A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
26.7% · rank 42 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Long Beach St
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.265
-7.5 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
10–222025–26 recorded finals
103.0Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
110.5Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.9Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Long Beach St.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
10–2232 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 71.3Mean opponent adj. net -0.4 · 30 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
51.4%32 games · higher is betterRank 203 / 366 · 45th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
53.0%32 games · lower is betterRank 293 / 366 · 20th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
17.7%32 games · lower is betterRank 265 / 366 · 28th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
18.1%32 games · higher is betterRank 103 / 366 · 72th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
27.0%32 games · higher is betterRank 311 / 366 · 15th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
26.7%32 games · lower is betterRank 42 / 366 · 89th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
30.2%32 games · higher is betterRank 297 / 366 · 19th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
41.3%32 games · lower is betterRank 327 / 366 · 11th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 103.8 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 107.8 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 52.2% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 53.7% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 33.1% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.5% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 34.2% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 34.8% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 72.6% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 75.1% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 47.6% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 52.3% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,325 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnovers forced
18.1% · rank 103 of 366 · 32 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
27.0% · rank 311 of 366 · 32 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
41.3% · rank 327 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 9 times in the selected window; Long Beach St won 3. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 8, 2026 · road vs Hawai'i · W 84–75 · offense 109.6 / defense 97.9
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'iMar 8, 2026 · road | W 84–75 | 136 | 109.6 | 97.9 | 76.6 | 63.7 | 18.3 | 15.4 |
| UC DavisMar 6, 2026 · home | L 70–76 | 193 | 88.2 | 95.7 | 70.6 | 45.6 | 18.9 | 26.7 |
| BakersfieldMar 1, 2026 · road | W 88–87 | 311 | 118.6 | 117.3 | 74.2 | 69.4 | 22.9 | 23.1 |
| Cal PolyFeb 27, 2026 · road | L 92–102 | 246 | 114.6 | 127.1 | 80.3 | 52.7 | 10.0 | 22.5 |
| CSU NorthridgeFeb 22, 2026 · home | L 76–78 | 171 | 105.9 | 108.7 | 71.8 | 53.4 | 18.1 | 27.3 |
| UC IrvineFeb 20, 2026 · home | L 58–69 | 95 | 78.7 | 93.6 | 73.7 | 33.3 | 21.7 | 33.3 |
| UC DavisFeb 14, 2026 · road | L 54–71 | 193 | 76.6 | 100.8 | 70.5 | 38.8 | 22.7 | 25.0 |
| FullertonFeb 13, 2026 · home | L 82–86 | 255 | 110.5 | 115.9 | 74.2 | 62.5 | 20.2 | 11.5 |
| UC San DiegoFeb 6, 2026 · road | L 74–77 | 97 | 99.1 | 103.2 | 74.6 | 52.8 | 16.1 | 3.2 |
| Hawai'iJan 31, 2026 · home | L 82–89 | 136 | 113.7 | 123.4 | 72.1 | 48.5 | 15.2 | 40.0 |
| UC RiversideJan 30, 2026 · road | L 61–71 | 241 | 88.2 | 102.7 | 69.2 | 44.5 | 23.1 | 34.2 |
| Santa BarbaraJan 25, 2026 · home | L 71–74 | 143 | 113.4 | 118.2 | 62.6 | 55.9 | 12.8 | 15.4 |
| FullertonJan 23, 2026 · road | L 61–71 | 255 | 89.6 | 104.3 | 68.1 | 44.4 | 25.0 | 25.7 |
| CSU NorthridgeJan 18, 2026 · road | W 87–80 | 171 | 110.1 | 101.2 | 79.0 | 55.2 | 16.4 | 17.6 |
| UC RiversideJan 16, 2026 · home | W 88–73 | 241 | 129.5 | 107.4 | 68.0 | 63.8 | 11.8 | 28.6 |
| BakersfieldJan 11, 2026 · home | W 81–75 | 311 | 107.1 | 99.2 | 75.6 | 55.7 | 21.2 | 23.3 |
| UC IrvineJan 9, 2026 · road | L 64–74 | 95 | 89.8 | 103.9 | 71.2 | 45.0 | 18.2 | 18.9 |
| Cal PolyJan 4, 2026 · home | W 74–66 | 246 | 104.3 | 93.0 | 71.0 | 53.4 | 16.9 | 21.2 |
| Lincoln (CA)Dec 31, 2025 · home | W 113–66 | Unrated | 140.0 | 81.8 | 80.7 | 69.1 | 12.4 | 37.9 |
| Iowa StateDec 21, 2025 · road | L 60–91 | 5 | 81.5 | 123.6 | 73.7 | 42.1 | 19.0 | 17.9 |
| PepperdineDec 19, 2025 · home | W 81–78 | 261 | 115.9 | 111.6 | 69.9 | 58.9 | 12.9 | 17.2 |
| San José StDec 10, 2025 · road | L 83–89 | 226 | 116.5 | 124.9 | 63.3 | 53.0 | 21.1 | 50.0 |
| UC San DiegoDec 7, 2025 · home | L 74–80 | 97 | 109.1 | 118.0 | 67.8 | 53.2 | 13.3 | 25.0 |
| Santa BarbaraDec 5, 2025 · road | L 77–84 | 143 | 104.4 | 113.9 | 65.5 | 43.9 | 17.6 | 38.6 |
| San DiegoNov 30, 2025 · home | W 76–72 | 263 | 120.6 | 114.2 | 63.0 | 56.3 | 11.1 | 38.7 |
| PortlandNov 27, 2025 · road | L 73–93 | 258 | 101.7 | 129.6 | 71.8 | 49.2 | 18.1 | 27.0 |
| Montana StNov 22, 2025 · home | L 72–78 | 163 | 104.3 | 113.0 | 69.1 | 49.2 | 15.9 | 29.4 |
| NobelNov 20, 2025 · home | W 87–54 | Unrated | 113.4 | 70.4 | 76.7 | 50.7 | 15.6 | 38.5 |
| Illinois StNov 17, 2025 · home | L 80–82 | 112 | 117.6 | 120.5 | 68.0 | 55.6 | 8.8 | 27.8 |
| PacificNov 13, 2025 · road | L 66–69 | 207 | 96.2 | 100.6 | 68.6 | 48.2 | 18.9 | 27.5 |
| Fresno StNov 8, 2025 · road | L 62–82 | 188 | 86.6 | 114.5 | 71.6 | 41.5 | 22.3 | 22.2 |
| San Diego StNov 5, 2025 · road | L 45–77 | 43 | 63.2 | 108.1 | 71.2 | 36.4 | 29.5 | 31.6 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petar MajstorovicF | 32 | 31.1 | 14.4 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 60.1 | 22.7% | 32 | 0.8032 games | 9832 games |
| Gavin SykesG | 28 | 32.9 | 19.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 59.5 | 26.5% | 28 | 1.3028 games | 16828 games |
| Isaiah LewisG | 32 | 22.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 46.9 | 18.0% | 32 | 1.4032 games | 6632 games |
| Rob Diaz IIIG | 32 | 21.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 53.9 | 19.4% | 32 | 2.5232 games | 7032 games |
| Shaquil BenderG | 31 | 21.8 | 10.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 51.4 | 28.2% | 31 | 0.6931 games | 13431 games |
| Cole FarrellG | 32 | 20.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 46.5 | 19.1% | 32 | 1.1432 games | 5132 games |
| Leopold LevillainF | 30 | 19.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 59.0 | 14.3% | 30 | 0.6830 games | 030 games |
| Shay Johnson Jr.F | 31 | 16.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 68.0 | 7.4% | 31 | 1.1031 games | 131 games |
| Dallas WashingtonF | 23 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 38.2 | 19.3% | 23 | 0.6923 games | 3323 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Long Beach St?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
15Source-listed players
13Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 9 | 3,862 | 3,862 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 6 | 2,613 | 2,613 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,475 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
15 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petar Majstorovic →F | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 31.1 | 14.4 | 60.1% |
| Gavin Sykes →G | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 32.9 | 19.4 | 59.5% |
| Isaiah Lewis →G | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 22.1 | 6.0 | 46.9% |
| Rob Diaz III →G | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 21.9 | 8.1 | 53.9% |
| Shaquil Bender →G | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 21.8 | 10.8 | 51.4% |
| Cole Farrell →G | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 20.7 | 6.4 | 46.5% |
| Leopold Levillain →F | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 19.3 | 4.8 | 59.0% |
| Shay Johnson Jr. →F | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 16.0 | 2.4 | 68.0% |
| Dallas Washington →F | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 11.0 | 2.8 | 38.2% |
| Christian Jones →G | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 10.3 | 3.4 | 57.1% |
| Derrick Michael Xzavierro →F | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 8.2 | 2.2 | 56.3% |
| JJ Chaikovsky →F | Same programLong Beach State Beach | 7.4 | 0.8 | 50.0% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Long Beach St vs San José St
70.9Long Beach St
76.1San José St
San José St win estimate67.7%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin5.3
Projected total147.0
80% home-margin range-10.7 to 21.2
Estimated possessions66.9
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.2 pts
San José St attack 50.9% · Long Beach St defense 52.8%Long Beach St attack 50.3% · San José St defense 53.3%
Ball securityHome 2.8 pts
San José St attack 16.1% · Long Beach St defense 17.1%Long Beach St attack 18.4% · San José St defense 16.6%
Second chancesHome 2.8 pts
San José St attack 29.5% · Long Beach St defense 29.9%Long Beach St attack 29.0% · San José St defense 32.3%
Free-throw pressureAway 8.2 pts
San José St attack 31.4% · Long Beach St defense 37.1%Long Beach St attack 34.4% · San José St defense 31.9%
Provident Credit Union Event Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →