Stetson at West Florida
A pregame research note built from the stored 2026–27 forecast, its stored factors and the questions still waiting for film or roster confirmation.
Forecast edition basketball-efficiency-v2-ab7f181f3f19 · captured Sep 23, 2026
Stetson 67.8 · West Florida 80.2
Exploratory cold-start estimate: at least one program is outside the trained field, so the wider calibrated range is the primary context.
What this game analysis uses.
Read the forecast, historical workload, shot map and roster signals in separate columns. A model edition identifies the registered estimate; an internal receipt identifies the retained data edition. Missing or mismatched evidence stays visible as unavailable.
| Evidence | Coverage attached to this game | Edition / receipt | Captured / reviewed | How to learn from it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Published game scheduleUnavailable | Start time unconfirmed | Unavailable | — | The forecast remains available, but market checks stay withheld until the start is confirmed. Keep the canonical date separate from a confirmed source clock. |
| Forecast editionRegistered edition | basketball-efficiency-v2-ab7f181f3f19 | basketball-efficiency-v2-ab7f181f3f19 | Sep 23, 2026 | Use this ID and capture clock when comparing the forecast with a later result. |
| Team + player archiveUnavailable | Exact scouting edition unavailable | Unavailable | — | Historical workload describes the old sample; it does not establish current availability. |
| Shot coordinate archiveVerified source release | 3 exact joins · 775 matched attempts · 772 located | 411d4ea11dba7d6688d717e26b3a6807640ae7f3b615b054a775e6f814d5c672 | Sep 5, 2026 | Located attempts are a subset of matched attempts; missing coordinates stay missing. |
| Recruiting releaseVerified source release | 0/2 exact programs · 0 people · 0 reviewed sources | 6534ecd70b2b87befb22c2a5781c8b53dd9069e57a668d0409687c9f60d28a06 | Sep 21, 2026 | A dated announcement is evidence of an event, not proof of eligibility or a projected role. |
| Roster observationVerified source release | 26 listed rows · 2027 snapshot | ecf68bc15c3cb083dafa996b55b522bb578de7bf1f7aa5f1d99a726059da4774 | Sep 17, 2026 | Roster status is an observed listing label; it is not a lineup or eligibility ruling. |
This table documents provenance and joins. It does not turn a source listing into an availability decision, and it does not add a second forecast to the stored model.
How much has this model missed?
These held-out results describe the forecast system behind this notebook. They are a calibration reference for the range, not a guarantee about this game and not evidence of a market edge.
Training seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 · constant home-margin baseline MAE: 12.0 pts. The test season remains outside model fitting and calibration.
Turn the forecast into questions.
Read these in order before opening the deeper tables. Each row is arithmetic over the stored forecast, exact team ratings, matchup factors or matched roster scenario. It does not add a new model.
| Read | Finding | Stored evidence | Question to take to film |
|---|---|---|---|
| Step 1Start with the range | Both teams remain inside the 80% margin range | West Florida is the baseline side by 12.4 points; the stored home-margin range is -35.3 to +60.2. | Which early matchup signal would make you update away from the baseline? |
Missing rows mean the exact supporting record did not pass the notebook’s identity or numeric checks; absence is not scored as a neutral signal.
The numbers behind the estimate.
Latest completed-season team rates carried into this forecast edition. They describe the inputs and context; they are not a claim about a current lineup.
| Metric | Stetson | West Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Adj O | 102.7 | — |
| Adj D | 116.1 | — |
| NET | -13.5 | — |
| PACE | 67.6 | — |
| SOS | -4.1 | — |
| eFG% | 53.8% | — |
| TO% | 18.3% | — |
| ORB% | 28.2% | — |
| FTR | 32.7% | — |
No same-edition roster continuity scenario is available for this game.
What do the last five show?
Season and last-five observations come from the same retained team profiles. They are descriptive samples for film review; they are not a trend claim, a cause, or a replacement for the stored forecast baseline.
The two exact-team profiles do not share a valid scouting edition and model identity, so the recent-form comparison is withheld.
Who carried the old possessions?
The three highest-minute contributors in the latest completed season. These rows preserve recorded production for preparation; they are not a projected rotation or an availability decision.
What should the staff test first?
These role signals come from the same completed-season player records. Each question is attached to a recorded workload or rate field; missing denominators remain unavailable.
| Program / player | Recorded role signals | Film question |
|---|---|---|
| Ethan CopelandStetson · G | Usage 22.2%Team minutes 79.9%A/TO 1.553PA 254.0 | How does the defense force this high-usage role into lower-value decisions? |
| Jake JohnsonStetson · G | Usage 17.3%Team minutes 70.7%A/TO 1.443PA 159.0 | How does the defense force this high-usage role into lower-value decisions? |
| Calvin Sirmans IIIStetson · G | Usage 17.3%Team minutes 58.6%A/TO 2.603PA 69.0 | How does the defense force this high-usage role into lower-value decisions? |
Stetson
| Player | MIN | MPG | PPG | APG | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan CopelandG | 1,059 | 32.1 | 15.0 | 2.1 | 60.2% |
| Jake JohnsonG | 908 | 28.4 | 9.2 | 1.4 | 54.6% |
| Calvin Sirmans IIIG | 753 | 23.5 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 48.9% |
West Florida
No qualifying historical player rows are available for this team.
Turn the factor edge into a film drill.
These links join the historical workload table to the retained national coordinate archive by exact player and team ID. The questions use recorded attempt denominators to choose film; they do not predict a current rotation or treat an archived shot map as availability.
| Program / player | Recorded shot evidence | Preparation question | Drill-down |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan CopelandStetson · G | 381 matched attempts · 378 with retained coordinates · 33 gamesExact archive name | 67% of recorded attempts are threes. How will the defense change the closeout without giving up the next action? | View court map ↗ |
| Jake JohnsonStetson · G | 233 matched attempts · 233 with retained coordinates · 32 gamesExact archive name | 68% of recorded attempts are threes. How will the defense change the closeout without giving up the next action? | View court map ↗ |
| Calvin Sirmans IIIStetson · G | 161 matched attempts · 161 with retained coordinates · 31 gamesExact archive name | Where does the located sample cluster, and which coverage or transition rule should the staff test against those looks? | View court map ↗ |
Located coordinates are a subset of matched attempts; missing locations remain in the attempt denominator and are not imputed.
Who is listed today?
Exact-ID rows from the current roster snapshot, ordered by prior recorded minutes. Status is an observed listing label; it does not establish eligibility, availability, a commitment or a projected rotation.
| Program | Listed | Same program | Different program | New to dataset | Ambiguous / other | Prior stat profiles | Recorded prior minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StetsonOpen exact roster observations → | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 / 15 | 6,625 |
| West FloridaOpen exact roster observations → | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 / 11 | 0 |
Same-program, different-program and new-to-dataset are exact retained roster observations. Recorded prior minutes sum only valid attached stat profiles; they do not establish current availability, eligibility or role.
Where is prior experience attached?
Source positions group each current listing as guard, forward, center or unreported. Minutes belong to retained prior-season stat profiles and stay separated by same-program, different-program and other observation status. They are context for film review, not a projected rotation.
| Program | Source role | Listed | Prior profiles | Prior minutes | Same-program minutes | Different-program minutes | Other-status minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson | Guard | 10 | 10 | 4,119 | 4,119 | 0 | 0 |
| Stetson | Forward | 5 | 5 | 2,506 | 2,506 | 0 | 0 |
| Stetson | Center | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stetson | Unreported | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| West Florida | Guard | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| West Florida | Forward | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| West Florida | Center | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| West Florida | Unreported | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Roster season 2027 · receipt ecf68bc15c3cb083dafa996b55b522bb578de7bf1f7aa5f1d99a726059da4774 · captured Sep 17, 2026.
Stetson
| Player | Status | MIN | MPG | PPG | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan CopelandG | same program | 1,059 | 32.1 | 15.0 | 60.2% |
| Jake JohnsonG | same program | 908 | 28.4 | 9.2 | 54.6% |
| Calvin Sirmans IIIG | same program | 753 | 23.5 | 6.1 | 48.9% |
| Collin KuhlF | same program | 752 | 23.5 | 13.1 | 66.0% |
| Finley SheridanF | same program | 627 | 21.6 | 7.0 | 63.8% |
| Alex DoyleF | same program | 542 | 16.4 | 4.9 | 58.1% |
| Jamie Phillips Jr.G | same program | 521 | 30.6 | 16.0 | 55.3% |
| Matar DiopF | same program | 396 | 12.8 | 2.8 | 48.4% |
West Florida
| Player | Status | MIN | MPG | PPG | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon BurfordPG | new to dataset | — | — | — | — |
| Conor FlanaganG | new to dataset | — | — | — | — |
| Darrin JenkinsG | new to dataset | — | — | — | — |
| David Petit-HommeF | new to dataset | — | — | — | — |
| Jackson HenningfieldG | new to dataset | — | — | — | — |
| Kendall BynumPG | new to dataset | — | — | — | — |
| LaTrell TateG | new to dataset | — | — | — | — |
| Michael MaumbeF | new to dataset | — | — | — | — |
Variance belongs in the story.
The nominal home-margin range covers 95.5 points, so the forecast is a starting point for preparation rather than a script. Identify which lineup and shot-quality questions could move this game toward either edge.
Questions for the next check
- Which lineup combination gives the underdog its clearest path toward the top of the range?
- Can the projected favorite reproduce its best Four Factor possession against this opponent?
- Which current roster or availability source should be checked before publication?
Check the line beside this forecast.
The notebook refreshes the exact game and current forecast edition before showing any qualifying market comparison. A missing quote stays unavailable; no line or edge is inferred.
Checking the current forecast edition and its qualifying market observations…
Keep the evidence chain open.
- Confirm current availability and the expected rotation from a dated update.
- Use the roster and player archives to identify the personnel behind each factor.
- Read the interval before treating a close projection as a decisive edge.
Follow the record.
The schedule ID, model edition and captured forecast remain attached to this notebook. A missing market observation is unavailable evidence, not a zero.
No verified pregame market line is attached to this edition.