A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
26.0% · rank 30 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Weber St
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.212
-3.8 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
16–162025–26 recorded finals
106.8Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
110.6Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.0Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Weber St.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
16–1632 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 70.7Mean opponent adj. net -2.6 · 30 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 137 / 366 · 63th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
53.1%32 games · lower is betterRank 294 / 366 · 20th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
15.5%32 games · lower is betterRank 105 / 366 · 72th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
16.6%32 games · higher is betterRank 198 / 366 · 46th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
32.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 121 / 366 · 67th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
26.0%32 games · lower is betterRank 30 / 366 · 92th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
37.2%32 games · higher is betterRank 114 / 366 · 69th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
35.2%32 games · lower is betterRank 204 / 366 · 44th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 113.6 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 108.2 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 52.8% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 56.5% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.9% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 31.9% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 33.3% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 39.8% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 73.4% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 72.5% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 46.8% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 50.2% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,284 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnover rate
15.5% · rank 105 of 366 · 32 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
35.2% · rank 204 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Opponent effective FG%
53.1% · rank 294 of 366 · 32 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; Weber St won 4. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 10, 2026 · neutral vs E Washington · L 79–84 · offense 113.9 / defense 121.1
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E WashingtonMar 10, 2026 · neutral | L 79–84 | 199 | 113.9 | 121.1 | 69.4 | 52.7 | 13.0 | 24.1 |
| Portland StMar 3, 2026 · road | L 60–84 | 170 | 87.0 | 121.8 | 68.9 | 42.7 | 20.3 | 27.5 |
| Idaho StFeb 28, 2026 · road | W 83–73 | 239 | 122.0 | 107.3 | 68.1 | 58.6 | 13.2 | 30.0 |
| MontanaFeb 22, 2026 · home | W 92–72 | 178 | 136.2 | 106.6 | 67.5 | 67.0 | 16.3 | 37.5 |
| Montana StFeb 20, 2026 · home | W 82–79 | 163 | 112.7 | 108.5 | 64.7 | 47.9 | 12.4 | 37.2 |
| E WashingtonFeb 14, 2026 · road | L 66–84 | 199 | 96.1 | 122.3 | 68.7 | 41.7 | 14.6 | 23.5 |
| IdahoFeb 13, 2026 · road | W 83–72 | 214 | 129.1 | 112.0 | 64.3 | 56.0 | 9.3 | 28.1 |
| N ArizonaFeb 8, 2026 · home | W 72–53 | 308 | 122.6 | 90.3 | 58.7 | 54.0 | 15.3 | 38.7 |
| N ColoradoFeb 6, 2026 · home | L 74–88 | 149 | 109.5 | 130.2 | 67.6 | 42.9 | 8.9 | 30.0 |
| Sacramento StFeb 3, 2026 · road | L 90–104 | 314 | 115.3 | 133.3 | 78.0 | 52.9 | 14.1 | 30.0 |
| Idaho StJan 31, 2026 · home | W 81–79 | 239 | 120.3 | 117.4 | 67.3 | 55.1 | 16.3 | 36.4 |
| Montana StJan 25, 2026 · road | L 88–91 | 163 | 124.8 | 129.1 | 70.5 | 60.8 | 11.3 | 25.0 |
| MontanaJan 23, 2026 · road | L 65–81 | 178 | 100.6 | 125.3 | 64.6 | 52.0 | 17.0 | 24.1 |
| IdahoJan 18, 2026 · home | L 67–75 | 214 | 87.7 | 98.1 | 76.4 | 34.8 | 22.2 | 33.3 |
| E WashingtonJan 16, 2026 · home | W 91–80 | 199 | 121.3 | 106.6 | 75.0 | 54.9 | 17.3 | 37.1 |
| N ColoradoJan 11, 2026 · road | W 76–71 | 149 | 114.1 | 106.6 | 66.6 | 50.0 | 13.5 | 31.3 |
| N ArizonaJan 9, 2026 · road | W 78–65 | 308 | 124.4 | 103.7 | 62.7 | 56.0 | 8.0 | 33.3 |
| Sacramento StJan 4, 2026 · home | W 95–82 | 314 | 122.9 | 106.1 | 77.3 | 58.5 | 15.5 | 34.4 |
| Portland StJan 1, 2026 · home | L 90–95 | 170 | 106.7 | 112.6 | 75.0 | 45.5 | 11.9 | 27.1 |
| Lincoln (CA)Dec 22, 2025 · home | W 103–64 | Unrated | 137.0 | 85.1 | 75.2 | 65.4 | 14.6 | 44.8 |
| Utah TechDec 21, 2025 · home | L 80–82 | 240 | 120.1 | 123.1 | 66.6 | 61.7 | 16.5 | 23.1 |
| Utah ValleyDec 18, 2025 · road | L 74–90 | 100 | 112.9 | 137.4 | 65.5 | 48.4 | 13.7 | 42.1 |
| Kansas CityDec 11, 2025 · road | W 64–60 | 337 | 86.2 | 80.8 | 74.3 | 45.1 | 24.2 | 30.8 |
| St Thomas (MN)Dec 7, 2025 · road | L 65–88 | 118 | 92.5 | 125.2 | 70.3 | 48.2 | 24.2 | 31.6 |
| Oral RobertsDec 4, 2025 · home | W 92–66 | 300 | 124.7 | 89.4 | 73.8 | 60.0 | 12.2 | 30.0 |
| Kansas CityNov 29, 2025 · home | W 82–61 | 337 | 119.6 | 89.0 | 68.6 | 61.8 | 21.9 | 39.3 |
| UT ArlingtonNov 23, 2025 · home | L 73–74 | 179 | 110.0 | 111.5 | 66.4 | 53.7 | 16.6 | 24.1 |
| CampbellNov 20, 2025 · home | W 91–85 | 208 | 123.3 | 115.1 | 73.8 | 61.3 | 16.3 | 37.5 |
| UC IrvineNov 16, 2025 · road | L 70–79 | 95 | 90.1 | 101.6 | 77.7 | 37.3 | 16.7 | 32.7 |
| Utah StateNov 13, 2025 · road | L 73–83 | 30 | 102.8 | 116.8 | 71.0 | 45.6 | 18.3 | 33.3 |
| UtahNov 9, 2025 · road | L 89–92 | 93 | 104.4 | 107.9 | 75.8 | 49.3 | 17.6 | 36.2 |
| West CoastNov 4, 2025 · home | W 130–38 | Unrated | 144.1 | 42.1 | 90.2 | 62.2 | 11.1 | 44.7 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijan Saine Jr.G | 32 | 32.6 | 17.5 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 60.5 | 24.6% | 32 | 2.3632 games | 14432 games |
| Malek GommaF | 32 | 25.1 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 53.2 | 16.8% | 32 | 1.2932 games | 532 games |
| Viljami VartiainenG | 26 | 30.0 | 12.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 63.2 | 17.8% | 26 | 1.5326 games | 18026 games |
| Nigel BurrisF | 32 | 23.2 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 63.6 | 19.7% | 32 | 0.5332 games | 6032 games |
| Edwin Suarez Jr.F | 31 | 21.6 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 53.4 | 24.2% | 31 | 0.5931 games | 531 games |
| Trevor HennigG | 26 | 24.3 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 54.8 | 21.4% | 26 | 1.0326 games | 6026 games |
| Jace WhitingG | 20 | 30.8 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 54.1 | 18.0% | 20 | 2.0820 games | 6920 games |
| ArDarius GraysonG | 31 | 13.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 43.6 | 19.4% | 31 | 1.3931 games | 4531 games |
| Duce PaschalG | 31 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 43.6 | 18.5% | 31 | 1.2231 games | 4631 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Weber St?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →