A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
42.9% · rank 17 of 366 · 35 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Southern Miss
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.233
-5.0 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
19–162025–26 recorded finals
102.4Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
107.4Adjusted defense · lower is better
69.9Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Southern Miss.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
19–1635 recorded games · 35 paired efficiency samples · pace 69.9Mean opponent adj. net -2.5 · 33 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
49.6%35 games · higher is betterRank 289 / 366 · 21th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
50.2%35 games · lower is betterRank 136 / 366 · 63th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
18.4%35 games · lower is betterRank 297 / 366 · 19th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
17.7%35 games · higher is betterRank 130 / 366 · 65th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
32.6%35 games · higher is betterRank 126 / 366 · 66th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
28.5%35 games · lower is betterRank 106 / 366 · 71th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
42.9%35 games · higher is betterRank 17 / 366 · 96th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
42.6%35 games · lower is betterRank 344 / 366 · 6th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 106.1 | 35 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 104.9 | 35 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 51.6% | 35 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 49.7% | 35 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 30.0% | 35 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.9% | 35 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 29.8% | 35 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 39.3% | 35 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 73.3% | 35 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 71.0% | 35 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 44.6% | 35 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 47.2% | 35 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,473 source possession rows across 35 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
28.5% · rank 106 of 366 · 35 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
A closer look
Turnover rate
18.4% · rank 297 of 366 · 35 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
42.6% · rank 344 of 366 · 35 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 9 times in the selected window; Southern Miss won 4. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 8, 2026 · neutral vs Troy · L 70–78 · offense 98.2 / defense 109.4
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 35 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TroyMar 8, 2026 · neutral | L 70–78 | 123 | 98.2 | 109.4 | 71.3 | 42.0 | 16.8 | 42.2 |
| App StateMar 7, 2026 · neutral | W 86–73 | 151 | 125.4 | 106.5 | 68.6 | 52.3 | 14.6 | 44.7 |
| Texas StMar 6, 2026 · neutral | W 81–77 | 228 | 117.3 | 111.5 | 69.0 | 56.4 | 15.9 | 23.1 |
| James MadisonMar 5, 2026 · neutral | W 86–80 | 155 | 119.4 | 111.1 | 72.0 | 48.3 | 8.3 | 28.6 |
| South AlabamaFeb 28, 2026 · road | W 68–55 | 165 | 105.1 | 85.0 | 64.7 | 55.1 | 21.6 | 24.1 |
| Arkansas StFeb 25, 2026 · road | L 84–89 | 126 | 106.4 | 112.8 | 78.9 | 54.5 | 16.5 | 36.1 |
| Old DominionFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 86–81 | 254 | 106.1 | 100.0 | 81.0 | 60.0 | 32.1 | 46.7 |
| TroyFeb 15, 2026 · home | W 69–65 | 123 | 104.4 | 98.3 | 66.1 | 41.8 | 15.1 | 41.9 |
| South AlabamaFeb 13, 2026 · home | L 78–84 | 165 | 104.1 | 112.1 | 74.9 | 56.0 | 28.0 | 26.7 |
| Kent StateFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 66–65 | 133 | 101.6 | 100.0 | 65.0 | 41.2 | 16.9 | 38.5 |
| MarshallFeb 5, 2026 · road | L 77–81 | 172 | 116.1 | 122.1 | 66.4 | 50.0 | 21.1 | 46.2 |
| James MadisonJan 31, 2026 · home | W 73–65 | 155 | 109.4 | 97.4 | 66.8 | 48.9 | 16.5 | 25.0 |
| App StateJan 30, 2026 · home | L 63–70 | 151 | 94.6 | 105.2 | 66.6 | 38.8 | 18.0 | 35.7 |
| CoastalJan 24, 2026 · road | L 67–85 | 286 | 99.3 | 125.9 | 67.5 | 48.1 | 10.4 | 14.3 |
| Georgia StJan 23, 2026 · road | L 62–69 | 293 | 86.2 | 96.0 | 71.9 | 42.2 | 15.3 | 15.4 |
| Texas StJan 17, 2026 · road | L 67–74 | 228 | 93.7 | 103.5 | 71.5 | 45.2 | 19.6 | 15.6 |
| TroyJan 15, 2026 · road | L 65–91 | 123 | 92.4 | 129.4 | 70.3 | 46.5 | 25.6 | 35.3 |
| UL MonroeJan 10, 2026 · home | W 70–60 | 358 | 102.9 | 88.2 | 68.0 | 47.4 | 13.2 | 23.1 |
| Texas StJan 9, 2026 · home | W 80–70 | 228 | 104.0 | 91.0 | 68.4 | 51.7 | 19.5 | 25.7 |
| LouisianaJan 3, 2026 · road | W 74–67 | 297 | 108.9 | 98.6 | 67.9 | 54.4 | 25.0 | 34.8 |
| UL MonroeJan 1, 2026 · road | W 87–73 | 358 | 113.3 | 95.1 | 76.8 | 60.7 | 22.1 | 35.7 |
| LSUDec 30, 2025 · road | L 62–90 | 74 | 88.2 | 128.0 | 70.3 | 33.1 | 14.2 | 31.3 |
| Arkansas StDec 20, 2025 · home | L 86–93 | 126 | 119.9 | 129.6 | 71.8 | 54.5 | 15.3 | 27.6 |
| LouisianaDec 19, 2025 · home | W 62–54 | 297 | 91.4 | 79.6 | 67.9 | 37.5 | 11.8 | 17.5 |
| Ole MissDec 13, 2025 · neutral | L 67–71 | 54 | 100.1 | 106.1 | 66.9 | 50.0 | 20.9 | 27.3 |
| GramblingDec 9, 2025 · home | W 68–60 | 307 | 98.9 | 87.3 | 68.8 | 50.9 | 24.7 | 34.5 |
| MiamiDec 6, 2025 · road | L 64–88 | 57 | 86.8 | 119.4 | 73.7 | 46.4 | 27.1 | 36.4 |
| RadfordDec 4, 2025 · road | W 82–75 | 213 | 109.3 | 100.0 | 75.0 | 45.8 | 18.7 | 37.8 |
| UT MartinNov 23, 2025 · neutral | W 70–60 | 234 | 125.4 | 107.5 | 55.8 | 57.4 | 14.3 | 41.9 |
| North FloridaNov 23, 2025 · neutral | W 92–83 | 321 | 128.6 | 116.0 | 71.6 | 59.4 | 14.0 | 45.5 |
| William CareyNov 19, 2025 · home | W 82–59 | Unrated | 113.3 | 81.5 | 72.4 | 62.5 | 19.3 | 24.1 |
| GramblingNov 14, 2025 · road | L 70–75 | 307 | 100.4 | 107.6 | 69.7 | 41.3 | 15.8 | 43.9 |
| South CarolinaNov 9, 2025 · road | L 79–83 | 99 | 105.4 | 110.7 | 66.6 | 47.0 | 12.0 | 32.5 |
| TougalooNov 7, 2025 · home | W 93–57 | Unrated | 119.5 | 73.2 | 77.8 | 54.5 | 18.0 | 40.0 |
| BuffaloNov 3, 2025 · road | L 79–85 | 277 | 120.1 | 129.2 | 65.8 | 60.0 | 21.3 | 29.2 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylik WeeksF | 34 | 33.6 | 19.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 55.9 | 29.9% | 34 | 0.8834 games | 5434 games |
| Dylan BrumfieldG | 35 | 31.2 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 51.7 | 15.9% | 35 | 1.6135 games | 2435 games |
| Djahi BinetF | 35 | 26.4 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 65.8 | 18.7% | 35 | 0.6435 games | 1235 games |
| Curt LewisG | 35 | 23.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 52.7 | 12.3% | 35 | 1.2335 games | 14135 games |
| Israel HartG | 34 | 21.6 | 7.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 48.2 | 21.2% | 34 | 1.0234 games | 13834 games |
| Isaac TaverasG | 22 | 25.9 | 15.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 53.9 | 32.7% | 22 | 0.7022 games | 2922 games |
| Chiante' TrambleG | 34 | 12.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 53.1 | 16.6% | 34 | 1.2134 games | 6434 games |
| Tegra IzayC | 35 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 61.1 | 12.2% | 35 | 0.6335 games | 035 games |
| Brewer CarruthG | 27 | 12.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 46.2 | 13.6% | 27 | 0.7327 games | 3527 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Southern Miss?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
18Source-listed players
15Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 12 | 4,295 | 4,295 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 4 | 2,202 | 2,202 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 2 | 553 | 553 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (7,050 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
18 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylik Weeks →F | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 33.6 | 19.7 | 55.9% |
| Dylan Brumfield →G | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 31.2 | 8.4 | 51.7% |
| Djahi Binet →F | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 26.4 | 11.3 | 65.8% |
| Curt Lewis →G | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 23.2 | 5.4 | 52.7% |
| Israel Hart →G | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 21.6 | 7.7 | 48.2% |
| Isaac Taveras →G | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 25.9 | 15.3 | 53.9% |
| Chiante' Tramble →G | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 12.3 | 3.6 | 53.1% |
| Tegra Izay →C | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 11.1 | 2.8 | 61.1% |
| Brewer Carruth →G | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 12.3 | 2.7 | 46.2% |
| Fallou Diagne →C | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 6.8 | 1.9 | 47.0% |
| Dalyn Brandon →G | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 7.8 | 1.7 | 57.9% |
| Felipe Patino →G | Same programSouthern Miss Golden Eagles | 6.4 | 1.7 | 44.9% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Southern Miss vs Iowa State
58.8Southern Miss
85.5Iowa State
Iowa State win estimate95.6%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin26.7
Projected total144.4
80% home-margin range10.8 to 42.6
Estimated possessions69.8
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 2.9 pts
Iowa State attack 55.3% · Southern Miss defense 51.6%Southern Miss attack 49.2% · Iowa State defense 48.3%
Ball securityAway 2.4 pts
Iowa State attack 15.7% · Southern Miss defense 17.5%Southern Miss attack 18.3% · Iowa State defense 22.5%
Second chancesHome 1.5 pts
Iowa State attack 33.8% · Southern Miss defense 29.0%Southern Miss attack 30.0% · Iowa State defense 26.7%
Free-throw pressureAway 9.5 pts
Iowa State attack 36.3% · Southern Miss defense 38.8%Southern Miss attack 38.8% · Iowa State defense 31.7%
Hilton Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
James Madison vs Southern Miss
74.2James Madison
73.5Southern Miss
Southern Miss win estimate52.4%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-0.6
Projected total147.7
80% home-margin range-16.5 to 15.3
Estimated possessions69.1
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 2.1 pts
Southern Miss attack 49.2% · James Madison defense 50.4%James Madison attack 52.5% · Southern Miss defense 51.6%
Ball securityAway 3.3 pts
Southern Miss attack 18.3% · James Madison defense 15.8%James Madison attack 16.7% · Southern Miss defense 17.5%
Second chancesHome 0.1 pts
Southern Miss attack 30.0% · James Madison defense 28.6%James Madison attack 30.3% · Southern Miss defense 29.0%
Free-throw pressureHome 6.1 pts
Southern Miss attack 38.8% · James Madison defense 37.3%James Madison attack 34.2% · Southern Miss defense 38.8%
Reed Green Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Southern Miss vs Georgia St
73.1Southern Miss
73.5Georgia St
Georgia St win estimate55.2%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin0.4
Projected total146.6
80% home-margin range-15.5 to 16.4
Estimated possessions70.6
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 1.6 pts
Georgia St attack 47.9% · Southern Miss defense 51.6%Southern Miss attack 49.2% · Georgia St defense 51.3%
Ball securityHome 3.8 pts
Georgia St attack 16.6% · Southern Miss defense 17.5%Southern Miss attack 18.3% · Georgia St defense 15.5%
Second chancesHome 1.4 pts
Georgia St attack 28.9% · Southern Miss defense 29.0%Southern Miss attack 30.0% · Georgia St defense 31.5%
Free-throw pressureAway 10.0 pts
Georgia St attack 33.8% · Southern Miss defense 38.8%Southern Miss attack 38.8% · Georgia St defense 33.8%
GSU Convocation Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →