A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
28.0% · rank 80 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Jacksonville
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.287
-8.7 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
12–202025–26 recorded finals
101.5Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
110.2Adjusted defense · lower is better
66.1Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Jacksonville.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
12–2032 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 66.0Mean opponent adj. net -5.2 · 30 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
51.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 189 / 366 · 48th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
52.9%32 games · lower is betterRank 287 / 366 · 22th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.9%32 games · lower is betterRank 198 / 366 · 46th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
15.5%32 games · higher is betterRank 270 / 366 · 26th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
33.6%32 games · higher is betterRank 96 / 366 · 74th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
28.0%32 games · lower is betterRank 80 / 366 · 78th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
33.6%32 games · higher is betterRank 219 / 366 · 40th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
42.3%32 games · lower is betterRank 338 / 366 · 8th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 109.8 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 110.3 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 53.3% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 53.8% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 32.7% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.3% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 37.9% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 35.3% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 71.8% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 70.3% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 46.2% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 50.0% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,144 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Offensive rebound rate
33.6% · rank 96 of 366 · 32 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Opponent effective FG%
52.9% · rank 287 of 366 · 32 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
42.3% · rank 338 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 12 times in the selected window; Jacksonville won 6. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 4, 2026 · neutral vs Bellarmine · L 79–82 · offense 123.8 / defense 128.6
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BellarmineMar 4, 2026 · neutral | L 79–82 | 317 | 123.8 | 128.6 | 63.8 | 51.5 | 7.8 | 39.5 |
| North FloridaFeb 28, 2026 · road | W 85–61 | 321 | 123.1 | 88.3 | 69.1 | 58.5 | 18.8 | 53.3 |
| StetsonFeb 27, 2026 · home | W 89–85 | 326 | 132.3 | 126.3 | 67.3 | 48.4 | 8.9 | 45.2 |
| Austin PeayFeb 22, 2026 · home | L 61–65 | 216 | 101.0 | 107.6 | 60.4 | 40.7 | 13.2 | 35.3 |
| FGCUFeb 19, 2026 · road | L 84–86 | 219 | 127.6 | 130.6 | 65.8 | 67.3 | 12.2 | 20.7 |
| North FloridaFeb 14, 2026 · home | W 63–56 | 321 | 108.2 | 96.1 | 58.3 | 51.0 | 13.7 | 26.9 |
| StetsonFeb 12, 2026 · road | L 62–67 | 326 | 99.0 | 107.0 | 62.6 | 40.0 | 14.4 | 36.6 |
| West GeorgiaFeb 7, 2026 · road | L 73–87 | 325 | 108.1 | 128.8 | 67.5 | 49.1 | 16.3 | 34.3 |
| QueensFeb 6, 2026 · road | L 84–93 | 205 | 119.0 | 131.8 | 70.6 | 57.8 | 17.0 | 24.0 |
| FGCUJan 31, 2026 · home | L 49–68 | 219 | 74.2 | 103.0 | 66.0 | 38.0 | 24.2 | 25.6 |
| LipscombJan 30, 2026 · home | W 70–65 | 144 | 115.8 | 107.5 | 60.4 | 54.7 | 11.6 | 28.6 |
| E KentuckyJan 24, 2026 · home | W 81–76 | 256 | 117.8 | 110.5 | 61.1 | 55.8 | 20.4 | 39.3 |
| BellarmineJan 23, 2026 · home | L 70–77 | 317 | 112.2 | 123.5 | 62.4 | 53.0 | 12.8 | 20.8 |
| North AlabamaJan 17, 2026 · road | W 90–68 | 290 | 133.5 | 100.9 | 67.4 | 62.7 | 14.8 | 34.6 |
| C ArkansasJan 16, 2026 · road | L 60–62 | 259 | 101.7 | 105.0 | 59.0 | 37.3 | 10.2 | 38.6 |
| West GeorgiaJan 10, 2026 · home | W 75–43 | 325 | 126.5 | 72.5 | 59.3 | 63.0 | 8.4 | 13.0 |
| QueensJan 9, 2026 · home | L 51–77 | 205 | 78.1 | 117.9 | 65.3 | 40.4 | 19.9 | 32.4 |
| Austin PeayJan 3, 2026 · road | L 68–71 | 216 | 98.6 | 102.9 | 69.0 | 55.9 | 24.6 | 29.0 |
| LipscombJan 1, 2026 · road | L 57–76 | 144 | 96.7 | 128.9 | 59.0 | 48.0 | 25.4 | 37.5 |
| Florida StDec 23, 2025 · road | L 63–87 | 81 | 96.9 | 133.8 | 65.0 | 44.2 | 10.8 | 24.3 |
| Florida A&MDec 18, 2025 · road | L 65–72 | 335 | 99.7 | 110.5 | 65.2 | 50.0 | 18.4 | 22.6 |
| Texas A&MDec 15, 2025 · road | L 75–112 | 31 | 98.0 | 146.4 | 76.5 | 52.6 | 24.8 | 26.5 |
| Trinity Co JaxDec 12, 2025 · home | W 122–49 | Unrated | 167.5 | 67.3 | 72.9 | 73.9 | 12.4 | 64.3 |
| FIUDec 6, 2025 · road | L 65–88 | 229 | 93.6 | 126.7 | 69.5 | 43.8 | 27.4 | 43.2 |
| Florida A&MDec 3, 2025 · home | W 85–82 | 335 | 115.0 | 110.9 | 65.7 | 51.4 | 12.2 | 32.6 |
| PacificNov 25, 2025 · neutral | L 53–68 | 207 | 87.3 | 112.0 | 60.7 | 39.2 | 13.2 | 16.7 |
| BethuneNov 24, 2025 · neutral | W 69–64 | 301 | 106.7 | 99.0 | 64.6 | 51.9 | 13.9 | 30.3 |
| George MasonNov 19, 2025 · road | L 57–79 | 90 | 87.2 | 120.8 | 65.4 | 42.3 | 29.1 | 38.7 |
| VMINov 15, 2025 · road | W 69–67 | 363 | 103.8 | 100.8 | 66.5 | 58.2 | 28.6 | 38.7 |
| High PointNov 12, 2025 · road | L 64–85 | 80 | 92.9 | 123.3 | 68.9 | 44.2 | 20.3 | 31.7 |
| Trinity (FL)Nov 7, 2025 · home | W 132–45 | Unrated | 154.7 | 52.7 | 85.3 | 66.5 | 11.7 | 60.5 |
| MiamiNov 4, 2025 · road | L 69–86 | 57 | 93.7 | 116.8 | 73.6 | 53.4 | 19.0 | 15.6 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden WoodG | 32 | 27.0 | 11.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 58.4 | 21.3% | 32 | 1.4832 games | 15132 games |
| Jaylen JonesG | 31 | 26.9 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 51.7 | 22.4% | 31 | 1.2531 games | 8431 games |
| Evan SterckG | 32 | 24.7 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 50.3 | 16.9% | 32 | 2.0432 games | 9832 games |
| Chris Lockett Jr.G | 32 | 24.5 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 50.7 | 21.3% | 32 | 2.0832 games | 10832 games |
| Jason Thirdkill Jr.F | 32 | 22.6 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 61.0 | 17.1% | 32 | 0.6832 games | 5632 games |
| Donovan RiversF | 32 | 20.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 58.0 | 23.8% | 32 | 0.3932 games | 232 games |
| Chris AriasG | 30 | 17.9 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 55.5 | 20.9% | 30 | 1.0030 games | 11930 games |
| Charles CaporasoC | 26 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 61.4 | 18.0% | 26 | 0.8026 games | 126 games |
| Allen UdemaduF | 24 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 63.7 | 17.9% | 24 | 0.2024 games | 024 games |
| Jaylen JordonF | 22 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 62.7 | 16.3% | 22 | 0.3222 games | 022 games |
| Enrico BorioF | 21 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 47.6 | 15.5% | 21 | 0.7921 games | 4721 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Jacksonville?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
17Source-listed players
17Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 4,026 | 4,026 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 6 | 2,146 | 2,146 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 1 | 278 | 278 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,450 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
17 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wood →G | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 27.0 | 11.8 | 58.4% |
| Jaylen Jones →G | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 26.9 | 9.7 | 51.7% |
| Evan Sterck →G | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 24.7 | 6.4 | 50.3% |
| Chris Lockett Jr. →G | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 24.5 | 9.3 | 50.7% |
| Jason Thirdkill Jr. →F | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 22.6 | 8.0 | 61.0% |
| Donovan Rivers →F | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 20.0 | 8.6 | 58.0% |
| Chris Arias →G | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 17.9 | 7.3 | 55.5% |
| Charles Caporaso →C | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 10.7 | 4.1 | 61.4% |
| Allen Udemadu →F | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 11.4 | 3.6 | 63.7% |
| Enrico Borio →F | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 12.1 | 3.0 | 47.6% |
| Jaylen Jordon →F | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 11.5 | 3.5 | 62.7% |
| Michael Harper Jr. →G | Same programJacksonville Dolphins | 6.9 | 2.7 | 39.6% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Jacksonville vs Florida
58.7Jacksonville
87.9Florida
Florida win estimate96.6%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin29.2
Projected total146.6
80% home-margin range13.3 to 45.1
Estimated possessions68.6
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 1.3 pts
Florida attack 54.9% · Jacksonville defense 52.4%Jacksonville attack 49.2% · Florida defense 45.6%
Ball securityHome 2.4 pts
Florida attack 16.0% · Jacksonville defense 16.6%Jacksonville attack 18.4% · Florida defense 16.7%
Second chancesHome 2.9 pts
Florida attack 38.1% · Jacksonville defense 29.6%Jacksonville attack 31.3% · Florida defense 25.7%
Free-throw pressureAway 1.5 pts
Florida attack 38.0% · Jacksonville defense 39.5%Jacksonville attack 32.7% · Florida defense 32.6%
Stephen C. O'Connell Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Jacksonville vs Georgia
63.4Jacksonville
83.7Georgia
Georgia win estimate91.6%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin20.3
Projected total147.1
80% home-margin range4.4 to 36.3
Estimated possessions68.5
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 0.4 pts
Georgia attack 53.4% · Jacksonville defense 52.4%Jacksonville attack 49.2% · Georgia defense 48.7%
Ball securityHome 0.5 pts
Georgia attack 16.5% · Jacksonville defense 16.6%Jacksonville attack 18.4% · Georgia defense 18.0%
Second chancesHome 2.9 pts
Georgia attack 33.3% · Jacksonville defense 29.6%Jacksonville attack 31.3% · Georgia defense 30.5%
Free-throw pressureAway 4.2 pts
Georgia attack 37.9% · Jacksonville defense 39.5%Jacksonville attack 32.7% · Georgia defense 30.0%
Stegeman Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Jacksonville vs Florida St
65.2Jacksonville
81.0Florida St
Florida St win estimate86.9%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin15.8
Projected total146.1
80% home-margin range-0.2 to 31.7
Estimated possessions68.8
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.1 pts
Florida St attack 52.4% · Jacksonville defense 52.4%Jacksonville attack 49.2% · Florida St defense 50.4%
Ball securityAway 0.3 pts
Florida St attack 16.2% · Jacksonville defense 16.6%Jacksonville attack 18.4% · Florida St defense 19.1%
Second chancesHome 0.1 pts
Florida St attack 30.0% · Jacksonville defense 29.6%Jacksonville attack 31.3% · Florida St defense 30.9%
Free-throw pressureHome 0.6 pts
Florida St attack 37.2% · Jacksonville defense 39.5%Jacksonville attack 32.7% · Florida St defense 35.6%
Tucker Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →