A relative strength
Turnovers forced
18.3% · rank 93 of 366 · 33 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Louisiana
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.297
-10.0 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
11–222025–26 recorded finals
99.8Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
109.9Adjusted defense · lower is better
66.2Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Louisiana.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
11–2233 recorded games · 33 paired efficiency samples · pace 64.1Mean opponent adj. net -2.7 · 33 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
47.1%33 games · higher is betterRank 345 / 366 · 6th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
52.6%33 games · lower is betterRank 274 / 366 · 25th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.8%33 games · lower is betterRank 192 / 366 · 48th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
18.3%33 games · higher is betterRank 93 / 366 · 75th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
28.3%33 games · higher is betterRank 275 / 366 · 25th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
32.3%33 games · lower is betterRank 292 / 366 · 20th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
28.7%33 games · higher is betterRank 332 / 366 · 9th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
45.8%33 games · lower is betterRank 358 / 366 · 2th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 99.3 | 33 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 110.2 | 33 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 44.8% | 33 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 52.2% | 33 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 33.6% | 33 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 35.6% | 33 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 40.5% | 33 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 36.2% | 33 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 70.4% | 33 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 72.8% | 33 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 45.9% | 33 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 49.7% | 33 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,129 source possession rows across 33 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnover rate
16.8% · rank 192 of 366 · 33 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Effective FG%
47.1% · rank 345 of 366 · 33 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
45.8% · rank 358 of 366 · 33 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 7 times in the selected window; Louisiana won 3. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 4, 2026 · neutral vs James Madison · L 72–87 · offense 101.2 / defense 122.3
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 33 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonMar 4, 2026 · neutral | L 72–87 | 155 | 101.2 | 122.3 | 71.2 | 46.0 | 11.2 | 23.1 |
| Georgia StMar 3, 2026 · neutral | W 84–75 | 293 | 121.3 | 108.3 | 69.3 | 47.5 | 13.0 | 45.0 |
| Arkansas StFeb 28, 2026 · road | L 58–81 | 126 | 76.7 | 107.1 | 75.7 | 35.9 | 11.9 | 18.4 |
| TroyFeb 25, 2026 · road | L 59–78 | 123 | 103.3 | 136.6 | 57.1 | 49.1 | 17.5 | 35.5 |
| Texas StFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 67–54 | 228 | 112.1 | 90.3 | 59.8 | 58.9 | 21.7 | 26.9 |
| Arkansas StFeb 20, 2026 · home | L 62–79 | 126 | 90.2 | 114.9 | 68.8 | 36.5 | 4.4 | 27.5 |
| Old DominionFeb 16, 2026 · road | L 72–83 | 254 | 108.1 | 124.6 | 66.6 | 45.0 | 12.0 | 35.9 |
| CoastalFeb 13, 2026 · home | L 65–69 | 286 | 93.0 | 98.7 | 69.9 | 40.2 | 14.3 | 23.5 |
| C MichiganFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 85–80 | 266 | 132.8 | 125.0 | 64.0 | 59.5 | 17.2 | 44.8 |
| James MadisonFeb 5, 2026 · road | W 64–61 | 155 | 113.0 | 107.7 | 56.7 | 47.5 | 14.1 | 37.8 |
| GA SouthernJan 31, 2026 · home | W 69–60 | 244 | 111.5 | 97.0 | 61.9 | 59.0 | 16.2 | 23.1 |
| Georgia StJan 30, 2026 · home | W 82–72 | 293 | 126.5 | 111.1 | 64.8 | 58.0 | 17.0 | 41.4 |
| App StateJan 22, 2026 · road | L 58–72 | 151 | 98.0 | 121.6 | 59.2 | 43.1 | 10.1 | 21.6 |
| South AlabamaJan 17, 2026 · road | W 59–56 | 165 | 102.9 | 97.7 | 57.3 | 51.8 | 12.2 | 15.6 |
| Texas StJan 15, 2026 · road | L 54–59 | 228 | 88.7 | 96.9 | 60.9 | 42.7 | 14.8 | 15.2 |
| TroyJan 10, 2026 · home | L 70–90 | 123 | 109.9 | 141.3 | 63.7 | 55.6 | 15.7 | 20.0 |
| UL MonroeJan 9, 2026 · home | W 85–79 | 358 | 119.2 | 110.8 | 71.3 | 56.6 | 21.0 | 48.6 |
| Southern MissJan 3, 2026 · home | L 67–74 | 233 | 98.6 | 108.9 | 67.9 | 50.0 | 20.6 | 29.0 |
| South AlabamaDec 31, 2025 · home | L 58–63 | 165 | 103.7 | 112.7 | 55.9 | 46.5 | 14.3 | 32.4 |
| Norfolk StDec 28, 2025 · home | W 63–54 | 252 | 107.0 | 91.7 | 58.9 | 51.0 | 11.9 | 25.8 |
| UL MonroeDec 20, 2025 · road | W 76–62 | 358 | 119.5 | 97.5 | 63.6 | 61.1 | 9.4 | 20.7 |
| Southern MissDec 19, 2025 · road | L 54–62 | 233 | 79.6 | 91.4 | 67.9 | 38.6 | 14.7 | 13.2 |
| Louisiana TechDec 13, 2025 · road | L 44–65 | 156 | 73.2 | 108.2 | 60.1 | 37.0 | 26.6 | 34.2 |
| UNC WilmingtonDec 6, 2025 · home | L 63–70 | 113 | 98.8 | 109.7 | 63.8 | 46.5 | 14.1 | 21.9 |
| LamarDec 4, 2025 · road | L 55–65 | 232 | 90.0 | 106.4 | 61.1 | 51.0 | 27.8 | 24.1 |
| Jackson StNov 29, 2025 · home | L 45–51 | 345 | 72.6 | 82.3 | 62.0 | 36.3 | 25.8 | 37.1 |
| UC DavisNov 25, 2025 · road | L 56–77 | 193 | 85.9 | 118.1 | 65.2 | 40.0 | 21.5 | 28.6 |
| Santa ClaraNov 22, 2025 · road | L 43–80 | 42 | 64.7 | 120.4 | 66.5 | 26.1 | 27.1 | 27.3 |
| StanfordNov 19, 2025 · road | L 66–93 | 77 | 92.5 | 130.3 | 71.4 | 50.9 | 19.6 | 18.2 |
| McNeeseNov 15, 2025 · road | L 62–88 | 70 | 92.9 | 131.9 | 66.7 | 38.9 | 25.5 | 40.5 |
| TulaneNov 12, 2025 · home | L 62–66 | 168 | 97.0 | 103.3 | 63.9 | 44.0 | 12.5 | 30.8 |
| SE LouisianaNov 8, 2025 · home | W 58–52 | 281 | 99.6 | 89.3 | 58.2 | 58.0 | 20.6 | 16.0 |
| Ball StateNov 4, 2025 · road | L 64–75 | 273 | 99.6 | 116.7 | 64.3 | 50.0 | 18.7 | 25.7 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian FinisterG | 31 | 32.5 | 14.9 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 55.8 | 25.3% | 31 | 1.0531 games | 10831 games |
| De'Vion LavergneG | 33 | 30.3 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 45.5 | 22.1% | 33 | 1.8233 games | 13133 games |
| Jaxon OlveraG | 33 | 29.2 | 13.7 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 48.5 | 30.7% | 33 | 0.7833 games | 16033 games |
| Milan MejiaG | 29 | 22.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 45.1 | 10.9% | 29 | 1.4329 games | 9729 games |
| Dariyus WoodsonF | 33 | 18.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 58.1 | 16.4% | 33 | 0.7933 games | 10133 games |
| Todd Jones Jr.F | 33 | 16.5 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 58.6 | 10.8% | 33 | 0.4333 games | 133 games |
| Karris BilalG | 21 | 20.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 43.6 | 17.2% | 21 | 1.0021 games | 4921 games |
| Joshua LewisF | 18 | 22.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 62.8 | 17.4% | 18 | 0.8118 games | 4518 games |
| Jeremiah EvansF | 32 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 54.9 | 18.0% | 32 | 0.3032 games | 032 games |
| Mike CollinsG | 31 | 9.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 30.4 | 15.2% | 31 | 3.1031 games | 2531 games |
| Kyran RatliffF | 31 | 8.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 41.6 | 9.1% | 31 | 1.0031 games | 1331 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Louisiana?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
18Source-listed players
15Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 4,411 | 4,411 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 8 | 2,188 | 2,188 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,599 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
18 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Finister →G | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 32.5 | 14.9 | 55.8% |
| De'Vion Lavergne →G | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 30.3 | 9.9 | 45.5% |
| Jaxon Olvera →G | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 29.2 | 13.7 | 48.5% |
| Milan Mejia →G | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 22.0 | 3.6 | 45.1% |
| Dariyus Woodson →F | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 18.8 | 5.8 | 58.1% |
| Todd Jones Jr. →F | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 16.5 | 3.1 | 58.6% |
| Karris Bilal →G | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 20.8 | 5.6 | 43.6% |
| Joshua Lewis →F | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 22.6 | 8.1 | 62.8% |
| Jeremiah Evans →F | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 10.9 | 3.0 | 54.9% |
| Mike Collins →G | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 9.2 | 1.4 | 30.4% |
| Kyran Ratliff →F | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 8.6 | 1.0 | 41.6% |
| Jamyron Keller →G | Same programLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 29.5 | 17.0 | 47.6% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Akron vs Louisiana
78.5Akron
68.3Louisiana
Louisiana win estimate27.8%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin-10.2
Projected total146.8
80% home-margin range-26.1 to 5.7
Estimated possessions68.1
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 4.4 pts
Louisiana attack 48.4% · Akron defense 50.9%Akron attack 54.4% · Louisiana defense 52.5%
Ball securityAway 1.5 pts
Louisiana attack 16.7% · Akron defense 17.7%Akron attack 16.2% · Louisiana defense 18.7%
Second chancesAway 0.6 pts
Louisiana attack 28.2% · Akron defense 28.8%Akron attack 31.6% · Louisiana defense 31.7%
Free-throw pressureHome 10.5 pts
Louisiana attack 30.3% · Akron defense 31.5%Akron attack 30.9% · Louisiana defense 42.7%
Cajundome
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Louisiana vs UL Monroe
72.5Louisiana
70.1UL Monroe
UL Monroe win estimate47.7%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-2.3
Projected total142.6
80% home-margin range-18.2 to 13.6
Estimated possessions67.5
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.5 pts
UL Monroe attack 47.2% · Louisiana defense 52.5%Louisiana attack 48.4% · UL Monroe defense 55.2%
Ball securityHome 2.1 pts
UL Monroe attack 17.1% · Louisiana defense 18.7%Louisiana attack 16.7% · UL Monroe defense 16.2%
Second chancesAway 0.4 pts
UL Monroe attack 27.5% · Louisiana defense 31.7%Louisiana attack 28.2% · UL Monroe defense 31.9%
Free-throw pressureAway 7.8 pts
UL Monroe attack 35.0% · Louisiana defense 42.7%Louisiana attack 30.3% · UL Monroe defense 30.1%
Fant-Ewing Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Marshall vs Louisiana
74.1Marshall
71.1Louisiana
Louisiana win estimate46.0%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-3.0
Projected total145.3
80% home-margin range-18.9 to 13.0
Estimated possessions68.2
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 1.8 pts
Louisiana attack 48.4% · Marshall defense 50.8%Marshall attack 51.8% · Louisiana defense 52.5%
Ball securityAway 1.4 pts
Louisiana attack 16.7% · Marshall defense 17.1%Marshall attack 16.9% · Louisiana defense 18.7%
Second chancesAway 1.8 pts
Louisiana attack 28.2% · Marshall defense 31.0%Marshall attack 30.7% · Louisiana defense 31.7%
Free-throw pressureHome 3.7 pts
Louisiana attack 30.3% · Marshall defense 38.3%Marshall attack 31.0% · Louisiana defense 42.7%
Cajundome
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →