Roster continuity is a clue, not a depth chart.
A roster release can show who was listed. It cannot tell a coach who is eligible, healthy or ready for the same role. Continuity becomes useful when its date, source identity and denominator stay visible.
The roster lab compares exact source-athlete IDs across consecutive releases. Returning minutes are separated from represented prior minutes, which also includes an exact ID seen at a different program. Unrepresented minutes remain a review queue; they are never labeled as departures.
Start with the transition clock
A transition row is a relationship between two source editions, not a live transaction. The current production challenger fits prior net efficiency, listed workload and attributed publisher Box BPM, then produces a margin scenario for the 2026–27 slate. It does not alter the primary probability, uncertainty or ledger registration.
Read the historical replay honestly
A separate NCAA-source replay adds dated workload evidence. It uses the 286, 286 and 291 mapped transition rows and keeps Box BPM out because that source release does not carry the publisher identity. The model is evaluated on the following season after fitting only earlier transitions.
| Test season | Training seasons | Teams | Workload MAE | Prior-net MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2024 | 286 | 5.61 | 6.48 |
| 2026 | 2024, 2025 | 289 | 5.87 | 6.55 |
These retrospective results are evidence about this workload replay, not a promise of future accuracy or a betting edge. The source mapping excludes ambiguous team names, and a source listing still does not establish eligibility, availability, injury status or depth-chart role.
Turn a row into a staff question
If represented minutes are low, ask which role needs replacing and what evidence supports that conclusion. If represented minutes are high, ask whether the returning player’s prior shot profile and defensive work fit the new opponent. Open the game log, NCAA roster record and dated announcement together. When the sources disagree, preserve the disagreement for film and eligibility review.
The primary forecast currently covers 1,579 2026–27 games from team efficiency and pace. Roster evidence tells a coach where to investigate; it does not silently become a model input.
Data attribution: SportsDataverse, CC BY 4.0. See the source receipts and model notebook.