A relative strength
Turnover rate
15.4% · rank 99 of 366 · 33 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Old Dominion
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.254
-7.0 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
12–212025–26 recorded finals
103.3Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
110.2Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.9Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Old Dominion.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
12–2133 recorded games · 33 paired efficiency samples · pace 70.4Mean opponent adj. net -2.3 · 32 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
50.8%33 games · higher is betterRank 233 / 366 · 36th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
50.2%33 games · lower is betterRank 138 / 366 · 62th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
15.4%33 games · lower is betterRank 99 / 366 · 73th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
14.5%33 games · higher is betterRank 325 / 366 · 11th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
26.5%33 games · higher is betterRank 331 / 366 · 10th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
29.9%33 games · lower is betterRank 177 / 366 · 52th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
34.7%33 games · higher is betterRank 187 / 366 · 49th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
41.6%33 games · lower is betterRank 331 / 366 · 10th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 107.4 | 33 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 109.8 | 33 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 49.5% | 33 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.3% | 33 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 35.4% | 33 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 32.1% | 33 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 36.2% | 33 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 36.3% | 33 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 73.4% | 33 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 74.0% | 33 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 49.2% | 33 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 51.4% | 33 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,352 source possession rows across 33 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent effective FG%
50.2% · rank 138 of 366 · 33 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
26.5% · rank 331 of 366 · 33 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
41.6% · rank 331 of 366 · 33 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 11 times in the selected window; Old Dominion won 4. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 5, 2026 · neutral vs GA Southern · L 84–88 · offense 121.6 / defense 127.4
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 33 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA SouthernMar 5, 2026 · neutral | L 84–88 | 244 | 121.6 | 127.4 | 69.1 | 56.3 | 15.9 | 28.1 |
| UL MonroeMar 4, 2026 · neutral | W 87–80 | 358 | 124.6 | 114.6 | 69.8 | 60.8 | 11.5 | 25.7 |
| Georgia StFeb 28, 2026 · road | W 81–73 | 293 | 109.9 | 99.1 | 73.7 | 54.7 | 17.6 | 20.7 |
| MarshallFeb 25, 2026 · road | L 88–97 | 172 | 122.0 | 134.5 | 72.1 | 50.0 | 11.1 | 37.8 |
| Southern MissFeb 21, 2026 · road | L 81–86 | 233 | 100.0 | 106.1 | 81.0 | 51.7 | 23.4 | 26.5 |
| LouisianaFeb 16, 2026 · home | W 83–72 | 297 | 124.6 | 108.1 | 66.6 | 60.8 | 12.0 | 16.0 |
| Georgia StFeb 14, 2026 · home | W 78–55 | 293 | 120.8 | 85.2 | 64.6 | 61.8 | 18.6 | 40.7 |
| MarshallFeb 12, 2026 · home | L 79–81 | 172 | 111.9 | 114.7 | 70.6 | 56.3 | 12.7 | 20.6 |
| OhioFeb 8, 2026 · home | W 78–72 | 189 | 120.3 | 111.0 | 64.8 | 50.0 | 9.3 | 32.4 |
| UL MonroeFeb 5, 2026 · home | L 79–85 | 358 | 106.8 | 115.0 | 73.9 | 48.4 | 13.5 | 28.2 |
| Texas StJan 31, 2026 · road | L 64–81 | 228 | 92.5 | 117.1 | 69.2 | 37.7 | 20.2 | 33.3 |
| Arkansas StJan 29, 2026 · road | W 75–71 | 126 | 103.6 | 98.1 | 72.4 | 51.6 | 12.4 | 13.9 |
| TroyJan 22, 2026 · home | L 77–83 | 123 | 94.5 | 101.8 | 65.2 | 46.1 | 14.7 | 16.7 |
| App StateJan 17, 2026 · road | W 75–73 | 151 | 115.6 | 112.5 | 64.9 | 62.2 | 15.4 | 17.9 |
| GA SouthernJan 16, 2026 · road | L 84–87 | 244 | 118.0 | 122.2 | 71.2 | 56.9 | 15.4 | 33.3 |
| James MadisonJan 10, 2026 · road | L 69–70 | 155 | 99.7 | 101.2 | 69.2 | 44.4 | 10.1 | 20.9 |
| CoastalJan 9, 2026 · road | W 70–66 | 286 | 101.7 | 95.8 | 68.9 | 50.8 | 17.4 | 34.1 |
| GA SouthernJan 3, 2026 · home | L 86–93 | 244 | 106.7 | 115.4 | 80.6 | 44.0 | 9.9 | 27.1 |
| App StateDec 31, 2025 · home | L 73–81 | 151 | 110.0 | 122.0 | 66.4 | 50.8 | 12.1 | 25.0 |
| MarylandDec 28, 2025 · road | L 58–73 | 63 | 85.2 | 107.3 | 68.1 | 40.4 | 19.1 | 28.2 |
| CoastalDec 20, 2025 · home | L 74–76 | 286 | 101.1 | 103.8 | 73.2 | 52.7 | 17.8 | 16.1 |
| James MadisonDec 18, 2025 · home | W 77–68 | 155 | 114.7 | 101.3 | 67.1 | 47.2 | 8.9 | 21.6 |
| George MasonDec 13, 2025 · road | L 61–73 | 90 | 85.7 | 102.5 | 71.2 | 47.2 | 22.5 | 18.2 |
| RichmondDec 6, 2025 · road | L 77–86 | 162 | 102.1 | 114.1 | 75.4 | 42.4 | 9.3 | 27.7 |
| William & MaryNov 30, 2025 · road | L 75–88 | 195 | 94.7 | 111.1 | 79.2 | 48.5 | 20.2 | 13.9 |
| VillanovaNov 26, 2025 · road | L 75–89 | 36 | 113.0 | 134.0 | 66.4 | 55.7 | 15.1 | 21.9 |
| DrexelNov 23, 2025 · road | L 71–75 | 185 | 107.9 | 114.0 | 65.8 | 50.0 | 13.7 | 31.6 |
| Morgan StNov 22, 2025 · home | W 88–56 | 351 | 132.0 | 84.0 | 66.7 | 56.7 | 10.5 | 35.3 |
| XavierNov 19, 2025 · road | L 69–99 | 68 | 92.6 | 132.9 | 74.5 | 46.0 | 18.8 | 23.7 |
| G WashingtonNov 15, 2025 · road | L 73–96 | 110 | 99.3 | 130.6 | 73.5 | 46.8 | 21.8 | 39.0 |
| Norfolk StNov 12, 2025 · home | W 60–57 | 252 | 100.7 | 95.6 | 59.6 | 45.1 | 15.1 | 30.0 |
| RandolphNov 7, 2025 · home | W 93–53 | Unrated | 124.5 | 70.9 | 74.7 | 55.1 | 13.4 | 42.9 |
| Miami OHNov 4, 2025 · road | L 72–87 | 119 | 96.4 | 116.4 | 74.7 | 55.7 | 25.4 | 16.7 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan BattleG | 33 | 32.8 | 15.4 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 61.5 | 22.1% | 33 | 1.5133 games | 18433 games |
| KC ShawG | 29 | 31.2 | 16.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 51.4 | 29.6% | 29 | 1.0329 games | 2329 games |
| LJ ThomasG | 30 | 27.6 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 52.4 | 22.9% | 30 | 1.6830 games | 3130 games |
| Robert Davis Jr.G | 26 | 29.6 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 46.7 | 19.2% | 26 | 1.3226 games | 17926 games |
| Jared TurnerF | 33 | 20.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 56.9 | 13.7% | 33 | 2.2333 games | 14433 games |
| Caelum Swanton-RodgerF | 31 | 20.5 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 63.0 | 19.4% | 31 | 0.5731 games | 231 games |
| Zacch WigginsG | 33 | 18.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 57.6 | 15.7% | 33 | 1.7133 games | 5133 games |
| Scottie HubbardG | 32 | 16.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 48.3 | 12.3% | 32 | 0.7032 games | 6832 games |
| Drew McKennaG | 26 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 48.6 | 20.4% | 26 | 1.1726 games | 2826 games |
| Donovan RaymondF | 31 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 61.2 | 11.7% | 31 | 0.6731 games | 031 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Old Dominion?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
16Source-listed players
14Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 5,056 | 5,056 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 6 | 1,594 | 1,594 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,650 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
16 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Battle →G | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 32.8 | 15.4 | 61.5% |
| KC Shaw →G | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 31.2 | 16.8 | 51.4% |
| LJ Thomas →G | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 27.6 | 11.3 | 52.4% |
| Robert Davis Jr. →G | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 29.6 | 9.6 | 46.7% |
| Jared Turner →F | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 20.9 | 6.1 | 56.9% |
| Caelum Swanton-Rodger →F | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 20.5 | 8.2 | 63.0% |
| Zacch Wiggins →G | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 18.6 | 6.1 | 57.6% |
| Scottie Hubbard →G | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 16.0 | 3.1 | 48.3% |
| Drew McKenna →G | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 11.0 | 4.0 | 48.6% |
| Donovan Raymond →F | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 6.5 | 1.5 | 61.2% |
| Ben Nacey →F | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 7.6 | 2.3 | 59.3% |
| Rieco Hellams →G | Same programOld Dominion Monarchs | 2.8 | 0.3 | 40.4% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
W Michigan vs Old Dominion
72.2W Michigan
77.3Old Dominion
Old Dominion win estimate67.4%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin5.2
Projected total149.5
80% home-margin range-10.8 to 21.1
Estimated possessions69.1
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 2.2 pts
Old Dominion attack 48.7% · W Michigan defense 53.5%W Michigan attack 48.7% · Old Dominion defense 51.3%
Ball securityHome 0.1 pts
Old Dominion attack 16.3% · W Michigan defense 15.3%W Michigan attack 17.1% · Old Dominion defense 16.0%
Second chancesAway 1.3 pts
Old Dominion attack 28.9% · W Michigan defense 29.1%W Michigan attack 31.5% · Old Dominion defense 30.5%
Free-throw pressureHome 3.6 pts
Old Dominion attack 32.8% · W Michigan defense 34.9%W Michigan attack 32.9% · Old Dominion defense 38.7%
Chartway Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Richmond vs Old Dominion
73.7Richmond
71.9Old Dominion
Old Dominion win estimate49.1%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-1.8
Projected total145.6
80% home-margin range-17.7 to 14.1
Estimated possessions68.1
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 2.7 pts
Old Dominion attack 48.7% · Richmond defense 50.9%Richmond attack 51.8% · Old Dominion defense 51.3%
Ball securityAway 0.4 pts
Old Dominion attack 16.3% · Richmond defense 16.7%Richmond attack 15.2% · Old Dominion defense 16.0%
Second chancesHome 7.7 pts
Old Dominion attack 28.9% · Richmond defense 28.8%Richmond attack 22.9% · Old Dominion defense 30.5%
Free-throw pressureHome 3.6 pts
Old Dominion attack 32.8% · Richmond defense 33.7%Richmond attack 34.2% · Old Dominion defense 38.7%
Chartway Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Old Dominion vs Marshall
72.8Old Dominion
80.7Marshall
Marshall win estimate73.6%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin7.9
Projected total153.6
80% home-margin range-8.1 to 23.8
Estimated possessions70.8
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 2.7 pts
Marshall attack 51.8% · Old Dominion defense 51.3%Old Dominion attack 48.7% · Marshall defense 50.8%
Ball securityAway 1.6 pts
Marshall attack 16.9% · Old Dominion defense 16.0%Old Dominion attack 16.3% · Marshall defense 17.1%
Second chancesHome 2.3 pts
Marshall attack 30.7% · Old Dominion defense 30.5%Old Dominion attack 28.9% · Marshall defense 31.0%
Free-throw pressureAway 2.3 pts
Marshall attack 31.0% · Old Dominion defense 38.7%Old Dominion attack 32.8% · Marshall defense 38.3%
Cam Henderson Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →