A relative strength
Turnover rate
14.9% · rank 62 of 366 · 34 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
California
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.104
+6.6 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
22–122025–26 recorded finals
110.4Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
103.8Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.5Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on California.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
22–1234 recorded games · 34 paired efficiency samples · pace 69.4Mean opponent adj. net 5.9 · 33 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.4%34 games · higher is betterRank 153 / 366 · 58th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
50.0%34 games · lower is betterRank 129 / 366 · 65th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
14.9%34 games · lower is betterRank 62 / 366 · 83th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
16.4%34 games · higher is betterRank 211 / 366 · 42th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
26.5%34 games · higher is betterRank 332 / 366 · 9th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
30.3%34 games · lower is betterRank 201 / 366 · 45th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
36.4%34 games · higher is betterRank 142 / 366 · 61th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
36.1%34 games · lower is betterRank 233 / 366 · 36th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 111.8 | 34 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 104.8 | 34 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 50.5% | 34 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 52.1% | 34 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 36.7% | 34 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 31.3% | 34 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 42.9% | 34 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 40.9% | 34 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 78.0% | 34 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 65.8% | 34 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 53.2% | 34 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 56.6% | 34 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,391 source possession rows across 34 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent effective FG%
50.0% · rank 129 of 366 · 34 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
36.1% · rank 233 of 366 · 34 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
26.5% · rank 332 of 366 · 34 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 8 times in the selected window; California won 4. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 23, 2026 · home vs Saint Joseph's · L 75–76 · offense 110.4 / defense 111.9
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 34 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph'sMar 23, 2026 · home | L 75–76 | 108 | 110.4 | 111.9 | 67.9 | 50.7 | 11.8 | 29.3 |
| UICMar 19, 2026 · home | W 91–73 | 138 | 127.9 | 102.6 | 71.2 | 69.3 | 22.5 | 28.0 |
| Florida StMar 11, 2026 · neutral | L 89–95 | 81 | 127.7 | 136.3 | 69.7 | 59.8 | 17.2 | 42.9 |
| Wake ForestMar 7, 2026 · road | L 73–80 | 60 | 100.1 | 109.6 | 73.0 | 42.4 | 9.6 | 17.1 |
| Georgia TechMar 5, 2026 · road | W 76–65 | 137 | 101.1 | 86.5 | 75.2 | 47.7 | 12.0 | 20.5 |
| PittFeb 28, 2026 · home | L 56–72 | 71 | 83.6 | 107.5 | 67.0 | 47.2 | 23.9 | 21.9 |
| SMUFeb 26, 2026 · home | W 73–69 | 51 | 104.7 | 98.9 | 69.7 | 46.9 | 11.5 | 22.5 |
| StanfordFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 72–66 | 77 | 103.8 | 95.2 | 69.4 | 42.1 | 14.4 | 36.6 |
| Boston CollegeFeb 14, 2026 · road | W 86–75 | 152 | 133.1 | 116.1 | 64.6 | 68.5 | 12.4 | 20.0 |
| SyracuseFeb 12, 2026 · road | L 100–107 | 102 | 110.6 | 118.3 | 72.3 | 52.6 | 17.7 | 31.8 |
| ClemsonFeb 8, 2026 · home | L 55–77 | 26 | 85.2 | 119.2 | 64.6 | 43.8 | 21.7 | 13.8 |
| Georgia TechFeb 5, 2026 · home | W 90–85 | 137 | 116.8 | 110.3 | 77.1 | 57.4 | 18.2 | 22.2 |
| MiamiJan 31, 2026 · road | W 86–85 | 57 | 127.5 | 126.0 | 67.4 | 58.5 | 10.4 | 21.9 |
| Florida StJan 29, 2026 · road | L 61–63 | 81 | 89.6 | 92.6 | 68.1 | 43.1 | 16.2 | 21.1 |
| StanfordJan 25, 2026 · road | W 78–66 | 77 | 109.4 | 92.6 | 71.3 | 50.0 | 14.0 | 25.0 |
| North CarolinaJan 17, 2026 · home | W 84–78 | 22 | 119.2 | 110.7 | 70.4 | 62.1 | 18.5 | 25.0 |
| DukeJan 15, 2026 · home | L 56–71 | 1 | 86.7 | 109.9 | 64.6 | 41.3 | 17.0 | 17.6 |
| Virginia TechJan 10, 2026 · road | L 75–78 | 79 | 112.2 | 116.7 | 66.9 | 50.0 | 19.4 | 41.4 |
| VirginiaJan 8, 2026 · road | L 60–84 | 35 | 88.0 | 123.2 | 68.2 | 38.0 | 13.2 | 15.8 |
| Notre DameJan 3, 2026 · home | W 72–71 | 114 | 114.2 | 112.7 | 63.0 | 49.2 | 4.8 | 22.0 |
| LouisvilleDec 31, 2025 · home | L 70–90 | 32 | 98.3 | 126.3 | 71.2 | 41.5 | 11.2 | 18.6 |
| ColumbiaDec 21, 2025 · home | W 74–56 | 217 | 110.4 | 83.5 | 67.1 | 48.2 | 8.9 | 23.5 |
| Morgan StDec 20, 2025 · home | W 97–50 | 351 | 139.6 | 72.0 | 69.5 | 69.4 | 13.0 | 21.7 |
| N'Western StDec 13, 2025 · home | W 79–70 | 296 | 117.8 | 104.4 | 67.1 | 56.4 | 17.9 | 31.3 |
| Dominican (CA)Dec 10, 2025 · home | W 93–71 | Unrated | 127.9 | 97.7 | 72.7 | 46.5 | 6.9 | 38.6 |
| PacificDec 6, 2025 · home | W 67–61 | 207 | 110.1 | 100.3 | 60.8 | 54.0 | 14.8 | 27.3 |
| UtahDec 3, 2025 · home | W 79–72 | 93 | 115.8 | 105.6 | 68.2 | 51.8 | 14.7 | 26.7 |
| UCLANov 26, 2025 · neutral | W 80–72 | 27 | 113.2 | 101.9 | 70.7 | 54.3 | 11.3 | 20.6 |
| Sacramento StNov 22, 2025 · home | W 91–67 | 314 | 121.1 | 89.2 | 75.1 | 62.3 | 16.0 | 28.6 |
| PresbyterianNov 19, 2025 · home | W 67–57 | 257 | 116.2 | 98.9 | 57.7 | 56.9 | 19.1 | 37.9 |
| Kansas StNov 14, 2025 · road | L 96–99 | 83 | 122.6 | 126.4 | 78.3 | 68.5 | 21.7 | 32.1 |
| FullertonNov 11, 2025 · home | W 93–65 | 255 | 120.4 | 84.2 | 77.2 | 49.3 | 10.4 | 28.6 |
| Wright StNov 7, 2025 · home | W 77–67 | 154 | 110.6 | 96.2 | 69.6 | 46.4 | 14.4 | 29.4 |
| BakersfieldNov 4, 2025 · home | W 87–60 | 311 | 119.1 | 82.1 | 73.1 | 58.5 | 19.2 | 40.0 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dai Dai AmesG | 34 | 31.9 | 16.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 56.8 | 26.6% | 34 | 1.2734 games | 14934 games |
| John CamdenF | 33 | 31.5 | 13.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 61.0 | 19.8% | 33 | 1.5933 games | 22033 games |
| Justin PippenG | 32 | 30.8 | 14.2 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 52.1 | 26.4% | 32 | 1.8832 games | 16532 games |
| Chris BellF | 34 | 27.8 | 14.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 62.2 | 23.1% | 34 | 0.5134 games | 19034 games |
| Lee DortF | 27 | 23.1 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 0.9 | 61.6 | 16.6% | 27 | 0.8827 games | 027 games |
| Milos IlicC | 34 | 17.3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 60.8 | 11.8% | 34 | 1.3534 games | 734 games |
| Semetri CarrG | 32 | 16.5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 49.2 | 14.0% | 32 | 3.6332 games | 3532 games |
| DeJuan CampbellG | 23 | 15.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 43.3 | 14.6% | 23 | 1.3823 games | 3023 games |
| Nolan DorseyG | 31 | 10.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 50.6 | 10.6% | 31 | 1.1031 games | 4131 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around California?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →