A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
24.4% · rank 7 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
S Dakota St
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.161
+0.6 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
14–182025–26 recorded finals
108.0Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
107.4Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.3Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on S Dakota St.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
14–1832 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 67.9Mean opponent adj. net -2.1 · 29 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.8%32 games · higher is betterRank 134 / 366 · 64th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
51.2%32 games · lower is betterRank 199 / 366 · 46th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.2%32 games · lower is betterRank 156 / 366 · 58th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
15.0%32 games · higher is betterRank 306 / 366 · 16th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
31.4%32 games · higher is betterRank 169 / 366 · 54th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
24.4%32 games · lower is betterRank 7 / 366 · 98th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
30.0%32 games · higher is betterRank 304 / 366 · 17th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
32.7%32 games · lower is betterRank 135 / 366 · 63th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 110.6 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 106.9 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 53.5% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.5% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.4% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.9% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 39.3% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 47.2% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 71.1% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 73.6% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 52.2% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 53.6% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,125 source possession rows across 31 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Effective FG%
52.8% · rank 134 of 366 · 32 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
30.0% · rank 304 of 366 · 32 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
A closer look
Turnovers forced
15.0% · rank 306 of 366 · 32 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 7 times in the selected window; S Dakota St won 1. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 6, 2026 · neutral vs St Thomas (MN) · L 67–80 · offense 104.3 / defense 124.5
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Thomas (MN)Mar 6, 2026 · neutral | L 67–80 | 118 | 104.3 | 124.5 | 64.3 | 42.9 | 18.7 | 43.2 |
| South DakotaFeb 28, 2026 · road | L 70–75 | 289 | 100.8 | 108.0 | 69.4 | 47.7 | 17.3 | 35.1 |
| Kansas CityFeb 27, 2026 · road | W 73–59 | 337 | 113.8 | 92.0 | 64.1 | 53.4 | 17.2 | 37.5 |
| North DakotaFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 91–83 | 283 | 138.3 | 126.2 | 65.8 | 59.3 | 12.2 | 42.4 |
| N Dakota StFeb 19, 2026 · home | L 66–74 | 128 | 100.8 | 113.0 | 65.5 | 51.8 | 15.3 | 19.4 |
| Oral RobertsFeb 15, 2026 · road | W 87–69 | 300 | 131.5 | 104.3 | 66.2 | 61.7 | 15.1 | 36.7 |
| DenverFeb 13, 2026 · road | L 61–79 | 268 | 96.2 | 124.5 | 63.4 | 40.0 | 7.9 | 22.5 |
| South DakotaFeb 7, 2026 · home | L 67–68 | 289 | 96.1 | 97.6 | 69.7 | 50.0 | 14.3 | 12.1 |
| St Thomas (MN)Feb 5, 2026 · home | L 62–77 | 118 | 99.3 | 123.4 | 62.4 | 49.0 | 14.4 | 21.2 |
| Oral RobertsJan 31, 2026 · home | W 95–72 | 300 | 129.7 | 98.3 | 73.3 | 65.7 | 13.6 | 30.3 |
| OmahaJan 29, 2026 · road | L 71–80 | 238 | 101.2 | 114.0 | 70.2 | 43.4 | 17.1 | 34.1 |
| St Thomas (MN)Jan 23, 2026 · road | L 69–74 | 118 | 98.9 | 106.0 | 69.8 | 52.5 | 18.6 | 27.0 |
| Kansas CityJan 17, 2026 · home | W 90–62 | 337 | 138.1 | 95.2 | 65.2 | 67.5 | 13.8 | 37.0 |
| N Dakota StJan 15, 2026 · road | L 65–76 | 128 | 100.5 | 117.5 | 64.7 | 51.8 | 17.0 | 21.9 |
| DenverJan 9, 2026 · home | W 87–79 | 268 | 125.2 | 113.7 | 69.5 | 54.8 | 12.9 | 41.2 |
| North DakotaJan 3, 2026 · road | L 87–90 | 283 | 124.8 | 129.1 | 62.0 | 57.5 | 18.6 | 38.2 |
| OmahaJan 1, 2026 · home | W 84–69 | 238 | 120.0 | 98.6 | 70.0 | 51.5 | 14.3 | 40.5 |
| ArizonaDec 30, 2025 · road | L 71–99 | 3 | 91.1 | 127.1 | 77.9 | 48.4 | 18.0 | 21.4 |
| MilwaukeeDec 19, 2025 · road | L 87–88 | 218 | 126.8 | 128.2 | 68.6 | 59.8 | 13.1 | 33.3 |
| WyomingDec 16, 2025 · neutral | L 72–87 | 132 | 107.5 | 129.9 | 67.0 | 49.1 | 10.5 | 19.4 |
| Dkta WesleyanDec 13, 2025 · home | W 94–62 | Unrated | 131.7 | 86.9 | 71.4 | 65.1 | 16.8 | 40.0 |
| Ball StateDec 10, 2025 · road | W 68–64 | 273 | 107.3 | 101.0 | 63.4 | 52.6 | 17.4 | 33.3 |
| IdahoDec 6, 2025 · home | L 81–84 | 214 | 117.9 | 122.2 | 68.7 | 51.8 | 7.3 | 20.6 |
| N ArizonaDec 4, 2025 · road | W 75–62 | 308 | 109.6 | 90.6 | 68.5 | 50.0 | 16.1 | 31.6 |
| UC IrvineNov 27, 2025 · neutral | L 52–64 | 95 | 70.1 | 86.3 | 74.2 | 35.0 | 20.2 | 20.9 |
| Utah ValleyNov 25, 2025 · neutral | L 52–75 | 100 | 74.4 | 107.3 | 69.9 | 37.0 | 30.0 | 34.2 |
| Georgia StNov 22, 2025 · home | W 105–58 | 293 | 146.6 | 81.0 | 71.6 | 73.3 | 14.0 | 33.3 |
| Peru StateNov 18, 2025 · home | W 94–46 | Unrated | 139.5 | 68.3 | 67.4 | 56.6 | 11.9 | 48.6 |
| OregonNov 13, 2025 · road | L 69–83 | 61 | 97.7 | 117.5 | 70.6 | 50.8 | 15.6 | 19.4 |
| Northern IowaNov 9, 2025 · road | L 58–65 | 87 | 91.2 | 102.2 | 63.6 | 48.0 | 26.7 | 40.0 |
| Dakota StNov 7, 2025 · home | W 68–62 | Unrated | 104.8 | 95.5 | 64.9 | 57.8 | 23.1 | 34.5 |
| MerrimackNov 4, 2025 · neutral | W 75–66 | 180 | 107.0 | 94.2 | 70.1 | 48.2 | 20.0 | 38.9 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe SaylerG | 32 | 32.5 | 14.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 55.8 | 23.1% | 32 | 1.3632 games | 16532 games |
| Jaden JacksonG | 32 | 32.1 | 12.2 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 50.3 | 21.4% | 32 | 1.9832 games | 21132 games |
| Kalen GarryG | 32 | 29.0 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 53.2 | 20.3% | 32 | 2.1332 games | 15832 games |
| Matthew MorsF | 32 | 27.7 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 60.0 | 14.8% | 32 | 1.2632 games | 7832 games |
| Damon WilkinsonC | 32 | 24.0 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 62.3 | 27.2% | 32 | 0.7532 games | 132 games |
| Alec SquiresC | 32 | 14.9 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 61.3 | 16.5% | 32 | 0.6932 games | 032 games |
| Luke HaertleG | 30 | 14.9 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 44.5 | 18.0% | 30 | 1.3030 games | 3930 games |
| Bubz AlvarezG | 21 | 14.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 50.5 | 18.1% | 21 | 1.2821 games | 2021 games |
| Caleb DelzellF | 28 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 44.4 | 10.8% | 28 | 1.8928 games | 2428 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around S Dakota St?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
14Source-listed players
13Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 9 | 4,046 | 4,046 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 3 | 1,134 | 1,134 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 2 | 1,245 | 1,245 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,425 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
14 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Sayler →G | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 32.5 | 14.5 | 55.8% |
| Jaden Jackson →G | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 32.1 | 12.2 | 50.3% |
| Kalen Garry →G | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 29.0 | 10.7 | 53.2% |
| Matthew Mors →F | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 27.7 | 8.4 | 60.0% |
| Damon Wilkinson →C | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 24.0 | 13.9 | 62.3% |
| Alec Squires →C | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 14.9 | 4.6 | 61.3% |
| Luke Haertle →G | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 14.9 | 3.8 | 44.5% |
| Bubz Alvarez →G | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 14.9 | 4.5 | 50.5% |
| Caleb Delzell →F | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 8.9 | 1.4 | 44.4% |
| Jaden Rogers →G | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 9.3 | 2.2 | 59.1% |
| Trey Buchanan →G | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 14.4 | 7.3 | 73.6% |
| Andrell Burton Jr. →G | Same programSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits | 3.2 | 1.8 | 64.5% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
S Dakota St vs Kansas St
70.8S Dakota St
80.3Kansas St
Kansas St win estimate76.8%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin9.5
Projected total151.1
80% home-margin range-6.5 to 25.4
Estimated possessions70.8
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 1.1 pts
Kansas St attack 53.1% · S Dakota St defense 51.2%S Dakota St attack 52.1% · Kansas St defense 49.1%
Ball securityAway 3.2 pts
Kansas St attack 17.7% · S Dakota St defense 15.3%S Dakota St attack 17.1% · Kansas St defense 17.9%
Second chancesHome 6.3 pts
Kansas St attack 30.8% · S Dakota St defense 25.6%S Dakota St attack 29.3% · Kansas St defense 30.4%
Free-throw pressureHome 3.6 pts
Kansas St attack 32.3% · S Dakota St defense 31.1%S Dakota St attack 31.2% · Kansas St defense 33.5%
Bramlage Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
S Dakota St vs Nevada
67.1S Dakota St
77.6Nevada
Nevada win estimate78.8%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin10.5
Projected total144.6
80% home-margin range-5.4 to 26.4
Estimated possessions66.7
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 1.4 pts
Nevada attack 52.1% · S Dakota St defense 51.2%S Dakota St attack 52.1% · Nevada defense 49.8%
Ball securityAway 0.3 pts
Nevada attack 15.2% · S Dakota St defense 15.3%S Dakota St attack 17.1% · Nevada defense 17.5%
Second chancesHome 1.8 pts
Nevada attack 29.8% · S Dakota St defense 25.6%S Dakota St attack 29.3% · Nevada defense 27.0%
Free-throw pressureHome 17.1 pts
Nevada attack 42.3% · S Dakota St defense 31.1%S Dakota St attack 31.2% · Nevada defense 37.1%
Lawlor Events Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
S Dakota St vs Kansas City
75.2S Dakota St
68.0Kansas City
Kansas City win estimate34.9%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin-7.2
Projected total143.2
80% home-margin range-23.1 to 8.7
Estimated possessions68.5
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 3.6 pts
Kansas City attack 47.0% · S Dakota St defense 51.2%S Dakota St attack 52.1% · Kansas City defense 52.7%
Ball securityAway 3.5 pts
Kansas City attack 18.6% · S Dakota St defense 15.3%S Dakota St attack 17.1% · Kansas City defense 17.2%
Second chancesHome 7.2 pts
Kansas City attack 30.2% · S Dakota St defense 25.6%S Dakota St attack 29.3% · Kansas City defense 32.0%
Free-throw pressureHome 4.9 pts
Kansas City attack 31.8% · S Dakota St defense 31.1%S Dakota St attack 31.2% · Kansas City defense 35.4%
Swinney Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →