A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
42.4% · rank 21 of 366 · 32 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Norfolk St
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.252
-6.9 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
15–172025–26 recorded finals
104.3Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
111.1Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.1Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Norfolk St.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
15–1732 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 70.1Mean opponent adj. net -10.7 · 29 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
51.5%32 games · higher is betterRank 200 / 366 · 45th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
51.1%32 games · lower is betterRank 191 / 366 · 48th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
17.6%32 games · lower is betterRank 249 / 366 · 32th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
19.4%32 games · higher is betterRank 49 / 366 · 87th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
33.8%32 games · higher is betterRank 87 / 366 · 76th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
30.4%32 games · lower is betterRank 209 / 366 · 43th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
42.4%32 games · higher is betterRank 21 / 366 · 95th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
43.6%32 games · lower is betterRank 347 / 366 · 5th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 108.9 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 105.2 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 51.9% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 52.8% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 33.6% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 32.5% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 30.2% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 42.5% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 69.3% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 72.2% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 44.6% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 57.9% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,253 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnovers forced
19.4% · rank 49 of 366 · 32 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
A closer look
Turnover rate
17.6% · rank 249 of 366 · 32 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
43.6% · rank 347 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; Norfolk St won 4. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 12, 2026 · neutral vs SC State · L 82–88 · offense 108.6 / defense 116.6
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC StateMar 12, 2026 · neutral | L 82–88 | 343 | 108.6 | 116.6 | 75.5 | 49.2 | 23.8 | 42.9 |
| HowardMar 6, 2026 · home | L 76–84 | 223 | 109.8 | 121.4 | 69.2 | 49.2 | 11.6 | 29.4 |
| Morgan StMar 2, 2026 · road | L 84–90 | 351 | 111.4 | 119.4 | 75.4 | 42.4 | 9.3 | 40.7 |
| Coppin StFeb 28, 2026 · road | W 75–69 | 364 | 113.6 | 104.5 | 66.0 | 51.0 | 13.6 | 27.3 |
| SC StateFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 90–71 | 343 | 126.1 | 99.5 | 71.4 | 68.5 | 18.2 | 28.0 |
| MD EasternFeb 17, 2026 · road | W 70–66 | 361 | 118.5 | 111.7 | 59.1 | 62.0 | 18.6 | 39.1 |
| Delaware StFeb 14, 2026 · home | W 75–58 | 359 | 119.1 | 92.1 | 63.0 | 59.0 | 19.1 | 38.7 |
| NC CentralFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 75–68 | 333 | 104.5 | 94.8 | 71.7 | 54.0 | 27.9 | 39.3 |
| HowardJan 31, 2026 · road | L 60–88 | 223 | 85.6 | 125.5 | 70.1 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 23.7 |
| Morgan StJan 27, 2026 · home | L 78–79 | 351 | 102.5 | 103.8 | 76.1 | 44.3 | 11.8 | 34.0 |
| Coppin StJan 24, 2026 · home | W 103–76 | 364 | 128.4 | 94.7 | 80.2 | 71.4 | 23.7 | 34.6 |
| Elizabeth CityJan 20, 2026 · home | W 86–61 | Unrated | 122.5 | 86.9 | 70.2 | 57.9 | 12.8 | 32.1 |
| SC StateJan 17, 2026 · road | W 89–82 | 343 | 123.8 | 114.1 | 71.9 | 60.5 | 20.9 | 38.1 |
| MD EasternJan 13, 2026 · home | L 70–74 | 361 | 110.0 | 116.3 | 63.6 | 49.0 | 14.1 | 34.5 |
| Delaware StJan 10, 2026 · road | W 66–64 | 359 | 93.5 | 90.7 | 70.6 | 55.3 | 28.3 | 24.0 |
| NC CentralJan 3, 2026 · road | L 67–69 | 333 | 99.7 | 102.7 | 67.2 | 43.5 | 17.9 | 40.5 |
| LouisianaDec 28, 2025 · road | L 54–63 | 297 | 91.7 | 107.0 | 58.9 | 39.8 | 17.0 | 29.7 |
| UC IrvineDec 23, 2025 · neutral | L 70–89 | 95 | 102.9 | 130.9 | 68.0 | 52.9 | 22.1 | 23.3 |
| UTEPDec 22, 2025 · road | W 72–71 | 230 | 103.5 | 102.1 | 69.5 | 52.0 | 21.6 | 30.3 |
| Jackson StDec 20, 2025 · neutral | W 82–72 | 345 | 112.3 | 98.6 | 73.0 | 53.4 | 19.2 | 32.4 |
| GramblingDec 19, 2025 · neutral | L 68–80 | 307 | 91.7 | 107.9 | 74.2 | 43.2 | 17.5 | 34.0 |
| BaylorDec 10, 2025 · road | L 67–97 | 33 | 88.0 | 127.4 | 76.2 | 40.8 | 15.8 | 23.7 |
| James MadisonDec 6, 2025 · road | L 67–68 | 155 | 103.5 | 105.0 | 64.8 | 56.7 | 23.2 | 31.3 |
| ArizonaNov 29, 2025 · road | L 61–98 | 3 | 80.7 | 129.7 | 75.6 | 46.1 | 18.5 | 20.0 |
| VA LynchburgNov 26, 2025 · home | W 136–79 | 366 | 169.3 | 98.3 | 80.3 | 72.6 | 5.0 | 55.6 |
| WyomingNov 23, 2025 · road | L 67–75 | 132 | 100.4 | 112.4 | 66.8 | 45.1 | 18.0 | 30.6 |
| HamptonNov 22, 2025 · home | W 62–60 | 288 | 100.3 | 97.1 | 61.8 | 49.0 | 14.6 | 27.8 |
| TowsonNov 15, 2025 · road | L 41–51 | 150 | 69.0 | 85.9 | 59.4 | 29.2 | 10.1 | 33.3 |
| Old DominionNov 12, 2025 · road | L 57–60 | 254 | 95.6 | 100.7 | 59.6 | 41.1 | 20.1 | 41.7 |
| William & MaryNov 8, 2025 · home | L 78–81 | 195 | 101.4 | 105.3 | 76.9 | 52.6 | 24.7 | 32.6 |
| RegentNov 6, 2025 · home | W 119–55 | Unrated | 149.5 | 69.1 | 79.6 | 63.6 | 8.8 | 51.4 |
| Wash AdventistNov 4, 2025 · home | W 98–76 | Unrated | 124.2 | 96.3 | 78.9 | 55.6 | 15.2 | 37.5 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony McComb IIIG | 32 | 34.2 | 17.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 56.1 | 24.4% | 32 | 0.8232 games | 16832 games |
| Elijah JamisonG | 32 | 27.4 | 14.6 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 54.0 | 28.2% | 32 | 1.3432 games | 9632 games |
| Devon EllisF | 32 | 27.3 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 61.2 | 18.6% | 32 | 1.2232 games | 5432 games |
| Jordan LeaksG | 32 | 23.5 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 43.0 | 15.6% | 32 | 1.3532 games | 11132 games |
| Keyontae LewisF | 31 | 17.8 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 57.6 | 16.1% | 31 | 0.5231 games | 031 games |
| My'kel JenkinsG | 27 | 18.9 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 47.5 | 18.0% | 27 | 0.9627 games | 6127 games |
| Jaquel MorrisF | 32 | 13.7 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 67.9 | 14.8% | 32 | 0.2332 games | 032 games |
| Adrean NewtonG | 27 | 15.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 52.8 | 16.8% | 27 | 1.3327 games | 2327 games |
| Dian Wright-FordeG | 31 | 13.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 51.2 | 21.7% | 31 | 1.2031 games | 2931 games |
| Melo BainesF | 29 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 69.3 | 16.7% | 29 | 0.1329 games | 129 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Norfolk St?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
15Source-listed players
14Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 9 | 4,091 | 4,091 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 6 | 2,309 | 2,309 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,400 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
15 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony McComb III →G | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 34.2 | 17.1 | 56.1% |
| Elijah Jamison →G | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 27.4 | 14.6 | 54.0% |
| Devon Ellis →F | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 27.3 | 11.1 | 61.2% |
| Jordan Leaks →G | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 23.5 | 5.4 | 43.0% |
| Keyontae Lewis →F | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 17.8 | 5.6 | 57.6% |
| My'kel Jenkins →G | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 18.9 | 5.7 | 47.5% |
| Jaquel Morris →F | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 13.7 | 4.6 | 67.9% |
| Adrean Newton →G | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 15.4 | 4.0 | 52.8% |
| Dian Wright-Forde →G | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 13.3 | 5.0 | 51.2% |
| Melo Baines →F | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 10.8 | 4.4 | 69.3% |
| Yel Deeng →F | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 6.5 | 0.9 | 33.4% |
| Mekhi Reid →F | Same programNorfolk State Spartans | 4.5 | 2.0 | 62.9% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Norfolk St vs Tennessee
57.7Norfolk St
83.0Tennessee
Tennessee win estimate95.0%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin25.4
Projected total140.7
80% home-margin range9.4 to 41.3
Estimated possessions66.4
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 4.6 pts
Tennessee attack 53.3% · Norfolk St defense 52.5%Norfolk St attack 50.4% · Tennessee defense 45.1%
Ball securityHome 0.6 pts
Tennessee attack 16.5% · Norfolk St defense 18.0%Norfolk St attack 17.4% · Tennessee defense 18.2%
Second chancesHome 4.0 pts
Tennessee attack 38.9% · Norfolk St defense 31.1%Norfolk St attack 30.3% · Tennessee defense 26.5%
Free-throw pressureAway 8.6 pts
Tennessee attack 36.6% · Norfolk St defense 39.9%Norfolk St attack 38.4% · Tennessee defense 33.1%
Food City Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →