A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
22.9% · rank 3 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Boise St
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.50
+14.0 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
20–122025–26 recorded finals
114.9Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
100.9Adjusted defense · lower is better
66.9Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Boise St.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
20–1232 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 67.1Mean opponent adj. net 7.3 · 30 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.6%32 games · higher is betterRank 143 / 366 · 61th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
52.7%32 games · lower is betterRank 277 / 366 · 24th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
17.0%32 games · lower is betterRank 205 / 366 · 44th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
14.3%32 games · higher is betterRank 332 / 366 · 9th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
33.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 92 / 366 · 75th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
22.9%32 games · lower is betterRank 3 / 366 · 99th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
41.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 33 / 366 · 91th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
31.5%32 games · lower is betterRank 103 / 366 · 72th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 113.9 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 107.1 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 53.5% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 53.0% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.2% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.7% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 42.8% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 37.1% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 78.6% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 71.2% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 50.5% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 45.8% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,181 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
41.7% · rank 33 of 366 · 32 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
A closer look
Opponent effective FG%
52.7% · rank 277 of 366 · 32 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Turnovers forced
14.3% · rank 332 of 366 · 32 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; Boise St won 5. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 12, 2026 · neutral vs San José St · L 74–84 · offense 106.0 / defense 120.3
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José StMar 12, 2026 · neutral | L 74–84 | 226 | 106.0 | 120.3 | 69.8 | 42.2 | 17.2 | 37.8 |
| Colorado StMar 7, 2026 · road | W 78–67 | 67 | 127.3 | 109.4 | 61.3 | 56.9 | 18.0 | 46.4 |
| San Diego StMar 4, 2026 · home | W 86–77 | 43 | 126.3 | 113.1 | 68.1 | 65.2 | 25.0 | 48.0 |
| Fresno StMar 1, 2026 · road | W 69–53 | 188 | 114.9 | 88.3 | 60.0 | 48.5 | 15.0 | 42.5 |
| WyomingFeb 25, 2026 · home | W 72–62 | 132 | 113.1 | 97.4 | 63.7 | 51.9 | 18.9 | 38.5 |
| San José StFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 84–69 | 226 | 127.9 | 105.0 | 65.7 | 62.7 | 12.2 | 26.1 |
| Utah StateFeb 19, 2026 · road | L 56–75 | 30 | 93.0 | 124.5 | 60.2 | 43.0 | 19.9 | 38.2 |
| UNLVFeb 14, 2026 · home | L 83–86 | 111 | 119.3 | 123.7 | 61.8 | 58.5 | 17.3 | 26.9 |
| New MexicoFeb 8, 2026 · road | W 91–90 | 40 | 135.0 | 133.5 | 67.4 | 60.2 | 16.3 | 31.0 |
| NevadaFeb 4, 2026 · home | W 91–87 | 59 | 122.4 | 117.1 | 66.1 | 59.3 | 14.8 | 30.8 |
| Grand CanyonJan 31, 2026 · road | L 69–86 | 65 | 103.9 | 129.5 | 66.4 | 47.2 | 16.6 | 29.4 |
| San José StJan 28, 2026 · road | W 89–58 | 226 | 133.4 | 86.9 | 66.7 | 63.4 | 15.0 | 45.5 |
| Air ForceJan 24, 2026 · home | W 96–54 | 347 | 154.7 | 87.0 | 62.1 | 67.2 | 6.4 | 42.3 |
| WyomingJan 21, 2026 · road | W 81–65 | 132 | 124.9 | 100.2 | 64.9 | 57.6 | 12.3 | 25.0 |
| Colorado StJan 17, 2026 · home | W 79–73 | 67 | 126.9 | 117.3 | 62.2 | 59.2 | 17.7 | 35.5 |
| UNLVJan 14, 2026 · road | L 85–89 | 111 | 106.2 | 111.2 | 71.1 | 51.6 | 18.7 | 23.5 |
| Utah StateJan 11, 2026 · home | L 68–93 | 30 | 103.9 | 142.1 | 65.4 | 43.0 | 18.3 | 40.0 |
| Grand CanyonJan 8, 2026 · home | L 58–75 | 65 | 85.6 | 110.6 | 67.8 | 38.8 | 20.7 | 20.0 |
| San Diego StJan 4, 2026 · road | L 107–110 | 43 | 111.5 | 114.6 | 69.8 | 50.6 | 17.7 | 30.2 |
| New MexicoDec 31, 2025 · home | W 62–53 | 40 | 88.3 | 75.5 | 70.2 | 41.1 | 12.8 | 21.6 |
| NevadaDec 21, 2025 · road | L 66–81 | 59 | 105.7 | 129.7 | 62.4 | 52.2 | 20.8 | 37.9 |
| Saint Mary'sDec 14, 2025 · neutral | W 68–67 | 18 | 98.5 | 97.1 | 69.0 | 53.8 | 21.7 | 14.8 |
| DuquesneDec 11, 2025 · home | W 86–64 | 129 | 121.9 | 90.7 | 70.5 | 56.7 | 11.3 | 25.8 |
| ButlerDec 6, 2025 · road | W 77–68 | 82 | 114.6 | 101.2 | 67.2 | 44.4 | 11.9 | 42.1 |
| ChaminadeNov 27, 2025 · neutral | W 102–76 | Unrated | 133.4 | 99.4 | 76.5 | 66.4 | 18.3 | 44.4 |
| NC StateNov 25, 2025 · neutral | L 70–81 | 45 | 99.9 | 115.6 | 70.1 | 43.8 | 21.4 | 32.6 |
| USCNov 24, 2025 · neutral | L 67–70 | 72 | 96.2 | 100.5 | 69.7 | 45.2 | 21.5 | 33.3 |
| Wichita StNov 19, 2025 · home | W 62–59 | 92 | 96.9 | 92.2 | 64.0 | 43.5 | 15.6 | 29.7 |
| Montana StNov 15, 2025 · home | W 62–58 | 163 | 97.9 | 91.6 | 63.3 | 41.2 | 12.6 | 20.6 |
| UT Rio GrandeNov 12, 2025 · home | W 85–65 | 198 | 112.4 | 86.0 | 75.6 | 57.9 | 26.5 | 48.4 |
| Utah ValleyNov 8, 2025 · home | W 101–77 | 100 | 135.1 | 103.0 | 74.8 | 62.7 | 12.0 | 36.7 |
| HI PacificNov 4, 2025 · home | L 78–79 | Unrated | 109.6 | 111.0 | 71.2 | 49.3 | 16.9 | 39.5 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew MeadowF | 32 | 30.0 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 61.1 | 18.5% | 32 | 1.1032 games | 11432 games |
| Dylan AndrewsG | 32 | 29.2 | 12.5 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 54.4 | 23.8% | 32 | 1.5332 games | 14732 games |
| Javan BuchananF | 31 | 27.9 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 55.9 | 22.8% | 31 | 1.4531 games | 10131 games |
| Drew FielderC | 32 | 23.7 | 14.7 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 64.3 | 28.8% | 32 | 0.7332 games | 9332 games |
| RJ Keene IIG | 31 | 22.2 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 50.1 | 7.3% | 31 | 3.6931 games | 5531 games |
| Aginaldo NetoG | 32 | 19.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 49.6 | 15.5% | 32 | 1.2232 games | 4632 games |
| Pearson CarmichaelF | 31 | 19.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 55.1 | 22.1% | 31 | 0.7731 games | 11831 games |
| Dominic ParolinF | 32 | 17.0 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 60.7 | 16.1% | 32 | 0.7632 games | 2432 games |
| Spencer AhrensF | 32 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 55.2 | 21.4% | 32 | 0.6832 games | 6232 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Boise St?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
15Source-listed players
14Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 7 | 2,314 | 2,314 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 7 | 3,479 | 3,479 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 1 | 757 | 757 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,550 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
15 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Meadow →F | Same programBoise State Broncos | 30.0 | 12.1 | 61.1% |
| Dylan Andrews →G | Same programBoise State Broncos | 29.2 | 12.5 | 54.4% |
| Javan Buchanan →F | Same programBoise State Broncos | 27.9 | 12.6 | 55.9% |
| Drew Fielder →C | Same programBoise State Broncos | 23.7 | 14.7 | 64.3% |
| RJ Keene II →G | Same programBoise State Broncos | 22.2 | 2.6 | 50.1% |
| Aginaldo Neto →G | Same programBoise State Broncos | 19.7 | 4.3 | 49.6% |
| Pearson Carmichael →F | Same programBoise State Broncos | 19.1 | 7.9 | 55.1% |
| Dominic Parolin →F | Same programBoise State Broncos | 17.0 | 5.5 | 60.7% |
| Spencer Ahrens →F | Same programBoise State Broncos | 13.0 | 4.9 | 55.2% |
| Bhan Buom →F | Same programBoise State Broncos | 4.5 | 1.8 | 68.1% |
| Julian Bowie →G | Same programBoise State Broncos | 5.9 | 1.0 | 44.4% |
| Rayzhon Bergersen →G | Same programBoise State Broncos | 2.0 | 0.3 | 100.0% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Butler vs Boise St
71.1Butler
77.6Boise St
Boise St win estimate70.6%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin6.5
Projected total148.7
80% home-margin range-9.4 to 22.4
Estimated possessions67.7
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 0.1 pts
Boise St attack 52.8% · Butler defense 50.2%Butler attack 52.9% · Boise St defense 50.2%
Ball securityAway 1.4 pts
Boise St attack 16.4% · Butler defense 15.4%Butler attack 15.9% · Boise St defense 16.2%
Second chancesAway 1.9 pts
Boise St attack 32.7% · Butler defense 28.3%Butler attack 29.8% · Boise St defense 23.6%
Free-throw pressureHome 7.0 pts
Boise St attack 38.9% · Butler defense 25.8%Butler attack 37.6% · Boise St defense 31.5%
ExtraMile Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →