A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
41.8% · rank 31 of 366 · 32 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Western KY
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.157
+0.7 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
18–142025–26 recorded finals
105.9Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
105.2Adjusted defense · lower is better
71.4Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Western KY.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
18–1432 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 71.1Mean opponent adj. net 0.0 · 30 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
48.1%32 games · higher is betterRank 332 / 366 · 9th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
50.5%32 games · lower is betterRank 160 / 366 · 56th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
14.5%32 games · lower is betterRank 44 / 366 · 88th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
17.4%32 games · higher is betterRank 142 / 366 · 61th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
32.5%32 games · higher is betterRank 132 / 366 · 64th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
29.2%32 games · lower is betterRank 142 / 366 · 61th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
41.8%32 games · higher is betterRank 31 / 366 · 92th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
45.5%32 games · lower is betterRank 356 / 366 · 3th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 110.6 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 106.2 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 46.0% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 50.3% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.1% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.8% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 39.9% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 42.4% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 75.9% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 69.4% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 52.0% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 57.7% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,325 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnover rate
14.5% · rank 44 of 366 · 32 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Effective FG%
48.1% · rank 332 of 366 · 32 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
45.5% · rank 356 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; Western KY won 6. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 13, 2026 · neutral vs Kennesaw St · L 87–96 · offense 113.0 / defense 124.6
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw StMar 13, 2026 · neutral | L 87–96 | 159 | 113.0 | 124.6 | 77.0 | 53.6 | 18.2 | 29.4 |
| FIUMar 7, 2026 · road | L 67–92 | 229 | 91.5 | 125.7 | 73.2 | 43.0 | 16.4 | 22.0 |
| Missouri StMar 6, 2026 · road | L 74–87 | 186 | 111.3 | 130.9 | 66.5 | 44.8 | 9.0 | 35.1 |
| UTEPFeb 28, 2026 · home | W 97–65 | 230 | 134.7 | 90.2 | 72.0 | 67.6 | 12.5 | 16.7 |
| New Mexico StFeb 27, 2026 · home | W 93–70 | 169 | 117.8 | 88.7 | 78.9 | 60.2 | 11.4 | 11.4 |
| LibertyFeb 21, 2026 · road | W 94–73 | 96 | 135.5 | 105.3 | 69.4 | 61.0 | 13.0 | 34.5 |
| DelawareFeb 19, 2026 · road | W 88–87 | 251 | 126.7 | 125.3 | 61.7 | 55.3 | 13.0 | 30.3 |
| MTSUFeb 15, 2026 · home | W 82–80 | 164 | 116.0 | 113.2 | 70.7 | 57.4 | 19.8 | 21.4 |
| FIUFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 80–70 | 229 | 117.5 | 102.8 | 68.1 | 45.4 | 10.3 | 43.8 |
| Jax StateFeb 6, 2026 · home | L 66–71 | 173 | 92.2 | 99.2 | 71.6 | 36.3 | 14.0 | 27.3 |
| MTSUJan 31, 2026 · road | W 65–60 | 164 | 98.1 | 90.5 | 66.3 | 44.5 | 12.1 | 23.8 |
| Kennesaw StJan 29, 2026 · road | L 69–72 | 159 | 97.1 | 101.3 | 71.1 | 34.1 | 11.3 | 35.6 |
| Sam HoustonJan 24, 2026 · road | L 58–73 | 127 | 86.5 | 108.9 | 67.1 | 45.1 | 28.3 | 29.4 |
| LibertyJan 22, 2026 · home | L 69–76 | 96 | 106.6 | 117.4 | 64.7 | 50.9 | 20.1 | 33.3 |
| Kennesaw StJan 17, 2026 · home | L 65–81 | 159 | 89.8 | 112.0 | 72.4 | 36.8 | 11.1 | 27.5 |
| Missouri StJan 15, 2026 · home | W 87–72 | 186 | 131.5 | 108.9 | 66.1 | 57.3 | 12.1 | 37.9 |
| UTEPJan 10, 2026 · road | W 68–56 | 230 | 100.1 | 82.4 | 68.0 | 43.0 | 14.7 | 38.6 |
| New Mexico StJan 9, 2026 · road | L 64–80 | 169 | 96.9 | 121.1 | 66.0 | 34.6 | 7.6 | 36.0 |
| Louisiana TechJan 4, 2026 · home | W 66–61 | 156 | 101.6 | 93.9 | 65.0 | 43.4 | 15.4 | 27.5 |
| Sam HoustonJan 2, 2026 · home | W 102–91 | 127 | 131.7 | 117.5 | 77.4 | 55.4 | 16.8 | 48.9 |
| Jax StateDec 30, 2025 · road | L 67–78 | 173 | 97.5 | 113.5 | 68.8 | 36.8 | 16.0 | 44.4 |
| TulsaDec 20, 2025 · home | L 81–82 | 116 | 114.4 | 115.8 | 70.8 | 50.8 | 11.3 | 27.0 |
| CampbellsvilleDec 16, 2025 · home | W 102–59 | Unrated | 142.9 | 82.7 | 71.4 | 60.3 | 11.2 | 42.9 |
| MarshallDec 11, 2025 · road | L 61–77 | 172 | 89.0 | 112.3 | 68.6 | 35.4 | 16.0 | 34.0 |
| EvansvilleDec 6, 2025 · home | W 80–79 | 302 | 109.7 | 108.3 | 72.9 | 50.8 | 19.2 | 37.8 |
| Wichita StNov 29, 2025 · neutral | W 75–70 | 92 | 117.9 | 110.0 | 63.6 | 48.3 | 11.0 | 31.6 |
| South FloridaNov 27, 2025 · neutral | L 91–97 | 76 | 99.6 | 106.2 | 81.2 | 52.2 | 20.8 | 23.3 |
| VanderbiltNov 26, 2025 · neutral | L 78–83 | 29 | 96.7 | 102.9 | 80.6 | 43.5 | 21.1 | 31.8 |
| Bethel (TN)Nov 19, 2025 · home | W 97–67 | Unrated | 125.3 | 86.5 | 77.4 | 52.4 | 16.8 | 43.9 |
| Tennessee StNov 16, 2025 · home | W 95–82 | 204 | 123.9 | 106.9 | 76.7 | 56.3 | 11.7 | 33.3 |
| E KentuckyNov 11, 2025 · road | W 87–79 | 256 | 115.4 | 104.8 | 75.4 | 49.3 | 4.0 | 27.9 |
| Tennessee TechNov 4, 2025 · home | W 82–70 | 315 | 107.7 | 91.9 | 76.2 | 43.5 | 14.4 | 33.3 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant NewellF | 32 | 25.9 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 54.1 | 24.1% | 32 | 1.0032 games | 16232 games |
| Teagan MooreG | 27 | 29.3 | 18.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 64.5 | 26.3% | 27 | 1.1527 games | 7027 games |
| Ryan MyersG | 32 | 22.5 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 57.8 | 22.6% | 32 | 1.4632 games | 18032 games |
| Armelo BooneG | 29 | 24.5 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 44.6 | 27.0% | 29 | 1.1629 games | 8629 games |
| LJ HackmanG | 32 | 21.6 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 52.3 | 20.4% | 32 | 1.5032 games | 7232 games |
| Terrion MurdixG | 24 | 23.9 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 43.6 | 16.4% | 24 | 2.4124 games | 1124 games |
| Blaise KeitaF | 31 | 12.9 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 54.5 | 10.3% | 31 | 0.7931 games | 031 games |
| Cam HaffnerG | 27 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 49.5 | 17.2% | 27 | 1.5627 games | 9827 games |
| Leeroy OdiahiF | 30 | 10.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 70.1 | 9.0% | 30 | 0.1730 games | 030 games |
| Kade UnseldG | 22 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 43.0 | 17.4% | 22 | 1.0022 games | 7522 games |
| Noah BoydeF | 23 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 47.2 | 13.3% | 23 | 0.5023 games | 023 games |
| Jack EdelenG | 28 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 35.6 | 13.7% | 28 | 2.0028 games | 1928 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Western KY?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
15Source-listed players
14Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
87%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 4,418 | 4,418 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 5 | 1,203 | 1,203 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (5,621 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
15 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teagan Moore →G | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 29.3 | 18.7 | 64.5% |
| Ryan Myers →G | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 22.5 | 11.0 | 57.8% |
| Armelo Boone →G | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 24.5 | 10.9 | 44.6% |
| LJ Hackman →G | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 21.6 | 8.5 | 52.3% |
| Terrion Murdix →G | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 23.9 | 5.6 | 43.6% |
| Blaise Keita →F | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 12.9 | 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Cam Haffner →G | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 13.0 | 4.5 | 49.5% |
| Leeroy Odiahi →F | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 10.1 | 2.1 | 70.1% |
| Kade Unseld →G | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 11.7 | 3.4 | 43.0% |
| Noah Boyde →F | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 11.1 | 2.5 | 47.2% |
| Jack Edelen →G | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 7.7 | 1.2 | 35.6% |
| Bryant Selebangue →F | Same programWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers | 18.4 | 7.2 | 58.1% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Western KY vs Kennesaw St
77.1Western KY
80.8Kennesaw St
Kennesaw St win estimate63.6%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin3.6
Projected total157.9
80% home-margin range-12.3 to 19.5
Estimated possessions74.5
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.4 pts
Kennesaw St attack 50.9% · Western KY defense 50.2%Western KY attack 49.4% · Kennesaw St defense 50.1%
Ball securityAway 1.2 pts
Kennesaw St attack 17.5% · Western KY defense 17.3%Western KY attack 15.6% · Kennesaw St defense 16.6%
Second chancesHome 4.5 pts
Kennesaw St attack 32.0% · Western KY defense 28.4%Western KY attack 28.2% · Kennesaw St defense 29.1%
Free-throw pressureHome 7.9 pts
Kennesaw St attack 40.2% · Western KY defense 40.9%Western KY attack 35.4% · Kennesaw St defense 44.1%
VyStar Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Western KY vs Jax State
71.0Western KY
73.3Jax State
Jax State win estimate60.3%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin2.3
Projected total144.3
80% home-margin range-13.6 to 18.3
Estimated possessions69.2
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.0 pts
Jax State attack 50.1% · Western KY defense 50.2%Western KY attack 49.4% · Jax State defense 50.5%
Ball securityAway 0.5 pts
Jax State attack 17.3% · Western KY defense 17.3%Western KY attack 15.6% · Jax State defense 16.1%
Second chancesHome 0.8 pts
Jax State attack 30.4% · Western KY defense 28.4%Western KY attack 28.2% · Jax State defense 27.0%
Free-throw pressureAway 4.4 pts
Jax State attack 37.2% · Western KY defense 40.9%Western KY attack 35.4% · Jax State defense 34.8%
Pete Mathews Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
New Mexico St vs Western KY
71.5New Mexico St
75.9Western KY
Western KY win estimate65.6%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin4.4
Projected total147.4
80% home-margin range-11.5 to 20.3
Estimated possessions70.3
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.6 pts
Western KY attack 49.4% · New Mexico St defense 49.5%New Mexico St attack 48.5% · Western KY defense 50.2%
Ball securityAway 1.8 pts
Western KY attack 15.6% · New Mexico St defense 15.5%New Mexico St attack 15.6% · Western KY defense 17.3%
Second chancesAway 3.3 pts
Western KY attack 28.2% · New Mexico St defense 28.9%New Mexico St attack 31.0% · Western KY defense 28.4%
Free-throw pressureHome 0.5 pts
Western KY attack 35.4% · New Mexico St defense 41.6%New Mexico St attack 34.3% · Western KY defense 40.9%
E.A. Diddle Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →