How they move the ball.
How you stop it.
Place an offense beside the defense it will face. Compare play-weighted efficiency, rushing situations and explosive-play counts, then trace the numbers back to individual games. Explore 7 source seasons, from 2020 through partial 2026.
Test whether these statistics improve forecasts →
Descriptive, unadjusted statistics from covered finals. Opponent quality, roster changes and missing games can change the comparison. These rates do not modify the forecast model. “Allowed” uses the opponent’s offensive row from the same game.
Does advanced efficiency travel?
This challenger uses lagged EPA and yards-per-play rates to correct the score-only margin. Each row below is scored on a season the model did not train on; positive lift means lower mean absolute error than the primary margin.
| Test season | Training seasons | Games | Primary MAE | Challenger MAE | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | 770 | 14.10 | 13.94 | +0.16 |
| 2024 | 2022, 2023 | 787 | 14.48 | 14.59 | -0.12 |
| 2025 | 2022, 2023, 2024 | 784 | 14.29 | 14.35 | -0.06 |
The challenger remains exploratory. It does not change the published football probability, interval, market ledger, or matchup recommendation.
The matchup profile
12 covered / 12 scheduled finals · 12 paired games
13 covered / 13 scheduled finals · 13 paired games
| Measure | VanderbiltOffense / own production | North TexasAllowed / opponent production | North TexasOffense / own production | VanderbiltAllowed / opponent production |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPA / playOffensive expected points added divided by recorded scrimmage plays. Source EPA totals are rounded; this is unadjusted production. EPA_overall_off / scrimmage_plays | 0.32912 games · 733 plays | 0.11113 games · 924 plays | 0.29113 games · 904 plays | 0.15512 games · 782 plays |
Pass EPA / playPassing EPA divided by source pass plays; these are not necessarily official pass attempts. EPA_passing_overall / passes | 0.41512 games · 393 plays | -0.03113 games · 376 plays | 0.32113 games · 457 plays | 0.25012 games · 460 plays |
Rush EPA / playRushing EPA divided by source rushing plays. EPA_rushing_overall / rushes | 0.25412 games · 337 plays | 0.23913 games · 543 plays | 0.29113 games · 443 plays | 0.03312 games · 319 plays |
Yards / playSource offensive yards divided by scrimmage plays. Do not substitute passing plus rushing yards for the published offensive total. off_yards / scrimmage_plays | 7.5512 games · 733 plays | 5.6513 games · 924 plays | 7.5113 games · 904 plays | 5.8612 games · 782 plays |
Explosive play shareSource-classified explosive plays divided by scrimmage plays. EPA_explosive is a count, not EPA. This is our stated denominator, not a claim to reproduce every source rate or a fixed yardage threshold. EPA_explosive / scrimmage_plays | 12.0%12 games · 733 plays | 8.9%13 games · 924 plays | 9.1%13 games · 904 plays | 7.7%12 games · 782 plays |
Pass play sharePass plays divided by scrimmage plays. Describes play selection, not pass success. passes / scrimmage_plays | 53.6%12 games · 733 plays | 40.7%13 games · 924 plays | 50.6%13 games · 904 plays | 58.8%12 games · 782 plays |
First-down play shareSource first downs created divided by scrimmage plays. This is not standard down-and-distance success rate. first_downs_created / scrimmage_plays | 31.2%12 games · 733 plays | 25.9%13 games · 924 plays | 29.9%13 games · 904 plays | 26.5%12 games · 782 plays |
Power rush conversionSuccessful source-classified short-yardage power rushes divided by power attempts. No opportunities means unavailable, not zero percent. rushing_power_success / rushing_power | 74.1%11 games · 27 plays | 76.5%13 games · 51 plays | 76.6%12 games · 47 plays | 75.9%10 games · 29 plays |
Stuffed rush shareSource stuffed carries divided by rushing plays. Lower is favorable for an offense; higher is favorable for the defending team. rushing_stuff / rushes | 10.1%12 games · 337 plays | 7.2%13 games · 543 plays | 8.8%13 games · 443 plays | 14.1%12 games · 319 plays |
Rush opportunity shareSource-classified rushing opportunities divided by rushes; no additional yardage threshold is inferred. rushing_opportunity / rushes | 52.8%12 games · 337 plays | 55.4%13 games · 543 plays | 58.7%13 games · 443 plays | 50.2%12 games · 319 plays |
Line yards / rushSource line-credited rushing yards divided by rushing plays. A statistical allocation, not a player blocking grade. line_yards / rushes | 3.1612 games · 337 plays | 3.1713 games · 543 plays | 3.3113 games · 443 plays | 2.8712 games · 319 plays |
Special-teams EPA / playSource special-teams EPA divided by special-teams plays. Shown separately from offensive EPA; phases are never added together. EPA_special_teams / special_teams_plays | 0.14312 games · 99 plays | -0.02913 games · 164 plays | -0.00013 games · 114 plays | -0.07612 games · 148 plays |
Find a team’s tendencies
136 matching teams| Program | Covered / finals | EPA / playOwn production | EPA / playOpponent production | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VanderbiltSEC | 12 / 12 | 0.32912 games · 733 plays | 0.15512 games · 782 plays | · |
| North TexasAmerican | 13 / 13 | 0.29113 games · 904 plays | 0.11113 games · 924 plays | · |
| Notre DameFBS Indep. | 12 / 12 | 0.27812 games · 731 plays | -0.09212 games · 812 plays | · |
| USCBig Ten | 13 / 13 | 0.26213 games · 833 plays | 0.04613 games · 809 plays | · |
| UtahBig 12 | 12 / 12 | 0.25512 games · 871 plays | 0.00712 games · 822 plays | · |
| IndianaBig Ten | 15 / 15 | 0.24315 games · 981 plays | -0.11015 games · 844 plays | · |
| UConnFBS Indep. | 12 / 12 | 0.23912 games · 774 plays | 0.19112 games · 866 plays | · |
| NavyAmerican | 12 / 12 | 0.23712 games · 744 plays | 0.17812 games · 762 plays | · |
| Ohio StateBig Ten | 13 / 13 | 0.22813 games · 800 plays | -0.13913 games · 706 plays | · |
| Georgia TechACC | 12 / 12 | 0.21812 games · 790 plays | 0.15012 games · 786 plays | · |
| TennesseeSEC | 12 / 12 | 0.21712 games · 817 plays | 0.10812 games · 853 plays | · |
| Air ForceMountain West | 11 / 11 | 0.21511 games · 757 plays | 0.34911 games · 627 plays | · |
| UNLVMountain West | 13 / 13 | 0.20813 games · 875 plays | 0.11013 games · 850 plays | · |
| Ole MissSEC | 14 / 14 | 0.19714 games · 1,005 plays | 0.03814 games · 938 plays | · |
| Texas StSun Belt | 12 / 12 | 0.19512 games · 834 plays | 0.13312 games · 830 plays | · |
| CincinnatiBig 12 | 12 / 12 | 0.19412 games · 714 plays | 0.14212 games · 870 plays | · |
| WashingtonBig Ten | 12 / 12 | 0.19112 games · 744 plays | -0.04412 games · 783 plays | · |
| DukeACC | 13 / 13 | 0.18713 games · 890 plays | 0.16213 games · 872 plays | · |
| ArkansasSEC | 11 / 11 | 0.18711 games · 706 plays | 0.26211 games · 739 plays | · |
| Florida StACC | 11 / 11 | 0.18211 games · 763 plays | 0.05711 games · 722 plays | · |
| James MadisonSun Belt | 13 / 13 | 0.16413 games · 895 plays | -0.13813 games · 783 plays | · |
| South FloridaAmerican | 12 / 12 | 0.16312 games · 846 plays | -0.00312 games · 892 plays | · |
| Texas A&MSEC | 12 / 12 | 0.15712 games · 825 plays | -0.02312 games · 743 plays | · |
| MiamiACC | 15 / 15 | 0.15715 games · 981 plays | -0.08915 games · 954 plays | · |
| GeorgiaSEC | 13 / 13 | 0.15213 games · 909 plays | -0.00013 games · 787 plays | · |
| MemphisAmerican | 12 / 12 | 0.13812 games · 816 plays | 0.04112 games · 788 plays | · |
| OregonBig Ten | 14 / 14 | 0.13714 games · 963 plays | -0.05314 games · 915 plays | · |
| SMUACC | 12 / 12 | 0.13712 games · 785 plays | -0.00112 games · 885 plays | · |
| ArmyAmerican | 12 / 12 | 0.13312 games · 774 plays | 0.09912 games · 722 plays | · |
| TexasSEC | 13 / 13 | 0.13213 games · 831 plays | -0.05513 games · 887 plays | · |
| E MichiganMAC | 11 / 11 | 0.12911 games · 724 plays | 0.16411 games · 712 plays | · |
| IllinoisBig Ten | 12 / 12 | 0.12612 games · 757 plays | 0.13712 games · 783 plays | · |
| OhioMAC | 12 / 12 | 0.12512 games · 785 plays | -0.01612 games · 722 plays | · |
| RutgersBig Ten | 11 / 11 | 0.12411 games · 763 plays | 0.31311 games · 630 plays | · |
| GA SouthernSun Belt | 12 / 12 | 0.11812 games · 805 plays | 0.21512 games · 846 plays | · |
| MichiganBig Ten | 13 / 13 | 0.11613 games · 832 plays | 0.01013 games · 848 plays | · |
| UABAmerican | 11 / 11 | 0.11411 games · 761 plays | 0.22911 games · 695 plays | · |
| Utah StateMountain West | 12 / 12 | 0.10812 games · 780 plays | 0.12512 games · 901 plays | · |
| TempleAmerican | 11 / 11 | 0.10711 games · 672 plays | 0.13611 games · 721 plays | · |
| BYUBig 12 | 13 / 13 | 0.10513 games · 852 plays | 0.00113 games · 844 plays | · |
| TulaneAmerican | 14 / 14 | 0.10214 games · 922 plays | 0.05214 games · 951 plays | · |
| UTSAAmerican | 12 / 12 | 0.10212 games · 808 plays | 0.04412 games · 761 plays | · |
| New MexicoMountain West | 11 / 12 | 0.10011 games · 679 plays | 0.05211 games · 709 plays | · |
| ArizonaBig 12 | 12 / 12 | 0.09912 games · 817 plays | -0.05012 games · 791 plays | · |
| Iowa StateBig 12 | 11 / 11 | 0.09811 games · 751 plays | 0.00111 games · 709 plays | · |
| NC StateACC | 12 / 12 | 0.09712 games · 763 plays | 0.13012 games · 821 plays | · |
| Penn StateBig Ten | 12 / 12 | 0.09712 games · 784 plays | 0.00212 games · 818 plays | · |
| Texas TechBig 12 | 13 / 13 | 0.09013 games · 958 plays | -0.27113 games · 860 plays | · |
| VirginiaACC | 13 / 13 | 0.08913 games · 934 plays | -0.01213 games · 809 plays | · |
| BaylorBig 12 | 11 / 11 | 0.08911 games · 833 plays | 0.14711 games · 758 plays | · |
| Hawai'iMountain West | 12 / 12 | 0.08912 games · 821 plays | 0.04812 games · 739 plays | · |
| East CarolinaAmerican | 12 / 12 | 0.08812 games · 909 plays | -0.08012 games · 818 plays | · |
| KansasBig 12 | 11 / 11 | 0.08611 games · 697 plays | 0.14911 games · 739 plays | · |
| NebraskaBig Ten | 12 / 12 | 0.08312 games · 742 plays | 0.11712 games · 722 plays | · |
| LibertyCUSA | 11 / 11 | 0.08211 games · 735 plays | 0.17711 games · 722 plays | · |
| MissouriSEC | 12 / 12 | 0.08112 games · 831 plays | -0.05512 games · 715 plays | · |
| ToledoMAC | 12 / 12 | 0.08112 games · 778 plays | -0.17312 games · 760 plays | · |
| AlabamaSEC | 14 / 14 | 0.07914 games · 899 plays | -0.00414 games · 855 plays | · |
| TCUBig 12 | 12 / 12 | 0.07912 games · 829 plays | 0.04612 games · 807 plays | · |
| AuburnSEC | 11 / 11 | 0.07711 games · 745 plays | -0.00711 games · 708 plays | · |
| South AlabamaSun Belt | 11 / 11 | 0.07611 games · 781 plays | 0.20111 games · 705 plays | · |
| Kennesaw StCUSA | 13 / 13 | 0.07313 games · 896 plays | 0.08413 games · 909 plays | · |
| HoustonBig 12 | 12 / 12 | 0.07112 games · 849 plays | 0.00412 games · 793 plays | · |
| Missouri StCUSA | 12 / 12 | 0.07012 games · 776 plays | 0.11912 games · 776 plays | · |
| DelawareCUSA | 12 / 12 | 0.06712 games · 863 plays | 0.11412 games · 801 plays | · |
| IowaBig Ten | 12 / 12 | 0.06512 games · 715 plays | -0.06812 games · 722 plays | · |
| Old DominionSun Belt | 12 / 12 | 0.06512 games · 811 plays | -0.09212 games · 833 plays | · |
| MarshallSun Belt | 11 / 11 | 0.06411 games · 748 plays | 0.13111 games · 751 plays | · |
| Jax StateCUSA | 13 / 13 | 0.06313 games · 887 plays | 0.04513 games · 876 plays | · |
| FAUAmerican | 11 / 11 | 0.06211 games · 846 plays | 0.17411 games · 804 plays | · |
| Virginia TechACC | 11 / 11 | 0.05511 games · 690 plays | 0.22911 games · 712 plays | · |
| ClemsonACC | 12 / 12 | 0.05112 games · 813 plays | 0.01312 games · 790 plays | · |
| Southern MissSun Belt | 12 / 12 | 0.04712 games · 843 plays | 0.05012 games · 890 plays | · |
| LouisvilleACC | 12 / 12 | 0.04712 games · 766 plays | -0.05412 games · 778 plays | · |
| Arizona StBig 12 | 12 / 12 | 0.04612 games · 858 plays | 0.00312 games · 829 plays | · |
| Western KYCUSA | 12 / 12 | 0.04512 games · 826 plays | -0.00812 games · 865 plays | · |
| Boise StMountain West | 13 / 13 | 0.04113 games · 948 plays | 0.00113 games · 784 plays | · |
| MTSUCUSA | 11 / 11 | 0.04111 games · 759 plays | 0.11311 games · 722 plays | · |
| NorthwesternBig Ten | 12 / 12 | 0.04012 games · 765 plays | 0.04312 games · 707 plays | · |
| Boston CollegeACC | 11 / 11 | 0.03811 games · 758 plays | 0.25011 games · 729 plays | · |
| Michigan StBig Ten | 11 / 11 | 0.03611 games · 700 plays | 0.15211 games · 696 plays | · |
| Kansas StBig 12 | 11 / 11 | 0.03311 games · 672 plays | 0.05411 games · 792 plays | · |
| CaliforniaACC | 12 / 12 | 0.03212 games · 828 plays | 0.14912 games · 793 plays | · |
| PittACC | 12 / 12 | 0.03012 games · 810 plays | -0.07312 games · 811 plays | · |
| FIUCUSA | 12 / 12 | 0.03012 games · 833 plays | 0.05012 games · 829 plays | · |
| UCLABig Ten | 12 / 12 | 0.02912 games · 746 plays | 0.20512 games · 764 plays | · |
| Mississippi StSEC | 12 / 12 | 0.02712 games · 872 plays | 0.12312 games · 830 plays | · |
| Arkansas StSun Belt | 12 / 12 | 0.02312 games · 897 plays | 0.08512 games · 833 plays | · |
| Georgia StSun Belt | 11 / 11 | 0.02211 games · 768 plays | 0.22011 games · 751 plays | · |
| App StateSun Belt | 12 / 12 | 0.01812 games · 845 plays | 0.14312 games · 859 plays | · |
| Wake ForestACC | 12 / 12 | 0.01812 games · 786 plays | -0.04112 games · 832 plays | · |
| Washington StPac-12 | 12 / 12 | 0.01712 games · 781 plays | -0.03412 games · 709 plays | · |
| Louisiana TechCUSA | 12 / 12 | 0.01612 games · 789 plays | -0.02712 games · 820 plays | · |
| LouisianaSun Belt | 12 / 12 | 0.01412 games · 773 plays | 0.13212 games · 816 plays | · |
| W MichiganMAC | 13 / 13 | 0.01313 games · 836 plays | -0.07313 games · 799 plays | · |
| MinnesotaBig Ten | 11 / 12 | 0.00511 games · 656 plays | 0.11611 games · 689 plays | · |
| San Diego StMountain West | 12 / 12 | 0.00312 games · 737 plays | -0.11512 games · 816 plays | · |
| C MichiganMAC | 12 / 12 | -0.00912 games · 723 plays | 0.02212 games · 790 plays | · |
| MarylandBig Ten | 11 / 11 | -0.01611 games · 722 plays | 0.06111 games · 792 plays | · |
| UCFBig 12 | 11 / 11 | -0.01711 games · 727 plays | 0.04811 games · 725 plays | · |
| KentuckySEC | 11 / 11 | -0.01711 games · 719 plays | 0.06911 games · 729 plays | · |
| North CarolinaACC | 11 / 11 | -0.01711 games · 643 plays | 0.07411 games · 741 plays | · |
| Miami OHMAC | 13 / 13 | -0.01913 games · 778 plays | 0.03213 games · 906 plays | · |
| San José StMountain West | 11 / 11 | -0.02111 games · 755 plays | 0.14011 games · 737 plays | · |
| Colorado StMountain West | 11 / 11 | -0.02511 games · 683 plays | 0.17211 games · 741 plays | · |
| OklahomaSEC | 12 / 12 | -0.03312 games · 785 plays | -0.17412 games · 776 plays | · |
| PurdueBig Ten | 11 / 11 | -0.03411 games · 698 plays | 0.19911 games · 695 plays | · |
| AkronMAC | 11 / 11 | -0.03811 games · 758 plays | 0.06411 games · 712 plays | · |
| Kent StateMAC | 11 / 11 | -0.04211 games · 631 plays | 0.15511 games · 812 plays | · |
| LSUSEC | 12 / 12 | -0.04312 games · 728 plays | -0.03712 games · 786 plays | · |
| South CarolinaSEC | 11 / 11 | -0.04311 games · 691 plays | 0.00811 games · 728 plays | · |
| TulsaAmerican | 11 / 11 | -0.04411 games · 813 plays | 0.09211 games · 791 plays | · |
| FloridaSEC | 11 / 11 | -0.04711 games · 682 plays | 0.12611 games · 744 plays | · |
| ColoradoBig 12 | 12 / 12 | -0.04912 games · 783 plays | 0.09712 games · 817 plays | · |
| RiceAmerican | 12 / 12 | -0.05812 games · 786 plays | 0.18012 games · 757 plays | · |
| UL MonroeSun Belt | 11 / 11 | -0.06111 games · 656 plays | 0.11311 games · 764 plays | · |
| StanfordACC | 12 / 12 | -0.06212 games · 775 plays | 0.08112 games · 819 plays | · |
| Bowling GreenMAC | 11 / 11 | -0.06711 games · 683 plays | 0.04111 games · 660 plays | · |
| Oregon StPac-12 | 11 / 11 | -0.07411 games · 769 plays | 0.07911 games · 675 plays | · |
| Fresno StMountain West | 12 / 12 | -0.07612 games · 776 plays | -0.13712 games · 752 plays | · |
| WyomingMountain West | 11 / 11 | -0.07911 games · 711 plays | -0.01111 games · 716 plays | · |
| BuffaloMAC | 11 / 11 | -0.08111 games · 742 plays | 0.00711 games · 771 plays | · |
| CoastalSun Belt | 12 / 12 | -0.08312 games · 777 plays | 0.07712 games · 886 plays | · |
| TroySun Belt | 13 / 13 | -0.08513 games · 843 plays | -0.00213 games · 860 plays | · |
| N IllinoisMAC | 11 / 11 | -0.08911 games · 666 plays | 0.09411 games · 730 plays | · |
| New Mexico StCUSA | 11 / 11 | -0.09011 games · 760 plays | 0.02111 games · 781 plays | · |
| West VirginiaBig 12 | 11 / 11 | -0.09411 games · 761 plays | 0.08211 games · 791 plays | · |
| NevadaMountain West | 11 / 11 | -0.10511 games · 652 plays | 0.06011 games · 716 plays | · |
| SyracuseACC | 11 / 11 | -0.10911 games · 760 plays | 0.17911 games · 684 plays | · |
| UTEPCUSA | 11 / 11 | -0.12511 games · 735 plays | 0.02811 games · 786 plays | · |
| WisconsinBig Ten | 12 / 12 | -0.13112 games · 686 plays | 0.05412 games · 702 plays | · |
| Sam HoustonCUSA | 12 / 12 | -0.15012 games · 767 plays | 0.15712 games · 827 plays | · |
| Oklahoma StBig 12 | 11 / 11 | -0.15911 games · 709 plays | 0.16711 games · 753 plays | · |
| Ball StateMAC | 11 / 11 | -0.18011 games · 673 plays | 0.13111 games · 708 plays | · |
| UMassMAC | 11 / 11 | -0.20411 games · 700 plays | 0.20911 games · 753 plays | · |
| CharlotteAmerican | 11 / 11 | -0.20611 games · 672 plays | 0.14511 games · 807 plays | · |
Inside Vanderbilt’s sample
Download game evidence ↓Use Team A above to inspect another program. Each record keeps the original team and opponent fields. Game dates are UTC; postseason week numbers can restart.
Keep the denominator in view.
Season rates are sums of finite numerators divided by sums of their matching, positive denominators. A game missing either value is omitted for that metric. Zero opportunities produce an unavailable rate. Per-game EPA totals are already rounded by the source; these are not newly fitted EPA models.
All-opponent samples can contain FCS and other divisions. FBS-only samples restrict the opponents, while the board’s division filter controls which teams are listed. Neither setting adjusts for opponent strength. Coverage counts refer to the imported schedule, not an independently verified census.
Team division comes from nonempty schedule labels within the selected season. Missing or conflicting labels remain unknown. Historical all-star squads can appear in the full source archive; a directory label alone does not place them on the FBS board. Conference names retain the source team-directory labels.
Explosive plays and power rushes retain the publisher’s classification. First-down share is not down-and-distance success rate; line yards are not player grades. Special-teams production is separate from offensive EPA. College seasons use their starting year.
Publisher field documentation ↗Source receipts and downloads
schedule / 2025 ↗
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team_advanced / 2025 ↗
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teams / 2025 ↗
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