A relative strength
Offensive rebound rate
36.8% · rank 22 of 366 · 35 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
UIC
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.138
+2.1 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
19–162025–26 recorded finals
106.7Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
104.7Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.4Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on UIC.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
19–1635 recorded games · 35 paired efficiency samples · pace 67.3Mean opponent adj. net 1.5 · 33 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
50.8%35 games · higher is betterRank 231 / 366 · 37th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
50.5%35 games · lower is betterRank 159 / 366 · 57th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
17.6%35 games · lower is betterRank 254 / 366 · 31th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
20.1%35 games · higher is betterRank 30 / 366 · 92th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
36.8%35 games · higher is betterRank 22 / 366 · 94th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
31.1%35 games · lower is betterRank 245 / 366 · 33th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
36.1%35 games · higher is betterRank 151 / 366 · 59th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
32.7%35 games · lower is betterRank 136 / 366 · 63th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 110.5 | 35 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 103.3 | 35 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 52.1% | 35 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 50.7% | 35 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 32.1% | 35 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.5% | 35 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 32.4% | 35 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 46.0% | 35 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 72.9% | 35 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 74.4% | 35 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 54.6% | 35 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 66.1% | 35 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,400 source possession rows across 35 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnovers forced
20.1% · rank 30 of 366 · 35 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
A closer look
Opponent offensive rebound rate
31.1% · rank 245 of 366 · 35 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
A closer look
Turnover rate
17.6% · rank 254 of 366 · 35 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 9 times in the selected window; UIC won 4. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 19, 2026 · road vs California · L 73–91 · offense 102.6 / defense 127.9
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 35 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CaliforniaMar 19, 2026 · road | L 73–91 | 104 | 102.6 | 127.9 | 71.2 | 54.4 | 19.7 | 27.6 |
| Northern IowaMar 8, 2026 · neutral | L 69–84 | 87 | 116.5 | 141.8 | 59.2 | 48.4 | 8.4 | 38.7 |
| DrakeMar 7, 2026 · neutral | W 72–51 | 109 | 115.9 | 82.1 | 62.1 | 52.7 | 12.9 | 36.7 |
| Murray StMar 6, 2026 · neutral | W 92–79 | 130 | 116.6 | 100.1 | 78.9 | 57.1 | 16.5 | 33.3 |
| Indiana StMar 1, 2026 · road | L 63–79 | 140 | 93.3 | 117.0 | 67.5 | 40.0 | 22.2 | 40.5 |
| BradleyFeb 25, 2026 · home | W 93–86 | 98 | 118.8 | 109.8 | 62.6 | 61.2 | 15.3 | 21.9 |
| ValparaisoFeb 21, 2026 · home | L 67–71 | 191 | 104.3 | 110.6 | 64.2 | 50.0 | 18.7 | 35.3 |
| EvansvilleFeb 19, 2026 · road | W 84–46 | 302 | 130.1 | 71.2 | 64.6 | 66.7 | 23.2 | 41.4 |
| Illinois StFeb 15, 2026 · home | W 83–56 | 112 | 114.0 | 76.9 | 72.8 | 57.2 | 16.5 | 39.4 |
| DrakeFeb 13, 2026 · road | W 80–70 | 109 | 122.0 | 106.7 | 65.6 | 50.8 | 10.7 | 33.3 |
| BelmontFeb 7, 2026 · home | L 62–68 | 86 | 97.9 | 107.4 | 63.3 | 45.4 | 17.4 | 35.3 |
| Murray StFeb 4, 2026 · road | L 74–81 | 130 | 98.5 | 107.8 | 75.1 | 46.0 | 16.0 | 26.7 |
| S IllinoisFeb 1, 2026 · road | W 68–66 | 124 | 103.2 | 100.2 | 65.9 | 42.7 | 25.8 | 48.6 |
| Indiana StJan 28, 2026 · home | W 76–74 | 140 | 112.3 | 109.4 | 67.7 | 51.7 | 16.3 | 36.4 |
| BradleyJan 25, 2026 · road | W 85–70 | 98 | 129.7 | 106.8 | 65.5 | 60.0 | 15.3 | 34.4 |
| EvansvilleJan 21, 2026 · home | W 76–49 | 302 | 113.3 | 73.0 | 67.1 | 53.3 | 13.4 | 33.3 |
| DrakeJan 17, 2026 · home | W 74–67 | 109 | 111.6 | 101.1 | 66.3 | 49.0 | 13.6 | 35.1 |
| Northern IowaJan 14, 2026 · road | W 69–61 | 87 | 110.3 | 97.5 | 62.6 | 55.7 | 9.6 | 17.2 |
| Illinois StJan 10, 2026 · road | W 63–59 | 112 | 90.9 | 85.1 | 61.6 | 43.4 | 21.6 | 33.3 |
| S IllinoisJan 8, 2026 · home | W 70–57 | 124 | 108.2 | 88.1 | 64.7 | 46.7 | 13.9 | 40.5 |
| ValparaisoJan 4, 2026 · road | L 59–66 | 191 | 95.1 | 106.4 | 62.0 | 50.0 | 25.8 | 34.5 |
| Murray StJan 2, 2026 · home | L 77–81 | 130 | 104.9 | 110.4 | 73.4 | 43.8 | 20.4 | 43.9 |
| Illinois TechDec 29, 2025 · home | W 102–64 | Unrated | 140.6 | 88.2 | 72.6 | 61.3 | 15.2 | 48.3 |
| CharlotteDec 21, 2025 · road | L 76–88 | 181 | 106.6 | 123.4 | 63.4 | 47.7 | 18.2 | 37.2 |
| Northern IowaDec 17, 2025 · home | L 54–60 | 87 | 88.2 | 98.0 | 61.2 | 39.2 | 14.7 | 30.8 |
| BelmontDec 13, 2025 · road | L 84–87 | 86 | 131.6 | 136.3 | 63.8 | 54.6 | 12.5 | 41.7 |
| YaleDec 7, 2025 · road | L 66–80 | 62 | 101.2 | 122.7 | 65.2 | 39.2 | 12.3 | 36.4 |
| AR-Pine BluffDec 3, 2025 · home | L 62–63 | 357 | 86.0 | 87.4 | 72.1 | 36.5 | 23.6 | 39.5 |
| Robert MorrisNov 26, 2025 · road | L 74–88 | 166 | 109.4 | 130.1 | 67.6 | 45.1 | 17.7 | 46.7 |
| So IndianaNov 22, 2025 · neutral | W 84–73 | 338 | 114.1 | 99.2 | 73.6 | 51.9 | 19.0 | 35.5 |
| High PointNov 20, 2025 · neutral | L 80–90 | 80 | 109.6 | 123.3 | 73.0 | 53.4 | 24.7 | 48.5 |
| Chicago StNov 15, 2025 · road | W 67–63 | 360 | 105.6 | 99.3 | 63.5 | 46.0 | 22.1 | 43.3 |
| St Francis ILNov 12, 2025 · home | W 98–55 | Unrated | 138.5 | 77.7 | 70.8 | 71.4 | 19.8 | 50.0 |
| Oregon StNov 8, 2025 · road | L 73–76 | 139 | 105.9 | 110.3 | 68.9 | 50.0 | 20.3 | 30.3 |
| Detroit MercyNov 4, 2025 · home | W 91–71 | 294 | 114.8 | 89.5 | 79.3 | 54.5 | 20.2 | 32.4 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy JohnsonG | 35 | 28.7 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 53.7 | 20.5% | 35 | 1.2835 games | 15535 games |
| Mekhi LoweryG | 35 | 26.1 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 53.5 | 17.4% | 35 | 1.4035 games | 035 games |
| Abdul MomohF | 35 | 23.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 59.9 | 16.5% | 35 | 0.8935 games | 035 games |
| Rashund Washington Jr.G | 35 | 23.0 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 61.4 | 17.8% | 35 | 0.6035 games | 8335 games |
| Ahmad Henderson IIG | 35 | 21.3 | 12.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 52.7 | 30.8% | 35 | 1.2335 games | 14735 games |
| Sam SilversteinG | 35 | 21.3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 48.7 | 9.1% | 35 | 1.8835 games | 1035 games |
| Jayce NathanielF | 35 | 19.8 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 48.9 | 17.7% | 35 | 1.3835 games | 5435 games |
| Elijah CrawfordG | 23 | 25.9 | 14.1 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 53.0 | 31.6% | 23 | 1.9223 games | 7623 games |
| Josiah HammonsG | 34 | 14.6 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 57.9 | 20.2% | 34 | 1.0734 games | 14034 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around UIC?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
16Source-listed players
12Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 11 | 5,401 | 5,401 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 4 | 1,699 | 1,699 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
1 listed player have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (7,100 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
16 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Johnson →G | Same programUIC Flames | 28.7 | 11.2 | 53.7% |
| Mekhi Lowery →G | Same programUIC Flames | 26.1 | 8.1 | 53.5% |
| Abdul Momoh →F | Same programUIC Flames | 23.3 | 7.9 | 59.9% |
| Rashund Washington Jr. →G | Same programUIC Flames | 23.0 | 8.7 | 61.4% |
| Ahmad Henderson II →G | Same programUIC Flames | 21.3 | 12.0 | 52.7% |
| Sam Silverstein →G | Same programUIC Flames | 21.3 | 2.8 | 48.7% |
| Jayce Nathaniel →F | Same programUIC Flames | 19.8 | 6.2 | 48.9% |
| Elijah Crawford →G | Same programUIC Flames | 25.9 | 14.1 | 53.0% |
| Josiah Hammons →G | Same programUIC Flames | 14.6 | 6.4 | 57.9% |
| Ante Beljan →F | Same programUIC Flames | 7.4 | 3.5 | 63.6% |
| Tai Walters-Whitaker →G | Same programUIC Flames | 5.4 | 0.8 | 30.6% |
| Carlos Harris III →G | Same programUIC Flames | 6.7 | 1.3 | 66.7% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Miami OH vs UIC
74.2Miami OH
76.0UIC
UIC win estimate58.7%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin1.7
Projected total150.2
80% home-margin range-14.2 to 17.7
Estimated possessions69.8
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 5.1 pts
UIC attack 50.6% · Miami OH defense 51.6%Miami OH attack 54.4% · UIC defense 50.3%
Ball securityAway 1.8 pts
UIC attack 17.6% · Miami OH defense 17.9%Miami OH attack 16.3% · UIC defense 18.4%
Second chancesHome 7.0 pts
UIC attack 31.2% · Miami OH defense 29.7%Miami OH attack 25.7% · UIC defense 31.2%
Free-throw pressureHome 2.1 pts
UIC attack 35.3% · Miami OH defense 32.8%Miami OH attack 34.7% · UIC defense 34.2%
Credit Union 1 Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →