A relative strength
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
28.8% · rank 52 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Virginia Tech
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.79
+9.5 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
19–132025–26 recorded finals
113.0Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
103.5Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.7Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Virginia Tech.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
19–1332 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 68.0Mean opponent adj. net 8.5 · 32 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.2%32 games · higher is betterRank 161 / 366 · 56th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
50.8%32 games · lower is betterRank 175 / 366 · 52th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
14.9%32 games · lower is betterRank 65 / 366 · 82th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
17.2%32 games · higher is betterRank 151 / 366 · 59th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
31.9%32 games · higher is betterRank 153 / 366 · 58th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
32.6%32 games · lower is betterRank 299 / 366 · 18th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
34.0%32 games · higher is betterRank 209 / 366 · 43th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
28.8%32 games · lower is betterRank 52 / 366 · 86th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 112.8 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 107.2 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 51.5% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 54.1% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 35.5% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 30.6% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 39.7% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 39.6% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 74.3% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 74.3% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 52.4% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 47.0% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,235 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnover rate
14.9% · rank 65 of 366 · 32 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
34.0% · rank 209 of 366 · 32 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
A closer look
Opponent offensive rebound rate
32.6% · rank 299 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; Virginia Tech won 5. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 10, 2026 · neutral vs Wake Forest · L 89–95 · offense 118.6 / defense 126.6
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake ForestMar 10, 2026 · neutral | L 89–95 | 60 | 118.6 | 126.6 | 66.7 | 47.1 | 17.3 | 50.0 |
| VirginiaMar 7, 2026 · road | L 72–76 | 35 | 108.5 | 114.6 | 66.3 | 48.4 | 15.1 | 35.1 |
| Boston CollegeMar 4, 2026 · home | W 72–63 | 152 | 108.8 | 95.2 | 66.2 | 53.8 | 18.1 | 20.0 |
| North CarolinaMar 1, 2026 · road | L 82–89 | 22 | 118.4 | 128.5 | 69.2 | 57.3 | 13.0 | 20.7 |
| Wake ForestFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 82–63 | 60 | 135.3 | 104.0 | 60.6 | 59.8 | 8.3 | 43.3 |
| MiamiFeb 18, 2026 · road | L 66–67 | 57 | 105.1 | 106.7 | 62.8 | 57.1 | 17.5 | 25.9 |
| Florida StFeb 14, 2026 · home | L 69–92 | 81 | 106.8 | 142.4 | 64.6 | 51.8 | 15.5 | 22.6 |
| ClemsonFeb 12, 2026 · road | W 76–66 | 26 | 117.2 | 101.8 | 64.9 | 63.0 | 20.0 | 17.4 |
| NC StateFeb 7, 2026 · road | L 73–82 | 45 | 101.0 | 113.5 | 72.3 | 48.4 | 20.8 | 32.4 |
| DukeJan 31, 2026 · home | L 58–72 | 1 | 100.7 | 125.0 | 57.6 | 48.2 | 17.4 | 34.4 |
| Georgia TechJan 28, 2026 · home | W 71–65 | 137 | 101.1 | 92.6 | 70.2 | 40.0 | 11.4 | 33.3 |
| LouisvilleJan 24, 2026 · road | L 71–85 | 32 | 100.0 | 119.7 | 71.0 | 53.2 | 18.3 | 23.7 |
| SyracuseJan 22, 2026 · road | W 76–74 | 102 | 108.0 | 105.2 | 70.4 | 49.0 | 14.2 | 24.2 |
| Notre DameJan 17, 2026 · home | W 89–76 | 114 | 125.2 | 106.9 | 71.1 | 57.5 | 16.9 | 34.6 |
| SMUJan 15, 2026 · road | L 76–77 | 51 | 109.8 | 111.2 | 69.2 | 53.3 | 14.4 | 30.8 |
| CaliforniaJan 10, 2026 · home | W 78–75 | 104 | 116.7 | 112.2 | 66.9 | 48.1 | 15.0 | 36.7 |
| StanfordJan 8, 2026 · home | L 68–69 | 77 | 113.2 | 114.9 | 60.1 | 46.2 | 15.0 | 40.0 |
| Wake ForestJan 3, 2026 · road | L 78–81 | 60 | 105.1 | 109.1 | 74.2 | 56.6 | 25.6 | 27.6 |
| VirginiaDec 31, 2025 · home | W 95–85 | 35 | 99.2 | 88.7 | 69.7 | 40.9 | 14.6 | 35.1 |
| ElonDec 20, 2025 · home | W 82–81 | 237 | 118.0 | 116.5 | 61.8 | 51.7 | 18.7 | 48.6 |
| MD EasternDec 14, 2025 · home | W 82–53 | 361 | 126.3 | 81.6 | 64.9 | 64.0 | 12.3 | 17.9 |
| W CarolinaDec 12, 2025 · home | W 96–74 | 245 | 132.3 | 101.9 | 72.6 | 63.3 | 15.2 | 36.7 |
| George MasonDec 6, 2025 · home | W 73–62 | 90 | 113.3 | 96.3 | 64.4 | 55.3 | 14.0 | 25.8 |
| South CarolinaDec 3, 2025 · road | W 86–83 | 99 | 110.8 | 106.9 | 69.0 | 54.5 | 11.6 | 20.7 |
| VCUNov 28, 2025 · neutral | L 68–86 | 39 | 96.2 | 121.7 | 70.7 | 50.9 | 18.4 | 23.5 |
| Saint Mary'sNov 27, 2025 · neutral | L 66–77 | 18 | 97.4 | 113.6 | 67.8 | 36.0 | 13.3 | 39.1 |
| Colorado StNov 26, 2025 · neutral | W 66–64 | 67 | 106.1 | 102.9 | 62.2 | 52.0 | 12.9 | 17.2 |
| BryantNov 20, 2025 · home | W 78–61 | 298 | 113.0 | 88.4 | 69.0 | 55.2 | 14.5 | 35.5 |
| CharlotteNov 16, 2025 · home | W 84–76 | 181 | 126.8 | 114.7 | 66.3 | 45.0 | 9.1 | 39.0 |
| Saint Joseph'sNov 13, 2025 · home | W 94–59 | 108 | 127.0 | 79.7 | 74.0 | 59.6 | 9.5 | 32.4 |
| ProvidenceNov 8, 2025 · neutral | W 107–101 | 73 | 120.0 | 113.3 | 79.3 | 58.2 | 12.3 | 27.9 |
| Charleston SoNov 4, 2025 · home | W 98–67 | 278 | 125.7 | 85.9 | 78.0 | 52.0 | 9.0 | 40.9 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben HammondG | 32 | 31.5 | 13.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 57.5 | 21.0% | 32 | 2.2432 games | 10232 games |
| Neoklis AvdalasG | 31 | 31.7 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 49.1 | 23.3% | 31 | 2.0631 games | 15631 games |
| Amani HansberryF | 30 | 30.7 | 14.3 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 57.6 | 24.1% | 30 | 1.1630 games | 9630 games |
| Jailen BedfordG | 31 | 26.0 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 50.7 | 24.0% | 31 | 1.1831 games | 14531 games |
| Jaden SchuttG | 32 | 24.8 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 56.7 | 14.7% | 32 | 2.3132 games | 16932 games |
| Tobi LawalF | 23 | 29.1 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 0.6 | 63.5 | 19.9% | 23 | 0.3423 games | 4823 games |
| Christian GurdakC | 31 | 17.1 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 65.2 | 14.4% | 31 | 0.5631 games | 031 games |
| Tyler JohnsonG | 17 | 26.2 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 63.7 | 13.3% | 17 | 2.2517 games | 4117 games |
| Antonio DornC | 24 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 62.5 | 15.4% | 24 | 0.8324 games | 024 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Virginia Tech?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
12Source-listed players
10Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
90%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 7 | 4,180 | 4,180 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 2 | 993 | 993 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 3 | 733 | 733 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (5,906 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
12 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Hammond →G | Same programVirginia Tech Hokies | 31.5 | 13.2 | 57.5% |
| Neoklis Avdalas →G | Same programVirginia Tech Hokies | 31.7 | 12.1 | 49.1% |
| Amani Hansberry →F | Same programVirginia Tech Hokies | 30.7 | 14.3 | 57.6% |
| Jailen Bedford →G | Same programVirginia Tech Hokies | 26.0 | 11.3 | 50.7% |
| Jaden Schutt →G | Same programVirginia Tech Hokies | 24.8 | 7.7 | 56.7% |
| Christian Gurdak →C | Same programVirginia Tech Hokies | 17.1 | 5.6 | 65.2% |
| Tyler Johnson →G | Same programVirginia Tech Hokies | 26.2 | 8.0 | 63.7% |
| Antonio Dorn →C | Same programVirginia Tech Hokies | 8.5 | 2.6 | 62.5% |
| Izaiah Pasha →G | Same programVirginia Tech Hokies | 8.2 | 2.0 | 39.0% |
| Sin'Cere Jones →F | Same programVirginia Tech Hokies | 6.5 | 0.6 | 26.1% |
| Brett Freeman →G | No prior appearance observedNo prior program listed | — | — | — |
| Solomon Davis →C | No prior appearance observedNo prior program listed | — | — | — |
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Richmond vs Virginia Tech
68.0Richmond
77.2Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech win estimate76.5%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin9.3
Projected total145.2
80% home-margin range-6.6 to 25.2
Estimated possessions67.0
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.1 pts
Virginia Tech attack 53.4% · Richmond defense 50.9%Richmond attack 51.8% · Virginia Tech defense 50.4%
Ball securityAway 2.0 pts
Virginia Tech attack 16.7% · Richmond defense 16.7%Richmond attack 15.2% · Virginia Tech defense 17.2%
Second chancesHome 7.8 pts
Virginia Tech attack 30.4% · Richmond defense 28.8%Richmond attack 22.9% · Virginia Tech defense 29.1%
Free-throw pressureAway 3.5 pts
Virginia Tech attack 34.0% · Richmond defense 33.7%Richmond attack 34.2% · Virginia Tech defense 30.4%
Cassell Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →