A relative strength
Turnovers forced
19.0% · rank 64 of 366 · 32 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Texas St
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.228
-4.6 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
19–132025–26 recorded finals
104.1Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
108.7Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.1Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Texas St.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
19–1332 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 67.8Mean opponent adj. net -4.8 · 30 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
50.9%32 games · higher is betterRank 223 / 366 · 39th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
50.9%32 games · lower is betterRank 181 / 366 · 51th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
18.4%32 games · lower is betterRank 300 / 366 · 18th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
19.0%32 games · higher is betterRank 64 / 366 · 83th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
34.6%32 games · higher is betterRank 65 / 366 · 82th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
27.8%32 games · lower is betterRank 69 / 366 · 81th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
34.6%32 games · higher is betterRank 192 / 366 · 48th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
38.9%32 games · lower is betterRank 298 / 366 · 19th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 107.7 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 103.4 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 51.4% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 50.3% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 33.0% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.6% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 24.8% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 37.8% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 75.9% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 70.3% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 48.4% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 43.8% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,213 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Offensive rebound rate
34.6% · rank 65 of 366 · 32 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
38.9% · rank 298 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Turnover rate
18.4% · rank 300 of 366 · 32 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 11 times in the selected window; Texas St won 6. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 6, 2026 · neutral vs Southern Miss · L 77–81 · offense 111.5 / defense 117.3
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern MissMar 6, 2026 · neutral | L 77–81 | 233 | 111.5 | 117.3 | 69.0 | 50.8 | 17.4 | 37.5 |
| App StateFeb 28, 2026 · home | W 60–57 | 151 | 98.7 | 93.8 | 60.8 | 50.0 | 14.8 | 20.7 |
| LouisianaFeb 21, 2026 · road | L 54–67 | 297 | 90.3 | 112.1 | 59.8 | 38.5 | 23.4 | 44.1 |
| South AlabamaFeb 20, 2026 · road | W 90–82 | 165 | 123.5 | 112.6 | 64.8 | 56.9 | 15.1 | 31.4 |
| UL MonroeFeb 14, 2026 · home | W 95–84 | 358 | 148.1 | 131.0 | 64.1 | 68.0 | 10.9 | 56.5 |
| TroyFeb 12, 2026 · home | W 74–62 | 123 | 116.2 | 97.4 | 63.7 | 61.7 | 22.0 | 28.6 |
| W MichiganFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 77–61 | 295 | 119.8 | 94.9 | 64.3 | 60.7 | 15.6 | 26.9 |
| GA SouthernFeb 5, 2026 · road | W 77–71 | 244 | 110.9 | 102.2 | 69.5 | 47.5 | 18.7 | 39.4 |
| Old DominionJan 31, 2026 · home | W 81–64 | 254 | 117.1 | 92.5 | 69.2 | 51.7 | 11.6 | 32.4 |
| MarshallJan 29, 2026 · home | W 72–68 | 172 | 104.6 | 98.7 | 68.9 | 50.9 | 18.9 | 30.6 |
| James MadisonJan 24, 2026 · road | L 57–82 | 155 | 90.3 | 130.0 | 63.1 | 36.8 | 11.1 | 27.5 |
| CoastalJan 23, 2026 · road | L 70–72 | 286 | 102.4 | 105.3 | 68.4 | 38.6 | 5.9 | 28.6 |
| Southern MissJan 17, 2026 · home | W 74–67 | 233 | 103.5 | 93.7 | 71.5 | 54.8 | 25.2 | 24.0 |
| LouisianaJan 15, 2026 · home | W 59–54 | 297 | 96.9 | 88.7 | 60.9 | 53.0 | 21.4 | 26.9 |
| Arkansas StJan 10, 2026 · road | L 82–83 | 126 | 105.7 | 106.9 | 77.6 | 54.1 | 20.6 | 25.0 |
| Southern MissJan 9, 2026 · road | L 70–80 | 233 | 91.0 | 104.0 | 68.4 | 44.4 | 18.2 | 26.8 |
| UL MonroeJan 3, 2026 · road | W 84–79 | 358 | 114.8 | 108.0 | 73.2 | 54.3 | 17.8 | 43.2 |
| TroyDec 31, 2025 · road | L 80–100 | 123 | 117.8 | 147.2 | 67.9 | 56.3 | 19.1 | 41.2 |
| South AlabamaDec 20, 2025 · home | W 67–65 | 165 | 102.4 | 99.3 | 65.5 | 39.2 | 18.3 | 46.3 |
| Arkansas StDec 18, 2025 · home | L 70–89 | 126 | 96.5 | 122.7 | 72.5 | 44.4 | 15.2 | 24.3 |
| SouthernDec 11, 2025 · home | W 86–83 | 282 | 108.3 | 104.6 | 79.4 | 58.3 | 23.9 | 31.0 |
| RiceDec 4, 2025 · road | L 72–77 | 224 | 106.0 | 113.4 | 67.9 | 46.0 | 16.2 | 37.5 |
| LehighNov 29, 2025 · neutral | L 74–78 | 291 | 105.2 | 110.9 | 62.5 | 45.2 | 19.9 | 44.4 |
| Seattle UNov 28, 2025 · neutral | L 52–66 | 120 | 85.3 | 108.3 | 60.9 | 41.1 | 23.0 | 37.1 |
| Texas LutheranNov 25, 2025 · home | W 93–41 | Unrated | 130.8 | 57.7 | 71.1 | 57.0 | 15.5 | 52.6 |
| Little RockNov 22, 2025 · home | W 65–56 | 275 | 100.7 | 86.7 | 64.6 | 56.0 | 26.3 | 39.3 |
| Abilene ChrstnNov 19, 2025 · home | W 63–49 | 248 | 99.6 | 77.5 | 63.2 | 51.1 | 30.0 | 41.4 |
| Texas SouthernNov 15, 2025 · home | W 77–67 | 320 | 108.5 | 94.4 | 71.0 | 58.9 | 23.9 | 32.0 |
| UTSANov 13, 2025 · home | W 80–69 | 312 | 113.6 | 98.0 | 70.4 | 44.8 | 12.8 | 43.9 |
| TulaneNov 8, 2025 · road | L 71–79 | 168 | 106.4 | 118.4 | 66.7 | 50.0 | 16.5 | 32.4 |
| Texas A&M-SANov 6, 2025 · home | W 114–55 | Unrated | 142.5 | 68.8 | 80.0 | 71.7 | 16.3 | 32.0 |
| Bowling GreenNov 4, 2025 · road | L 48–83 | 190 | 68.1 | 117.8 | 70.5 | 41.7 | 25.5 | 14.3 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ HallF | 32 | 30.0 | 15.6 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 59.7 | 25.3% | 32 | 1.2432 games | 1732 games |
| Mark DroneG | 30 | 30.5 | 14.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 52.0 | 27.3% | 30 | 1.0930 games | 9530 games |
| Kaden GumbsG | 32 | 28.3 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 57.3 | 17.5% | 32 | 1.3732 games | 4532 games |
| Kyndall DavisG | 29 | 24.2 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 46.5 | 15.7% | 29 | 1.0629 games | 8129 games |
| Franck EmmouG | 31 | 22.5 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 57.3 | 15.9% | 31 | 1.9031 games | 8131 games |
| Jalen BoldenG | 32 | 16.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 50.8 | 17.8% | 32 | 1.0532 games | 6832 games |
| Robert FieldsC | 30 | 15.6 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 59.5 | 15.7% | 30 | 0.5830 games | 130 games |
| Tay KnoxC | 32 | 14.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 56.1 | 11.7% | 32 | 0.5232 games | 032 games |
| Makai WillisC | 32 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 55.9 | 24.7% | 32 | 0.4732 games | 632 games |
| Dimp PernellG | 11 | 21.2 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 57.4 | 20.6% | 11 | 1.7511 games | 3211 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Texas St?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →