A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
25.6% · rank 21 of 366 · 33 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Hawai'i
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.136
+2.3 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
24–92025–26 recorded finals
105.1Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
102.8Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.8Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Hawai'i.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
24–933 recorded games · 33 paired efficiency samples · pace 72.2Mean opponent adj. net -2.8 · 31 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.2%33 games · higher is betterRank 160 / 366 · 56th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
46.4%33 games · lower is betterRank 22 / 366 · 94th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
18.4%33 games · lower is betterRank 301 / 366 · 18th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
16.7%33 games · higher is betterRank 190 / 366 · 48th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
32.1%33 games · higher is betterRank 143 / 366 · 61th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
25.6%33 games · lower is betterRank 21 / 366 · 95th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
41.9%33 games · higher is betterRank 29 / 366 · 92th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
34.6%33 games · lower is betterRank 184 / 366 · 50th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 109.4 | 33 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 97.0 | 33 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 55.5% | 33 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 47.1% | 33 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 31.6% | 33 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 30.0% | 33 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 40.2% | 33 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 32.5% | 33 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 73.8% | 33 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 69.7% | 33 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 51.0% | 33 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 39.3% | 33 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,391 source possession rows across 33 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent effective FG%
46.4% · rank 22 of 366 · 33 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Turnovers forced
16.7% · rank 190 of 366 · 33 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
A closer look
Turnover rate
18.4% · rank 301 of 366 · 33 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 7 times in the selected window; Hawai'i won 6. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 19, 2026 · neutral vs Arkansas · L 78–97 · offense 101.8 / defense 126.5
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 33 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArkansasMar 19, 2026 · neutral | L 78–97 | 23 | 101.8 | 126.5 | 76.7 | 52.2 | 15.7 | 27.5 |
| UC IrvineMar 15, 2026 · neutral | W 71–64 | 95 | 100.6 | 90.7 | 70.6 | 47.0 | 19.8 | 39.5 |
| FullertonMar 14, 2026 · neutral | W 78–63 | 255 | 106.1 | 85.7 | 73.6 | 43.4 | 23.1 | 44.4 |
| Long Beach StMar 8, 2026 · home | L 75–84 | 265 | 97.9 | 109.6 | 76.6 | 46.9 | 11.7 | 12.8 |
| UC RiversideMar 6, 2026 · home | W 93–74 | 241 | 129.5 | 103.1 | 71.8 | 64.7 | 13.9 | 28.6 |
| FullertonMar 1, 2026 · road | W 87–85 | 255 | 121.0 | 118.2 | 71.9 | 59.3 | 18.1 | 26.5 |
| UC DavisFeb 27, 2026 · road | W 77–73 | 193 | 112.0 | 106.2 | 68.8 | 60.0 | 18.9 | 22.2 |
| Santa BarbaraFeb 22, 2026 · home | W 78–75 | 143 | 105.4 | 101.3 | 65.8 | 47.4 | 12.2 | 24.3 |
| Cal PolyFeb 20, 2026 · home | L 75–86 | 246 | 91.0 | 104.3 | 82.4 | 40.8 | 20.6 | 31.0 |
| CSU NorthridgeFeb 15, 2026 · road | L 60–84 | 171 | 83.6 | 117.1 | 71.7 | 42.0 | 25.1 | 29.3 |
| BakersfieldFeb 13, 2026 · road | W 89–74 | 311 | 123.0 | 102.3 | 72.4 | 57.1 | 18.0 | 37.5 |
| UC San DiegoFeb 8, 2026 · home | W 72–67 | 97 | 97.0 | 90.3 | 74.2 | 47.5 | 18.9 | 33.3 |
| Long Beach StJan 31, 2026 · road | W 89–82 | 265 | 123.4 | 113.7 | 72.1 | 66.0 | 18.0 | 20.0 |
| UC IrvineJan 30, 2026 · road | L 76–87 | 95 | 89.5 | 102.5 | 75.5 | 42.8 | 17.7 | 19.1 |
| CSU NorthridgeJan 25, 2026 · home | W 89–68 | 171 | 115.0 | 87.9 | 77.4 | 56.7 | 22.0 | 34.2 |
| BakersfieldJan 23, 2026 · home | W 98–71 | 311 | 126.7 | 91.8 | 77.3 | 54.6 | 16.8 | 44.7 |
| Santa BarbaraJan 18, 2026 · road | L 62–77 | 143 | 99.8 | 123.9 | 62.2 | 49.1 | 20.9 | 32.4 |
| Cal PolyJan 16, 2026 · road | W 86–66 | 246 | 110.5 | 84.8 | 77.9 | 56.1 | 19.3 | 31.3 |
| UC IrvineJan 11, 2026 · home | W 67–66 | 95 | 94.2 | 92.8 | 71.2 | 45.3 | 19.7 | 33.3 |
| UC San DiegoJan 4, 2026 · road | L 73–83 | 97 | 108.0 | 122.8 | 67.6 | 53.8 | 16.3 | 23.3 |
| UC RiversideJan 2, 2026 · road | W 88–45 | 241 | 138.8 | 71.0 | 63.4 | 65.3 | 18.9 | 47.1 |
| UTEPDec 14, 2025 · home | W 66–61 | 230 | 103.0 | 95.2 | 64.1 | 46.2 | 12.5 | 21.2 |
| Hawaiʻi HiloDec 11, 2025 · home | W 98–46 | Unrated | 141.2 | 66.3 | 69.4 | 60.1 | 8.6 | 41.7 |
| FullertonDec 7, 2025 · home | W 69–59 | 255 | 94.8 | 81.0 | 72.8 | 46.0 | 20.6 | 32.6 |
| UC DavisDec 5, 2025 · home | W 75–69 | 193 | 105.1 | 96.7 | 71.4 | 62.0 | 21.0 | 17.2 |
| North DakotaNov 29, 2025 · home | W 92–55 | 283 | 118.7 | 71.0 | 77.5 | 62.3 | 21.9 | 33.3 |
| HI PacificNov 25, 2025 · home | W 88–76 | Unrated | 126.6 | 109.3 | 69.5 | 50.9 | 15.8 | 51.7 |
| Arizona StNov 21, 2025 · home | L 76–83 | 84 | 100.7 | 110.0 | 75.5 | 51.9 | 22.5 | 27.6 |
| Utah TechNov 16, 2025 · home | W 68–62 | 240 | 96.5 | 87.9 | 70.5 | 49.0 | 27.0 | 32.1 |
| ManhattanNov 15, 2025 · home | W 86–56 | 323 | 118.7 | 77.3 | 72.4 | 50.8 | 13.8 | 39.5 |
| Miss Valley StNov 13, 2025 · home | W 88–56 | 365 | 132.4 | 84.3 | 66.5 | 58.9 | 16.6 | 48.3 |
| E Texas A&MNov 10, 2025 · home | W 100–74 | 329 | 129.2 | 95.6 | 77.4 | 61.8 | 18.1 | 38.5 |
| OregonNov 5, 2025 · road | L 59–60 | 61 | 78.0 | 79.3 | 75.7 | 36.2 | 23.8 | 33.3 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter EricksonG | 33 | 31.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 56.6 | 15.0% | 33 | 1.6533 games | 11733 games |
| Dre BullockG | 33 | 28.4 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 52.3 | 25.4% | 33 | 1.0233 games | 13433 games |
| Harry RouhliadeffF | 31 | 25.5 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 64.1 | 18.6% | 31 | 0.9131 games | 8831 games |
| Gytis NemeiksaF | 33 | 23.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 53.7 | 19.4% | 33 | 0.9433 games | 8733 games |
| Isaac FinlinsonF | 33 | 22.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 59.3 | 19.0% | 33 | 0.6133 games | 8733 games |
| Isaac JohnsonC | 33 | 21.2 | 14.1 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 62.8 | 29.6% | 33 | 0.5833 games | 11533 games |
| Isaiah KerrG | 31 | 20.7 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 51.9 | 16.6% | 31 | 1.3531 games | 8831 games |
| Aaron Hunkin-ClaytorG | 17 | 28.2 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 51.2 | 13.4% | 17 | 2.0917 games | 2917 games |
| Yacine ToumiF | 30 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 59.1 | 20.8% | 30 | 0.4430 games | 030 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Hawai'i?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
12Source-listed players
11Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
90%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 7 | 3,257 | 3,257 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 5 | 2,695 | 2,695 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (5,952 minutes).
Dated school publications
10 announced additions
| Player | Evidence | Prior program | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Latest publication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bol Dengdit →College transfer | Addition announced ↗Hawaiʻi included Bol Dengdit in its June roster-addition update. | UC San DiegoUC San Diego · 2025–26 | 23.4 | 10.7 | Jun 9, 20261 dated record |
| Chance Trujillo →College transfer | Addition announced ↗Hawaiʻi included Chance Trujillo in its June roster-addition update. | Utah TechUtah Tech · 2025–26 | 32.9 | 12.3 | Jun 9, 20261 dated record |
| Houran Dan →College transfer | Addition announced ↗Hawaiʻi included Houran Dan in its June roster-addition update. | SeattleSeattle U · 2025–26 | 15.0 | 5.7 | Jun 9, 20261 dated record |
| Jaden MatingouCollege transfer | Addition announced ↗Hawaiʻi included Jaden Matingou in its June roster-addition update. No matching 2025–26 college box profile is available in this release. | Point Loma | — | — | Jun 9, 20261 dated record |
| Kellen Hampton →College transfer | Addition announced ↗Hawaiʻi included Kellen Hampton in its June roster-addition update. The school describes a prior Pacific redshirt season; the archive records one minute in one game. | PacificPacific · 2025–26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | Jun 9, 20261 dated record |
| Manie Joses →College transfer | Addition announced ↗Hawaiʻi included Manie Joses in its June roster-addition update. | DavidsonDavidson · 2025–26 | 9.5 | 1.8 | Jun 9, 20261 dated record |
| Marcus Adams Jr. →College transfer | Addition announced ↗Hawaiʻi included Marcus Adams Jr. in its June roster-addition update. | Arizona StateArizona St · 2025–26 | 11.7 | 3.6 | Jun 9, 20261 dated record |
| Scotty BelnapPrep addition | Addition announced ↗Hawaiʻi included Scotty Belnap in its June roster-addition update. | Mater Dei High School | — | — | Jun 9, 20261 dated record |
| Tiger CuffPrep addition | Addition announced ↗Hawaiʻi included Tiger Cuff in its June roster-addition update. | American Fork High School | — | — | Jun 9, 20261 dated record |
| Zack Davidson →College transfer | Addition announced ↗Hawaiʻi included Zack Davidson in its June roster-addition update. | Northern ArizonaN Arizona · 2025–26 | 23.6 | 14.0 | Jun 9, 20261 dated record |
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
12 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Erickson →G | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 31.4 | 8.4 | 56.6% |
| Dre Bullock →G | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 28.4 | 13.8 | 52.3% |
| Harry Rouhliadeff →F | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 25.5 | 10.7 | 64.1% |
| Gytis Nemeiksa →F | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 23.8 | 9.2 | 53.7% |
| Isaac Finlinson →F | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 22.7 | 9.2 | 59.3% |
| Isaiah Kerr →G | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 20.7 | 6.4 | 51.9% |
| Aaron Hunkin-Claytor →G | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 28.2 | 6.0 | 51.2% |
| Yacine Toumi →F | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 10.3 | 4.3 | 59.1% |
| AJ Economou →G | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 5.9 | 1.5 | 38.3% |
| Jalen Myers →F | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 8.9 | 2.9 | 40.4% |
| Hunter Carter →G | Same programHawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 4.6 | 1.2 | 38.1% |
| Tanner Cuff →G | No prior appearance observedNo prior program listed | — | — | — |
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Hawai'i vs San José St
72.2Hawai'i
71.0San José St
San José St win estimate50.7%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-1.2
Projected total143.2
80% home-margin range-17.2 to 14.7
Estimated possessions66.8
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 4.3 pts
San José St attack 50.9% · Hawai'i defense 48.8%Hawai'i attack 51.2% · San José St defense 53.3%
Ball securityHome 1.3 pts
San José St attack 16.1% · Hawai'i defense 15.2%Hawai'i attack 18.8% · San José St defense 16.6%
Second chancesHome 5.6 pts
San José St attack 29.5% · Hawai'i defense 26.4%Hawai'i attack 29.8% · San José St defense 32.3%
Free-throw pressureAway 10.2 pts
San José St attack 31.4% · Hawai'i defense 34.4%Hawai'i attack 39.0% · San José St defense 31.9%
Provident Credit Union Event Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Hawai'i vs UC Davis
70.5Hawai'i
70.9UC Davis
UC Davis win estimate55.0%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin0.4
Projected total141.4
80% home-margin range-15.6 to 16.3
Estimated possessions69.7
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.5 pts
UC Davis attack 50.2% · Hawai'i defense 48.8%Hawai'i attack 51.2% · UC Davis defense 51.2%
Ball securityAway 4.3 pts
UC Davis attack 18.7% · Hawai'i defense 15.2%Hawai'i attack 18.8% · UC Davis defense 19.5%
Second chancesHome 2.9 pts
UC Davis attack 28.2% · Hawai'i defense 26.4%Hawai'i attack 29.8% · UC Davis defense 30.9%
Free-throw pressureHome 3.6 pts
UC Davis attack 39.2% · Hawai'i defense 34.4%Hawai'i attack 39.0% · UC Davis defense 37.8%
University Credit Union Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Hawai'i vs Nevada
65.7Hawai'i
75.1Nevada
Nevada win estimate76.8%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin9.5
Projected total140.8
80% home-margin range-6.5 to 25.4
Estimated possessions67.2
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 2.0 pts
Nevada attack 52.1% · Hawai'i defense 48.8%Hawai'i attack 51.2% · Nevada defense 49.8%
Ball securityHome 1.2 pts
Nevada attack 15.2% · Hawai'i defense 15.2%Hawai'i attack 18.8% · Nevada defense 17.5%
Second chancesHome 0.5 pts
Nevada attack 29.8% · Hawai'i defense 26.4%Hawai'i attack 29.8% · Nevada defense 27.0%
Free-throw pressureHome 5.9 pts
Nevada attack 42.3% · Hawai'i defense 34.4%Hawai'i attack 39.0% · Nevada defense 37.1%
Lawlor Events Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →