A relative strength
Turnovers forced
20.0% · rank 34 of 366 · 34 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Southern
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.282
-8.4 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
17–172025–26 recorded finals
101.0Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
109.4Adjusted defense · lower is better
70.0Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Southern.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
17–1734 recorded games · 34 paired efficiency samples · pace 72.5Mean opponent adj. net -7.2 · 31 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
51.0%34 games · higher is betterRank 220 / 366 · 40th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
51.9%34 games · lower is betterRank 238 / 366 · 35th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.3%34 games · lower is betterRank 160 / 366 · 56th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
20.0%34 games · higher is betterRank 34 / 366 · 91th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
32.0%34 games · higher is betterRank 145 / 366 · 61th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
30.4%34 games · lower is betterRank 203 / 366 · 45th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
39.5%34 games · higher is betterRank 62 / 366 · 83th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
41.2%34 games · lower is betterRank 325 / 366 · 11th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 108.7 | 34 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 106.4 | 34 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 50.4% | 34 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.3% | 34 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.9% | 34 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 35.2% | 34 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 32.5% | 34 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 37.9% | 34 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 69.8% | 34 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 75.6% | 34 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 54.0% | 34 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 53.5% | 34 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,520 source possession rows across 34 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
39.5% · rank 62 of 366 · 34 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
A closer look
Opponent effective FG%
51.9% · rank 238 of 366 · 34 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
41.2% · rank 325 of 366 · 34 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 14 times in the selected window; Southern won 8. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 14, 2026 · neutral vs Prairie View · L 66–72 · offense 100.2 / defense 109.3
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 34 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prairie ViewMar 14, 2026 · neutral | L 66–72 | 336 | 100.2 | 109.3 | 65.9 | 41.1 | 16.7 | 41.0 |
| Florida A&MMar 14, 2026 · neutral | W 73–70 | 335 | 101.9 | 97.7 | 71.6 | 50.0 | 16.8 | 31.7 |
| AR-Pine BluffMar 13, 2026 · neutral | W 84–81 | 357 | 128.4 | 123.9 | 65.4 | 66.7 | 16.8 | 33.3 |
| Alabama A&MMar 6, 2026 · road | W 88–85 | 346 | 121.1 | 117.0 | 72.7 | 57.7 | 15.1 | 31.3 |
| Alabama StMar 4, 2026 · road | W 71–64 | 322 | 100.0 | 90.2 | 71.0 | 41.9 | 12.7 | 31.7 |
| BethuneFeb 28, 2026 · home | L 79–82 | 301 | 106.6 | 110.6 | 74.1 | 52.3 | 14.8 | 33.3 |
| Florida A&MFeb 27, 2026 · home | L 71–82 | 335 | 100.9 | 116.6 | 70.4 | 44.9 | 10.0 | 23.7 |
| GramblingFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 87–73 | 307 | 116.6 | 97.8 | 74.6 | 66.7 | 22.8 | 13.0 |
| Texas SouthernFeb 17, 2026 · road | L 73–74 | 320 | 100.2 | 101.6 | 72.8 | 49.2 | 16.5 | 26.3 |
| Prairie ViewFeb 14, 2026 · road | W 87–82 | 336 | 113.1 | 106.6 | 76.9 | 52.5 | 14.3 | 35.5 |
| Alabama StFeb 10, 2026 · home | W 69–68 | 322 | 104.7 | 103.2 | 65.9 | 43.9 | 13.7 | 30.0 |
| Alabama A&MFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 81–68 | 346 | 123.9 | 104.0 | 65.4 | 54.2 | 13.8 | 43.3 |
| Jackson StFeb 3, 2026 · road | W 96–91 | 345 | 119.3 | 113.1 | 71.5 | 52.1 | 11.2 | 36.4 |
| Alcorn StJan 31, 2026 · road | L 73–78 | 353 | 112.4 | 120.0 | 65.0 | 50.0 | 15.4 | 36.1 |
| Miss Valley StJan 28, 2026 · home | W 80–69 | 365 | 115.5 | 99.6 | 69.3 | 52.8 | 17.3 | 29.0 |
| AR-Pine BluffJan 24, 2026 · home | L 74–75 | 357 | 106.7 | 108.2 | 69.3 | 46.6 | 18.8 | 41.7 |
| GramblingJan 17, 2026 · road | W 71–53 | 307 | 101.7 | 75.9 | 69.8 | 51.8 | 18.6 | 27.8 |
| BethuneJan 13, 2026 · road | W 77–73 | 301 | 106.0 | 100.5 | 72.6 | 41.7 | 13.8 | 37.0 |
| Florida A&MJan 11, 2026 · road | L 59–67 | 335 | 87.8 | 99.8 | 67.2 | 39.4 | 20.8 | 30.8 |
| Prairie ViewJan 6, 2026 · home | L 85–89 | 336 | 111.8 | 117.1 | 76.0 | 47.5 | 17.1 | 35.9 |
| Texas SouthernJan 3, 2026 · home | W 84–73 | 320 | 106.8 | 92.8 | 78.7 | 57.3 | 15.3 | 16.1 |
| IllinoisDec 29, 2025 · road | L 55–90 | 7 | 85.0 | 139.2 | 64.7 | 37.1 | 12.4 | 31.0 |
| BaylorDec 21, 2025 · road | L 67–111 | 33 | 95.7 | 158.6 | 70.0 | 44.0 | 12.9 | 28.6 |
| CA BaptistDec 17, 2025 · road | L 67–75 | 131 | 96.5 | 108.0 | 69.4 | 44.8 | 20.2 | 31.6 |
| Texas StDec 11, 2025 · road | L 83–86 | 228 | 104.6 | 108.3 | 79.4 | 55.6 | 23.9 | 29.7 |
| TexasDec 9, 2025 · road | L 69–95 | 34 | 96.5 | 132.8 | 71.5 | 44.9 | 19.6 | 30.0 |
| LA ChristianDec 1, 2025 · home | W 101–48 | Unrated | 133.7 | 63.6 | 75.5 | 63.8 | 14.6 | 38.7 |
| N'Western StNov 29, 2025 · road | W 75–73 | 296 | 108.5 | 105.6 | 69.2 | 55.7 | 20.2 | 35.3 |
| San José StNov 22, 2025 · road | L 66–80 | 226 | 94.7 | 114.8 | 69.7 | 45.1 | 20.1 | 28.9 |
| WashingtonNov 19, 2025 · road | L 93–99 | 66 | 100.6 | 107.1 | 74.0 | 48.6 | 19.5 | 31.9 |
| Champ ChrstnNov 16, 2025 · home | W 129–64 | Unrated | 148.0 | 73.4 | 87.2 | 74.0 | 13.8 | 39.3 |
| EcclesiaNov 10, 2025 · home | W 115–51 | Unrated | 133.3 | 59.1 | 86.3 | 63.8 | 13.9 | 41.2 |
| MarquetteNov 6, 2025 · road | L 82–100 | 46 | 103.0 | 125.6 | 79.6 | 47.7 | 16.3 | 27.5 |
| ArkansasNov 4, 2025 · road | L 77–109 | 23 | 95.0 | 134.4 | 81.1 | 47.8 | 14.8 | 27.9 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael JacobsG | 32 | 32.1 | 17.3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 49.7 | 29.9% | 32 | 1.9832 games | 12432 games |
| DaMariee JonesF | 30 | 25.4 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 1.4 | 60.8 | 17.0% | 30 | 1.4630 games | 230 games |
| Cam AmboreeG | 28 | 27.0 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 50.4 | 20.4% | 28 | 1.7628 games | 12028 games |
| Terrance Dixon Jr.F | 34 | 20.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 68.3 | 17.5% | 34 | 0.5534 games | 034 games |
| Fazl OshodiG | 34 | 20.3 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 55.4 | 19.9% | 34 | 1.5034 games | 17534 games |
| Brandon HardyG | 33 | 19.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 56.0 | 10.7% | 33 | 0.8833 games | 5333 games |
| AJ BarnesF | 28 | 22.0 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 49.6 | 20.3% | 28 | 1.9128 games | 7428 games |
| Malek AbdelgowadF | 28 | 17.1 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 65.4 | 26.6% | 28 | 0.3528 games | 1028 games |
| Ashton MageeF | 31 | 11.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 51.9 | 14.5% | 31 | 0.3931 games | 531 games |
| Joe ManningG | 30 | 11.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 48.0 | 17.0% | 30 | 1.6830 games | 5230 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Southern?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
19Source-listed players
16Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 3,596 | 3,596 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 9 | 3,279 | 3,279 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,875 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
19 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jacobs →G | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 32.1 | 17.3 | 49.7% |
| DaMariee Jones →F | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 25.4 | 9.9 | 60.8% |
| Cam Amboree →G | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 27.0 | 9.6 | 50.4% |
| Terrance Dixon Jr. →F | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 20.5 | 9.0 | 68.3% |
| Fazl Oshodi →G | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 20.3 | 8.9 | 55.4% |
| Brandon Hardy →G | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 19.0 | 3.8 | 56.0% |
| AJ Barnes →F | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 22.0 | 8.3 | 49.6% |
| Malek Abdelgowad →F | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 17.1 | 10.6 | 65.4% |
| Ashton Magee →F | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 11.3 | 3.0 | 51.9% |
| Joe Manning →G | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 11.6 | 3.1 | 48.0% |
| Puoch Dobuol →F | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 8.5 | 1.6 | 35.7% |
| Keith Lamar →F | Same programSouthern Jaguars | 15.7 | 2.3 | 29.6% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Southern vs Iowa State
58.0Southern
87.1Iowa State
Iowa State win estimate96.6%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin29.1
Projected total145.1
80% home-margin range13.2 to 45.0
Estimated possessions69.9
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 2.1 pts
Iowa State attack 55.3% · Southern defense 52.8%Southern attack 48.8% · Iowa State defense 48.3%
Ball securityAway 1.4 pts
Iowa State attack 15.7% · Southern defense 19.5%Southern attack 17.3% · Iowa State defense 22.5%
Second chancesHome 1.0 pts
Iowa State attack 33.8% · Southern defense 30.4%Southern attack 29.1% · Iowa State defense 26.7%
Free-throw pressureAway 10.1 pts
Iowa State attack 36.3% · Southern defense 41.8%Southern attack 36.4% · Iowa State defense 31.7%
Hilton Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →