A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
27.0% · rank 49 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
S Illinois
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.124
+3.7 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
16–162025–26 recorded finals
105.2Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
101.5Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.6Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on S Illinois.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
16–1632 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 69.8Mean opponent adj. net 2.3 · 31 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
49.3%32 games · higher is betterRank 299 / 366 · 18th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
48.5%32 games · lower is betterRank 62 / 366 · 83th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
17.0%32 games · lower is betterRank 211 / 366 · 42th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
18.8%32 games · higher is betterRank 76 / 366 · 79th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
31.2%32 games · higher is betterRank 182 / 366 · 50th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
27.0%32 games · lower is betterRank 49 / 366 · 87th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
31.5%32 games · higher is betterRank 268 / 366 · 27th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
31.4%32 games · lower is betterRank 102 / 366 · 72th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 103.4 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 98.5 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 52.6% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 50.9% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 27.8% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 30.2% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 29.6% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 41.5% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 67.9% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 68.6% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 49.2% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 52.0% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,269 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent effective FG%
48.5% · rank 62 of 366 · 32 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
31.5% · rank 268 of 366 · 32 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
A closer look
Effective FG%
49.3% · rank 299 of 366 · 32 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 13 times in the selected window; S Illinois won 6. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 5, 2026 · neutral vs Drake · L 63–67 · offense 97.8 / defense 104.0
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DrakeMar 5, 2026 · neutral | L 63–67 | 109 | 97.8 | 104.0 | 64.4 | 42.3 | 15.5 | 48.8 |
| EvansvilleMar 1, 2026 · road | W 81–67 | 302 | 126.8 | 104.9 | 63.9 | 53.9 | 9.4 | 37.1 |
| Indiana StFeb 26, 2026 · home | W 66–55 | 140 | 93.4 | 77.8 | 70.7 | 40.6 | 11.3 | 23.1 |
| Northern IowaFeb 21, 2026 · road | W 59–57 | 87 | 96.2 | 92.9 | 61.4 | 56.9 | 29.3 | 34.6 |
| DrakeFeb 19, 2026 · road | W 66–61 | 109 | 93.5 | 86.4 | 70.6 | 42.4 | 17.0 | 31.3 |
| BradleyFeb 15, 2026 · home | L 60–70 | 98 | 86.8 | 101.2 | 69.2 | 36.7 | 14.5 | 23.7 |
| EvansvilleFeb 13, 2026 · home | W 86–60 | 302 | 126.4 | 88.2 | 68.1 | 59.2 | 16.2 | 43.3 |
| Indiana StFeb 10, 2026 · road | W 80–65 | 140 | 107.2 | 87.1 | 74.7 | 50.0 | 16.1 | 35.0 |
| Murray StFeb 7, 2026 · home | L 81–91 | 130 | 110.8 | 124.4 | 73.1 | 48.5 | 9.6 | 27.0 |
| Illinois StFeb 4, 2026 · road | W 54–50 | 112 | 79.5 | 73.6 | 67.9 | 41.3 | 22.1 | 20.6 |
| UICFeb 1, 2026 · home | L 66–68 | 138 | 100.2 | 103.2 | 65.9 | 50.0 | 15.2 | 16.1 |
| Northern IowaJan 29, 2026 · home | W 65–50 | 87 | 99.1 | 76.2 | 65.6 | 52.8 | 15.2 | 23.5 |
| ValparaisoJan 22, 2026 · road | L 63–69 | 191 | 98.8 | 108.2 | 63.8 | 44.1 | 17.3 | 30.8 |
| BelmontJan 18, 2026 · home | L 68–73 | 86 | 98.2 | 105.5 | 69.2 | 44.0 | 17.3 | 26.3 |
| DrakeJan 15, 2026 · home | L 73–76 | 109 | 92.2 | 96.0 | 70.3 | 38.0 | 10.1 | 30.0 |
| UICJan 8, 2026 · road | L 57–70 | 138 | 88.1 | 108.2 | 64.7 | 51.9 | 23.2 | 17.2 |
| BelmontJan 4, 2026 · road | W 68–67 | 86 | 98.1 | 96.6 | 69.3 | 50.0 | 26.0 | 37.8 |
| ValparaisoJan 1, 2026 · home | W 75–70 | 191 | 100.2 | 93.5 | 74.9 | 45.5 | 12.0 | 23.3 |
| Murray StDec 30, 2025 · road | L 81–84 | 130 | 108.7 | 112.7 | 74.5 | 50.7 | 17.4 | 35.9 |
| BradleyDec 21, 2025 · road | L 69–73 | 98 | 96.5 | 102.1 | 71.5 | 46.7 | 18.2 | 29.7 |
| Illinois StDec 19, 2025 · home | L 68–75 | 112 | 97.1 | 107.1 | 70.0 | 52.8 | 22.9 | 29.4 |
| RichmondDec 13, 2025 · road | L 84–93 | 162 | 96.2 | 106.5 | 77.6 | 46.4 | 25.2 | 35.7 |
| UT MartinDec 11, 2025 · home | W 83–54 | 234 | 118.8 | 77.3 | 69.8 | 61.6 | 18.6 | 32.1 |
| High PointDec 4, 2025 · road | W 86–84 | 80 | 116.2 | 113.5 | 74.0 | 56.7 | 16.2 | 33.3 |
| Little RockNov 30, 2025 · home | W 74–65 | 275 | 115.9 | 101.8 | 63.9 | 66.0 | 23.5 | 34.8 |
| MemphisNov 27, 2025 · road | L 58–74 | 85 | 82.8 | 105.6 | 70.1 | 32.8 | 18.5 | 37.8 |
| UABNov 24, 2025 · neutral | L 73–81 | 106 | 103.8 | 115.2 | 70.3 | 46.3 | 11.4 | 25.6 |
| DelawareNov 23, 2025 · neutral | W 79–59 | 251 | 116.0 | 86.6 | 68.1 | 49.2 | 14.7 | 41.2 |
| N Dakota StNov 18, 2025 · road | L 85–92 | 128 | 109.5 | 118.6 | 77.6 | 56.8 | 20.6 | 36.7 |
| NevadaNov 13, 2025 · road | L 81–86 | 59 | 102.9 | 109.2 | 70.0 | 47.0 | 10.2 | 22.7 |
| Kansas CityNov 8, 2025 · home | W 101–78 | 337 | 132.7 | 102.4 | 76.1 | 69.7 | 15.8 | 33.3 |
| McKendreeNov 4, 2025 · home | W 83–42 | Unrated | 115.7 | 58.5 | 71.7 | 54.8 | 16.7 | 38.5 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew SteffeG | 32 | 30.8 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 51.1 | 18.1% | 32 | 1.6232 games | 16432 games |
| Quel'Ron HouseG | 30 | 30.1 | 15.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 51.6 | 27.8% | 30 | 1.4230 games | 5530 games |
| Damien Mayo Jr.G | 31 | 25.4 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 56.3 | 18.1% | 31 | 1.7931 games | 9731 games |
| Rolyns AligbeF | 32 | 24.4 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 54.0 | 20.1% | 32 | 0.5932 games | 6932 games |
| Jalen HaynesG | 32 | 20.8 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 52.4 | 21.5% | 32 | 1.5532 games | 7832 games |
| Prince AligbeF | 30 | 22.1 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 47.0 | 20.5% | 30 | 0.4730 games | 1830 games |
| Davion SykesG | 32 | 19.0 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 55.2 | 19.3% | 32 | 0.7532 games | 832 games |
| Isaiah StaffordG | 16 | 19.1 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 48.1 | 21.6% | 16 | 1.0016 games | 4916 games |
| Max PikaarF | 27 | 10.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 45.0 | 11.5% | 27 | 0.6927 games | 2727 games |
| Jorge MorenoF | 25 | 10.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 59.4 | 14.2% | 25 | 0.6325 games | 025 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around S Illinois?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
14Source-listed players
12Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 8 | 4,333 | 4,333 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 5 | 2,009 | 2,009 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 1 | 133 | 133 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,475 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
14 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Steffe →G | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 30.8 | 9.9 | 51.1% |
| Quel'Ron House →G | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 30.1 | 15.2 | 51.6% |
| Damien Mayo Jr. →G | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 25.4 | 9.1 | 56.3% |
| Rolyns Aligbe →F | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 24.4 | 9.5 | 54.0% |
| Jalen Haynes →G | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 20.8 | 7.9 | 52.4% |
| Prince Aligbe →F | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 22.1 | 7.2 | 47.0% |
| Davion Sykes →G | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 19.0 | 7.1 | 55.2% |
| Isaiah Stafford →G | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 19.1 | 7.3 | 48.1% |
| Max Pikaar →F | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 10.8 | 1.9 | 45.0% |
| Jorge Moreno →F | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 10.8 | 2.8 | 59.4% |
| Jaheem Webber →C | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 7.0 | 1.4 | 57.0% |
| Caden Hawkins →G | Same programSouthern Illinois Salukis | 5.3 | 1.2 | 49.2% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Richmond vs S Illinois
67.5Richmond
72.9S Illinois
S Illinois win estimate68.1%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin5.4
Projected total140.4
80% home-margin range-10.5 to 21.4
Estimated possessions67.8
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 2.0 pts
S Illinois attack 51.1% · Richmond defense 50.9%Richmond attack 51.8% · S Illinois defense 49.6%
Ball securityAway 3.2 pts
S Illinois attack 17.5% · Richmond defense 16.7%Richmond attack 15.2% · S Illinois defense 17.5%
Second chancesHome 6.0 pts
S Illinois attack 29.5% · Richmond defense 28.8%Richmond attack 22.9% · S Illinois defense 28.1%
Free-throw pressureAway 0.1 pts
S Illinois attack 34.3% · Richmond defense 33.7%Richmond attack 34.2% · S Illinois defense 33.5%
Banterra Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →