A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
42.0% · rank 27 of 366 · 36 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
VCU
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.39
+15.8 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
28–82025–26 recorded finals
114.9Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
99.2Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.3Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on VCU.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
28–836 recorded games · 36 paired efficiency samples · pace 69.2Mean opponent adj. net 4.3 · 36 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
53.6%36 games · higher is betterRank 92 / 366 · 75th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
49.0%36 games · lower is betterRank 80 / 366 · 78th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
15.1%36 games · lower is betterRank 79 / 366 · 79th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
17.0%36 games · higher is betterRank 168 / 366 · 54th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
31.6%36 games · higher is betterRank 158 / 366 · 57th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
30.0%36 games · lower is betterRank 184 / 366 · 50th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
42.0%36 games · higher is betterRank 27 / 366 · 93th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
32.8%36 games · lower is betterRank 141 / 366 · 62th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 116.4 | 36 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 103.3 | 36 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 53.0% | 36 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 48.7% | 36 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 36.3% | 36 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.0% | 36 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 43.8% | 36 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 35.1% | 36 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 73.6% | 36 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 70.7% | 36 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 51.9% | 36 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 50.8% | 36 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,510 source possession rows across 36 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnover rate
15.1% · rank 79 of 366 · 36 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Turnovers forced
17.0% · rank 168 of 366 · 36 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
A closer look
Opponent offensive rebound rate
30.0% · rank 184 of 366 · 36 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 6 times in the selected window; VCU won 4. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 22, 2026 · neutral vs Illinois · L 55–76 · offense 83.4 / defense 115.2
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 36 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IllinoisMar 22, 2026 · neutral | L 55–76 | 7 | 83.4 | 115.2 | 66.0 | 40.2 | 15.2 | 26.7 |
| North CarolinaMar 19, 2026 · neutral | W 82–78 | 22 | 107.1 | 101.9 | 68.0 | 53.8 | 13.1 | 17.5 |
| DaytonMar 15, 2026 · neutral | W 70–62 | 58 | 108.4 | 96.0 | 64.6 | 50.0 | 7.7 | 16.2 |
| Saint Joseph'sMar 14, 2026 · neutral | W 77–64 | 108 | 118.4 | 98.4 | 65.0 | 51.6 | 10.8 | 31.6 |
| DuquesneMar 13, 2026 · neutral | W 71–66 | 129 | 109.6 | 101.9 | 64.8 | 54.1 | 17.0 | 25.8 |
| DaytonMar 7, 2026 · road | W 68–62 | 58 | 112.1 | 102.2 | 60.7 | 56.9 | 11.5 | 17.2 |
| George MasonMar 4, 2026 · home | W 70–65 | 90 | 115.1 | 106.9 | 60.8 | 50.0 | 9.9 | 32.3 |
| FordhamFeb 28, 2026 · home | W 82–63 | 187 | 120.2 | 92.4 | 68.2 | 57.8 | 14.7 | 31.4 |
| Saint LouisFeb 21, 2026 · road | L 75–88 | 55 | 97.3 | 114.1 | 77.1 | 39.8 | 20.7 | 38.3 |
| G WashingtonFeb 18, 2026 · home | W 89–75 | 110 | 130.2 | 109.7 | 68.4 | 60.6 | 11.7 | 25.0 |
| RichmondFeb 14, 2026 · road | W 78–67 | 162 | 111.6 | 95.9 | 69.9 | 51.7 | 15.7 | 27.8 |
| La SalleFeb 11, 2026 · road | W 77–68 | 242 | 116.7 | 103.0 | 66.0 | 55.0 | 19.7 | 42.1 |
| DaytonFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 99–73 | 58 | 119.8 | 88.3 | 82.7 | 53.1 | 14.5 | 28.2 |
| FordhamFeb 4, 2026 · road | W 63–59 | 187 | 98.5 | 92.2 | 64.0 | 52.3 | 23.4 | 34.6 |
| Loyola ChicagoJan 31, 2026 · home | W 89–75 | 202 | 130.5 | 110.0 | 68.2 | 55.1 | 10.3 | 32.4 |
| RichmondJan 28, 2026 · home | W 77–69 | 162 | 126.8 | 113.6 | 60.7 | 51.9 | 11.5 | 38.7 |
| DavidsonJan 24, 2026 · road | W 75–69 | 121 | 121.8 | 112.1 | 61.6 | 59.8 | 19.5 | 44.0 |
| Saint Joseph'sJan 19, 2026 · home | W 79–72 | 108 | 108.6 | 99.0 | 72.8 | 51.6 | 13.7 | 27.5 |
| Rhode IslandJan 14, 2026 · road | W 84–75 | 158 | 124.7 | 111.4 | 67.4 | 60.0 | 7.4 | 25.8 |
| George MasonJan 10, 2026 · road | L 80–86 | 90 | 120.1 | 129.1 | 66.6 | 53.5 | 12.0 | 32.4 |
| Saint LouisJan 8, 2026 · home | L 62–71 | 55 | 80.5 | 92.2 | 77.0 | 33.3 | 15.6 | 20.0 |
| DuquesneJan 3, 2026 · road | W 93–80 | 129 | 130.4 | 112.2 | 71.3 | 63.9 | 16.8 | 34.5 |
| St BonaventureDec 31, 2025 · home | W 89–82 | 125 | 131.4 | 121.1 | 67.7 | 59.4 | 10.3 | 20.0 |
| RiderDec 23, 2025 · home | W 100–79 | 342 | 138.6 | 109.5 | 72.2 | 66.9 | 12.5 | 34.5 |
| AmericanDec 19, 2025 · home | W 105–83 | 247 | 148.9 | 117.7 | 70.5 | 65.7 | 14.2 | 50.0 |
| NiagaraDec 16, 2025 · home | W 84–58 | 331 | 133.6 | 92.2 | 62.9 | 64.8 | 15.9 | 36.7 |
| New MexicoDec 11, 2025 · home | L 78–81 | 40 | 111.6 | 115.9 | 69.9 | 44.4 | 17.2 | 41.5 |
| SamfordDec 6, 2025 · home | W 83–57 | 147 | 118.2 | 81.2 | 70.2 | 53.8 | 17.1 | 40.5 |
| Virginia TechNov 28, 2025 · neutral | W 86–68 | 79 | 121.7 | 96.2 | 70.7 | 62.3 | 19.8 | 33.3 |
| VanderbiltNov 27, 2025 · neutral | L 74–89 | 29 | 98.5 | 118.4 | 75.2 | 42.0 | 17.3 | 21.4 |
| South FloridaNov 26, 2025 · neutral | W 78–66 | 76 | 107.8 | 91.2 | 72.4 | 44.4 | 15.2 | 38.1 |
| Coppin StNov 23, 2025 · home | W 101–58 | 364 | 135.6 | 77.9 | 74.5 | 62.3 | 10.7 | 31.0 |
| NC StateNov 18, 2025 · road | L 79–85 | 45 | 107.3 | 115.5 | 73.6 | 50.8 | 16.3 | 27.9 |
| Saint Peter'sNov 13, 2025 · home | W 78–61 | 250 | 114.2 | 89.3 | 68.3 | 53.1 | 24.9 | 39.4 |
| Utah StateNov 8, 2025 · neutral | L 77–80 | 30 | 100.9 | 104.8 | 76.3 | 50.8 | 24.9 | 37.8 |
| WagnerNov 4, 2025 · home | W 103–74 | 313 | 135.4 | 97.3 | 76.1 | 60.3 | 13.1 | 41.0 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazar DjokovicF | 35 | 27.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 61.8 | 22.0% | 35 | 0.7335 games | 6735 games |
| Barry EvansF | 36 | 26.6 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 50.6 | 15.4% | 36 | 1.9536 games | 8236 games |
| Terrence Hill Jr.G | 36 | 25.1 | 15.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 62.2 | 26.4% | 36 | 2.5536 games | 21936 games |
| Brandon JenningsG | 36 | 24.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 57.2 | 17.6% | 36 | 1.5836 games | 5836 games |
| Nyk LewisG | 35 | 23.7 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 56.5 | 18.2% | 35 | 1.6535 games | 12735 games |
| Michael BelleF | 36 | 22.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 58.4 | 16.1% | 36 | 1.1236 games | 4036 games |
| Jadrian TraceyG | 36 | 21.9 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 53.9 | 23.9% | 36 | 1.0036 games | 17236 games |
| Tyrell WardG | 31 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 54.8 | 22.3% | 31 | 0.5431 games | 6231 games |
| Ahmad NowellG | 28 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 62.2 | 19.2% | 28 | 1.2128 games | 5828 games |
| Keyshawn MitchellF | 20 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 51.4 | 16.5% | 20 | 1.1120 games | 2420 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around VCU?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
13Source-listed players
12Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
87%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 7 | 4,211 | 4,211 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 6 | 2,058 | 2,058 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,269 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
13 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazar Djokovic →F | Same programVCU Rams | 27.6 | 13.2 | 61.8% |
| Terrence Hill Jr. →G | Same programVCU Rams | 25.1 | 15.0 | 62.2% |
| Brandon Jennings →G | Same programVCU Rams | 24.9 | 8.5 | 57.2% |
| Nyk Lewis →G | Same programVCU Rams | 23.7 | 8.7 | 56.5% |
| Michael Belle →F | Same programVCU Rams | 22.4 | 7.3 | 58.4% |
| Jadrian Tracey →G | Same programVCU Rams | 21.9 | 9.6 | 53.9% |
| Tyrell Ward →G | Same programVCU Rams | 13.7 | 5.7 | 54.8% |
| Ahmad Nowell →G | Same programVCU Rams | 10.5 | 4.5 | 62.2% |
| Keyshawn Mitchell →F | Same programVCU Rams | 10.6 | 3.2 | 51.4% |
| Jordan Tillery →G | Same programVCU Rams | 7.3 | 4.7 | 65.7% |
| Christian Fermin →F | Same programVCU Rams | 12.8 | 0.8 | 26.1% |
| Jordann Dumont →F | Same programVCU Rams | 2.4 | 0.9 | 40.2% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
VCU vs Providence
79.0VCU
75.0Providence
Providence win estimate43.0%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-4.1
Projected total154.0
80% home-margin range-20.0 to 11.9
Estimated possessions69.9
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 2.8 pts
Providence attack 54.2% · VCU defense 47.6%VCU attack 53.1% · Providence defense 49.3%
Ball securityHome 2.3 pts
Providence attack 17.3% · VCU defense 18.2%VCU attack 16.5% · Providence defense 15.2%
Second chancesAway 1.0 pts
Providence attack 31.9% · VCU defense 29.2%VCU attack 32.0% · Providence defense 28.4%
Free-throw pressureAway 3.7 pts
Providence attack 36.3% · VCU defense 34.0%VCU attack 38.3% · Providence defense 32.3%
Lahaina Civic Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →