A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
26.6% · rank 39 of 366 · 34 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
UC San Diego
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.97
+7.3 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
23–112025–26 recorded finals
109.2Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
101.9Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.5Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on UC San Diego.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
23–1134 recorded games · 34 paired efficiency samples · pace 69.8Mean opponent adj. net -2.1 · 32 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.8%34 games · higher is betterRank 129 / 366 · 65th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
48.7%34 games · lower is betterRank 64 / 366 · 83th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.4%34 games · lower is betterRank 168 / 366 · 54th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
17.1%34 games · higher is betterRank 156 / 366 · 58th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
27.3%34 games · higher is betterRank 299 / 366 · 18th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
26.6%34 games · lower is betterRank 39 / 366 · 90th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
32.3%34 games · higher is betterRank 249 / 366 · 32th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
28.6%34 games · lower is betterRank 49 / 366 · 87th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 108.4 | 34 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 100.7 | 34 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 55.2% | 34 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 49.2% | 34 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 33.1% | 34 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 32.0% | 34 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 42.7% | 34 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 43.6% | 34 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 69.5% | 34 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 71.9% | 34 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 55.7% | 34 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 56.2% | 34 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,399 source possession rows across 34 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
28.6% · rank 49 of 366 · 34 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
32.3% · rank 249 of 366 · 34 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
27.3% · rank 299 of 366 · 34 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 12 times in the selected window; UC San Diego won 6. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 13, 2026 · neutral vs CSU Northridge · L 70–80 · offense 96.4 / defense 110.2
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 34 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU NorthridgeMar 13, 2026 · neutral | L 70–80 | 171 | 96.4 | 110.2 | 72.6 | 45.1 | 20.7 | 25.6 |
| Cal PolyMar 12, 2026 · neutral | W 72–69 | 246 | 98.3 | 94.2 | 73.2 | 50.0 | 17.8 | 20.0 |
| Santa BarbaraMar 8, 2026 · road | W 64–63 | 143 | 102.5 | 100.9 | 62.4 | 48.1 | 11.2 | 20.6 |
| FullertonMar 6, 2026 · road | L 71–75 | 255 | 101.6 | 107.4 | 69.9 | 56.7 | 21.5 | 20.0 |
| Cal PolyMar 1, 2026 · home | W 80–64 | 246 | 114.0 | 91.2 | 70.2 | 52.2 | 8.5 | 24.4 |
| BakersfieldFeb 27, 2026 · home | W 84–72 | 311 | 117.6 | 100.8 | 71.4 | 57.7 | 16.8 | 33.3 |
| UC IrvineFeb 22, 2026 · road | W 71–69 | 95 | 112.2 | 109.0 | 63.3 | 52.5 | 14.2 | 33.3 |
| UC RiversideFeb 15, 2026 · home | W 72–66 | 241 | 101.3 | 92.9 | 71.1 | 46.7 | 14.1 | 23.1 |
| UC DavisFeb 13, 2026 · home | W 68–51 | 193 | 96.7 | 72.5 | 70.3 | 61.0 | 29.9 | 16.7 |
| Hawai'iFeb 8, 2026 · road | L 67–72 | 136 | 90.3 | 97.0 | 74.2 | 48.3 | 14.8 | 7.9 |
| Long Beach StFeb 6, 2026 · home | W 77–74 | 265 | 103.2 | 99.1 | 74.6 | 50.9 | 24.1 | 32.4 |
| CSU NorthridgeFeb 1, 2026 · road | L 64–81 | 171 | 85.1 | 107.7 | 75.2 | 40.0 | 14.6 | 29.2 |
| Santa BarbaraJan 30, 2026 · home | L 48–62 | 143 | 73.2 | 94.5 | 65.6 | 41.0 | 29.0 | 25.7 |
| UC IrvineJan 25, 2026 · home | L 59–61 | 95 | 84.0 | 86.9 | 70.2 | 40.8 | 12.8 | 18.2 |
| UC DavisJan 23, 2026 · road | W 80–74 | 193 | 107.5 | 99.5 | 74.4 | 55.5 | 21.5 | 34.4 |
| BakersfieldJan 17, 2026 · road | W 83–62 | 311 | 116.6 | 87.1 | 71.2 | 54.8 | 11.2 | 23.1 |
| CSU NorthridgeJan 16, 2026 · home | L 79–84 | 171 | 109.1 | 116.0 | 72.4 | 48.5 | 8.3 | 21.4 |
| UC RiversideJan 11, 2026 · road | W 69–66 | 241 | 106.7 | 102.0 | 64.7 | 54.2 | 18.6 | 31.0 |
| FullertonJan 9, 2026 · home | L 71–88 | 255 | 102.2 | 126.7 | 69.5 | 48.2 | 24.5 | 35.3 |
| Hawai'iJan 4, 2026 · home | W 83–73 | 136 | 122.8 | 108.0 | 67.6 | 54.7 | 11.8 | 31.3 |
| Cal PolyJan 2, 2026 · road | L 65–67 | 246 | 97.9 | 100.9 | 66.4 | 41.5 | 16.6 | 34.9 |
| StantonDec 29, 2025 · home | W 85–62 | Unrated | 125.8 | 91.8 | 67.6 | 53.9 | 13.3 | 40.9 |
| San DiegoDec 20, 2025 · home | L 80–82 | 263 | 118.7 | 121.6 | 67.4 | 57.6 | 13.4 | 27.6 |
| LMUDec 17, 2025 · road | W 67–57 | 160 | 94.5 | 80.4 | 70.9 | 49.2 | 22.6 | 37.1 |
| TulaneDec 14, 2025 · neutral | W 93–67 | 168 | 119.2 | 85.9 | 78.0 | 54.7 | 15.4 | 39.5 |
| Long Beach StDec 7, 2025 · road | W 80–74 | 265 | 118.0 | 109.1 | 67.8 | 61.0 | 16.2 | 17.9 |
| NevadaDec 3, 2025 · road | L 70–76 | 59 | 108.8 | 118.1 | 64.3 | 44.9 | 6.2 | 30.2 |
| TowsonNov 26, 2025 · neutral | W 87–73 | 150 | 135.7 | 113.9 | 64.1 | 75.5 | 10.9 | 20.0 |
| BradleyNov 25, 2025 · neutral | W 87–77 | 98 | 124.4 | 110.1 | 69.9 | 57.1 | 12.9 | 27.3 |
| TempleNov 24, 2025 · neutral | W 91–76 | 142 | 133.0 | 111.1 | 68.4 | 73.2 | 7.3 | 7.4 |
| IdahoNov 15, 2025 · home | W 75–67 | 214 | 107.3 | 95.9 | 69.9 | 53.0 | 15.7 | 12.9 |
| Fresno StNov 13, 2025 · road | W 78–73 | 188 | 109.7 | 102.7 | 71.1 | 60.0 | 25.3 | 34.3 |
| Hou ChristianNov 9, 2025 · home | W 78–60 | 324 | 112.4 | 86.4 | 69.4 | 58.6 | 17.3 | 26.7 |
| La VerneNov 4, 2025 · home | W 105–73 | Unrated | 139.7 | 97.1 | 75.2 | 59.4 | 16.0 | 48.6 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom BeattieG | 34 | 31.2 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 54.4 | 18.0% | 34 | 2.3234 games | 13434 games |
| Leo BeathF | 34 | 30.1 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 53.3 | 21.6% | 34 | 1.1034 games | 14934 games |
| Alex ChaikinG | 34 | 25.0 | 9.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 57.6 | 19.4% | 34 | 0.9834 games | 19434 games |
| Bol DengditF | 34 | 23.4 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 55.1 | 24.9% | 34 | 0.9434 games | 8534 games |
| Hudson MayesG | 33 | 23.9 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 61.8 | 21.5% | 33 | 1.3933 games | 3133 games |
| Aidan BurkeG | 34 | 21.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 56.7 | 14.4% | 34 | 2.1334 games | 11634 games |
| Emanuel Prospere IIG | 28 | 22.1 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 53.4 | 21.7% | 28 | 1.5328 games | 3428 games |
| Jaden VanceF | 24 | 13.5 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 55.1 | 20.8% | 24 | 0.5824 games | 3624 games |
| Trap JohnsonG | 24 | 9.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 51.2 | 15.3% | 24 | 0.6724 games | 3624 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around UC San Diego?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
16Source-listed players
14Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 11 | 4,330 | 4,330 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 4 | 2,291 | 2,291 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 1 | 179 | 179 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,800 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
16 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Beattie →G | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 31.2 | 10.6 | 54.4% |
| Leo Beath →F | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 30.1 | 12.2 | 53.3% |
| Alex Chaikin →G | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 25.0 | 9.7 | 57.6% |
| Bol Dengdit →F | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 23.4 | 10.7 | 55.1% |
| Hudson Mayes →G | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 23.9 | 11.1 | 61.8% |
| Aidan Burke →G | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 21.7 | 6.2 | 56.7% |
| Emanuel Prospere II →G | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 22.1 | 8.0 | 53.4% |
| Jaden Vance →F | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 13.5 | 5.0 | 55.1% |
| Trap Johnson →G | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 9.2 | 2.6 | 51.2% |
| Dimitrije Vukicevic →C | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 7.2 | 2.6 | 58.6% |
| Cade Pendleton →F | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 7.7 | 2.1 | 42.2% |
| Ryder Elisaldez →G | Same programUC San Diego Tritons | 4.3 | 0.9 | 76.3% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
UC San Diego vs San José St
73.5UC San Diego
69.0San José St
San José St win estimate41.8%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-4.5
Projected total142.5
80% home-margin range-20.4 to 11.4
Estimated possessions65.5
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.6 pts
San José St attack 50.9% · UC San Diego defense 49.8%UC San Diego attack 52.8% · San José St defense 53.3%
Ball securityHome 0.7 pts
San José St attack 16.1% · UC San Diego defense 17.8%UC San Diego attack 15.6% · San José St defense 16.6%
Second chancesHome 7.4 pts
San José St attack 29.5% · UC San Diego defense 27.8%UC San Diego attack 26.6% · San José St defense 32.3%
Free-throw pressureHome 1.8 pts
San José St attack 31.4% · UC San Diego defense 29.8%UC San Diego attack 31.7% · San José St defense 31.9%
Provident Credit Union Event Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →