{"baseline_margin_mae":15.988772706884953,"calibration":{"preseason":{"binary_games":787,"games":787,"latest_calibration_kickoff":"2025-01-21T00:30:00.000Z","latest_training_kickoff":"2024-01-09T00:30:00.000Z","logistic_coefficients":[0.03536320733907593,0.08705446509617575],"logistic_penalty":0.01,"margin_half_width":23.767887135829675,"season":2024,"training_seasons":[2022,2023],"unscored_games":11},"weekly":{"games":787,"logistic_coefficients":[-0.1665881230675856,0.13582692766899032],"logistic_penalty":0.01,"margin_half_width":22.38408577763953,"season":2024}},"coverage":{"calibration_games":787,"calibration_weeks":22,"compared_games":784,"completed_schedule_games":3831,"outside_field":24,"scored_fbs_games":808,"test_weeks":22},"excluded_games":[{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2623","away_name":"Missouri State","away_score":13,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Big Ten","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"30","home_name":"USC","home_score":73,"id":"401752798","kickoff":"2025-08-30T23:30:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum","week":1},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"48","away_name":"Delaware","away_score":7,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Big 12","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"38","home_name":"Colorado","home_score":31,"id":"401756881","kickoff":"2025-09-06T19:30:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Folsom Field","week":2},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2623","away_name":"Missouri State","away_score":21,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Sun Belt","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"276","home_name":"Marshall","home_score":20,"id":"401757228","kickoff":"2025-09-06T22:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Joan C. Edwards Stadium","week":2},{"away_conference":"FBS Independents","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"41","away_name":"UConn","away_score":41,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"48","home_name":"Delaware","home_score":44,"id":"401757168","kickoff":"2025-09-13T19:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Delaware Stadium","week":3},{"away_conference":"ACC","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2567","away_name":"SMU","away_score":28,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2623","home_name":"Missouri State","home_score":10,"id":"401754615","kickoff":"2025-09-13T19:30:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Plaster Sports Complex","week":3},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"48","away_name":"Delaware","away_score":38,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2229","home_name":"Florida International","home_score":16,"id":"401757259","kickoff":"2025-09-20T22:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Pitbull Stadium","week":4},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"98","away_name":"Western Kentucky","away_score":27,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2623","home_name":"Missouri State","home_score":22,"id":"401757273","kickoff":"2025-09-27T23:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Plaster Sports Complex","week":5},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"98","away_name":"Western Kentucky","away_score":27,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"48","home_name":"Delaware","home_score":24,"id":"401757276","kickoff":"2025-10-03T23:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Delaware Stadium","week":6},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2623","away_name":"Missouri State","away_score":22,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2393","home_name":"Middle Tennessee","home_score":20,"id":"401757278","kickoff":"2025-10-08T23:30:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Johnny \"Red\" Floyd Stadium","week":7},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"48","away_name":"Delaware","away_score":25,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"55","home_name":"Jacksonville State","home_score":38,"id":"401757283","kickoff":"2025-10-15T23:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"AmFirst Stadium","week":8},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2393","away_name":"Middle Tennessee","away_score":28,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"48","home_name":"Delaware","home_score":31,"id":"401757287","kickoff":"2025-10-22T23:30:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Delaware Stadium","week":9},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2623","away_name":"Missouri State","away_score":24,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"166","home_name":"New Mexico State","home_score":17,"id":"401757288","kickoff":"2025-10-23T01:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Aggie Memorial Stadium","week":9},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2229","away_name":"Florida International","away_score":21,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2623","home_name":"Missouri State","home_score":28,"id":"401757291","kickoff":"2025-10-30T00:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Plaster Sports Complex","week":10},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"48","away_name":"Delaware","away_score":30,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2335","home_name":"Liberty","home_score":59,"id":"401757293","kickoff":"2025-11-01T19:30:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Williams Stadium (VA)","week":10},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2623","away_name":"Missouri State","away_score":21,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2335","home_name":"Liberty","home_score":17,"id":"401757299","kickoff":"2025-11-08T18:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Williams Stadium (VA)","week":11},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2348","away_name":"Louisiana Tech","away_score":24,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"48","home_name":"Delaware","home_score":25,"id":"401757295","kickoff":"2025-11-08T20:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Delaware Stadium","week":11},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2638","away_name":"UTEP","away_score":24,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2623","home_name":"Missouri State","home_score":38,"id":"401757304","kickoff":"2025-11-15T20:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Plaster Sports Complex","week":12},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"48","away_name":"Delaware","away_score":23,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2534","home_name":"Sam Houston","home_score":26,"id":"401757300","kickoff":"2025-11-16T00:00:00.000Z","neutral":1,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"BBVA Compass Stadium","week":12},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"48","away_name":"Delaware","away_score":14,"completed":1,"home_conference":"ACC","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"154","home_name":"Wake Forest","home_score":52,"id":"401754606","kickoff":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium","week":13},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2623","away_name":"Missouri State","away_score":34,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"338","home_name":"Kennesaw State","home_score":41,"id":"401757306","kickoff":"2025-11-22T19:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Fifth Third Stadium","week":13},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2638","away_name":"UTEP","away_score":31,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"48","home_name":"Delaware","home_score":61,"id":"401757310","kickoff":"2025-11-29T18:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Delaware Stadium","week":14},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2348","away_name":"Louisiana Tech","away_score":42,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2623","home_name":"Missouri State","home_score":30,"id":"401757314","kickoff":"2025-11-29T19:00:00.000Z","neutral":0,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Plaster Sports Complex","week":14},{"away_conference":"Sun Belt","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"309","away_name":"Louisiana","away_score":13,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Conference USA","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"48","home_name":"Delaware","home_score":20,"id":"401778305","kickoff":"2025-12-18T01:30:00.000Z","neutral":1,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Hancock Whitney Stadium","week":1},{"away_conference":"Conference USA","away_division":"fbs","away_id":"2623","away_name":"Missouri State","away_score":28,"completed":1,"home_conference":"Sun Belt","home_division":"fbs","home_id":"2032","home_name":"Arkansas State","home_score":34,"id":"401838053","kickoff":"2025-12-19T02:00:00.000Z","neutral":1,"season":2025,"time_tbd":0,"venue":"Ford Center At The Star","week":1}],"generated_at":"2026-09-12T13:31:19.048997Z","id":"e15877c196505e6c92dc951c0e27c6a4d93e7b34178f1a9bcec8944e59a51b95","implementation_sha256":{"football_evaluation.py":"926c8111ce66d1f789491cfacf478bac77a066ed83a63da0b7f5dcb54cdc0289","football_model.py":"931d5708b4b611be2bc60c3eb8e7da6378f245b0f3ee5edcae9a60041f65c733"},"limitations":["Retrospective experiment designed after the evaluation season. Historical source revisions and actual result-availability times are not reconstructed.","The 2023\u201324 and 2024\u201325 rolling transitions use prior-season calibration and independent following-season tests; calibration rows are not independent test performance.","Evaluation-season results enter later weekly fits only after the cutoff buffer, but never their own prediction.","The 24-hour start buffer is conservative scheduling, not proof that a historical result had been reported. Calendar weeks use UTC, not source week numbers.","Teams are frozen from the previous-season fit to keep both methods on the same field. New or unseen teams are excluded; performance on them is unknown.","Both methods use scores, program identity and venue only. No roster, recruiting, injury, advanced efficiency or market features are included.","The approximate interval resamples whole calendar weeks. Repeated teams and schedules can remain dependent across those blocks; it is not proof of future improvement or market advantage.","No production forecasts, model registrations, odds observations or prospective ledger results are changed by this experiment."],"metrics":{"preseason":{"brier":0.2113909917602041,"games":784,"interval_coverage":0.8061224489795918,"log_loss":0.6102419372702629,"margin_bias":-0.9482410008368841,"margin_mae":14.24173556507791,"margin_rmse":17.992527541227453,"total_mae":12.982790639283515,"winner_accuracy":0.6543367346938775},"weekly":{"brier":0.19494357868622447,"games":784,"interval_coverage":0.7946428571428571,"log_loss":0.5706117505567243,"margin_bias":-0.44709950590687136,"margin_mae":13.640227260755866,"margin_rmse":17.31130607238831,"total_mae":12.808141000500079,"winner_accuracy":0.701530612244898}},"paired_mae_difference":{"difference":-0.6015083043220437,"high":-0.3029754533991638,"low":-0.8774885123192475,"weeks":22},"production_model_id":"ridge-team-calibrated-v2-b4a3a7280415","season_results":[{"calibration_games":770,"calibration_season":2023,"calibration_weeks":21,"compared_games":787,"metrics":{"preseason":{"brier":0.22564092091486657,"games":787,"interval_coverage":0.7827191867852605,"log_loss":0.6426010707375145,"margin_bias":-0.9624273905044765,"margin_mae":14.636114701943155,"margin_rmse":18.356298093727396,"total_mae":13.024944071774026,"winner_accuracy":0.6200762388818297},"weekly":{"brier":0.20852046644218553,"games":787,"interval_coverage":0.7979669631512071,"log_loss":0.5998046561878919,"margin_bias":-0.6028909297986236,"margin_mae":13.9048145456137,"margin_rmse":17.545206524705023,"total_mae":12.846808577057372,"winner_accuracy":0.6632782719186785}},"season":2024,"stage":"independent_test","weekly_fits":22},{"calibration_games":787,"calibration_season":2024,"calibration_weeks":22,"compared_games":784,"metrics":{"preseason":{"brier":0.2113909917602041,"games":784,"interval_coverage":0.8061224489795918,"log_loss":0.6102419372702629,"margin_bias":-0.9482410008368841,"margin_mae":14.24173556507791,"margin_rmse":17.992527541227453,"total_mae":12.982790639283515,"winner_accuracy":0.6543367346938775},"weekly":{"brier":0.19494357868622447,"games":784,"interval_coverage":0.7946428571428571,"log_loss":0.5706117505567243,"margin_bias":-0.44709950590687136,"margin_mae":13.640227260755866,"margin_rmse":17.31130607238831,"total_mae":12.808141000500079,"winner_accuracy":0.701530612244898}},"season":2025,"stage":"independent_test","weekly_fits":22}],"settings":{"bootstrap_replicates":5000,"bootstrap_seed":2605,"calibration_season":2024,"evaluation_season":2025,"field":"Frozen from the preceding-season score fit","home_field_penalty":2,"logistic_penalty":0.01,"margin_penalty":12,"refit":"Monday 00:00 UTC","season_weight":0.65,"start_buffer_hours":24,"total_penalty":24,"version":"football-weekly-experiment-v1"},"source_edition":"2026-09-12T13:29:53.576737Z","sources":[{"attribution":{"changes":"Normalized records, aggregated statistics, and independent Silvermine model estimates.","license":"CC BY 4.0 (dataset license stated in publisher README)","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","name":"SportsDataverse","upstream":"ESPN / CollegeFootballData via SportsDataverse; no direct source scraping.","url":"https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data"},"dataset":"schedule","etag":"\"0x8DF0D2AA6BFC909\"","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T00:21:03.754506Z","last_modified":"Mon, 07 Sep 2026 21:54:54 GMT","season":2022,"sha256":"876f432b4e5f1208ce6b360103fa8bb20d1941d0a64fae9ba1d14d7a0d8859c5","url":"https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/cfb_schedules/cfb_schedules_2022.csv.gz"},{"attribution":{"changes":"Normalized records, aggregated statistics, and independent Silvermine model estimates.","license":"CC BY 4.0 (dataset license stated in publisher README)","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","name":"SportsDataverse","upstream":"ESPN / CollegeFootballData via SportsDataverse; no direct source scraping.","url":"https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data"},"dataset":"schedule","etag":"\"0x8DF0D2E96BA292F\"","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T00:21:06.568570Z","last_modified":"Mon, 07 Sep 2026 22:23:05 GMT","season":2023,"sha256":"9ca9c60866b037ee6c9643f13d715fe135a2b052a12b43e76dc6bc7dd4dd1f38","url":"https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/cfb_schedules/cfb_schedules_2023.csv.gz"},{"attribution":{"changes":"Normalized records, aggregated statistics, and independent Silvermine model estimates.","license":"CC BY 4.0 (dataset license stated in publisher README)","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","name":"SportsDataverse","upstream":"ESPN / CollegeFootballData via SportsDataverse; no direct source scraping.","url":"https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data"},"dataset":"schedule","etag":"\"0x8DF0D32CA4DEE09\"","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T00:21:09.559806Z","last_modified":"Mon, 07 Sep 2026 22:53:10 GMT","season":2024,"sha256":"73a60382c1dc3fc05d691f61691b891d7ec1a7825daa01d71e962c1beceee26d","url":"https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/cfb_schedules/cfb_schedules_2024.csv.gz"},{"attribution":{"changes":"Normalized records, aggregated statistics, and independent Silvermine model estimates.","license":"CC BY 4.0 (dataset license stated in publisher README)","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","name":"SportsDataverse","upstream":"ESPN / CollegeFootballData via SportsDataverse; no direct source scraping.","url":"https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data"},"dataset":"schedule","etag":"\"0x8DF0D3722312579\"","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T00:21:12.578400Z","last_modified":"Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:24:15 GMT","season":2025,"sha256":"bc8fb0df43bf5e3b2f8a1973a78ca909901b4370e3a690cab6e2c62cf8290aca","url":"https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/cfb_schedules/cfb_schedules_2025.csv.gz"}]}