A relative strength
Offensive rebound rate
38.6% · rank 4 of 366 · 33 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Robert Morris
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.166
+0.0 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
22–112025–26 recorded finals
107.2Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
107.1Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.1Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Robert Morris.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
22–1133 recorded games · 33 paired efficiency samples · pace 66.4Mean opponent adj. net -4.0 · 31 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
54.9%33 games · higher is betterRank 53 / 366 · 86th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
49.6%33 games · lower is betterRank 108 / 366 · 71th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
18.5%33 games · lower is betterRank 306 / 366 · 16th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
16.7%33 games · higher is betterRank 192 / 366 · 48th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
38.6%33 games · higher is betterRank 4 / 366 · 99th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
28.2%33 games · lower is betterRank 88 / 366 · 76th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
27.3%33 games · higher is betterRank 349 / 366 · 5th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
39.5%33 games · lower is betterRank 305 / 366 · 17th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 114.5 | 33 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 106.6 | 33 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 54.2% | 33 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 49.7% | 33 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 37.3% | 33 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.0% | 33 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 40.1% | 33 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 36.5% | 33 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 69.2% | 33 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 76.1% | 33 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 62.2% | 33 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 52.2% | 33 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,238 source possession rows across 33 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Effective FG%
54.9% · rank 53 of 366 · 33 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Turnover rate
18.5% · rank 306 of 366 · 33 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
27.3% · rank 349 of 366 · 33 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 11 times in the selected window; Robert Morris won 5. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 10, 2026 · neutral vs Detroit Mercy · L 64–70 · offense 101.5 / defense 111.1
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 33 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit MercyMar 10, 2026 · neutral | L 64–70 | 294 | 101.5 | 111.1 | 63.0 | 50.9 | 23.8 | 37.5 |
| Youngstown StMar 5, 2026 · home | W 68–53 | 176 | 109.0 | 84.9 | 62.4 | 57.7 | 24.0 | 38.7 |
| Cleveland StFeb 28, 2026 · home | W 83–64 | 267 | 129.8 | 100.1 | 63.9 | 63.4 | 18.8 | 39.3 |
| Detroit MercyFeb 26, 2026 · home | W 73–62 | 294 | 114.8 | 97.5 | 63.6 | 45.9 | 9.4 | 35.7 |
| Wright StFeb 22, 2026 · road | W 81–68 | 154 | 119.9 | 100.6 | 67.6 | 59.1 | 14.8 | 25.0 |
| OaklandFeb 15, 2026 · home | W 93–69 | 167 | 140.7 | 104.4 | 66.1 | 67.4 | 16.6 | 44.1 |
| Cleveland StFeb 13, 2026 · road | W 85–68 | 267 | 135.3 | 108.3 | 62.8 | 60.3 | 12.7 | 45.5 |
| Youngstown StFeb 7, 2026 · road | W 72–66 | 176 | 111.5 | 102.2 | 64.6 | 55.0 | 20.1 | 41.9 |
| Wright StFeb 5, 2026 · home | W 72–66 | 154 | 105.0 | 96.2 | 68.6 | 56.0 | 16.0 | 18.2 |
| Purdue FWJan 31, 2026 · road | L 71–83 | 210 | 101.6 | 118.8 | 69.9 | 54.9 | 22.9 | 34.4 |
| IU IndyJan 29, 2026 · home | W 74–58 | 339 | 124.2 | 97.3 | 59.6 | 58.8 | 20.1 | 46.7 |
| Green BayJan 24, 2026 · home | L 67–71 | 284 | 108.2 | 114.6 | 61.9 | 52.6 | 16.1 | 29.7 |
| MilwaukeeJan 23, 2026 · home | W 88–76 | 218 | 125.4 | 108.3 | 70.2 | 67.0 | 22.8 | 41.4 |
| N KentuckyJan 18, 2026 · road | W 92–89 | 183 | 109.3 | 105.8 | 74.8 | 54.6 | 19.0 | 34.2 |
| IU IndyJan 15, 2026 · road | L 93–96 | 339 | 118.1 | 121.9 | 70.0 | 61.0 | 22.9 | 37.0 |
| Purdue FWJan 11, 2026 · home | L 74–79 | 210 | 114.9 | 122.6 | 64.4 | 53.2 | 17.1 | 37.8 |
| OaklandJan 4, 2026 · road | L 73–96 | 167 | 106.8 | 140.5 | 68.3 | 50.0 | 14.6 | 32.4 |
| Detroit MercyJan 3, 2026 · road | W 85–77 | 294 | 124.5 | 112.8 | 68.3 | 51.8 | 19.0 | 48.4 |
| N KentuckyDec 30, 2025 · home | L 77–79 | 183 | 108.9 | 111.7 | 70.7 | 55.6 | 21.2 | 39.5 |
| Saint FrancisDec 20, 2025 · road | W 79–70 | 356 | 123.8 | 109.7 | 63.8 | 66.0 | 18.8 | 24.0 |
| Youngstown StDec 18, 2025 · home | W 80–77 | 176 | 119.0 | 114.6 | 59.7 | 48.5 | 14.9 | 50.0 |
| ToledoDec 13, 2025 · home | W 75–70 | 148 | 109.1 | 101.8 | 68.8 | 49.1 | 13.1 | 35.9 |
| MilwaukeeDec 7, 2025 · road | L 72–74 | 218 | 101.2 | 104.0 | 71.2 | 45.1 | 14.1 | 25.7 |
| Green BayDec 5, 2025 · road | W 80–78 | 284 | 118.3 | 115.3 | 67.6 | 54.8 | 16.3 | 41.2 |
| StetsonNov 30, 2025 · home | W 80–62 | 326 | 131.0 | 101.5 | 61.1 | 66.1 | 11.5 | 35.7 |
| Southern UtahNov 28, 2025 · home | W 61–54 | 285 | 94.4 | 83.5 | 64.7 | 44.4 | 15.5 | 33.3 |
| UICNov 26, 2025 · home | W 88–74 | 138 | 130.1 | 109.4 | 67.6 | 60.5 | 20.7 | 48.5 |
| MonmouthNov 23, 2025 · road | L 70–71 | 211 | 101.8 | 103.3 | 61.1 | 47.2 | 17.5 | 41.9 |
| St BonaventureNov 20, 2025 · road | L 61–75 | 125 | 88.9 | 109.3 | 68.6 | 40.2 | 21.9 | 32.5 |
| Pitt-GreensbrgNov 14, 2025 · home | W 81–57 | Unrated | 114.0 | 80.2 | 71.1 | 50.7 | 22.5 | 57.9 |
| GenevaNov 11, 2025 · home | W 93–47 | Unrated | 133.4 | 67.4 | 69.7 | 57.4 | 14.3 | 48.7 |
| DrakeNov 7, 2025 · road | W 81–79 | 109 | 108.7 | 106.0 | 66.2 | 53.7 | 22.8 | 38.9 |
| IowaNov 5, 2025 · road | L 69–101 | 28 | 100.5 | 147.1 | 68.7 | 59.4 | 33.5 | 44.8 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Prather Jr.G | 33 | 34.0 | 15.7 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 57.4 | 21.6% | 33 | 4.4433 games | 22833 games |
| DeSean GoodeF | 33 | 31.0 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 1.4 | 70.6 | 20.0% | 33 | 0.9833 games | 6333 games |
| Nikolaos ChitikoudisF | 32 | 26.1 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 53.0 | 23.2% | 32 | 1.3832 games | 232 games |
| Darius LivingstonG | 27 | 25.8 | 9.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 52.9 | 22.8% | 27 | 1.1727 games | 15927 games |
| Albert VargasG | 28 | 24.1 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 53.7 | 18.7% | 28 | 2.0428 games | 9028 games |
| Kaleb BrownG | 32 | 19.7 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 51.6 | 13.6% | 32 | 1.7132 games | 7032 games |
| Ta'Zir SmithG | 31 | 19.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 51.5 | 19.5% | 31 | 1.3231 games | 8531 games |
| Josh HillF | 22 | 16.9 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 52.0 | 25.6% | 22 | 0.2722 games | 6222 games |
| Cam WildsG | 24 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 60.5 | 15.1% | 24 | 0.8224 games | 2924 games |
| Samuel ObenjoF | 23 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 55.7 | 11.1% | 23 | 1.4423 games | 023 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Robert Morris?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
16Source-listed players
14Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 4,063 | 4,063 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 5 | 2,557 | 2,557 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 1 | 105 | 105 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,725 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
16 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Prather Jr. →G | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 34.0 | 15.7 | 57.4% |
| DeSean Goode →F | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 31.0 | 15.2 | 70.6% |
| Nikolaos Chitikoudis →F | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 26.1 | 11.3 | 53.0% |
| Darius Livingston →G | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 25.8 | 9.6 | 52.9% |
| Albert Vargas →G | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 24.1 | 7.5 | 53.7% |
| Kaleb Brown →G | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 19.7 | 4.1 | 51.6% |
| Ta'Zir Smith →G | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 19.2 | 6.5 | 51.5% |
| Josh Hill →F | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 16.9 | 7.5 | 52.0% |
| Cam Wilds →G | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 13.1 | 4.0 | 60.5% |
| Samuel Obenjo →F | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 9.0 | 1.7 | 55.7% |
| Eddie Cooke III →F | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 8.6 | 2.6 | 61.9% |
| Ubong Okon →C | Same programRobert Morris Colonials | 6.2 | 0.8 | 70.4% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Robert Morris vs Nevada
65.3Robert Morris
76.0Nevada
Nevada win estimate79.1%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin10.7
Projected total141.3
80% home-margin range-5.2 to 26.6
Estimated possessions65.5
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 0.4 pts
Nevada attack 52.1% · Robert Morris defense 51.2%Robert Morris attack 51.2% · Nevada defense 49.8%
Ball securityHome 2.9 pts
Nevada attack 15.2% · Robert Morris defense 17.2%Robert Morris attack 18.4% · Nevada defense 17.5%
Second chancesAway 5.6 pts
Nevada attack 29.8% · Robert Morris defense 28.9%Robert Morris attack 33.4% · Nevada defense 27.0%
Free-throw pressureHome 10.4 pts
Nevada attack 42.3% · Robert Morris defense 37.1%Robert Morris attack 31.9% · Nevada defense 37.1%
Lawlor Events Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →