A relative strength
Opponent offensive rebound rate
25.5% · rank 20 of 366 · 36 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Illinois St
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.112
+5.7 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
23–132025–26 recorded finals
109.5Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
103.8Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.0Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Illinois St.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
23–1336 recorded games · 36 paired efficiency samples · pace 67.3Mean opponent adj. net 2.9 · 35 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
54.1%36 games · higher is betterRank 79 / 366 · 79th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
49.3%36 games · lower is betterRank 90 / 366 · 76th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.8%36 games · lower is betterRank 196 / 366 · 47th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
16.0%36 games · higher is betterRank 243 / 366 · 34th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
28.7%36 games · higher is betterRank 265 / 366 · 28th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
25.5%36 games · lower is betterRank 20 / 366 · 95th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
31.2%36 games · higher is betterRank 272 / 366 · 26th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
31.7%36 games · lower is betterRank 109 / 366 · 70th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 110.6 | 36 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 101.4 | 36 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 55.0% | 36 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 49.6% | 36 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 35.3% | 36 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 32.5% | 36 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 43.1% | 36 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 35.4% | 36 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 70.5% | 36 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 68.6% | 36 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 51.2% | 36 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 51.8% | 36 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,443 source possession rows across 36 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Effective FG%
54.1% · rank 79 of 366 · 36 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
28.7% · rank 265 of 366 · 36 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
31.2% · rank 272 of 366 · 36 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; Illinois St won 5. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Apr 3, 2026 · neutral vs Auburn · L 66–88 · offense 102.7 / defense 136.9
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 36 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AuburnApr 3, 2026 · neutral | L 66–88 | 15 | 102.7 | 136.9 | 64.3 | 55.6 | 28.0 | 34.5 |
| DaytonMar 25, 2026 · road | W 61–55 | 58 | 97.2 | 87.6 | 62.8 | 62.5 | 23.9 | 8.3 |
| Wake ForestMar 22, 2026 · road | W 78–75 | 60 | 112.3 | 108.0 | 69.5 | 49.2 | 13.0 | 27.0 |
| Kent StateMar 19, 2026 · home | W 79–58 | 133 | 114.3 | 83.9 | 69.1 | 52.3 | 5.8 | 19.5 |
| Northern IowaMar 7, 2026 · neutral | L 52–74 | 87 | 83.5 | 118.9 | 62.3 | 35.9 | 16.1 | 22.9 |
| BelmontMar 1, 2026 · home | W 81–74 | 86 | 131.1 | 119.8 | 61.8 | 58.5 | 14.6 | 35.7 |
| Northern IowaFeb 26, 2026 · road | W 71–69 | 87 | 114.3 | 111.1 | 62.1 | 58.5 | 19.3 | 24.1 |
| BradleyFeb 22, 2026 · road | L 60–74 | 98 | 93.5 | 115.3 | 64.2 | 49.1 | 23.4 | 23.3 |
| Murray StFeb 19, 2026 · home | W 78–61 | 130 | 120.1 | 93.9 | 64.9 | 62.9 | 26.2 | 50.0 |
| UICFeb 15, 2026 · road | L 56–83 | 138 | 76.9 | 114.0 | 72.8 | 43.2 | 23.3 | 14.3 |
| ValparaisoFeb 13, 2026 · home | W 86–64 | 191 | 125.8 | 93.6 | 68.4 | 59.5 | 14.6 | 28.6 |
| EvansvilleFeb 10, 2026 · road | L 80–88 | 302 | 120.6 | 132.7 | 66.3 | 59.3 | 10.6 | 16.1 |
| DrakeFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 86–76 | 109 | 119.1 | 105.2 | 72.2 | 59.7 | 13.8 | 25.7 |
| S IllinoisFeb 4, 2026 · home | L 50–54 | 124 | 73.6 | 79.5 | 67.9 | 36.7 | 17.7 | 19.0 |
| Murray StJan 29, 2026 · road | W 70–65 | 130 | 101.7 | 94.4 | 68.9 | 55.4 | 17.4 | 18.8 |
| BelmontJan 24, 2026 · road | L 69–80 | 86 | 98.9 | 114.7 | 69.7 | 44.8 | 20.1 | 35.1 |
| Northern IowaJan 22, 2026 · home | W 59–54 | 87 | 91.3 | 83.6 | 64.6 | 44.8 | 26.3 | 31.3 |
| BradleyJan 17, 2026 · home | W 88–62 | 98 | 132.2 | 93.2 | 66.6 | 60.9 | 12.0 | 40.6 |
| Indiana StJan 15, 2026 · road | L 89–94 | 140 | 129.3 | 136.6 | 68.8 | 63.4 | 11.6 | 24.1 |
| UICJan 10, 2026 · home | L 59–63 | 138 | 85.1 | 90.9 | 61.6 | 33.9 | 17.3 | 31.9 |
| ValparaisoJan 8, 2026 · road | L 71–77 | 191 | 109.6 | 118.9 | 64.8 | 46.0 | 13.9 | 41.5 |
| EvansvilleJan 1, 2026 · home | W 73–47 | 302 | 102.0 | 65.6 | 71.6 | 52.6 | 12.6 | 14.7 |
| DrakeDec 30, 2025 · road | W 73–56 | 109 | 110.4 | 84.7 | 66.1 | 79.3 | 34.8 | 23.5 |
| Indiana StDec 21, 2025 · home | W 85–65 | 140 | 125.0 | 95.6 | 68.0 | 56.2 | 5.9 | 23.5 |
| S IllinoisDec 19, 2025 · road | W 75–68 | 124 | 107.1 | 97.1 | 70.0 | 55.7 | 18.6 | 33.3 |
| Utah StateDec 13, 2025 · neutral | L 78–83 | 30 | 116.7 | 124.1 | 66.9 | 63.7 | 25.4 | 33.3 |
| Chicago StDec 7, 2025 · home | W 95–53 | 360 | 141.5 | 79.0 | 67.1 | 62.1 | 17.9 | 55.3 |
| E KentuckyDec 4, 2025 · home | W 89–78 | 256 | 125.0 | 109.5 | 71.2 | 64.0 | 16.9 | 28.6 |
| FurmanNov 28, 2025 · neutral | W 72–65 | 146 | 107.6 | 97.2 | 66.9 | 52.6 | 15.0 | 27.3 |
| CharlotteNov 27, 2025 · neutral | W 79–69 | 181 | 120.0 | 104.8 | 65.8 | 55.8 | 10.6 | 30.0 |
| CoastalNov 23, 2025 · home | W 94–42 | 286 | 125.5 | 56.1 | 74.9 | 58.3 | 8.0 | 17.6 |
| RockfordNov 21, 2025 · home | W 93–48 | Unrated | 151.3 | 78.1 | 61.5 | 68.8 | 14.6 | 54.8 |
| Long Beach StNov 17, 2025 · road | W 82–80 | 265 | 120.5 | 117.6 | 68.0 | 52.0 | 8.8 | 16.1 |
| USCNov 15, 2025 · neutral | L 67–87 | 72 | 97.2 | 126.3 | 68.9 | 39.3 | 16.0 | 39.5 |
| CornellNov 9, 2025 · home | W 76–65 | 122 | 104.8 | 89.6 | 72.5 | 53.6 | 19.3 | 30.8 |
| OhioNov 7, 2025 · road | L 68–72 | 189 | 97.1 | 102.8 | 70.0 | 50.0 | 15.7 | 23.1 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny KinzigerG | 36 | 32.2 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 51.9 | 21.4% | 36 | 1.5736 games | 18836 games |
| Boden SkunbergG | 35 | 27.0 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 56.3 | 18.8% | 35 | 1.1935 games | 15235 games |
| Ty PenceG | 36 | 23.5 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 61.0 | 19.3% | 36 | 1.6536 games | 7536 games |
| Landon WolfG | 36 | 23.2 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 63.0 | 15.4% | 36 | 0.9036 games | 10936 games |
| Ty'Reek ColemanG | 35 | 22.7 | 10.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 60.9 | 22.5% | 35 | 1.0935 games | 8935 games |
| Chase WalkerF | 32 | 22.6 | 13.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 59.9 | 31.6% | 32 | 0.9332 games | 3132 games |
| Mason KlaboG | 34 | 16.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 59.4 | 16.6% | 34 | 2.2234 games | 8534 games |
| Landon MooreG | 36 | 13.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 51.1 | 14.6% | 36 | 2.0636 games | 6136 games |
| Brandon LiebF | 36 | 12.6 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 51.8 | 15.4% | 36 | 0.8636 games | 036 games |
| Jack DaughertyF | 29 | 10.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 38.0 | 19.8% | 29 | 1.0029 games | 9529 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Illinois St?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →