A relative strength
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
30.6% · rank 87 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
North Florida
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.321
-12.4 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
7–252025–26 recorded finals
106.2Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
118.6Adjusted defense · lower is better
71.0Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on North Florida.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
7–2532 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 72.5Mean opponent adj. net -2.4 · 30 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
53.6%32 games · higher is betterRank 95 / 366 · 74th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
55.7%32 games · lower is betterRank 353 / 366 · 4th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
17.2%32 games · lower is betterRank 224 / 366 · 39th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
13.8%32 games · higher is betterRank 345 / 366 · 6th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
26.8%32 games · higher is betterRank 320 / 366 · 13th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
37.1%32 games · lower is betterRank 362 / 366 · 1th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
28.8%32 games · higher is betterRank 331 / 366 · 10th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
30.6%32 games · lower is betterRank 87 / 366 · 76th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 109.4 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 121.1 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 54.6% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 57.8% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 35.1% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 35.0% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 51.1% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 39.1% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 77.4% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 70.4% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 50.6% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 51.6% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,337 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Effective FG%
53.6% · rank 95 of 366 · 32 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Opponent effective FG%
55.7% · rank 353 of 366 · 32 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Opponent offensive rebound rate
37.1% · rank 362 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 5 times in the selected window; North Florida won 2. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 5, 2026 · neutral vs West Georgia · L 85–93 · offense 113.1 / defense 123.7
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West GeorgiaMar 5, 2026 · neutral | L 85–93 | 325 | 113.1 | 123.7 | 75.2 | 47.8 | 6.7 | 17.1 |
| JacksonvilleFeb 28, 2026 · home | L 61–85 | 287 | 88.3 | 123.1 | 69.1 | 41.1 | 15.9 | 18.9 |
| FGCUFeb 27, 2026 · home | W 76–70 | 219 | 109.8 | 101.2 | 69.2 | 47.4 | 15.9 | 28.6 |
| StetsonFeb 21, 2026 · road | L 71–76 | 326 | 111.1 | 118.9 | 63.9 | 54.4 | 15.6 | 32.4 |
| Austin PeayFeb 20, 2026 · home | L 76–77 | 216 | 97.5 | 98.7 | 78.0 | 45.5 | 19.2 | 27.3 |
| JacksonvilleFeb 14, 2026 · road | L 56–63 | 287 | 96.1 | 108.2 | 58.3 | 52.0 | 22.3 | 33.3 |
| FGCUFeb 12, 2026 · road | L 81–90 | 219 | 111.2 | 123.6 | 72.8 | 50.8 | 15.1 | 30.8 |
| QueensFeb 7, 2026 · road | L 72–91 | 205 | 104.3 | 131.9 | 69.0 | 51.9 | 20.3 | 23.5 |
| West GeorgiaFeb 6, 2026 · road | W 81–73 | 325 | 109.0 | 98.2 | 74.3 | 57.6 | 21.5 | 26.5 |
| LipscombJan 31, 2026 · home | L 94–100 | 144 | 129.0 | 137.2 | 72.9 | 60.8 | 17.8 | 37.1 |
| StetsonJan 30, 2026 · home | L 77–84 | 326 | 111.1 | 121.2 | 69.3 | 52.5 | 15.9 | 28.1 |
| BellarmineJan 24, 2026 · home | W 117–114 | 317 | 147.7 | 143.9 | 70.4 | 77.0 | 11.4 | 26.1 |
| E KentuckyJan 23, 2026 · home | W 87–85 | 256 | 122.4 | 119.5 | 71.1 | 58.7 | 16.9 | 37.5 |
| C ArkansasJan 17, 2026 · road | L 69–98 | 259 | 97.8 | 138.9 | 70.6 | 51.8 | 19.8 | 18.9 |
| North AlabamaJan 16, 2026 · road | W 105–91 | 290 | 149.4 | 129.5 | 70.3 | 65.9 | 10.0 | 37.5 |
| QueensJan 10, 2026 · home | L 82–89 | 205 | 113.0 | 122.7 | 72.6 | 53.7 | 12.4 | 22.9 |
| West GeorgiaJan 9, 2026 · home | L 73–85 | 325 | 102.3 | 119.1 | 71.4 | 51.6 | 18.2 | 29.4 |
| LipscombJan 3, 2026 · road | L 74–82 | 144 | 104.7 | 116.0 | 70.7 | 50.0 | 18.4 | 30.2 |
| Austin PeayJan 2, 2026 · road | L 83–102 | 216 | 106.6 | 131.0 | 77.9 | 52.6 | 19.3 | 20.0 |
| ColumbiaDec 28, 2025 · home | L 82–90 | 217 | 114.1 | 125.3 | 71.8 | 54.6 | 11.1 | 16.7 |
| MiamiDec 21, 2025 · road | L 67–105 | 57 | 89.1 | 139.7 | 75.2 | 47.3 | 26.6 | 22.2 |
| Charleston SoDec 18, 2025 · road | L 90–113 | 278 | 112.2 | 140.9 | 80.2 | 53.0 | 11.2 | 16.2 |
| DaytonDec 14, 2025 · road | L 61–84 | 58 | 88.6 | 122.0 | 68.8 | 40.3 | 21.8 | 34.1 |
| GonzagaDec 8, 2025 · road | L 58–109 | 8 | 75.0 | 140.9 | 77.4 | 41.7 | 23.3 | 16.7 |
| SIUEDec 3, 2025 · home | L 63–72 | 231 | 96.7 | 110.5 | 65.2 | 49.1 | 18.4 | 24.2 |
| Trinity Co JaxNov 29, 2025 · home | W 111–67 | Unrated | 143.8 | 86.8 | 77.2 | 61.1 | 10.4 | 47.1 |
| Prairie ViewNov 23, 2025 · neutral | L 82–85 | 336 | 112.2 | 116.3 | 73.1 | 67.3 | 28.7 | 37.5 |
| Southern MissNov 23, 2025 · neutral | L 83–92 | 233 | 116.0 | 128.6 | 71.6 | 73.5 | 25.2 | 9.1 |
| WoffordNov 20, 2025 · road | L 78–86 | 197 | 107.1 | 118.1 | 72.8 | 57.1 | 15.1 | 11.8 |
| New CollegeNov 15, 2025 · home | W 122–67 | Unrated | 145.4 | 79.8 | 83.9 | 61.0 | 7.2 | 47.8 |
| TennesseeNov 13, 2025 · road | L 66–99 | 11 | 86.8 | 130.2 | 76.1 | 46.2 | 22.4 | 27.3 |
| FloridaNov 7, 2025 · road | L 64–104 | 4 | 80.1 | 130.2 | 79.9 | 36.9 | 20.0 | 16.7 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamrin OriolG | 32 | 35.7 | 20.9 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 62.5 | 27.3% | 32 | 1.3532 games | 24432 games |
| Kent JacksonG | 32 | 31.9 | 14.8 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 53.9 | 24.0% | 32 | 1.1532 games | 30532 games |
| BJ PlummerF | 32 | 26.9 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 52.8 | 15.3% | 32 | 1.0032 games | 12832 games |
| Mason LeeF | 32 | 26.1 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 65.7 | 14.8% | 32 | 1.0932 games | 8832 games |
| Dalton GaymanF | 32 | 23.6 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 57.5 | 21.8% | 32 | 0.9832 games | 6332 games |
| Nestor DyachokF | 32 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 53.6 | 15.0% | 32 | 1.6032 games | 2532 games |
| Devin HinesG | 27 | 17.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 49.4 | 18.5% | 27 | 0.9227 games | 4527 games |
| Dante OliverG | 31 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 53.5 | 9.8% | 31 | 1.8631 games | 3631 games |
| Trey CadyF | 29 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 54.1 | 25.6% | 29 | 0.4329 games | 5629 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around North Florida?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
14Source-listed players
12Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 8 | 3,145 | 3,145 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 6 | 3,280 | 3,280 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,425 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
14 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamrin Oriol →G | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 35.7 | 20.9 | 62.5% |
| Kent Jackson →G | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 31.9 | 14.8 | 53.9% |
| BJ Plummer →F | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 26.9 | 7.7 | 52.8% |
| Mason Lee →F | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 26.1 | 8.0 | 65.7% |
| Dalton Gayman →F | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 23.6 | 10.3 | 57.5% |
| Nestor Dyachok →F | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 15.2 | 4.3 | 53.6% |
| Devin Hines →G | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 17.1 | 5.5 | 49.4% |
| Dante Oliver →G | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 12.8 | 2.5 | 53.5% |
| Trey Cady →F | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 11.9 | 6.1 | 54.1% |
| Taylor Thompson →G | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 3.9 | 0.6 | 41.6% |
| Gabe Jacobs →G | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 4.6 | 1.8 | 59.4% |
| Alex Vargo →G | Same programNorth Florida Ospreys | 8.0 | 0.0 | — |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Charleston So vs North Florida
81.3Charleston So
81.9North Florida
North Florida win estimate55.5%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin0.5
Projected total163.2
80% home-margin range-15.4 to 16.5
Estimated possessions73.0
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 5.4 pts
North Florida attack 52.3% · Charleston So defense 50.5%Charleston So attack 50.5% · North Florida defense 54.1%
Ball securityHome 0.8 pts
North Florida attack 17.1% · Charleston So defense 13.9%Charleston So attack 18.4% · North Florida defense 14.4%
Second chancesHome 1.8 pts
North Florida attack 26.2% · Charleston So defense 29.1%Charleston So attack 29.3% · North Florida defense 34.0%
Free-throw pressureAway 9.1 pts
North Florida attack 29.0% · Charleston So defense 36.2%Charleston So attack 34.3% · North Florida defense 32.4%
UNF Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
North Florida vs Georgia
71.3North Florida
95.9Georgia
Georgia win estimate94.5%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin24.6
Projected total167.2
80% home-margin range8.6 to 40.5
Estimated possessions73.4
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 4.3 pts
Georgia attack 53.4% · North Florida defense 54.1%North Florida attack 52.3% · Georgia defense 48.7%
Ball securityAway 3.0 pts
Georgia attack 16.5% · North Florida defense 14.4%North Florida attack 17.1% · Georgia defense 18.0%
Second chancesHome 3.6 pts
Georgia attack 33.3% · North Florida defense 34.0%North Florida attack 26.2% · Georgia defense 30.5%
Free-throw pressureHome 6.5 pts
Georgia attack 37.9% · North Florida defense 32.4%North Florida attack 29.0% · Georgia defense 30.0%
Stegeman Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Bellarmine vs North Florida
81.2Bellarmine
84.3North Florida
North Florida win estimate62.3%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin3.1
Projected total165.5
80% home-margin range-12.8 to 19.0
Estimated possessions69.1
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 4.4 pts
North Florida attack 52.3% · Bellarmine defense 56.8%Bellarmine attack 54.0% · North Florida defense 54.1%
Ball securityHome 1.0 pts
North Florida attack 17.1% · Bellarmine defense 15.9%Bellarmine attack 16.6% · North Florida defense 14.4%
Second chancesHome 6.3 pts
North Florida attack 26.2% · Bellarmine defense 31.7%Bellarmine attack 22.2% · North Florida defense 34.0%
Free-throw pressureAway 5.8 pts
North Florida attack 29.0% · Bellarmine defense 35.8%Bellarmine attack 31.4% · North Florida defense 32.4%
UNF Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →