A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
42.5% · rank 19 of 366 · 32 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Bakersfield
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.311
-11.6 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
8–242025–26 recorded finals
101.4Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
112.9Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.6Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Bakersfield.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
8–2432 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 73.0Mean opponent adj. net -1.9 · 30 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
46.2%32 games · higher is betterRank 355 / 366 · 3th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
53.3%32 games · lower is betterRank 302 / 366 · 18th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
18.6%32 games · lower is betterRank 309 / 366 · 16th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
18.3%32 games · higher is betterRank 92 / 366 · 75th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
30.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 198 / 366 · 46th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
35.0%32 games · lower is betterRank 349 / 366 · 5th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
42.5%32 games · higher is betterRank 19 / 366 · 95th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
42.6%32 games · lower is betterRank 342 / 366 · 7th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 100.2 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 112.6 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 47.3% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 53.2% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 29.0% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 35.6% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 28.8% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 38.4% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 73.5% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 71.9% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 44.7% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 53.4% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,355 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnovers forced
18.3% · rank 92 of 366 · 32 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
A closer look
Opponent offensive rebound rate
35.0% · rank 349 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
A closer look
Effective FG%
46.2% · rank 355 of 366 · 32 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 7 times in the selected window; Bakersfield won 4. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 8, 2026 · road vs Cal Poly · L 76–108 · offense 92.2 / defense 131.0
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal PolyMar 8, 2026 · road | L 76–108 | 246 | 92.2 | 131.0 | 82.5 | 47.0 | 21.8 | 30.2 |
| CSU NorthridgeMar 6, 2026 · home | L 84–86 | 171 | 105.7 | 108.2 | 79.5 | 50.7 | 12.6 | 23.8 |
| Long Beach StMar 1, 2026 · home | L 87–88 | 265 | 117.3 | 118.6 | 74.2 | 55.9 | 12.1 | 21.2 |
| UC San DiegoFeb 27, 2026 · road | L 72–84 | 97 | 100.8 | 117.6 | 71.4 | 48.0 | 18.2 | 13.3 |
| FullertonFeb 22, 2026 · home | L 80–88 | 255 | 108.9 | 119.8 | 73.4 | 47.7 | 13.6 | 27.5 |
| UC RiversideFeb 20, 2026 · road | L 65–93 | 241 | 84.3 | 120.6 | 77.1 | 33.9 | 16.9 | 22.7 |
| Hawai'iFeb 13, 2026 · home | L 74–89 | 136 | 102.3 | 123.0 | 72.4 | 48.4 | 15.2 | 25.7 |
| FullertonFeb 8, 2026 · road | L 66–82 | 255 | 89.0 | 110.6 | 74.2 | 43.4 | 21.6 | 32.6 |
| UC IrvineFeb 6, 2026 · road | L 62–78 | 95 | 84.7 | 106.6 | 73.2 | 37.9 | 26.0 | 36.6 |
| UC DavisJan 31, 2026 · home | L 72–80 | 193 | 103.4 | 114.9 | 69.6 | 53.7 | 21.5 | 27.6 |
| Cal PolyJan 30, 2026 · home | L 79–104 | 246 | 101.8 | 134.1 | 77.6 | 54.5 | 21.9 | 36.8 |
| Hawai'iJan 23, 2026 · road | L 71–98 | 136 | 91.8 | 126.7 | 77.3 | 37.7 | 9.1 | 12.2 |
| UC San DiegoJan 17, 2026 · home | L 62–83 | 97 | 87.1 | 116.6 | 71.2 | 38.4 | 21.1 | 31.0 |
| Santa BarbaraJan 16, 2026 · home | L 69–75 | 143 | 111.5 | 121.2 | 61.9 | 49.1 | 12.9 | 33.3 |
| Long Beach StJan 11, 2026 · road | L 75–81 | 265 | 99.2 | 107.1 | 75.6 | 48.3 | 18.5 | 22.2 |
| UC RiversideJan 9, 2026 · home | W 67–66 | 241 | 95.6 | 94.2 | 70.1 | 41.9 | 21.4 | 41.5 |
| UC DavisJan 3, 2026 · road | W 81–79 | 193 | 112.9 | 110.1 | 71.7 | 47.6 | 13.9 | 33.3 |
| UC IrvineJan 1, 2026 · home | L 77–81 | 95 | 110.5 | 116.2 | 69.7 | 43.8 | 12.9 | 46.5 |
| IdahoDec 23, 2025 · home | W 64–63 | 214 | 97.8 | 96.2 | 65.5 | 54.5 | 19.9 | 22.6 |
| NobelDec 19, 2025 · home | W 97–66 | Unrated | 132.5 | 90.1 | 73.2 | 66.3 | 16.4 | 30.4 |
| PepperdineDec 14, 2025 · home | L 62–70 | 261 | 91.9 | 103.8 | 67.5 | 33.3 | 22.2 | 40.0 |
| N Dakota StDec 12, 2025 · home | L 69–80 | 128 | 94.2 | 109.2 | 73.3 | 40.6 | 21.8 | 35.7 |
| Santa BarbaraDec 7, 2025 · road | L 84–109 | 143 | 115.3 | 149.6 | 72.9 | 60.4 | 16.5 | 16.7 |
| CSU NorthridgeDec 5, 2025 · road | L 66–87 | 171 | 89.0 | 117.3 | 74.1 | 39.2 | 24.3 | 37.5 |
| Fresno StNov 30, 2025 · neutral | W 76–71 | 188 | 106.7 | 99.7 | 71.2 | 46.5 | 14.0 | 22.6 |
| Florida StNov 26, 2025 · road | L 59–89 | 81 | 72.8 | 109.8 | 81.1 | 39.8 | 34.5 | 36.1 |
| Miss Valley StNov 22, 2025 · home | W 86–70 | 365 | 114.9 | 93.5 | 74.9 | 47.5 | 13.4 | 38.1 |
| Portland StNov 18, 2025 · road | L 80–93 | 170 | 108.0 | 125.6 | 74.1 | 51.8 | 23.0 | 30.3 |
| Ole MissNov 15, 2025 · road | L 60–82 | 54 | 96.2 | 131.5 | 62.4 | 44.9 | 20.8 | 32.4 |
| W IllinoisNov 12, 2025 · home | W 74–58 | 362 | 110.4 | 86.5 | 67.0 | 49.2 | 19.4 | 40.0 |
| WhittierNov 6, 2025 · home | W 83–61 | Unrated | 101.0 | 74.2 | 82.2 | 44.8 | 13.4 | 37.5 |
| CaliforniaNov 4, 2025 · road | L 60–87 | 104 | 82.1 | 119.1 | 73.1 | 38.7 | 23.3 | 30.6 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dailin SmithG | 30 | 29.3 | 16.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 51.4 | 28.4% | 30 | 0.5730 games | 16130 games |
| AJ GeorgeG | 30 | 28.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 44.0 | 18.8% | 30 | 0.8830 games | 4830 games |
| Ronald JessamyF | 31 | 26.0 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 56.3 | 26.8% | 31 | 0.4331 games | 1531 games |
| Tom MarkF | 27 | 25.0 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 54.4 | 13.4% | 27 | 1.0827 games | 5527 games |
| Kadar WallerG | 32 | 20.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 45.3 | 11.3% | 32 | 2.1732 games | 2732 games |
| CJ HardyG | 22 | 28.1 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 57.1 | 22.2% | 22 | 1.2322 games | 6722 games |
| Mike PriceG | 31 | 18.2 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 45.7 | 21.5% | 31 | 0.6731 games | 9631 games |
| Pierre Geneste Jr.C | 26 | 18.9 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 56.4 | 8.8% | 26 | 0.3626 games | 026 games |
| Jaden AlexanderG | 20 | 19.6 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 55.6 | 23.6% | 20 | 0.3720 games | 3420 games |
| Bentley WallerG | 22 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 53.3 | 19.7% | 22 | 0.6422 games | 1922 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Bakersfield?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →