A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
41.6% · rank 35 of 366 · 33 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Green Bay
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.284
-8.6 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
18–152025–26 recorded finals
105.6Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
114.2Adjusted defense · lower is better
65.9Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Green Bay.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
18–1533 recorded games · 33 paired efficiency samples · pace 65.2Mean opponent adj. net -1.9 · 31 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
55.3%33 games · higher is betterRank 38 / 366 · 90th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
52.9%33 games · lower is betterRank 285 / 366 · 22th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
15.9%33 games · lower is betterRank 136 / 366 · 63th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
13.7%33 games · higher is betterRank 348 / 366 · 5th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
25.7%33 games · higher is betterRank 337 / 366 · 8th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
28.7%33 games · lower is betterRank 115 / 366 · 69th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
41.6%33 games · higher is betterRank 35 / 366 · 91th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
36.6%33 games · lower is betterRank 244 / 366 · 33th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 114.0 | 33 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 114.0 | 33 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 55.9% | 33 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.9% | 33 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 36.2% | 33 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 36.1% | 33 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 37.1% | 33 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 43.6% | 33 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 76.6% | 33 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 74.3% | 33 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 54.6% | 33 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 58.1% | 33 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,184 source possession rows across 33 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Effective FG%
55.3% · rank 38 of 366 · 33 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
25.7% · rank 337 of 366 · 33 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Turnovers forced
13.7% · rank 348 of 366 · 33 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 11 times in the selected window; Green Bay won 8. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 8, 2026 · neutral vs N Kentucky · L 76–96 · offense 115.2 / defense 145.5
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 33 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N KentuckyMar 8, 2026 · neutral | L 76–96 | 183 | 115.2 | 145.5 | 66.0 | 54.7 | 13.6 | 18.5 |
| Purdue FWMar 4, 2026 · home | W 64–56 | 210 | 110.6 | 96.7 | 57.9 | 52.1 | 12.1 | 20.7 |
| Youngstown StFeb 28, 2026 · home | W 85–63 | 176 | 130.0 | 96.4 | 65.4 | 62.3 | 9.2 | 20.8 |
| Detroit MercyFeb 22, 2026 · road | L 70–74 | 294 | 101.4 | 107.2 | 69.0 | 51.9 | 18.8 | 16.7 |
| OaklandFeb 21, 2026 · road | W 73–68 | 167 | 115.7 | 107.8 | 63.1 | 54.5 | 12.7 | 25.8 |
| MilwaukeeFeb 15, 2026 · road | L 72–75 | 218 | 117.0 | 121.8 | 61.6 | 60.4 | 17.9 | 23.1 |
| Purdue FWFeb 13, 2026 · home | W 76–59 | 210 | 129.0 | 100.1 | 58.9 | 61.6 | 15.3 | 23.8 |
| Detroit MercyFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 76–63 | 294 | 114.3 | 94.7 | 66.5 | 45.9 | 12.0 | 37.1 |
| N KentuckyFeb 5, 2026 · road | W 87–84 | 183 | 115.3 | 111.3 | 67.1 | 57.3 | 22.5 | 39.4 |
| Wright StFeb 1, 2026 · home | L 75–83 | 154 | 118.4 | 131.1 | 63.3 | 53.0 | 15.8 | 29.6 |
| Cleveland StJan 31, 2026 · home | L 82–89 | 267 | 125.3 | 136.0 | 65.4 | 55.1 | 12.2 | 32.4 |
| Robert MorrisJan 24, 2026 · road | W 71–67 | 166 | 114.6 | 108.2 | 61.9 | 57.5 | 16.1 | 24.1 |
| Youngstown StJan 22, 2026 · road | L 81–88 | 176 | 122.3 | 132.9 | 66.2 | 60.2 | 18.1 | 28.0 |
| OaklandJan 18, 2026 · home | L 63–88 | 167 | 98.4 | 137.5 | 64.0 | 47.2 | 17.2 | 25.0 |
| Cleveland StJan 16, 2026 · road | W 88–73 | 267 | 143.7 | 119.2 | 61.2 | 73.0 | 13.1 | 25.0 |
| N KentuckyJan 11, 2026 · home | W 80–78 | 183 | 132.6 | 129.3 | 60.3 | 67.3 | 14.9 | 36.0 |
| IU IndyJan 10, 2026 · home | W 75–59 | 339 | 104.1 | 81.9 | 72.1 | 51.9 | 22.2 | 29.0 |
| MilwaukeeJan 6, 2026 · home | W 79–76 | 218 | 124.6 | 119.8 | 63.4 | 65.6 | 12.6 | 14.3 |
| Purdue FWJan 1, 2026 · road | W 72–54 | 210 | 116.4 | 87.3 | 61.8 | 55.7 | 17.8 | 30.4 |
| CampbellDec 23, 2025 · road | L 79–102 | 208 | 119.0 | 153.7 | 66.4 | 61.5 | 19.6 | 32.0 |
| Santa BarbaraDec 18, 2025 · home | W 67–64 | 143 | 118.3 | 113.0 | 56.6 | 64.0 | 12.4 | 10.7 |
| IU IndyDec 11, 2025 · road | W 85–75 | 339 | 116.4 | 102.7 | 73.0 | 56.7 | 19.2 | 25.8 |
| Wright StDec 7, 2025 · road | L 58–86 | 154 | 85.7 | 127.0 | 67.7 | 46.9 | 26.6 | 23.3 |
| Robert MorrisDec 5, 2025 · home | L 78–80 | 166 | 115.3 | 118.3 | 67.6 | 57.6 | 16.3 | 16.0 |
| HaskellNov 29, 2025 · home | W 95–55 | Unrated | 129.5 | 75.0 | 73.4 | 62.9 | 17.7 | 43.8 |
| IonaNov 24, 2025 · neutral | W 80–75 | 215 | 118.2 | 110.8 | 67.7 | 46.9 | 7.4 | 30.2 |
| UMassNov 22, 2025 · neutral | W 79–75 | 177 | 117.1 | 111.1 | 67.5 | 52.0 | 11.9 | 25.0 |
| YaleNov 21, 2025 · neutral | L 67–73 | 62 | 108.6 | 118.3 | 61.7 | 47.3 | 13.0 | 34.3 |
| MinnesotaNov 16, 2025 · road | L 65–72 | 91 | 91.0 | 100.8 | 63.5 | 46.3 | 19.6 | 18.9 |
| St Thomas (MN)Nov 14, 2025 · road | L 61–80 | 118 | 86.9 | 114.0 | 70.2 | 47.3 | 21.4 | 22.2 |
| RiponNov 10, 2025 · home | W 83–63 | Unrated | 116.6 | 88.5 | 71.2 | 57.3 | 12.6 | 24.2 |
| BuffaloNov 7, 2025 · road | L 76–83 | 277 | 118.3 | 129.2 | 64.2 | 62.8 | 17.1 | 15.4 |
| KansasNov 4, 2025 · road | L 51–94 | 17 | 79.1 | 145.8 | 64.5 | 35.7 | 12.4 | 16.7 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston RuedingerG | 33 | 35.3 | 11.6 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 59.2 | 17.6% | 33 | 3.8133 games | 16333 games |
| C.J. O'HaraG | 33 | 32.6 | 14.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 64.1 | 21.1% | 33 | 0.8033 games | 2533 games |
| Marcus HallF | 30 | 34.6 | 13.9 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 62.5 | 20.4% | 30 | 1.6230 games | 15530 games |
| Justin AllenG | 32 | 26.4 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 56.8 | 27.8% | 32 | 1.3632 games | 9132 games |
| Caden WilkinsF | 33 | 21.5 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 58.0 | 17.0% | 33 | 0.8633 games | 11933 games |
| LeBron ThomasG | 32 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 56.4 | 20.6% | 32 | 0.9132 games | 932 games |
| Ramel BetheaF | 30 | 12.7 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 74.0 | 12.9% | 30 | 0.4730 games | 130 games |
| Mac WreckeG | 23 | 11.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 58.7 | 14.6% | 23 | 0.6723 games | 2523 games |
| Maruan CicicC | 21 | 11.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 59.9 | 13.9% | 21 | 0.2321 games | 121 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Green Bay?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
16Source-listed players
15Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 4,020 | 4,020 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 5 | 2,389 | 2,389 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 1 | 241 | 241 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,650 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
16 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Ruedinger →G | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 35.3 | 11.6 | 59.2% |
| C.J. O'Hara →G | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 32.6 | 14.1 | 64.1% |
| Marcus Hall →F | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 34.6 | 13.9 | 62.5% |
| Justin Allen →G | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 26.4 | 13.6 | 56.8% |
| Caden Wilkins →F | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 21.5 | 6.9 | 58.0% |
| LeBron Thomas →G | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 12.0 | 4.0 | 56.4% |
| Ramel Bethea →F | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 12.7 | 3.6 | 74.0% |
| Mac Wrecke →G | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 11.6 | 3.3 | 58.7% |
| Maruan Cicic →C | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 11.5 | 2.8 | 59.9% |
| Vukasin Todorovic →F | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 9.8 | 2.9 | 45.6% |
| Keegan Van Kauwenberg →G | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 9.6 | 2.1 | 54.4% |
| Rob Stroud →F | Same programGreen Bay Phoenix | 5.5 | 3.4 | 50.5% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Green Bay vs Florida St
67.8Green Bay
83.5Florida St
Florida St win estimate86.7%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin15.7
Projected total151.3
80% home-margin range-0.3 to 31.6
Estimated possessions68.6
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 1.8 pts
Florida St attack 52.4% · Green Bay defense 53.0%Green Bay attack 51.6% · Florida St defense 50.4%
Ball securityAway 3.7 pts
Florida St attack 16.2% · Green Bay defense 14.7%Green Bay attack 17.0% · Florida St defense 19.1%
Second chancesHome 7.5 pts
Florida St attack 30.0% · Green Bay defense 30.2%Green Bay attack 23.3% · Florida St defense 30.9%
Free-throw pressureAway 2.0 pts
Florida St attack 37.2% · Green Bay defense 36.9%Green Bay attack 37.9% · Florida St defense 35.6%
Tucker Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →