A relative strength
Turnover rate
13.0% · rank 7 of 366 · 34 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Northwestern
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.53
+12.9 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
15–192025–26 recorded finals
114.0Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
101.1Adjusted defense · lower is better
66.1Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Northwestern.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
15–1934 recorded games · 34 paired efficiency samples · pace 65.3Mean opponent adj. net 11.3 · 34 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
51.7%34 games · higher is betterRank 185 / 366 · 50th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
51.0%34 games · lower is betterRank 184 / 366 · 50th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
13.0%34 games · lower is betterRank 7 / 366 · 98th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
17.5%34 games · higher is betterRank 132 / 366 · 64th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
28.1%34 games · higher is betterRank 285 / 366 · 22th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
34.7%34 games · lower is betterRank 344 / 366 · 6th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
33.9%34 games · higher is betterRank 212 / 366 · 42th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
34.8%34 games · lower is betterRank 192 / 366 · 48th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 111.6 | 34 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 109.8 | 34 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 52.9% | 34 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.6% | 34 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 33.0% | 34 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.4% | 34 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 34.0% | 34 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 40.2% | 34 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 75.1% | 34 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 74.1% | 34 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 65.8% | 34 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 63.8% | 34 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,222 source possession rows across 34 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnovers forced
17.5% · rank 132 of 366 · 34 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
28.1% · rank 285 of 366 · 34 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Opponent offensive rebound rate
34.7% · rank 344 of 366 · 34 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 12 times in the selected window; Northwestern won 5. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 12, 2026 · neutral vs Purdue · L 68–81 · offense 114.4 / defense 136.3
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 34 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PurdueMar 12, 2026 · neutral | L 68–81 | 9 | 114.4 | 136.3 | 59.4 | 58.5 | 15.1 | 26.9 |
| IndianaMar 11, 2026 · neutral | W 74–61 | 44 | 121.9 | 100.5 | 60.7 | 53.7 | 9.9 | 26.7 |
| Penn StateMar 10, 2026 · neutral | W 76–66 | 103 | 119.6 | 103.9 | 63.6 | 56.6 | 12.6 | 37.0 |
| MinnesotaMar 8, 2026 · road | L 66–67 | 91 | 119.7 | 121.5 | 55.1 | 50.9 | 14.5 | 40.6 |
| PurdueMar 5, 2026 · home | L 66–70 | 9 | 114.9 | 121.8 | 57.5 | 58.5 | 12.2 | 16.7 |
| OregonFeb 28, 2026 · home | W 63–62 | 61 | 98.9 | 97.3 | 63.7 | 48.2 | 18.8 | 34.4 |
| IndianaFeb 25, 2026 · road | W 72–68 | 44 | 117.8 | 111.3 | 61.1 | 53.7 | 14.7 | 37.9 |
| MarylandFeb 19, 2026 · home | W 78–74 | 63 | 118.3 | 112.2 | 65.9 | 59.6 | 12.1 | 20.7 |
| NebraskaFeb 14, 2026 · road | L 49–68 | 24 | 76.0 | 105.5 | 64.5 | 43.0 | 24.8 | 18.2 |
| MichiganFeb 12, 2026 · home | L 75–87 | 6 | 100.4 | 116.4 | 74.7 | 44.3 | 10.7 | 28.6 |
| IowaFeb 8, 2026 · road | L 70–76 | 28 | 112.7 | 122.4 | 62.1 | 55.6 | 16.1 | 12.5 |
| IllinoisFeb 5, 2026 · road | L 44–84 | 7 | 69.5 | 132.8 | 63.3 | 32.3 | 1.6 | 13.3 |
| WashingtonFeb 1, 2026 · home | L 62–76 | 66 | 95.1 | 116.6 | 65.2 | 43.0 | 16.9 | 25.6 |
| Penn StateJan 30, 2026 · home | W 94–73 | 103 | 138.5 | 107.5 | 67.9 | 69.8 | 13.3 | 33.3 |
| UCLAJan 24, 2026 · road | L 64–71 | 27 | 99.6 | 110.5 | 64.2 | 44.3 | 14.0 | 23.5 |
| USCJan 22, 2026 · road | W 74–68 | 72 | 109.6 | 100.8 | 67.5 | 47.6 | 8.9 | 22.9 |
| NebraskaJan 17, 2026 · home | L 58–77 | 24 | 96.8 | 128.5 | 59.9 | 47.2 | 18.4 | 29.0 |
| IllinoisJan 15, 2026 · home | L 68–79 | 7 | 114.4 | 132.9 | 59.4 | 47.3 | 11.8 | 40.6 |
| RutgersJan 11, 2026 · road | L 75–77 | 107 | 105.9 | 108.8 | 62.9 | 46.0 | 8.5 | 24.4 |
| Michigan StJan 8, 2026 · road | L 66–76 | 13 | 98.4 | 113.3 | 67.1 | 43.1 | 8.9 | 20.5 |
| MinnesotaJan 3, 2026 · home | L 78–84 | 91 | 118.3 | 127.4 | 65.9 | 54.4 | 6.1 | 16.7 |
| HowardDec 30, 2025 · home | W 80–60 | 223 | 125.7 | 94.2 | 63.7 | 51.8 | 7.9 | 36.1 |
| ButlerDec 20, 2025 · neutral | L 58–61 | 82 | 86.6 | 91.1 | 67.0 | 39.1 | 13.4 | 24.3 |
| ValparaisoDec 17, 2025 · home | W 86–70 | 191 | 125.6 | 102.3 | 68.5 | 58.2 | 10.2 | 34.4 |
| Jackson StDec 13, 2025 · home | W 93–53 | 345 | 127.9 | 72.9 | 72.7 | 56.3 | 13.8 | 34.4 |
| Ohio StateDec 6, 2025 · home | L 82–86 | 25 | 114.6 | 120.2 | 71.5 | 54.1 | 19.6 | 39.4 |
| WisconsinDec 4, 2025 · road | L 73–85 | 21 | 105.1 | 122.4 | 69.4 | 45.8 | 17.3 | 35.5 |
| Oklahoma StNov 28, 2025 · home | L 81–86 | 88 | 111.8 | 118.7 | 72.5 | 52.7 | 13.8 | 27.3 |
| South CarolinaNov 23, 2025 · neutral | W 79–77 | 99 | 123.7 | 120.5 | 63.9 | 63.2 | 15.7 | 21.7 |
| VirginiaNov 21, 2025 · neutral | L 78–83 | 35 | 110.2 | 117.3 | 70.8 | 52.6 | 9.9 | 17.6 |
| DePaulNov 15, 2025 · road | W 81–79 | 134 | 119.8 | 116.8 | 67.6 | 65.0 | 16.3 | 25.0 |
| Cleveland StNov 11, 2025 · home | W 110–63 | 267 | 149.0 | 85.4 | 73.8 | 68.4 | 9.5 | 39.3 |
| Boston UNov 7, 2025 · home | W 76–52 | 270 | 126.1 | 86.3 | 60.3 | 57.5 | 8.3 | 33.3 |
| MercyhurstNov 4, 2025 · home | W 70–47 | 305 | 103.5 | 69.5 | 67.6 | 41.3 | 17.7 | 39.5 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick MartinelliF | 33 | 35.6 | 23.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 60.2 | 31.3% | 33 | 1.4033 games | 10833 games |
| Jayden ReidG | 34 | 25.8 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 50.4 | 24.9% | 34 | 2.7134 games | 10134 games |
| Tre SingletonF | 34 | 25.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 54.7 | 17.1% | 34 | 1.4734 games | 5434 games |
| Angelo CiaravinoG | 33 | 22.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 55.4 | 14.9% | 33 | 3.1533 games | 4333 games |
| Jake WestG | 33 | 21.8 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 52.2 | 15.3% | 33 | 2.8533 games | 7733 games |
| Arrinten PageF | 29 | 22.8 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 59.3 | 23.0% | 29 | 1.4729 games | 4429 games |
| Jordan ClaytonG | 31 | 18.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 57.6 | 11.3% | 31 | 3.0031 games | 7831 games |
| Tyler KroppF | 31 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 53.2 | 14.7% | 31 | 0.9031 games | 1131 games |
| Max GreenG | 23 | 14.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 48.8 | 17.1% | 23 | 2.8823 games | 6823 games |
| Justin MullinsG | 24 | 13.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 53.1 | 14.4% | 24 | 1.3624 games | 3124 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Northwestern?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
14Source-listed players
12Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
83%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 9 | 3,765 | 3,765 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 5 | 1,884 | 1,884 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (5,649 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
14 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reid →G | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 25.8 | 10.1 | 50.4% |
| Tre Singleton →F | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 25.0 | 7.6 | 54.7% |
| Angelo Ciaravino →G | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 22.0 | 6.3 | 55.4% |
| Jake West →G | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 21.8 | 5.3 | 52.2% |
| Arrinten Page →F | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 22.8 | 10.2 | 59.3% |
| Jordan Clayton →G | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 18.3 | 3.9 | 57.6% |
| Tyler Kropp →F | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 11.9 | 3.1 | 53.2% |
| Max Green →G | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 14.8 | 4.3 | 48.8% |
| Justin Mullins →G | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 13.5 | 3.2 | 53.1% |
| K.J. Windham →G | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 13.3 | 3.8 | 50.7% |
| Phoenix Gill →G | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 3.5 | 0.5 | 25.3% |
| Gus Hurlburt →F | Same programNorthwestern Wildcats | 2.0 | 2.0 | 102.6% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
DePaul vs Northwestern
64.2DePaul
74.3Northwestern
Northwestern win estimate78.0%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin10.1
Projected total138.5
80% home-margin range-5.9 to 26.0
Estimated possessions65.7
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 0.9 pts
Northwestern attack 52.2% · DePaul defense 50.9%DePaul attack 51.5% · Northwestern defense 49.3%
Ball securityHome 2.0 pts
Northwestern attack 14.2% · DePaul defense 17.4%DePaul attack 17.9% · Northwestern defense 19.1%
Second chancesHome 2.2 pts
Northwestern attack 29.5% · DePaul defense 29.6%DePaul attack 28.1% · Northwestern defense 30.4%
Free-throw pressureHome 1.6 pts
Northwestern attack 35.1% · DePaul defense 34.7%DePaul attack 34.2% · Northwestern defense 35.3%
Welsh-Ryan Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →