A relative strength
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
24.3% · rank 6 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Oakland
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.167
-0.5 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
16–162025–26 recorded finals
110.2Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
110.7Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.6Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Oakland.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
16–1632 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 71.4Mean opponent adj. net 0.7 · 31 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
53.3%32 games · higher is betterRank 107 / 366 · 71th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
54.2%32 games · lower is betterRank 331 / 366 · 10th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
14.7%32 games · lower is betterRank 51 / 366 · 86th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
15.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 254 / 366 · 31th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
31.6%32 games · higher is betterRank 161 / 366 · 56th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
34.1%32 games · lower is betterRank 333 / 366 · 9th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
38.0%32 games · higher is betterRank 95 / 366 · 74th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
24.3%32 games · lower is betterRank 6 / 366 · 99th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 115.7 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 114.5 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 53.8% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 56.6% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.8% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.0% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 33.9% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 41.6% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 75.0% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 72.4% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 54.4% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 65.7% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,281 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnover rate
14.7% · rank 51 of 366 · 32 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Opponent effective FG%
54.2% · rank 331 of 366 · 32 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Opponent offensive rebound rate
34.1% · rank 333 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 7 times in the selected window; Oakland won 3. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 5, 2026 · home vs N Kentucky · L 84–85 · offense 115.1 / defense 116.5
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N KentuckyMar 5, 2026 · home | L 84–85 | 183 | 115.1 | 116.5 | 73.0 | 50.7 | 12.3 | 34.1 |
| Detroit MercyFeb 28, 2026 · home | L 89–95 | 294 | 123.4 | 131.7 | 72.1 | 63.2 | 18.0 | 28.6 |
| IU IndyFeb 25, 2026 · road | W 86–74 | 339 | 118.5 | 101.9 | 72.6 | 58.1 | 12.4 | 32.1 |
| MilwaukeeFeb 22, 2026 · home | W 81–70 | 218 | 123.9 | 107.1 | 65.4 | 60.7 | 13.8 | 27.3 |
| Green BayFeb 21, 2026 · home | L 68–73 | 284 | 107.8 | 115.7 | 63.1 | 41.1 | 17.4 | 44.7 |
| Robert MorrisFeb 15, 2026 · road | L 69–93 | 166 | 104.4 | 140.7 | 66.1 | 43.8 | 15.1 | 32.4 |
| Youngstown StFeb 13, 2026 · home | L 82–86 | 176 | 117.4 | 123.1 | 69.8 | 62.1 | 18.6 | 24.1 |
| Cleveland StFeb 5, 2026 · road | L 78–91 | 267 | 109.5 | 127.7 | 71.3 | 52.6 | 18.2 | 30.3 |
| N KentuckyFeb 1, 2026 · home | W 76–65 | 183 | 99.6 | 85.2 | 76.3 | 46.1 | 18.4 | 33.3 |
| Purdue FWJan 29, 2026 · road | W 74–65 | 210 | 106.6 | 93.6 | 69.4 | 50.8 | 14.4 | 30.6 |
| Detroit MercyJan 24, 2026 · road | W 95–87 | 294 | 137.5 | 126.0 | 69.1 | 59.8 | 7.2 | 34.5 |
| IU IndyJan 22, 2026 · home | L 85–103 | 339 | 119.2 | 144.4 | 71.3 | 55.0 | 14.0 | 34.2 |
| Green BayJan 18, 2026 · road | W 88–63 | 284 | 137.5 | 98.4 | 64.0 | 59.0 | 14.1 | 52.9 |
| MilwaukeeJan 16, 2026 · road | W 73–60 | 218 | 98.0 | 80.6 | 74.5 | 45.8 | 21.5 | 30.6 |
| Wright StJan 11, 2026 · home | L 84–94 | 154 | 114.8 | 128.5 | 73.2 | 52.6 | 8.2 | 18.9 |
| Cleveland StJan 10, 2026 · home | W 97–74 | 267 | 129.7 | 98.9 | 74.8 | 48.7 | 16.0 | 53.3 |
| Robert MorrisJan 4, 2026 · home | W 96–73 | 166 | 140.5 | 106.8 | 68.3 | 56.3 | 8.8 | 37.0 |
| Youngstown StJan 1, 2026 · road | W 85–83 | 176 | 129.1 | 126.1 | 65.8 | 63.8 | 13.7 | 28.0 |
| Wright StDec 30, 2025 · road | L 73–88 | 154 | 103.0 | 124.2 | 70.9 | 42.5 | 18.3 | 37.5 |
| Michigan StDec 20, 2025 · neutral | L 70–79 | 13 | 102.9 | 116.1 | 68.1 | 51.8 | 17.6 | 18.2 |
| N KentuckyDec 18, 2025 · road | W 82–77 | 183 | 112.7 | 105.9 | 72.7 | 50.8 | 13.7 | 32.4 |
| Northern IowaDec 13, 2025 · road | L 63–75 | 87 | 86.4 | 102.8 | 72.9 | 44.0 | 23.3 | 23.1 |
| ToledoDec 6, 2025 · home | W 98–97 | 148 | 125.5 | 124.2 | 78.1 | 60.0 | 6.4 | 20.6 |
| Purdue FWDec 4, 2025 · home | W 101–92 | 210 | 131.3 | 119.6 | 77.0 | 62.9 | 14.3 | 31.4 |
| MontanaNov 26, 2025 · road | W 95–87 | 178 | 122.4 | 112.1 | 77.6 | 54.5 | 12.9 | 35.1 |
| LamarNov 24, 2025 · neutral | W 83–68 | 232 | 117.1 | 95.9 | 70.9 | 54.5 | 15.5 | 32.4 |
| E MichiganNov 21, 2025 · road | L 91–97 | 274 | 122.5 | 130.5 | 74.3 | 57.5 | 10.8 | 27.0 |
| UCFNov 18, 2025 · road | L 83–87 | 56 | 114.3 | 119.8 | 72.6 | 50.0 | 13.8 | 27.8 |
| DefianceNov 15, 2025 · home | W 113–47 | Unrated | 142.9 | 59.4 | 79.1 | 68.6 | 13.9 | 41.4 |
| HoustonNov 13, 2025 · road | L 45–78 | 2 | 72.6 | 125.9 | 62.0 | 34.3 | 21.0 | 26.3 |
| PurdueNov 8, 2025 · road | L 77–87 | 9 | 110.1 | 124.4 | 69.9 | 50.0 | 12.9 | 31.6 |
| MichiganNov 4, 2025 · road | L 78–121 | 6 | 100.5 | 155.8 | 77.7 | 50.8 | 14.2 | 12.8 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody RobinsonG | 32 | 35.8 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 60.5 | 23.1% | 32 | 2.6932 games | 20432 games |
| Tuburu NaivaluruaF | 32 | 31.9 | 14.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 57.5 | 20.5% | 32 | 1.7732 games | 5332 games |
| Ziare WellsG | 32 | 26.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 55.4 | 18.3% | 32 | 1.5032 games | 6132 games |
| Isaac GarrettF | 28 | 28.9 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 59.5 | 22.4% | 28 | 1.2528 games | 2428 games |
| Brett White IIG | 32 | 24.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 57.1 | 16.9% | 32 | 1.6732 games | 20032 games |
| Michael HougeF | 27 | 26.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 57.1 | 23.0% | 27 | 0.4527 games | 1827 games |
| Khoi ThurmonG | 32 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 40.0 | 16.4% | 32 | 1.5432 games | 1532 games |
| Warren Marshall IVG | 29 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 57.8 | 13.3% | 29 | 0.5829 games | 3029 games |
| Nassim MashhourG | 10 | 27.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 56.6 | 15.8% | 10 | 1.6310 games | 5310 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Oakland?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
14Source-listed players
11Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 3,804 | 3,804 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 4 | 2,596 | 2,596 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,400 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
14 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Robinson →G | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 35.8 | 17.6 | 60.5% |
| Tuburu Naivalurua →F | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 31.9 | 14.2 | 57.5% |
| Ziare Wells →G | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 26.8 | 9.9 | 55.4% |
| Isaac Garrett →F | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 28.9 | 13.7 | 59.5% |
| Brett White II →G | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 24.0 | 9.1 | 57.1% |
| Michael Houge →F | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 26.6 | 12.6 | 57.1% |
| Khoi Thurmon →G | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 11.8 | 2.5 | 40.0% |
| Warren Marshall IV →G | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 12.4 | 3.5 | 57.8% |
| Nassim Mashhour →G | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 27.2 | 9.3 | 56.6% |
| Nate Deer →F | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 5.1 | 1.2 | 50.5% |
| MJ Yeager →G | Same programOakland Golden Grizzlies | 3.1 | 0.9 | 50.0% |
| Donny Yeager →G | No prior appearance observedNo prior program listed | — | — | — |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Oakland vs Alabama
74.2Oakland
97.3Alabama
Alabama win estimate93.6%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin23.1
Projected total171.4
80% home-margin range7.2 to 39.0
Estimated possessions73.9
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 0.3 pts
Alabama attack 57.1% · Oakland defense 52.5%Oakland attack 51.0% · Alabama defense 46.7%
Ball securityHome 1.9 pts
Alabama attack 15.2% · Oakland defense 16.4%Oakland attack 15.8% · Alabama defense 15.1%
Second chancesAway 0.3 pts
Alabama attack 34.0% · Oakland defense 31.7%Oakland attack 30.6% · Alabama defense 27.9%
Free-throw pressureHome 8.3 pts
Alabama attack 38.1% · Oakland defense 27.9%Oakland attack 34.9% · Alabama defense 33.0%
Coleman Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →