A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
23.5% · rank 4 of 366 · 36 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Idaho
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.214
-3.9 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
21–152025–26 recorded finals
106.0Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
109.9Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.8Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Idaho.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
21–1536 recorded games · 36 paired efficiency samples · pace 69.5Mean opponent adj. net -1.9 · 33 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.6%36 games · higher is betterRank 140 / 366 · 62th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
49.6%36 games · lower is betterRank 109 / 366 · 70th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
15.1%36 games · lower is betterRank 77 / 366 · 79th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
15.4%36 games · higher is betterRank 282 / 366 · 23th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
29.5%36 games · higher is betterRank 237 / 366 · 35th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
23.5%36 games · lower is betterRank 4 / 366 · 99th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
33.8%36 games · higher is betterRank 214 / 366 · 42th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
37.3%36 games · lower is betterRank 263 / 366 · 28th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 111.6 | 36 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 104.3 | 36 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 52.6% | 36 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 48.2% | 36 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 35.1% | 36 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.7% | 36 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 47.0% | 36 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 36.6% | 36 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 73.2% | 36 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 73.8% | 36 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 46.8% | 36 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 46.1% | 36 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,497 source possession rows across 36 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnover rate
15.1% · rank 77 of 366 · 36 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
37.3% · rank 263 of 366 · 36 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Turnovers forced
15.4% · rank 282 of 366 · 36 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 11 times in the selected window; Idaho won 7. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 20, 2026 · neutral vs Houston · L 47–78 · offense 71.6 / defense 118.8
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 36 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HoustonMar 20, 2026 · neutral | L 47–78 | 2 | 71.6 | 118.8 | 65.7 | 33.9 | 13.7 | 15.2 |
| MontanaMar 12, 2026 · neutral | W 77–66 | 178 | 106.8 | 91.6 | 72.1 | 44.9 | 11.1 | 34.2 |
| E WashingtonMar 11, 2026 · neutral | W 81–68 | 199 | 113.2 | 95.1 | 71.5 | 57.5 | 9.8 | 16.1 |
| Montana StMar 9, 2026 · neutral | W 78–74 | 163 | 115.7 | 109.8 | 67.4 | 60.0 | 11.9 | 14.8 |
| Sacramento StMar 8, 2026 · neutral | W 68–45 | 314 | 98.2 | 65.0 | 69.3 | 40.8 | 17.3 | 34.1 |
| E WashingtonMar 3, 2026 · road | W 85–81 | 199 | 127.0 | 121.0 | 66.9 | 58.7 | 14.9 | 44.1 |
| N ColoradoFeb 28, 2026 · home | L 67–76 | 149 | 100.0 | 113.4 | 67.0 | 38.6 | 9.0 | 36.0 |
| N ArizonaFeb 27, 2026 · home | W 78–58 | 308 | 128.6 | 95.6 | 60.7 | 63.2 | 13.2 | 32.3 |
| Sacramento StFeb 22, 2026 · road | W 86–80 | 314 | 117.4 | 109.2 | 73.3 | 53.2 | 21.8 | 43.9 |
| Portland StFeb 20, 2026 · road | L 67–77 | 170 | 97.7 | 112.3 | 68.6 | 47.5 | 19.0 | 28.2 |
| Idaho StFeb 14, 2026 · home | W 99–69 | 239 | 136.5 | 95.1 | 72.6 | 70.2 | 16.5 | 34.5 |
| Weber StFeb 13, 2026 · home | L 72–83 | 212 | 112.0 | 129.1 | 64.3 | 50.0 | 7.8 | 21.6 |
| MontanaFeb 7, 2026 · road | L 68–73 | 178 | 94.3 | 101.2 | 72.1 | 46.2 | 16.6 | 25.0 |
| Montana StFeb 6, 2026 · road | L 66–73 | 163 | 90.7 | 100.3 | 72.8 | 45.3 | 19.2 | 21.2 |
| N ArizonaFeb 1, 2026 · road | W 79–62 | 308 | 120.8 | 94.8 | 65.4 | 63.2 | 13.8 | 17.9 |
| N ColoradoJan 30, 2026 · road | L 83–91 | 149 | 109.2 | 119.8 | 76.0 | 46.1 | 7.9 | 21.4 |
| Portland StJan 24, 2026 · home | L 66–69 | 170 | 98.2 | 102.6 | 67.2 | 48.0 | 19.3 | 25.7 |
| Sacramento StJan 23, 2026 · home | W 86–76 | 314 | 119.7 | 105.8 | 71.8 | 61.0 | 16.7 | 25.8 |
| Weber StJan 18, 2026 · road | W 75–67 | 212 | 98.1 | 87.7 | 76.4 | 52.7 | 20.9 | 19.4 |
| Idaho StJan 16, 2026 · road | L 68–76 | 239 | 101.8 | 113.8 | 66.8 | 45.3 | 13.5 | 22.9 |
| Montana StJan 10, 2026 · home | W 92–89 | 163 | 134.7 | 130.3 | 68.3 | 59.6 | 7.3 | 32.4 |
| MontanaJan 9, 2026 · home | L 73–79 | 178 | 104.1 | 112.7 | 70.1 | 42.2 | 11.4 | 37.8 |
| E WashingtonJan 3, 2026 · home | W 84–81 | 199 | 121.2 | 116.8 | 69.3 | 59.4 | 18.8 | 40.0 |
| BakersfieldDec 23, 2025 · road | L 63–64 | 311 | 96.2 | 97.8 | 65.5 | 44.0 | 16.8 | 28.9 |
| Cal PolyDec 22, 2025 · road | W 83–80 | 246 | 100.1 | 96.5 | 73.7 | 47.0 | 16.9 | 23.9 |
| EvergreenDec 14, 2025 · home | W 109–55 | Unrated | 148.5 | 74.9 | 73.4 | 66.0 | 16.4 | 55.9 |
| Notre DameDec 11, 2025 · road | L 65–80 | 114 | 103.6 | 127.5 | 62.8 | 48.3 | 9.6 | 20.0 |
| S Dakota StDec 6, 2025 · road | W 84–81 | 161 | 122.2 | 117.9 | 68.7 | 59.4 | 13.1 | 23.3 |
| North DakotaDec 4, 2025 · home | W 90–58 | 283 | 129.6 | 83.5 | 69.5 | 65.4 | 20.2 | 39.1 |
| Sam HoustonNov 29, 2025 · neutral | L 68–94 | 127 | 106.8 | 147.6 | 63.7 | 54.5 | 14.1 | 25.0 |
| CSU NorthridgeNov 27, 2025 · neutral | W 78–64 | 171 | 106.3 | 87.3 | 73.4 | 46.7 | 15.0 | 28.9 |
| Eastern OregonNov 23, 2025 · home | W 97–68 | Unrated | 134.5 | 94.3 | 72.1 | 64.4 | 11.1 | 30.3 |
| UC San DiegoNov 15, 2025 · road | L 67–75 | 97 | 95.9 | 107.3 | 69.9 | 44.2 | 15.7 | 26.2 |
| San DiegoNov 13, 2025 · road | L 74–78 | 263 | 110.4 | 116.3 | 67.1 | 46.6 | 23.9 | 51.4 |
| WhitmanNov 8, 2025 · home | W 94–49 | Unrated | 128.2 | 66.8 | 73.3 | 65.0 | 21.8 | 42.9 |
| Washington StNov 4, 2025 · road | W 83–81 | 117 | 115.9 | 113.1 | 71.6 | 59.5 | 15.4 | 21.2 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson RasmussenF | 35 | 31.0 | 13.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 55.9 | 22.8% | 35 | 0.6735 games | 10935 games |
| Kolton MitchellG | 33 | 30.4 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 55.5 | 23.1% | 33 | 2.3133 games | 20133 games |
| Biko JohnsonG | 36 | 27.7 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 50.1 | 25.5% | 36 | 1.3836 games | 19836 games |
| Brody RowburyF | 36 | 24.5 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 65.0 | 14.3% | 36 | 0.9736 games | 3136 games |
| Jack PayneG | 34 | 21.5 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 51.6 | 17.2% | 34 | 1.3434 games | 13634 games |
| Isaiah BricknerG | 35 | 20.5 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 59.0 | 27.7% | 35 | 0.7935 games | 11235 games |
| Seth JobaF | 36 | 17.2 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 56.6 | 15.3% | 36 | 0.5836 games | 9336 games |
| Trevon BlassingameG | 35 | 16.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 60.6 | 11.4% | 35 | 0.8335 games | 6635 games |
| Miles KlapperG | 29 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 57.8 | 15.6% | 29 | 1.4729 games | 4229 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Idaho?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
16Source-listed players
12Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 4,547 | 4,547 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 6 | 2,678 | 2,678 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (7,225 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
16 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Rasmussen →F | Same programIdaho Vandals | 31.0 | 13.6 | 55.9% |
| Kolton Mitchell →G | Same programIdaho Vandals | 30.4 | 13.7 | 55.5% |
| Biko Johnson →G | Same programIdaho Vandals | 27.7 | 12.2 | 50.1% |
| Brody Rowbury →F | Same programIdaho Vandals | 24.5 | 7.7 | 65.0% |
| Jack Payne →G | Same programIdaho Vandals | 21.5 | 6.6 | 51.6% |
| Isaiah Brickner →G | Same programIdaho Vandals | 20.5 | 11.9 | 59.0% |
| Seth Joba →F | Same programIdaho Vandals | 17.2 | 5.2 | 56.6% |
| Trevon Blassingame →G | Same programIdaho Vandals | 16.9 | 3.9 | 60.6% |
| Miles Klapper →G | Same programIdaho Vandals | 12.3 | 3.8 | 57.8% |
| Aidan Sevilla →G | Same programIdaho Vandals | 6.7 | 2.0 | 53.7% |
| Ewan Steele →F | Same programIdaho Vandals | 6.3 | 1.5 | 48.4% |
| Kristian Gonzalez →G | Same programIdaho Vandals | 18.0 | 18.0 | 95.5% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Idaho vs Nevada
65.3Idaho
78.6Nevada
Nevada win estimate83.6%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin13.4
Projected total143.9
80% home-margin range-2.6 to 29.3
Estimated possessions66.2
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 0.8 pts
Nevada attack 52.1% · Idaho defense 51.9%Idaho attack 50.9% · Nevada defense 49.8%
Ball securityAway 0.6 pts
Nevada attack 15.2% · Idaho defense 15.4%Idaho attack 16.7% · Nevada defense 17.5%
Second chancesHome 1.1 pts
Nevada attack 29.8% · Idaho defense 28.0%Idaho attack 27.7% · Nevada defense 27.0%
Free-throw pressureHome 8.7 pts
Nevada attack 42.3% · Idaho defense 37.6%Idaho attack 33.1% · Nevada defense 37.1%
Lawlor Events Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →