A relative strength
Opponent effective FG%
45.7% · rank 11 of 366 · 36 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Virginia
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.35
+17.3 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
30–62025–26 recorded finals
115.5Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
98.3Adjusted defense · lower is better
64.7Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Virginia.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
30–636 recorded games · 36 paired efficiency samples · pace 66.4Mean opponent adj. net 8.7 · 36 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
54.6%36 games · higher is betterRank 60 / 366 · 84th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
45.7%36 games · lower is betterRank 11 / 366 · 97th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.0%36 games · lower is betterRank 142 / 366 · 61th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
15.4%36 games · higher is betterRank 278 / 366 · 24th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
37.9%36 games · higher is betterRank 11 / 366 · 97th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
29.2%36 games · lower is betterRank 141 / 366 · 62th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
32.3%36 games · higher is betterRank 248 / 366 · 32th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
32.9%36 games · lower is betterRank 142 / 366 · 61th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 119.0 | 36 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 101.8 | 36 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 54.9% | 36 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 44.8% | 36 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 36.2% | 36 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 31.6% | 36 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 46.7% | 36 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 37.8% | 36 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 72.8% | 36 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 76.0% | 36 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 58.3% | 36 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 50.9% | 36 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,436 source possession rows across 36 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Offensive rebound rate
37.9% · rank 11 of 366 · 36 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
32.3% · rank 248 of 366 · 36 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
A closer look
Turnovers forced
15.4% · rank 278 of 366 · 36 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; Virginia won 8. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 22, 2026 · neutral vs Tennessee · L 72–79 · offense 109.8 / defense 120.5
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 36 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TennesseeMar 22, 2026 · neutral | L 72–79 | 11 | 109.8 | 120.5 | 65.6 | 47.8 | 10.7 | 36.4 |
| Wright StMar 20, 2026 · neutral | W 82–73 | 154 | 126.3 | 112.4 | 64.9 | 63.9 | 21.6 | 38.5 |
| DukeMar 15, 2026 · neutral | L 70–74 | 1 | 110.1 | 116.4 | 63.6 | 51.9 | 18.9 | 32.3 |
| MiamiMar 13, 2026 · neutral | W 84–62 | 57 | 134.6 | 99.3 | 62.4 | 61.9 | 16.0 | 41.4 |
| NC StateMar 12, 2026 · neutral | W 81–74 | 45 | 118.2 | 108.0 | 68.5 | 57.4 | 14.6 | 28.1 |
| Virginia TechMar 7, 2026 · home | W 76–72 | 79 | 114.6 | 108.5 | 66.3 | 52.6 | 18.1 | 37.5 |
| Wake ForestMar 4, 2026 · home | W 75–70 | 60 | 110.3 | 102.9 | 68.0 | 51.7 | 14.7 | 32.4 |
| DukeFeb 28, 2026 · road | L 51–77 | 1 | 83.7 | 126.4 | 60.9 | 35.5 | 14.8 | 23.1 |
| NC StateFeb 25, 2026 · home | W 90–61 | 45 | 128.0 | 86.7 | 70.3 | 63.8 | 17.1 | 25.9 |
| MiamiFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 86–83 | 57 | 132.7 | 128.1 | 64.8 | 70.0 | 13.9 | 18.2 |
| Georgia TechFeb 19, 2026 · road | W 94–68 | 137 | 118.8 | 86.0 | 79.1 | 54.4 | 17.7 | 45.5 |
| Ohio StateFeb 15, 2026 · neutral | W 70–66 | 25 | 106.5 | 100.4 | 65.7 | 48.0 | 18.3 | 37.5 |
| Florida StFeb 11, 2026 · road | W 61–58 | 81 | 89.5 | 85.1 | 68.1 | 45.9 | 20.6 | 31.6 |
| SyracuseFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 72–59 | 102 | 116.2 | 95.2 | 62.0 | 49.2 | 16.1 | 43.6 |
| PittFeb 4, 2026 · home | W 67–47 | 71 | 110.8 | 77.7 | 60.5 | 53.4 | 16.5 | 36.1 |
| Boston CollegeJan 31, 2026 · road | W 73–66 | 152 | 111.5 | 100.8 | 65.4 | 46.9 | 10.7 | 35.9 |
| Notre DameJan 28, 2026 · road | W 100–97 | 114 | 127.6 | 123.7 | 62.7 | 55.4 | 14.0 | 35.0 |
| North CarolinaJan 24, 2026 · home | L 80–85 | 22 | 117.7 | 125.0 | 68.0 | 51.6 | 16.2 | 44.4 |
| SMUJan 17, 2026 · road | W 72–68 | 51 | 115.8 | 109.4 | 62.2 | 51.7 | 17.7 | 44.4 |
| LouisvilleJan 14, 2026 · road | W 79–70 | 32 | 119.4 | 105.8 | 66.2 | 52.8 | 19.6 | 42.4 |
| StanfordJan 10, 2026 · home | W 70–55 | 77 | 110.1 | 86.5 | 63.6 | 49.1 | 14.2 | 36.4 |
| CaliforniaJan 8, 2026 · home | W 84–60 | 104 | 123.2 | 88.0 | 68.2 | 57.5 | 16.1 | 39.4 |
| NC StateJan 3, 2026 · road | W 76–61 | 45 | 117.8 | 94.6 | 64.5 | 62.5 | 21.7 | 34.6 |
| Virginia TechDec 31, 2025 · road | L 85–95 | 79 | 88.7 | 99.2 | 69.7 | 41.6 | 17.7 | 29.8 |
| AmericanDec 22, 2025 · home | W 95–51 | 247 | 149.1 | 80.1 | 63.7 | 69.7 | 14.1 | 51.9 |
| MarylandDec 20, 2025 · home | W 80–72 | 63 | 119.0 | 107.1 | 67.2 | 50.8 | 11.9 | 40.0 |
| MD EasternDec 10, 2025 · home | W 84–60 | 361 | 125.4 | 89.6 | 67.0 | 58.9 | 10.5 | 28.1 |
| DaytonDec 6, 2025 · neutral | W 86–73 | 58 | 116.8 | 99.1 | 73.6 | 73.3 | 28.5 | 27.3 |
| TexasDec 4, 2025 · road | W 88–69 | 34 | 134.7 | 105.6 | 65.3 | 65.4 | 10.7 | 24.1 |
| QueensNov 28, 2025 · home | W 94–69 | 205 | 145.7 | 107.0 | 64.5 | 65.8 | 12.4 | 45.2 |
| ButlerNov 23, 2025 · neutral | L 73–80 | 82 | 105.9 | 116.0 | 69.0 | 46.5 | 13.1 | 38.3 |
| NorthwesternNov 21, 2025 · neutral | W 83–78 | 53 | 117.3 | 110.2 | 70.8 | 41.4 | 15.5 | 52.5 |
| MarshallNov 15, 2025 · home | W 104–78 | 172 | 137.3 | 103.0 | 75.8 | 61.9 | 11.9 | 35.1 |
| HamptonNov 12, 2025 · home | W 91–53 | 288 | 135.5 | 78.9 | 67.2 | 64.2 | 19.4 | 51.7 |
| NC CentralNov 8, 2025 · home | W 81–62 | 333 | 129.1 | 98.8 | 62.7 | 57.4 | 19.1 | 52.6 |
| RiderNov 4, 2025 · home | W 87–53 | 342 | 136.0 | 82.9 | 64.0 | 53.1 | 9.4 | 53.7 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin HallG | 36 | 28.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 54.9 | 12.0% | 36 | 3.2736 games | 10336 games |
| Thijs De RidderF | 36 | 27.7 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 59.1 | 27.2% | 36 | 0.8936 games | 11236 games |
| Sam LewisG | 36 | 25.6 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 58.2 | 20.7% | 36 | 1.0936 games | 15436 games |
| Chance MalloryG | 36 | 24.1 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 57.1 | 19.4% | 36 | 2.9536 games | 11336 games |
| Malik ThomasG | 36 | 22.7 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 54.2 | 28.7% | 36 | 1.0236 games | 19136 games |
| Johann GrunlohC | 36 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 58.9 | 16.3% | 36 | 0.8236 games | 6036 games |
| Ugonna OnyensoC | 36 | 18.7 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 61.6 | 15.5% | 36 | 1.3136 games | 3636 games |
| Jacari WhiteG | 31 | 17.9 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 64.1 | 23.5% | 31 | 1.1231 games | 15931 games |
| Devin TillisF | 31 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 53.4 | 14.9% | 31 | 1.8831 games | 6431 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Virginia?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →