A relative strength
Opponent effective FG%
46.9% · rank 26 of 366 · 36 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Northern Iowa
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.87
+8.6 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
23–132025–26 recorded finals
108.9Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
100.3Adjusted defense · lower is better
65.1Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Northern Iowa.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
23–1336 recorded games · 36 paired efficiency samples · pace 63.6Mean opponent adj. net 3.0 · 35 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
54.4%36 games · higher is betterRank 68 / 366 · 82th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
46.9%36 games · lower is betterRank 26 / 366 · 93th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
14.4%36 games · lower is betterRank 41 / 366 · 89th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
18.4%36 games · higher is betterRank 88 / 366 · 76th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
21.9%36 games · higher is betterRank 360 / 366 · 2th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
26.3%36 games · lower is betterRank 35 / 366 · 91th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
25.4%36 games · higher is betterRank 361 / 366 · 1th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
29.0%36 games · lower is betterRank 55 / 366 · 85th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 108.4 | 36 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 96.4 | 36 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 55.4% | 36 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 49.6% | 36 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 35.2% | 36 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 28.7% | 36 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 39.5% | 36 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 41.9% | 36 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 69.4% | 36 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 71.7% | 36 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 56.9% | 36 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 49.3% | 36 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,319 source possession rows across 36 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
26.3% · rank 35 of 366 · 36 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
21.9% · rank 360 of 366 · 36 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
25.4% · rank 361 of 366 · 36 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; Northern Iowa won 3. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 20, 2026 · neutral vs St John's · L 53–79 · offense 84.0 / defense 125.2
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 36 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St John'sMar 20, 2026 · neutral | L 53–79 | 14 | 84.0 | 125.2 | 63.1 | 41.2 | 9.5 | 15.4 |
| UICMar 8, 2026 · neutral | W 84–69 | 138 | 141.8 | 116.5 | 59.2 | 75.5 | 18.6 | 41.2 |
| BradleyMar 7, 2026 · neutral | W 73–69 | 98 | 115.3 | 108.9 | 63.3 | 72.7 | 22.1 | 6.7 |
| Illinois StMar 7, 2026 · neutral | W 74–52 | 112 | 118.9 | 83.5 | 62.3 | 61.1 | 19.3 | 30.8 |
| EvansvilleMar 6, 2026 · neutral | W 68–59 | 302 | 108.3 | 94.0 | 62.8 | 43.3 | 6.4 | 30.8 |
| DrakeMar 1, 2026 · road | W 75–53 | 109 | 119.1 | 84.2 | 63.0 | 55.9 | 9.5 | 21.9 |
| Illinois StFeb 26, 2026 · home | L 69–71 | 112 | 111.1 | 114.3 | 62.1 | 59.4 | 12.9 | 13.8 |
| S IllinoisFeb 21, 2026 · home | L 57–59 | 124 | 92.9 | 96.2 | 61.4 | 48.1 | 22.8 | 31.0 |
| Indiana StFeb 19, 2026 · road | W 81–60 | 140 | 124.6 | 92.3 | 65.0 | 68.1 | 10.8 | 10.7 |
| DrakeFeb 15, 2026 · home | W 86–62 | 109 | 131.0 | 94.5 | 65.6 | 64.9 | 10.7 | 18.5 |
| BelmontFeb 13, 2026 · road | L 86–91 | 86 | 121.2 | 128.2 | 71.0 | 57.3 | 14.1 | 17.9 |
| Murray StFeb 10, 2026 · road | W 89–60 | 130 | 136.2 | 91.8 | 65.4 | 65.9 | 9.2 | 34.6 |
| BradleyFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 61–49 | 98 | 102.3 | 82.1 | 59.7 | 48.1 | 15.1 | 29.0 |
| EvansvilleJan 31, 2026 · home | W 71–55 | 302 | 122.2 | 94.6 | 58.1 | 64.2 | 18.9 | 28.0 |
| S IllinoisJan 29, 2026 · road | L 50–65 | 124 | 76.2 | 99.1 | 65.6 | 44.7 | 25.9 | 9.7 |
| Murray StJan 24, 2026 · home | W 81–76 | 130 | 122.3 | 114.7 | 66.2 | 63.9 | 12.1 | 22.2 |
| Illinois StJan 22, 2026 · road | L 54–59 | 112 | 83.6 | 91.3 | 64.6 | 37.7 | 13.9 | 17.9 |
| ValparaisoJan 17, 2026 · road | L 44–54 | 191 | 74.7 | 91.7 | 58.9 | 36.8 | 13.6 | 23.8 |
| UICJan 14, 2026 · home | L 61–69 | 138 | 97.5 | 110.3 | 62.6 | 42.0 | 17.6 | 33.3 |
| BradleyJan 10, 2026 · road | L 69–75 | 98 | 103.1 | 112.1 | 66.9 | 49.2 | 7.5 | 15.8 |
| BelmontJan 8, 2026 · home | L 65–78 | 86 | 111.2 | 133.5 | 58.4 | 49.2 | 5.1 | 21.6 |
| EvansvilleJan 4, 2026 · road | W 62–48 | 302 | 97.3 | 75.4 | 63.7 | 57.3 | 25.1 | 20.7 |
| Indiana StJan 2, 2026 · home | W 75–66 | 140 | 116.3 | 102.3 | 64.5 | 57.0 | 14.0 | 33.3 |
| ValparaisoDec 30, 2025 · home | W 58–48 | 191 | 100.7 | 83.3 | 57.6 | 51.2 | 17.4 | 15.4 |
| Saint Mary'sDec 23, 2025 · road | L 58–63 | 18 | 93.8 | 101.8 | 61.9 | 50.0 | 12.9 | 9.7 |
| UICDec 17, 2025 · road | W 60–54 | 138 | 98.0 | 88.2 | 61.2 | 53.1 | 24.5 | 28.6 |
| OaklandDec 13, 2025 · home | W 75–63 | 167 | 102.8 | 86.4 | 72.9 | 50.9 | 11.0 | 21.6 |
| Wichita StDec 7, 2025 · home | L 69–74 | 92 | 97.5 | 104.6 | 62.9 | 46.7 | 11.3 | 21.6 |
| CoeDec 2, 2025 · home | W 99–34 | Unrated | 138.4 | 47.5 | 71.5 | 73.0 | 14.0 | 25.0 |
| TulsaNov 26, 2025 · neutral | L 60–63 | 116 | 95.3 | 100.1 | 62.9 | 46.5 | 14.3 | 19.4 |
| Loyola ChicagoNov 25, 2025 · neutral | W 72–51 | 202 | 116.8 | 82.8 | 61.6 | 56.4 | 4.9 | 11.8 |
| UC IrvineNov 23, 2025 · road | W 70–69 | 95 | 97.8 | 96.4 | 63.6 | 43.8 | 11.2 | 24.5 |
| N IllinoisNov 19, 2025 · home | W 70–57 | 344 | 112.9 | 91.9 | 62.0 | 61.4 | 24.2 | 30.8 |
| FurmanNov 15, 2025 · home | W 70–54 | 146 | 109.1 | 84.2 | 64.2 | 51.9 | 10.9 | 21.9 |
| S Dakota StNov 9, 2025 · home | W 65–58 | 161 | 102.2 | 91.2 | 63.6 | 55.1 | 17.3 | 15.6 |
| CSU NorthridgeNov 7, 2025 · home | W 86–57 | 171 | 119.7 | 79.3 | 71.8 | 61.9 | 13.9 | 18.2 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey CampbellG | 36 | 33.5 | 13.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 55.2 | 24.6% | 36 | 1.8636 games | 19736 games |
| Leon Bond IIIF | 36 | 32.8 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 56.1 | 20.3% | 36 | 1.3636 games | 12736 games |
| Ben SchwiegerF | 36 | 27.8 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 56.9 | 19.8% | 36 | 1.6836 games | 9436 games |
| Will HornsethF | 35 | 26.3 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 60.1 | 23.2% | 35 | 1.5335 games | 935 games |
| Max WeisbrodG | 32 | 27.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 57.6 | 13.2% | 32 | 2.1832 games | 14932 games |
| Tristan SmithF | 28 | 21.2 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 58.3 | 23.9% | 28 | 1.6928 games | 1128 games |
| Kyle PockF | 34 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 54.1 | 15.8% | 34 | 1.4034 games | 8434 games |
| Ismael DioufF | 35 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 50.9 | 20.0% | 35 | 1.3035 games | 4735 games |
| RJ TaylorG | 30 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 56.6 | 13.6% | 30 | 3.4030 games | 3230 games |
| Geon HutchinsG | 35 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 45.9 | 14.5% | 35 | 0.7335 games | 2635 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Northern Iowa?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
16Source-listed players
11Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
83%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 7 | 1,501 | 1,501 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 9 | 4,543 | 4,543 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,044 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
16 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Bond III →F | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 32.8 | 11.9 | 56.1% |
| Ben Schwieger →F | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 27.8 | 9.7 | 56.9% |
| Will Hornseth →F | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 26.3 | 11.1 | 60.1% |
| Max Weisbrod →G | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 27.8 | 6.4 | 57.6% |
| Tristan Smith →F | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 21.2 | 9.1 | 58.3% |
| Kyle Pock →F | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 12.7 | 3.7 | 54.1% |
| Ismael Diouf →F | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 10.5 | 3.0 | 50.9% |
| RJ Taylor →G | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 11.0 | 2.6 | 56.6% |
| Geon Hutchins →G | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 7.5 | 1.5 | 45.9% |
| Chase Courbat →F | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 3.6 | 1.1 | 73.7% |
| Hunter Jacobson →G | Same programNorthern Iowa Panthers | 1.6 | 0.3 | 25.0% |
| Cade Courbat →G | No prior appearance observedNo prior program listed | — | — | — |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Northern Iowa vs Kansas
60.8Northern Iowa
72.8Kansas
Kansas win estimate81.3%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin12.0
Projected total133.6
80% home-margin range-4.0 to 27.9
Estimated possessions65.7
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 4.1 pts
Kansas attack 53.9% · Northern Iowa defense 49.6%Northern Iowa attack 53.8% · Kansas defense 45.2%
Ball securityHome 1.2 pts
Kansas attack 15.7% · Northern Iowa defense 17.5%Northern Iowa attack 15.6% · Kansas defense 16.3%
Second chancesHome 6.3 pts
Kansas attack 30.4% · Northern Iowa defense 26.1%Northern Iowa attack 24.4% · Kansas defense 26.3%
Free-throw pressureAway 1.1 pts
Kansas attack 32.2% · Northern Iowa defense 30.2%Northern Iowa attack 32.3% · Kansas defense 29.2%
Allen Fieldhouse
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →