1.9 to 33.8 home-margin range · 68.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
Variance belongs in the story. The nominal home-margin range covers 31.8 points, so the forecast is a starting point for preparation rather than a script. Identify which lineup and shot-quality questions could move this game toward either edge.
Reporting question: Which lineup combination gives the underdog its clearest path toward the top of the range?
Read the notebook →Open the evidence brief →Projected 73.1–85.1 · 81% home win · 158.3 total.
-3.9 to 27.9 home-margin range · 71.2 possessions per 40 minutes.
Variance belongs in the story. The nominal home-margin range covers 31.9 points, so the forecast is a starting point for preparation rather than a script. Identify which lineup and shot-quality questions could move this game toward either edge.
Reporting question: Which lineup combination gives the underdog its clearest path toward the top of the range?
Read the notebook →Open the evidence brief →Projected 64.4–89.2 · 95% home win · 153.6 total.
8.9 to 40.7 home-margin range · 69.8 possessions per 40 minutes.
Variance belongs in the story. The nominal home-margin range covers 31.9 points, so the forecast is a starting point for preparation rather than a script. Identify which lineup and shot-quality questions could move this game toward either edge.
Reporting question: Which lineup combination gives the underdog its clearest path toward the top of the range?
Read the notebook →Open the evidence brief →Projected 64.2–83.4 · 91% home win · 147.6 total.
3.3 to 35.1 home-margin range · 69.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
Variance belongs in the story. The nominal home-margin range covers 31.8 points, so the forecast is a starting point for preparation rather than a script. Identify which lineup and shot-quality questions could move this game toward either edge.
Reporting question: Which lineup combination gives the underdog its clearest path toward the top of the range?
Read the notebook →Open the evidence brief →Projected 62.0–85.4 · 94% home win · 147.4 total.
7.5 to 39.3 home-margin range · 68.3 possessions per 40 minutes.
Variance belongs in the story. The nominal home-margin range covers 31.9 points, so the forecast is a starting point for preparation rather than a script. Identify which lineup and shot-quality questions could move this game toward either edge.
Reporting question: Which lineup combination gives the underdog its clearest path toward the top of the range?
Read the notebook →Open the evidence brief →Projected 59.3–87.2 · 96% home win · 146.5 total.
11.9 to 43.7 home-margin range · 67.2 possessions per 40 minutes.
Variance belongs in the story. The nominal home-margin range covers 31.9 points, so the forecast is a starting point for preparation rather than a script. Identify which lineup and shot-quality questions could move this game toward either edge.
Reporting question: Which lineup combination gives the underdog its clearest path toward the top of the range?
Read the notebook →Open the evidence brief →This watchlist is a transparent reading order from the published forecast: close margins, wide stored ranges and source-rated teams rise to the top. It is an editorial triage aid, not a new model or a claim about game quality.
Projected margin -0.5 · range -16.4 to 15.4.
Source ranks: #1 away · #4 home.
Open the evidence brief →Projected margin +1.6 · range -14.3 to 17.6.
Source ranks: #4 away · #11 home.
Open the evidence brief →Projected margin +4.7 · range -11.2 to 20.7.
Source ranks: #8 away · #1 home.
Open the evidence brief →Projected margin +1.3 · range -14.6 to 17.3.
Source ranks: #4 away · #12 home.
Open the evidence brief →Projected margin -1.6 · range -17.6 to 14.3.
Source ranks: #3 away · #14 home.
Open the evidence brief →Projected margin -0.7 · range -16.6 to 15.2.
Source ranks: #4 away · #15 home.
Open the evidence brief →These games have the largest absolute margin movement between the primary efficiency forecast and the research-only roster-continuity challenger. The challenger uses source-listed workload and publisher Box BPM; it does not replace the primary probability or establish availability.
Primary margin -9.7 · roster lens -2.6 · movement +7.2 points.
Read the matchup evidence →Primary margin +13.3 · roster lens +6.3 · movement -6.9 points.
Read the matchup evidence →Primary margin +8.7 · roster lens +1.8 · movement -6.9 points.
Read the matchup evidence →Primary margin +30.9 · roster lens +24.1 · movement -6.8 points.
Read the matchup evidence →Primary margin +33.3 · roster lens +26.6 · movement -6.6 points.
Read the matchup evidence →Primary margin +13.5 · roster lens +6.9 · movement -6.6 points.
Read the matchup evidence →The same evidence chain runs from a dated school announcement to a source-listed roster, prior college workload and a transparent fit shortlist. Coverage remains partial by design; the counts below are the current published edition, not a national portal census.
Read the source record, publication date and follow-up event before treating a signing as roster evidence.
Review recruiting evidence →Search the NCAA-derived roster archive and keep identity, position and availability questions attached to the source row.
Search roster intel →Compare returning minutes and incoming production inside the roster model before adjusting a matchup expectation.
Compare roster workload →Filter source-listed roles against prior workload and recorded production to build a reviewable recruiting shortlist.
Open the fit board →Start with a baseline, inspect its error, then ask which football questions the numbers cannot answer.
Read the guide →An introduction to expected points added, workload thresholds and responsible player comparisons.
Read the guide →Why archived odds and verified pregame observations belong in different evaluations.
Read the guide →A practical guide to Four Factors, pace, forecast ranges and roster evidence for 2026–27 college basketball.
Read the guide →How to use ORAPM, DRAPM, net RAPM and possession samples when comparing college players.
Read the guide →How to connect school statements, roster observations and prior college workload without inventing eligibility or a role.
Read the guide →How to read NCAA player efficiency, workload and impact rankings while keeping volume, sample size and identity boundaries visible.
Read the guide →How to use source-listed roster roles, prior workload and transparent fit percentiles to build a defensible recruiting shortlist.
Read the guide →How to move from NCAA player rankings and impact screens to a reviewable matchup or recruiting decision.
Read the guide →How to read source-recorded possessions, transition share and assisted share as team context without assigning player credit.
Read the guide →A practical workflow for connecting NCAA source rows, dated school statements, prior production and the next staff question.
Read the guide →How to read injury, redshirt and tournament-availability signals without turning a headline or roster row into a ruling.
Read the guide →How to use NCAA player-game rows, possession context, denominators and source identity in a recruiting review.
Read the guide →How to evaluate returning workload across dated NCAA roster transitions without turning a source listing into an eligibility or forecast claim.
Read the guide →A practical workflow for moving from a forecast range to Four Factors, roster evidence, film questions and a documented market check.
Read the guide →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →The projected score, unit efficiency, historical player leaders and a notebook for the film room.
Open the matchup →