A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
44.1% · rank 8 of 366 · 32 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
USC
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.72
+10.0 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
18–142025–26 recorded finals
111.9Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
101.9Adjusted defense · lower is better
70.1Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on USC.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
18–1432 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 71.0Mean opponent adj. net 11.2 · 31 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
50.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 240 / 366 · 35th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
49.8%32 games · lower is betterRank 116 / 366 · 68th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
17.2%32 games · lower is betterRank 223 / 366 · 39th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
16.5%32 games · higher is betterRank 203 / 366 · 45th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
33.3%32 games · higher is betterRank 103 / 366 · 72th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
31.5%32 games · lower is betterRank 259 / 366 · 29th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
44.1%32 games · higher is betterRank 8 / 366 · 98th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
33.0%32 games · lower is betterRank 146 / 366 · 60th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 108.5 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 107.6 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 52.5% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.5% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 31.4% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 31.6% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 33.6% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 40.6% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 72.4% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 77.4% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 57.2% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 54.7% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,321 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Offensive rebound rate
33.3% · rank 103 of 366 · 32 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Effective FG%
50.7% · rank 240 of 366 · 32 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Opponent offensive rebound rate
31.5% · rank 259 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 12 times in the selected window; USC won 8. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 11, 2026 · neutral vs Washington · L 79–83 · offense 97.8 / defense 102.7
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WashingtonMar 11, 2026 · neutral | L 79–83 | 66 | 97.8 | 102.7 | 71.8 | 50.0 | 16.1 | 23.1 |
| UCLAMar 8, 2026 · home | L 68–89 | 27 | 108.7 | 142.2 | 62.6 | 49.1 | 9.6 | 21.2 |
| WashingtonMar 5, 2026 · road | L 72–91 | 66 | 94.7 | 119.7 | 76.0 | 40.6 | 15.8 | 30.8 |
| NebraskaFeb 28, 2026 · home | L 67–82 | 24 | 97.3 | 119.1 | 68.8 | 49.0 | 20.3 | 17.9 |
| UCLAFeb 25, 2026 · road | L 62–81 | 27 | 94.5 | 123.4 | 65.6 | 41.7 | 21.3 | 42.5 |
| OregonFeb 21, 2026 · home | L 70–71 | 61 | 99.8 | 101.3 | 70.1 | 43.3 | 15.7 | 34.2 |
| IllinoisFeb 19, 2026 · home | L 65–101 | 7 | 91.0 | 141.4 | 71.4 | 42.7 | 19.6 | 31.7 |
| Ohio StateFeb 11, 2026 · road | L 82–89 | 25 | 111.9 | 121.5 | 73.3 | 46.8 | 13.6 | 36.8 |
| Penn StateFeb 8, 2026 · road | W 77–75 | 103 | 106.4 | 103.7 | 72.3 | 53.3 | 20.7 | 35.3 |
| IndianaFeb 4, 2026 · home | W 81–75 | 44 | 111.5 | 103.2 | 72.7 | 51.9 | 20.6 | 39.3 |
| RutgersFeb 1, 2026 · home | W 78–75 | 107 | 110.7 | 106.4 | 70.5 | 54.9 | 24.1 | 42.9 |
| IowaJan 29, 2026 · road | L 72–73 | 28 | 105.8 | 107.3 | 68.0 | 57.5 | 22.1 | 28.6 |
| WisconsinJan 25, 2026 · road | W 73–71 | 21 | 113.7 | 110.6 | 64.2 | 45.9 | 7.8 | 35.1 |
| NorthwesternJan 22, 2026 · home | L 68–74 | 53 | 100.8 | 109.6 | 67.5 | 40.4 | 8.9 | 32.4 |
| PurdueJan 17, 2026 · home | L 64–69 | 9 | 92.7 | 99.9 | 69.1 | 48.4 | 18.8 | 27.8 |
| MarylandJan 14, 2026 · home | W 88–71 | 63 | 130.0 | 104.9 | 67.7 | 57.6 | 8.9 | 39.4 |
| MinnesotaJan 10, 2026 · road | W 70–69 | 91 | 106.7 | 105.2 | 58.3 | 49.1 | 24.4 | 45.5 |
| Michigan StJan 6, 2026 · road | L 51–80 | 13 | 71.8 | 112.6 | 71.1 | 35.5 | 23.9 | 21.6 |
| MichiganJan 3, 2026 · road | L 66–96 | 6 | 78.9 | 114.8 | 83.6 | 38.8 | 25.1 | 27.5 |
| UC Santa CruzDec 21, 2025 · home | W 102–63 | Unrated | 140.7 | 86.9 | 72.5 | 58.5 | 12.4 | 61.8 |
| UTSADec 18, 2025 · home | W 97–70 | 312 | 130.9 | 94.5 | 74.1 | 62.5 | 14.8 | 37.0 |
| Washington StDec 15, 2025 · home | W 68–61 | 117 | 96.6 | 86.6 | 70.4 | 41.0 | 15.6 | 17.2 |
| San DiegoDec 10, 2025 · road | W 94–81 | 263 | 119.7 | 103.2 | 78.5 | 71.3 | 26.7 | 24.0 |
| WashingtonDec 6, 2025 · home | L 76–84 | 66 | 104.0 | 114.9 | 73.1 | 43.3 | 10.9 | 22.5 |
| OregonDec 3, 2025 · road | W 82–77 | 61 | 119.5 | 112.2 | 68.6 | 58.2 | 21.9 | 45.2 |
| Arizona StNov 26, 2025 · neutral | W 88–75 | 84 | 133.0 | 113.3 | 66.2 | 67.5 | 18.1 | 50.0 |
| Seton HallNov 25, 2025 · neutral | W 83–81 | 78 | 119.8 | 116.9 | 69.3 | 56.5 | 23.1 | 40.7 |
| Boise StNov 24, 2025 · neutral | W 70–67 | 50 | 100.5 | 96.2 | 69.7 | 54.6 | 18.7 | 22.6 |
| TroyNov 21, 2025 · home | W 107–106 | 123 | 106.2 | 105.2 | 73.3 | 48.7 | 12.9 | 15.6 |
| Illinois StNov 15, 2025 · neutral | W 87–67 | 112 | 126.3 | 97.2 | 68.9 | 56.1 | 5.8 | 31.3 |
| ManhattanNov 9, 2025 · home | W 114–83 | 323 | 138.8 | 101.0 | 82.2 | 55.6 | 14.6 | 52.2 |
| Cal PolyNov 4, 2025 · home | W 94–64 | 246 | 113.5 | 77.2 | 82.9 | 53.2 | 16.9 | 36.1 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob CofieF | 32 | 30.4 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 56.5 | 16.8% | 32 | 1.1732 games | 6632 games |
| Ezra AusarF | 32 | 29.8 | 14.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 62.0 | 23.0% | 32 | 0.8232 games | 232 games |
| Chad Baker-MazaraG | 26 | 29.6 | 18.5 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 59.8 | 29.4% | 26 | 1.1826 games | 16026 games |
| Kam WoodsG | 20 | 31.4 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 46.9 | 17.9% | 20 | 2.0520 games | 4220 games |
| Jordan MarshG | 28 | 18.3 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 54.9 | 20.2% | 28 | 1.6828 games | 8428 games |
| Jerry Easter IIG | 28 | 17.9 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 50.2 | 14.8% | 28 | 1.2428 games | 1728 games |
| Terrance Williams IIF | 30 | 13.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 43.9 | 9.7% | 30 | 4.2530 games | 2930 games |
| Alijah ArenasG | 14 | 27.6 | 14.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 45.3 | 31.9% | 14 | 0.9114 games | 6114 games |
| Gabe DynesC | 30 | 11.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 73.2 | 11.0% | 30 | 0.6230 games | 030 games |
| Jaden BrownellF | 30 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 51.2 | 23.3% | 30 | 0.6730 games | 8530 games |
| Ryan CornishG | 25 | 11.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 54.3 | 11.8% | 25 | 1.8225 games | 3425 games |
| Rodney RiceG | 6 | 34.0 | 20.3 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 53.7 | 28.7% | 6 | 3.276 games | 396 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around USC?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →