A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
44.8% · rank 5 of 366 · 37 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Nevada
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.59
+11.5 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
24–132025–26 recorded finals
113.5Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
102.1Adjusted defense · lower is better
66.7Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Nevada.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
24–1337 recorded games · 37 paired efficiency samples · pace 66.8Mean opponent adj. net 5.8 · 37 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
50.0%37 games · higher is betterRank 270 / 366 · 26th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
51.1%37 games · lower is betterRank 195 / 366 · 47th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
14.8%37 games · lower is betterRank 56 / 366 · 85th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
17.0%37 games · higher is betterRank 163 / 366 · 56th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
32.2%37 games · higher is betterRank 138 / 366 · 62th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
26.9%37 games · lower is betterRank 46 / 366 · 88th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
44.8%37 games · higher is betterRank 5 / 366 · 99th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
38.9%37 games · lower is betterRank 296 / 366 · 19th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 112.4 | 37 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 105.7 | 37 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 48.2% | 37 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.5% | 37 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 35.8% | 37 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.7% | 37 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 32.3% | 37 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 42.3% | 37 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 75.7% | 37 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 70.9% | 37 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 57.6% | 37 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 54.7% | 37 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,530 source possession rows across 37 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
26.9% · rank 46 of 366 · 37 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
A closer look
Effective FG%
50.0% · rank 270 of 366 · 37 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
38.9% · rank 296 of 366 · 37 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; Nevada won 6. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 26, 2026 · road vs Auburn · L 69–75 · offense 107.2 / defense 116.5
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 37 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AuburnMar 26, 2026 · road | L 69–75 | 15 | 107.2 | 116.5 | 64.4 | 52.8 | 18.6 | 31.0 |
| LibertyMar 22, 2026 · home | W 73–63 | 96 | 117.6 | 101.5 | 62.1 | 50.0 | 16.1 | 41.4 |
| Murray StMar 19, 2026 · home | W 89–75 | 130 | 123.2 | 103.8 | 72.2 | 55.5 | 6.9 | 30.6 |
| Utah StateMar 14, 2026 · neutral | L 66–79 | 30 | 90.3 | 108.1 | 73.1 | 44.9 | 20.5 | 23.7 |
| Grand CanyonMar 12, 2026 · neutral | W 84–80 | 65 | 119.3 | 113.6 | 70.4 | 53.3 | 15.6 | 26.9 |
| Air ForceMar 11, 2026 · neutral | W 80–45 | 347 | 112.3 | 63.2 | 71.2 | 50.0 | 18.2 | 35.3 |
| Air ForceMar 8, 2026 · home | W 74–59 | 347 | 114.2 | 91.1 | 64.8 | 51.8 | 15.4 | 36.7 |
| WyomingMar 4, 2026 · road | L 73–83 | 132 | 110.1 | 125.2 | 66.3 | 50.0 | 9.0 | 22.2 |
| UNLVMar 1, 2026 · road | L 83–85 | 111 | 110.0 | 112.7 | 67.1 | 49.1 | 17.2 | 31.6 |
| New MexicoFeb 25, 2026 · home | W 67–60 | 40 | 94.7 | 84.9 | 70.7 | 44.0 | 18.4 | 30.6 |
| Utah StateFeb 22, 2026 · home | W 80–77 | 30 | 118.7 | 114.2 | 67.4 | 61.2 | 22.2 | 37.9 |
| San José StFeb 18, 2026 · road | L 71–87 | 226 | 99.8 | 122.3 | 71.1 | 42.7 | 21.1 | 33.3 |
| San Diego StFeb 15, 2026 · road | L 57–71 | 43 | 90.9 | 113.2 | 62.7 | 38.5 | 22.3 | 40.5 |
| Fresno StFeb 8, 2026 · home | W 69–59 | 188 | 109.1 | 93.3 | 63.2 | 43.9 | 11.1 | 33.3 |
| Boise StFeb 4, 2026 · road | L 87–91 | 50 | 117.1 | 122.4 | 66.1 | 56.9 | 10.8 | 20.6 |
| UNLVJan 31, 2026 · home | W 89–76 | 111 | 132.9 | 113.5 | 67.0 | 66.0 | 10.5 | 19.2 |
| Grand CanyonJan 28, 2026 · home | W 66–60 | 65 | 91.4 | 83.1 | 64.2 | 38.3 | 12.5 | 27.1 |
| New MexicoJan 25, 2026 · road | L 73–80 | 40 | 103.7 | 113.6 | 70.4 | 46.7 | 17.0 | 32.4 |
| San José StJan 21, 2026 · home | W 87–54 | 226 | 141.4 | 87.8 | 61.5 | 61.4 | 8.1 | 35.5 |
| Air ForceJan 17, 2026 · road | W 81–66 | 347 | 118.4 | 96.5 | 68.4 | 60.8 | 21.9 | 32.0 |
| Utah StateJan 15, 2026 · road | L 62–71 | 30 | 94.3 | 108.0 | 65.7 | 40.2 | 21.3 | 37.2 |
| WyomingJan 11, 2026 · home | W 92–83 | 132 | 149.4 | 134.8 | 61.6 | 70.6 | 13.0 | 40.9 |
| San Diego StJan 7, 2026 · home | L 68–73 | 43 | 105.8 | 113.6 | 64.3 | 42.4 | 14.0 | 33.3 |
| Fresno StJan 4, 2026 · road | W 66–65 | 188 | 101.7 | 100.2 | 64.9 | 48.2 | 15.4 | 25.7 |
| Colorado StDec 31, 2025 · road | W 75–62 | 67 | 118.6 | 98.0 | 63.3 | 50.0 | 12.6 | 32.4 |
| Boise StDec 21, 2025 · home | W 81–66 | 50 | 129.7 | 105.7 | 62.4 | 60.0 | 11.2 | 20.8 |
| DuquesneDec 14, 2025 · home | W 78–75 | 129 | 115.8 | 111.4 | 67.4 | 48.2 | 11.9 | 33.3 |
| Washington StDec 7, 2025 · road | W 78–64 | 117 | 123.4 | 101.2 | 63.2 | 50.0 | 9.5 | 37.8 |
| UC San DiegoDec 3, 2025 · home | W 76–70 | 97 | 118.1 | 108.8 | 64.3 | 52.5 | 12.4 | 39.5 |
| San FranciscoNov 28, 2025 · neutral | W 81–65 | 89 | 126.1 | 101.2 | 64.2 | 53.2 | 6.2 | 33.3 |
| WashingtonNov 27, 2025 · neutral | L 66–83 | 66 | 92.3 | 116.1 | 71.5 | 42.4 | 12.6 | 22.5 |
| Santa BarbaraNov 22, 2025 · home | W 77–64 | 143 | 113.1 | 94.0 | 68.1 | 53.1 | 19.1 | 25.9 |
| UC DavisNov 19, 2025 · home | L 71–75 | 193 | 95.6 | 100.9 | 74.3 | 47.2 | 22.9 | 27.3 |
| Santa ClaraNov 16, 2025 · road | L 83–98 | 42 | 117.8 | 139.1 | 70.4 | 50.9 | 17.0 | 36.4 |
| S IllinoisNov 13, 2025 · home | W 86–81 | 124 | 109.2 | 102.9 | 70.0 | 39.7 | 5.1 | 31.6 |
| PacificNov 9, 2025 · home | W 78–77 | 207 | 115.9 | 114.4 | 67.3 | 46.6 | 13.4 | 40.0 |
| Louisiana TechNov 5, 2025 · home | W 77–50 | 156 | 122.8 | 79.8 | 62.7 | 50.0 | 16.0 | 48.6 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah PriceF | 37 | 30.0 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 56.5 | 22.7% | 37 | 0.6037 games | 3137 games |
| Corey Camper Jr.G | 33 | 32.3 | 16.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 57.4 | 25.0% | 33 | 2.1533 games | 17333 games |
| Tayshawn ComerG | 37 | 25.2 | 11.0 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 50.3 | 26.3% | 37 | 1.8237 games | 11437 games |
| Vaughn WeemsG | 34 | 25.0 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 63.9 | 18.8% | 34 | 0.7434 games | 6834 games |
| Kaleb LoweryF | 36 | 18.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 59.4 | 12.3% | 36 | 1.9436 games | 6236 games |
| Chuck Bailey IIIG | 33 | 18.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 48.7 | 19.9% | 33 | 2.1333 games | 7133 games |
| Tyler RolisonG | 34 | 17.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 48.3 | 19.7% | 34 | 2.6534 games | 4134 games |
| Peyton WhiteG | 36 | 13.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 53.3 | 17.3% | 36 | 0.9336 games | 5236 games |
| Joel ArmotradingC | 21 | 16.9 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 59.1 | 15.7% | 21 | 0.5821 games | 021 games |
| Amire RobinsonG | 36 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 57.8 | 13.6% | 36 | 2.0036 games | 4836 games |
| Myles WalkerG | 32 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 49.0 | 11.8% | 32 | 3.4632 games | 1832 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Nevada?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
13Source-listed players
13Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
86%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 7 | 4,049 | 4,049 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 4 | 1,863 | 1,863 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 2 | 522 | 522 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,434 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
13 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Price →F | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 30.0 | 12.8 | 56.5% |
| Tayshawn Comer →G | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 25.2 | 11.0 | 50.3% |
| Vaughn Weems →G | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 25.0 | 10.1 | 63.9% |
| Kaleb Lowery →F | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 18.3 | 4.6 | 59.4% |
| Chuck Bailey III →G | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 18.0 | 6.3 | 48.7% |
| Tyler Rolison →G | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 17.2 | 5.5 | 48.3% |
| Peyton White →G | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 13.9 | 4.6 | 53.3% |
| Joel Armotrading →C | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 16.9 | 5.2 | 59.1% |
| Amire Robinson →G | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 9.4 | 2.7 | 57.8% |
| Myles Walker →G | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 7.7 | 1.3 | 49.0% |
| Jeriah Coleman →C | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 5.8 | 1.1 | 65.5% |
| Ethan Croley →F | Same programNevada Wolf Pack | 5.3 | 1.9 | 55.2% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Robert Morris vs Nevada
65.3Robert Morris
76.0Nevada
Nevada win estimate79.1%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin10.7
Projected total141.3
80% home-margin range-5.2 to 26.6
Estimated possessions65.5
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 0.4 pts
Nevada attack 52.1% · Robert Morris defense 51.2%Robert Morris attack 51.2% · Nevada defense 49.8%
Ball securityHome 2.9 pts
Nevada attack 15.2% · Robert Morris defense 17.2%Robert Morris attack 18.4% · Nevada defense 17.5%
Second chancesAway 5.6 pts
Nevada attack 29.8% · Robert Morris defense 28.9%Robert Morris attack 33.4% · Nevada defense 27.0%
Free-throw pressureHome 10.4 pts
Nevada attack 42.3% · Robert Morris defense 37.1%Robert Morris attack 31.9% · Nevada defense 37.1%
Lawlor Events Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Saint Mary's vs Nevada
70.7Saint Mary's
64.2Nevada
Nevada win estimate36.7%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin-6.5
Projected total134.8
80% home-margin range-22.4 to 9.5
Estimated possessions63.4
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 3.2 pts
Nevada attack 52.1% · Saint Mary's defense 46.2%Saint Mary's attack 52.6% · Nevada defense 49.8%
Ball securityHome 0.1 pts
Nevada attack 15.2% · Saint Mary's defense 16.4%Saint Mary's attack 16.4% · Nevada defense 17.5%
Second chancesAway 4.3 pts
Nevada attack 29.8% · Saint Mary's defense 23.8%Saint Mary's attack 37.2% · Nevada defense 27.0%
Free-throw pressureHome 16.3 pts
Nevada attack 42.3% · Saint Mary's defense 29.4%Saint Mary's attack 33.8% · Nevada defense 37.1%
Lawlor Events Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Nevada vs SC Beaufort
74.1Nevada
69.7SC Beaufort
SC Beaufort win estimate42.2%
Exploratory cold-start estimate · at least one program is outside the trained field. Range is calibrated wider from held-out games; this estimate is not registered as a primary model forecast.
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-4.4
Projected total143.8
80% home-margin range-52.1 to 43.4
Estimated possessions66.7
Venue not supplied
Cold-start estimate · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →