A relative strength
Turnover rate
14.5% · rank 45 of 366 · 37 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
GA Southern
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.244
-5.6 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
21–162025–26 recorded finals
106.3Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
112.0Adjusted defense · lower is better
70.3Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on GA Southern.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
21–1637 recorded games · 37 paired efficiency samples · pace 71.3Mean opponent adj. net -3.9 · 35 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.0%37 games · higher is betterRank 175 / 366 · 52th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
52.0%37 games · lower is betterRank 246 / 366 · 33th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
14.5%37 games · lower is betterRank 45 / 366 · 88th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
18.9%37 games · higher is betterRank 73 / 366 · 80th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
28.9%37 games · higher is betterRank 262 / 366 · 28th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
34.5%37 games · lower is betterRank 341 / 366 · 7th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
39.0%37 games · higher is betterRank 73 / 366 · 80th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
40.3%37 games · lower is betterRank 316 / 366 · 14th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 112.3 | 37 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 110.6 | 37 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 53.4% | 37 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 52.4% | 37 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 33.7% | 37 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.3% | 37 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 48.8% | 37 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 39.7% | 37 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 74.5% | 37 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 73.9% | 37 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 42.0% | 37 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 47.1% | 37 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,685 source possession rows across 37 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnovers forced
18.9% · rank 73 of 366 · 37 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
40.3% · rank 316 of 366 · 37 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Opponent offensive rebound rate
34.5% · rank 341 of 366 · 37 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 15 times in the selected window; GA Southern won 10. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 9, 2026 · neutral vs Troy · L 61–77 · offense 96.7 / defense 122.0
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 37 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TroyMar 9, 2026 · neutral | L 61–77 | 123 | 96.7 | 122.0 | 63.1 | 47.9 | 19.0 | 17.2 |
| MarshallMar 9, 2026 · neutral | W 82–78 | 172 | 113.3 | 107.7 | 72.4 | 45.4 | 16.6 | 42.9 |
| CoastalMar 8, 2026 · neutral | W 96–72 | 286 | 140.9 | 105.7 | 68.1 | 63.1 | 7.3 | 36.4 |
| South AlabamaMar 7, 2026 · neutral | W 94–85 | 165 | 139.9 | 126.5 | 67.2 | 77.9 | 19.3 | 23.1 |
| Arkansas StMar 6, 2026 · neutral | W 80–77 | 126 | 116.4 | 112.0 | 68.7 | 58.5 | 14.5 | 20.0 |
| Old DominionMar 5, 2026 · neutral | W 88–84 | 254 | 127.4 | 121.6 | 69.1 | 61.5 | 15.9 | 32.1 |
| MarshallFeb 28, 2026 · road | W 99–82 | 172 | 138.1 | 114.4 | 71.7 | 63.7 | 11.2 | 32.3 |
| James MadisonFeb 26, 2026 · road | L 66–82 | 155 | 93.7 | 116.4 | 70.4 | 43.4 | 12.8 | 22.5 |
| App StateFeb 21, 2026 · road | L 74–89 | 151 | 104.1 | 125.2 | 71.1 | 50.0 | 16.9 | 24.3 |
| Georgia StFeb 20, 2026 · road | L 64–66 | 293 | 93.3 | 96.2 | 68.6 | 41.5 | 8.7 | 23.8 |
| MarshallFeb 15, 2026 · home | W 101–87 | 172 | 130.3 | 112.2 | 77.5 | 64.7 | 16.8 | 31.3 |
| App StateFeb 12, 2026 · home | L 65–81 | 151 | 98.1 | 122.2 | 66.3 | 46.8 | 18.1 | 31.7 |
| Texas StFeb 5, 2026 · home | L 71–77 | 228 | 102.2 | 110.9 | 69.5 | 51.9 | 14.4 | 15.6 |
| LouisianaJan 31, 2026 · road | L 60–69 | 297 | 97.0 | 111.5 | 61.9 | 45.2 | 22.6 | 30.3 |
| UL MonroeJan 30, 2026 · neutral | W 79–76 | 358 | 106.8 | 102.7 | 74.0 | 49.1 | 18.9 | 26.5 |
| TroyJan 24, 2026 · home | L 78–83 | 123 | 122.4 | 130.2 | 63.7 | 58.0 | 12.6 | 29.0 |
| Arkansas StJan 23, 2026 · home | L 68–85 | 126 | 91.1 | 113.9 | 74.6 | 38.6 | 16.1 | 33.3 |
| CoastalJan 17, 2026 · home | L 75–79 | 286 | 101.1 | 106.5 | 65.9 | 42.1 | 6.7 | 30.0 |
| Old DominionJan 16, 2026 · home | W 87–84 | 254 | 122.2 | 118.0 | 71.2 | 58.6 | 15.4 | 32.4 |
| South AlabamaJan 10, 2026 · road | L 71–87 | 165 | 97.7 | 119.7 | 72.7 | 43.8 | 13.8 | 23.9 |
| Old DominionJan 3, 2026 · road | W 93–86 | 254 | 115.4 | 106.7 | 80.6 | 52.3 | 13.7 | 31.6 |
| CoastalJan 1, 2026 · road | W 82–81 | 286 | 107.2 | 105.9 | 68.0 | 45.3 | 13.1 | 28.6 |
| James MadisonDec 20, 2025 · home | W 96–92 | 155 | 121.8 | 116.8 | 70.0 | 48.5 | 7.6 | 27.3 |
| Georgia StDec 19, 2025 · home | W 90–67 | 293 | 134.1 | 99.8 | 67.1 | 46.8 | 10.4 | 44.2 |
| West GeorgiaDec 14, 2025 · road | W 91–85 | 325 | 125.2 | 116.9 | 72.7 | 56.2 | 13.8 | 35.1 |
| Coastal GADec 12, 2025 · home | W 100–58 | Unrated | 139.8 | 81.1 | 71.5 | 62.3 | 9.8 | 36.1 |
| Gardner-WebbDec 6, 2025 · road | W 88–84 | 349 | 117.6 | 112.3 | 74.8 | 56.6 | 10.7 | 22.9 |
| Louisiana TechDec 4, 2025 · home | W 77–69 | 156 | 115.2 | 103.3 | 66.8 | 56.3 | 16.5 | 26.7 |
| Hou ChristianNov 29, 2025 · home | W 80–62 | 324 | 119.7 | 92.8 | 66.8 | 56.5 | 12.0 | 32.4 |
| UTSANov 26, 2025 · neutral | L 64–77 | 312 | 87.3 | 105.0 | 73.3 | 37.5 | 16.4 | 27.3 |
| Youngstown StNov 24, 2025 · neutral | L 61–67 | 176 | 89.9 | 98.8 | 67.8 | 42.1 | 19.2 | 24.3 |
| Florida StNov 21, 2025 · road | L 72–98 | 81 | 86.7 | 117.9 | 83.1 | 40.5 | 20.5 | 20.9 |
| Georgia TechNov 19, 2025 · road | L 66–68 | 137 | 87.8 | 90.4 | 75.2 | 43.3 | 18.6 | 32.6 |
| Johnson C SmthNov 14, 2025 · home | W 98–79 | Unrated | 121.2 | 97.7 | 80.9 | 59.6 | 13.6 | 25.0 |
| FGCUNov 12, 2025 · road | W 95–94 | 219 | 130.3 | 129.0 | 72.9 | 71.6 | 15.1 | 20.7 |
| UNC AshevilleNov 8, 2025 · home | W 93–90 | 206 | 115.6 | 111.9 | 80.5 | 50.0 | 11.2 | 28.6 |
| East CarolinaNov 5, 2025 · road | L 89–92 | 222 | 110.7 | 114.5 | 80.4 | 53.8 | 17.4 | 35.0 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spudd WebbG | 37 | 32.4 | 15.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 62.6 | 21.4% | 37 | 1.5237 games | 13537 games |
| Alden ApplewhiteF | 36 | 31.3 | 14.1 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 62.4 | 19.6% | 36 | 1.0236 games | 14736 games |
| Tyren MooreG | 37 | 29.4 | 16.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 59.1 | 25.7% | 37 | 1.4837 games | 31037 games |
| Nakavieon WhiteF | 37 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 49.5 | 27.9% | 37 | 1.3837 games | 11737 games |
| Khayri DunnG | 36 | 17.5 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 53.2 | 23.4% | 36 | 0.6236 games | 14036 games |
| Shainen CarterF | 34 | 17.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 57.5 | 12.1% | 34 | 0.2034 games | 634 games |
| Andres BurneyF | 35 | 15.7 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 65.0 | 13.4% | 35 | 0.4535 games | 035 games |
| Jefferson KoulibalyG | 25 | 21.1 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 41.9 | 13.4% | 25 | 1.1325 games | 5425 games |
| Dwayne Williams JrG | 34 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 48.5 | 18.3% | 34 | 1.2034 games | 9634 games |
| Tsvet SotirovF | 35 | 11.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 44.3 | 14.4% | 35 | 1.3035 games | 7935 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around GA Southern?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
17Source-listed players
13Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 4,066 | 4,066 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 7 | 3,409 | 3,409 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (7,475 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
17 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spudd Webb →G | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 32.4 | 15.5 | 62.6% |
| Alden Applewhite →F | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 31.3 | 14.1 | 62.4% |
| Tyren Moore →G | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 29.4 | 16.1 | 59.1% |
| Nakavieon White →F | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 20.1 | 9.7 | 49.5% |
| Khayri Dunn →G | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 17.5 | 7.4 | 53.2% |
| Shainen Carter →F | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 17.5 | 4.0 | 57.5% |
| Andres Burney →F | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 15.7 | 4.7 | 65.0% |
| Jefferson Koulibaly →G | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 21.1 | 4.4 | 41.9% |
| Dwayne Williams Jr →G | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 13.0 | 4.5 | 48.5% |
| Tsvet Sotirov →F | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 11.3 | 2.7 | 44.3% |
| Jayden Williams →G | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 9.0 | 1.2 | 31.7% |
| Sean Van Dorn Jr →G | Same programGeorgia Southern Eagles | 5.0 | 3.0 | 54.0% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Ball State vs GA Southern
71.0Ball State
76.0GA Southern
GA Southern win estimate67.0%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin5.0
Projected total146.9
80% home-margin range-10.9 to 20.9
Estimated possessions68.3
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 2.5 pts
GA Southern attack 51.1% · Ball State defense 52.1%Ball State attack 49.0% · GA Southern defense 52.5%
Ball securityAway 1.9 pts
GA Southern attack 17.2% · Ball State defense 16.8%Ball State attack 16.8% · GA Southern defense 18.3%
Second chancesHome 4.6 pts
GA Southern attack 29.2% · Ball State defense 30.3%Ball State attack 27.0% · GA Southern defense 32.7%
Free-throw pressureHome 5.4 pts
GA Southern attack 33.5% · Ball State defense 32.2%Ball State attack 37.5% · GA Southern defense 41.6%
Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Coastal vs GA Southern
71.8Coastal
77.3GA Southern
GA Southern win estimate68.3%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin5.5
Projected total149.1
80% home-margin range-10.4 to 21.4
Estimated possessions69.5
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 5.1 pts
GA Southern attack 51.1% · Coastal defense 49.6%Coastal attack 49.0% · GA Southern defense 52.5%
Ball securityAway 5.5 pts
GA Southern attack 17.2% · Coastal defense 12.9%Coastal attack 17.1% · GA Southern defense 18.3%
Second chancesHome 5.8 pts
GA Southern attack 29.2% · Coastal defense 28.3%Coastal attack 27.8% · GA Southern defense 32.7%
Free-throw pressureHome 8.6 pts
GA Southern attack 33.5% · Coastal defense 34.0%Coastal attack 32.5% · GA Southern defense 41.6%
Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
GA Southern vs Arkansas St
75.1GA Southern
85.3Arkansas St
Arkansas St win estimate78.1%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin10.2
Projected total160.4
80% home-margin range-5.8 to 26.1
Estimated possessions72.8
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 2.6 pts
Arkansas St attack 50.8% · GA Southern defense 52.5%GA Southern attack 51.1% · Arkansas St defense 50.2%
Ball securityHome 2.6 pts
Arkansas St attack 17.2% · GA Southern defense 18.3%GA Southern attack 17.2% · Arkansas St defense 15.7%
Second chancesHome 0.2 pts
Arkansas St attack 34.0% · GA Southern defense 32.7%GA Southern attack 29.2% · Arkansas St defense 28.1%
Free-throw pressureAway 2.5 pts
Arkansas St attack 35.8% · GA Southern defense 41.6%GA Southern attack 33.5% · Arkansas St defense 36.8%
First National Bank Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →