A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
38.3% · rank 85 of 366 · 33 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Valparaiso
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.191
-2.0 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
18–152025–26 recorded finals
105.0Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
107.0Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.4Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Valparaiso.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
18–1533 recorded games · 33 paired efficiency samples · pace 66.3Mean opponent adj. net 2.4 · 32 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
48.3%33 games · higher is betterRank 327 / 366 · 11th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
50.3%33 games · lower is betterRank 148 / 366 · 60th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
15.6%33 games · lower is betterRank 116 / 366 · 68th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
17.1%33 games · higher is betterRank 157 / 366 · 57th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
32.7%33 games · higher is betterRank 119 / 366 · 68th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
29.9%33 games · lower is betterRank 173 / 366 · 53th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
38.3%33 games · higher is betterRank 85 / 366 · 77th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
34.6%33 games · lower is betterRank 187 / 366 · 49th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 106.6 | 33 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 105.8 | 33 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 46.6% | 33 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.6% | 33 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.0% | 33 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 32.0% | 33 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 36.7% | 33 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 36.7% | 33 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 70.7% | 33 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 71.3% | 33 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 49.4% | 33 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 48.9% | 33 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,241 source possession rows across 33 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnover rate
15.6% · rank 116 of 366 · 33 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
34.6% · rank 187 of 366 · 33 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Effective FG%
48.3% · rank 327 of 366 · 33 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 14 times in the selected window; Valparaiso won 8. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 7, 2026 · neutral vs Bradley · L 84–90 · offense 95.8 / defense 102.6
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 33 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BradleyMar 7, 2026 · neutral | L 84–90 | 98 | 95.8 | 102.6 | 70.2 | 47.8 | 21.7 | 30.8 |
| Indiana StMar 6, 2026 · neutral | W 63–62 | 140 | 105.6 | 103.9 | 59.7 | 43.9 | 13.4 | 39.0 |
| EvansvilleFeb 28, 2026 · road | L 79–80 | 302 | 116.4 | 117.9 | 67.9 | 51.9 | 8.8 | 15.2 |
| DrakeFeb 26, 2026 · home | W 74–71 | 109 | 116.3 | 111.6 | 63.6 | 55.6 | 17.3 | 31.3 |
| UICFeb 21, 2026 · road | W 71–67 | 138 | 110.6 | 104.3 | 64.2 | 46.4 | 14.0 | 37.1 |
| BradleyFeb 19, 2026 · home | W 79–72 | 98 | 119.0 | 108.5 | 66.4 | 57.8 | 12.1 | 30.0 |
| Indiana StFeb 15, 2026 · home | W 76–75 | 140 | 124.4 | 122.8 | 61.1 | 58.9 | 14.7 | 44.1 |
| Illinois StFeb 13, 2026 · road | L 64–86 | 112 | 93.6 | 125.8 | 68.4 | 40.9 | 11.7 | 27.9 |
| DrakeFeb 10, 2026 · road | W 81–76 | 109 | 121.4 | 113.9 | 66.7 | 58.3 | 16.5 | 37.5 |
| EvansvilleFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 70–63 | 302 | 101.2 | 91.1 | 61.5 | 46.0 | 20.2 | 42.9 |
| BradleyFeb 4, 2026 · road | L 65–72 | 98 | 99.7 | 110.5 | 65.2 | 53.5 | 18.4 | 28.6 |
| Indiana StJan 31, 2026 · road | W 76–72 | 140 | 106.8 | 101.2 | 63.3 | 46.1 | 12.6 | 39.0 |
| BelmontJan 29, 2026 · home | L 77–78 | 86 | 112.8 | 114.3 | 68.2 | 50.0 | 13.2 | 30.6 |
| S IllinoisJan 22, 2026 · home | W 69–63 | 124 | 108.2 | 98.8 | 63.8 | 57.0 | 15.7 | 14.8 |
| Northern IowaJan 17, 2026 · home | W 54–44 | 87 | 91.7 | 74.7 | 58.9 | 38.2 | 11.9 | 22.9 |
| BelmontJan 14, 2026 · road | L 74–78 | 86 | 113.9 | 120.0 | 65.0 | 53.2 | 16.9 | 36.8 |
| Murray StJan 10, 2026 · road | L 79–92 | 130 | 105.8 | 123.2 | 74.7 | 52.6 | 21.4 | 30.3 |
| Illinois StJan 8, 2026 · home | W 77–71 | 112 | 118.9 | 109.6 | 64.8 | 62.2 | 17.0 | 17.4 |
| UICJan 4, 2026 · home | W 66–59 | 138 | 106.4 | 95.1 | 62.0 | 42.7 | 17.7 | 30.0 |
| S IllinoisJan 1, 2026 · road | L 70–75 | 124 | 93.5 | 100.2 | 74.9 | 34.8 | 13.4 | 29.8 |
| Northern IowaDec 30, 2025 · road | L 48–58 | 87 | 83.3 | 100.7 | 57.6 | 31.9 | 13.9 | 34.9 |
| Murray StDec 21, 2025 · home | L 79–85 | 130 | 110.2 | 118.5 | 71.7 | 53.1 | 15.3 | 29.7 |
| NorthwesternDec 17, 2025 · road | L 70–86 | 53 | 102.3 | 125.6 | 68.5 | 50.0 | 21.9 | 31.3 |
| UNC WilmingtonDec 13, 2025 · home | L 70–73 | 113 | 110.2 | 114.9 | 63.5 | 40.0 | 9.4 | 42.9 |
| CalumetDec 6, 2025 · home | W 98–58 | Unrated | 136.7 | 80.9 | 71.7 | 65.0 | 13.9 | 42.4 |
| MarquetteDec 3, 2025 · road | L 72–75 | 46 | 93.6 | 97.5 | 68.4 | 51.6 | 27.3 | 30.6 |
| W MichiganNov 29, 2025 · home | W 84–55 | 295 | 129.2 | 84.6 | 65.0 | 55.5 | 15.4 | 41.9 |
| So IndianaNov 26, 2025 · home | L 56–64 | 338 | 79.6 | 91.0 | 70.3 | 31.6 | 12.8 | 36.2 |
| Cleveland StNov 20, 2025 · road | W 90–75 | 267 | 130.0 | 108.4 | 69.2 | 59.5 | 13.0 | 41.9 |
| BryantNov 16, 2025 · home | W 68–50 | 298 | 108.7 | 79.9 | 62.6 | 46.4 | 11.2 | 32.5 |
| NichollsNov 13, 2025 · home | W 68–63 | 235 | 107.9 | 99.9 | 63.1 | 48.1 | 14.3 | 33.3 |
| KentuckyNov 8, 2025 · road | L 59–107 | 20 | 78.7 | 142.8 | 74.9 | 34.3 | 13.3 | 23.5 |
| E IllinoisNov 5, 2025 · home | W 66–63 | 327 | 94.1 | 89.8 | 70.2 | 40.9 | 20.0 | 34.0 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakim ChaneyG | 33 | 28.2 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 52.2 | 20.9% | 33 | 1.7733 games | 16733 games |
| JT PettigrewF | 33 | 27.7 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 49.7 | 26.7% | 33 | 0.9733 games | 7833 games |
| Owen DeaseF | 32 | 27.8 | 12.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 57.0 | 23.2% | 32 | 0.9832 games | 12532 games |
| Shon TupuolaC | 33 | 24.6 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 59.7 | 13.1% | 33 | 0.8633 games | 133 games |
| Brody WhitakerG | 31 | 25.9 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 57.3 | 17.2% | 31 | 2.1831 games | 9531 games |
| Justus McNairG | 32 | 18.0 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 54.3 | 23.4% | 32 | 1.1832 games | 6632 games |
| Carter HopoiF | 33 | 14.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 47.9 | 15.6% | 33 | 1.0033 games | 2533 games |
| Isaiah BarnesG | 29 | 13.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 44.5 | 18.9% | 29 | 0.7129 games | 4329 games |
| Mark Brown Jr.G | 22 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 32.3 | 18.8% | 22 | 1.9322 games | 6022 games |
| Sader ServilusG | 25 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 51.9 | 14.7% | 25 | 1.4225 games | 2325 games |
| Tucker TornattaC | 26 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 54.2 | 21.5% | 26 | 0.6126 games | 1426 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Valparaiso?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →