A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
38.6% · rank 81 of 366 · 33 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Murray St
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.130
+2.9 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
20–132025–26 recorded finals
111.1Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
108.2Adjusted defense · lower is better
69.4Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Murray St.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
20–1333 recorded games · 33 paired efficiency samples · pace 72.3Mean opponent adj. net 1.3 · 33 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
53.8%33 games · higher is betterRank 84 / 366 · 77th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
52.4%33 games · lower is betterRank 265 / 366 · 28th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.3%33 games · lower is betterRank 161 / 366 · 56th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
15.8%33 games · higher is betterRank 251 / 366 · 32th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
32.6%33 games · higher is betterRank 123 / 366 · 67th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
31.3%33 games · lower is betterRank 250 / 366 · 32th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
38.6%33 games · higher is betterRank 81 / 366 · 78th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
32.2%33 games · lower is betterRank 119 / 366 · 68th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 115.0 | 33 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 111.0 | 33 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 55.0% | 33 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.7% | 33 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 35.0% | 33 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 36.2% | 33 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 44.8% | 33 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 27.4% | 33 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 75.5% | 33 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 71.8% | 33 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 49.1% | 33 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 44.1% | 33 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,401 source possession rows across 33 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Effective FG%
53.8% · rank 84 of 366 · 33 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Turnovers forced
15.8% · rank 251 of 366 · 33 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
A closer look
Opponent effective FG%
52.4% · rank 265 of 366 · 33 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 8 times in the selected window; Murray St won 5. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 19, 2026 · road vs Nevada · L 75–89 · offense 103.8 / defense 123.2
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 33 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NevadaMar 19, 2026 · road | L 75–89 | 59 | 103.8 | 123.2 | 72.2 | 56.8 | 20.8 | 20.0 |
| UICMar 6, 2026 · neutral | L 79–92 | 138 | 100.1 | 116.6 | 78.9 | 41.3 | 8.9 | 24.4 |
| BradleyMar 1, 2026 · road | L 78–87 | 98 | 116.0 | 129.4 | 67.2 | 50.0 | 10.4 | 30.8 |
| EvansvilleFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 88–75 | 302 | 122.1 | 104.0 | 72.1 | 53.3 | 11.1 | 27.3 |
| Illinois StFeb 19, 2026 · road | L 61–78 | 112 | 93.9 | 120.1 | 64.9 | 46.5 | 18.5 | 32.4 |
| BelmontFeb 15, 2026 · home | L 70–87 | 86 | 95.6 | 118.8 | 73.2 | 47.5 | 20.5 | 31.7 |
| Indiana StFeb 13, 2026 · road | W 74–72 | 140 | 114.0 | 110.9 | 64.9 | 54.6 | 21.6 | 45.2 |
| Northern IowaFeb 10, 2026 · home | L 60–89 | 87 | 91.8 | 136.2 | 65.4 | 43.4 | 13.8 | 21.6 |
| S IllinoisFeb 7, 2026 · road | W 91–81 | 124 | 124.4 | 110.8 | 73.1 | 69.6 | 20.5 | 20.8 |
| UICFeb 4, 2026 · home | W 81–74 | 138 | 107.8 | 98.5 | 75.1 | 54.2 | 21.3 | 31.6 |
| BelmontFeb 1, 2026 · road | L 86–103 | 86 | 121.8 | 145.9 | 70.6 | 52.5 | 18.4 | 47.1 |
| Illinois StJan 29, 2026 · home | L 65–70 | 112 | 94.4 | 101.7 | 68.9 | 41.7 | 11.6 | 18.4 |
| Northern IowaJan 24, 2026 · road | L 76–81 | 87 | 114.7 | 122.3 | 66.2 | 47.6 | 13.6 | 35.9 |
| DrakeJan 22, 2026 · road | L 90–101 | 109 | 109.9 | 123.4 | 81.9 | 50.7 | 13.4 | 24.4 |
| Indiana StJan 17, 2026 · home | W 85–81 | 140 | 118.0 | 112.5 | 72.0 | 55.6 | 15.3 | 36.1 |
| ValparaisoJan 10, 2026 · home | W 92–79 | 191 | 123.2 | 105.8 | 74.7 | 56.9 | 14.7 | 32.4 |
| EvansvilleJan 8, 2026 · road | W 79–69 | 302 | 110.6 | 96.6 | 71.4 | 51.7 | 12.6 | 27.0 |
| BradleyJan 4, 2026 · home | W 86–66 | 98 | 125.3 | 96.2 | 68.6 | 61.9 | 17.5 | 31.0 |
| UICJan 2, 2026 · road | W 81–77 | 138 | 110.4 | 104.9 | 73.4 | 46.3 | 19.1 | 42.9 |
| S IllinoisDec 30, 2025 · home | W 84–81 | 124 | 112.7 | 108.7 | 74.5 | 59.6 | 18.8 | 22.6 |
| ValparaisoDec 21, 2025 · road | W 85–79 | 191 | 118.5 | 110.2 | 71.7 | 54.4 | 15.3 | 30.3 |
| DrakeDec 19, 2025 · home | W 81–72 | 109 | 121.2 | 107.7 | 66.8 | 48.2 | 7.5 | 32.4 |
| AkronDec 13, 2025 · neutral | W 115–100 | 75 | 139.6 | 121.4 | 82.4 | 71.0 | 21.9 | 44.1 |
| BellarmineDec 6, 2025 · home | W 81–68 | 317 | 123.8 | 104.0 | 65.4 | 62.3 | 19.9 | 38.5 |
| Morehead StDec 3, 2025 · home | W 84–52 | 276 | 124.9 | 77.3 | 67.3 | 50.8 | 16.4 | 47.5 |
| G WashingtonNov 26, 2025 · neutral | W 96–95 | 110 | 132.7 | 131.3 | 72.4 | 60.3 | 13.8 | 44.4 |
| McNeeseNov 25, 2025 · neutral | L 60–73 | 70 | 80.9 | 98.4 | 74.2 | 39.5 | 27.0 | 35.7 |
| MTSUNov 24, 2025 · neutral | L 87–90 | 164 | 115.0 | 118.9 | 75.7 | 54.0 | 10.6 | 21.6 |
| Little RockNov 19, 2025 · home | W 89–68 | 275 | 134.3 | 102.6 | 66.3 | 63.2 | 13.6 | 36.7 |
| NichollsNov 15, 2025 · home | W 99–79 | 235 | 130.8 | 104.3 | 75.7 | 69.8 | 26.4 | 52.2 |
| SMUNov 12, 2025 · road | L 91–102 | 51 | 111.9 | 125.4 | 81.3 | 58.9 | 18.4 | 24.2 |
| Miss Valley StNov 8, 2025 · home | W 108–60 | 365 | 139.5 | 77.5 | 77.4 | 57.6 | 6.5 | 41.3 |
| OmahaNov 3, 2025 · neutral | W 85–77 | 238 | 107.4 | 97.3 | 79.1 | 46.6 | 17.7 | 28.6 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon JacksonG | 33 | 25.6 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 54.6 | 32.6% | 33 | 1.2033 games | 14933 games |
| Roman DomonG | 33 | 25.3 | 14.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 62.5 | 24.9% | 33 | 0.9633 games | 11433 games |
| Fred KingC | 32 | 24.7 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 0.8 | 65.7 | 23.2% | 32 | 0.4132 games | 1132 games |
| Layne TaylorG | 31 | 24.7 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 55.1 | 15.8% | 31 | 3.3331 games | 14231 games |
| Mason MillerF | 32 | 22.8 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 58.5 | 11.5% | 32 | 1.0032 games | 12032 games |
| JJ TraynorF | 32 | 22.6 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 55.5 | 16.6% | 32 | 0.6132 games | 7532 games |
| KJ TennerG | 33 | 16.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 56.8 | 17.8% | 33 | 2.4333 games | 4733 games |
| Mathis CourbonG | 32 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 59.3 | 14.3% | 32 | 1.4432 games | 4932 games |
| Brayden ShorterG | 33 | 14.6 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 50.2 | 20.2% | 33 | 0.9433 games | 15533 games |
| Dylan AndersonC | 31 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 44.3 | 14.8% | 31 | 0.8131 games | 2531 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Murray St?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
15Source-listed players
11Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 3,981 | 3,981 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 3 | 1,616 | 1,616 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 2 | 1,003 | 1,003 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,600 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
15 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Jackson →G | Same programMurray State Racers | 25.6 | 16.5 | 54.6% |
| Roman Domon →G | Same programMurray State Racers | 25.3 | 14.2 | 62.5% |
| Fred King →C | Same programMurray State Racers | 24.7 | 13.1 | 65.7% |
| Layne Taylor →G | Same programMurray State Racers | 24.7 | 8.0 | 55.1% |
| Mason Miller →F | Same programMurray State Racers | 22.8 | 5.9 | 58.5% |
| JJ Traynor →F | Same programMurray State Racers | 22.6 | 7.4 | 55.5% |
| KJ Tenner →G | Same programMurray State Racers | 16.5 | 6.0 | 56.8% |
| Mathis Courbon →G | Same programMurray State Racers | 15.8 | 4.6 | 59.3% |
| Brayden Shorter →G | Same programMurray State Racers | 14.6 | 5.7 | 50.2% |
| Dylan Anderson →C | Same programMurray State Racers | 6.8 | 1.5 | 44.3% |
| Brock Vice →F | Same programMurray State Racers | 5.6 | 2.0 | 67.7% |
| Ben Shtolzberg →G | No prior appearance observedNo prior program listed | — | — | — |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Murray St vs Tennessee St
80.9Murray St
76.5Tennessee St
Tennessee St win estimate42.0%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-4.4
Projected total157.5
80% home-margin range-20.4 to 11.5
Estimated possessions71.8
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 1.4 pts
Tennessee St attack 50.4% · Murray St defense 51.7%Murray St attack 51.9% · Tennessee St defense 51.7%
Ball securityAway 3.5 pts
Tennessee St attack 18.1% · Murray St defense 16.6%Murray St attack 16.2% · Tennessee St defense 18.2%
Second chancesHome 1.6 pts
Tennessee St attack 31.1% · Murray St defense 29.6%Murray St attack 30.4% · Tennessee St defense 30.5%
Free-throw pressureHome 6.4 pts
Tennessee St attack 36.1% · Murray St defense 32.9%Murray St attack 37.7% · Tennessee St defense 40.9%
Gentry Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →