A relative strength
Turnovers forced
19.7% · rank 39 of 366 · 34 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Fullerton
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.255
-7.0 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
18–162025–26 recorded finals
102.0Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
109.0Adjusted defense · lower is better
70.9Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Fullerton.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
18–1634 recorded games · 34 paired efficiency samples · pace 76.3Mean opponent adj. net -0.5 · 32 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.5%34 games · higher is betterRank 151 / 366 · 59th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
53.5%34 games · lower is betterRank 309 / 366 · 16th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
15.1%34 games · lower is betterRank 74 / 366 · 80th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
19.7%34 games · higher is betterRank 39 / 366 · 90th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
25.4%34 games · higher is betterRank 343 / 366 · 6th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
28.0%34 games · lower is betterRank 82 / 366 · 78th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
38.1%34 games · higher is betterRank 90 / 366 · 76th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
34.6%34 games · lower is betterRank 185 / 366 · 50th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 108.8 | 34 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 107.1 | 34 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 53.3% | 34 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 55.9% | 34 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.3% | 34 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.8% | 34 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 43.0% | 34 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 45.9% | 34 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 71.7% | 34 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 75.0% | 34 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 57.0% | 34 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 58.7% | 34 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,598 source possession rows across 34 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnover rate
15.1% · rank 74 of 366 · 34 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Opponent effective FG%
53.5% · rank 309 of 366 · 34 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
25.4% · rank 343 of 366 · 34 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 8 times in the selected window; Fullerton won 3. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 14, 2026 · neutral vs Hawai'i · L 63–78 · offense 85.7 / defense 106.1
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 34 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'iMar 14, 2026 · neutral | L 63–78 | 136 | 85.7 | 106.1 | 73.6 | 43.8 | 13.6 | 14.0 |
| UC DavisMar 13, 2026 · neutral | W 82–70 | 193 | 98.9 | 84.4 | 82.9 | 39.3 | 20.5 | 35.1 |
| CSU NorthridgeMar 8, 2026 · road | W 90–77 | 171 | 108.9 | 93.1 | 82.7 | 58.2 | 13.3 | 12.5 |
| UC San DiegoMar 6, 2026 · home | W 75–71 | 97 | 107.4 | 101.6 | 69.9 | 51.5 | 12.9 | 27.5 |
| Hawai'iMar 1, 2026 · home | L 85–87 | 136 | 118.2 | 121.0 | 71.9 | 55.8 | 9.7 | 22.2 |
| BakersfieldFeb 22, 2026 · road | W 88–80 | 311 | 119.8 | 108.9 | 73.4 | 63.8 | 15.0 | 18.8 |
| UC DavisFeb 20, 2026 · home | W 93–92 | 193 | 139.6 | 138.1 | 66.6 | 71.7 | 16.5 | 31.8 |
| UC IrvineFeb 15, 2026 · road | L 65–86 | 95 | 88.4 | 117.0 | 73.5 | 44.8 | 15.0 | 20.5 |
| Long Beach StFeb 13, 2026 · road | W 86–82 | 265 | 115.9 | 110.5 | 74.2 | 53.1 | 13.5 | 31.4 |
| BakersfieldFeb 8, 2026 · home | W 82–66 | 311 | 110.6 | 89.0 | 74.2 | 50.8 | 14.8 | 30.8 |
| UC RiversideFeb 6, 2026 · home | W 78–72 | 241 | 103.4 | 95.5 | 75.4 | 46.4 | 13.3 | 16.7 |
| Santa BarbaraFeb 1, 2026 · road | L 69–83 | 143 | 94.1 | 113.2 | 73.3 | 51.8 | 20.5 | 14.7 |
| Cal PolyJan 25, 2026 · road | W 93–78 | 246 | 126.1 | 105.8 | 73.7 | 56.3 | 14.9 | 34.2 |
| Long Beach StJan 23, 2026 · home | W 71–61 | 265 | 104.3 | 89.6 | 68.1 | 57.1 | 19.1 | 19.2 |
| UC RiversideJan 18, 2026 · road | L 72–81 | 241 | 92.8 | 104.4 | 77.6 | 41.7 | 18.0 | 23.8 |
| UC DavisJan 16, 2026 · road | L 69–74 | 193 | 92.7 | 99.4 | 74.5 | 44.6 | 20.1 | 27.9 |
| CSU NorthridgeJan 11, 2026 · home | W 86–79 | 171 | 110.3 | 101.3 | 77.9 | 55.8 | 14.1 | 22.9 |
| UC San DiegoJan 9, 2026 · road | W 88–71 | 97 | 126.7 | 102.2 | 69.5 | 62.9 | 8.6 | 18.2 |
| UC IrvineJan 4, 2026 · home | L 64–86 | 95 | 92.3 | 124.0 | 69.4 | 41.0 | 14.4 | 29.8 |
| Santa BarbaraJan 2, 2026 · home | W 95–84 | 143 | 124.7 | 110.3 | 76.2 | 60.2 | 13.1 | 17.2 |
| SMUDec 28, 2025 · road | L 63–110 | 51 | 82.6 | 144.3 | 76.2 | 38.7 | 24.9 | 35.6 |
| Oklahoma StDec 21, 2025 · road | L 89–94 | 88 | 111.9 | 118.1 | 79.6 | 61.0 | 17.6 | 31.4 |
| DenverDec 13, 2025 · road | W 105–86 | 268 | 136.9 | 112.1 | 76.7 | 68.8 | 14.3 | 31.3 |
| BethesdaDec 11, 2025 · home | W 116–66 | Unrated | 139.5 | 79.4 | 83.2 | 67.4 | 15.6 | 38.7 |
| Hawai'iDec 7, 2025 · road | L 59–69 | 136 | 81.0 | 94.8 | 72.8 | 36.7 | 12.4 | 18.2 |
| Cal PolyDec 5, 2025 · home | L 91–94 | 246 | 106.4 | 109.9 | 85.5 | 53.8 | 19.9 | 30.0 |
| PepperdineNov 29, 2025 · home | W 83–69 | 261 | 118.0 | 98.1 | 70.3 | 54.2 | 12.8 | 33.3 |
| N ColoradoNov 23, 2025 · neutral | L 93–97 | 149 | 115.0 | 120.0 | 80.8 | 49.3 | 4.9 | 21.4 |
| St Thomas (MN)Nov 22, 2025 · neutral | W 88–80 | 118 | 115.1 | 104.6 | 76.5 | 54.2 | 13.1 | 18.8 |
| PortlandNov 22, 2025 · road | L 85–103 | 258 | 108.5 | 131.5 | 78.3 | 56.7 | 16.6 | 26.3 |
| PacificNov 15, 2025 · home | L 73–85 | 207 | 93.3 | 108.6 | 78.3 | 37.8 | 8.9 | 23.1 |
| CaliforniaNov 11, 2025 · road | L 65–93 | 104 | 84.2 | 120.4 | 77.2 | 43.5 | 18.1 | 26.7 |
| WyomingNov 8, 2025 · road | L 82–92 | 132 | 97.6 | 109.5 | 84.0 | 46.4 | 20.2 | 18.4 |
| CaltechNov 4, 2025 · home | W 136–82 | Unrated | 143.0 | 86.2 | 95.1 | 66.7 | 11.6 | 38.6 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua WardG | 34 | 30.9 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 55.5 | 22.9% | 34 | 1.7634 games | 14934 games |
| Jefferson De La Cruz MonegroG | 33 | 29.0 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 55.4 | 19.0% | 33 | 2.2133 games | 12633 games |
| Christian WilliamsG | 34 | 26.1 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 56.1 | 17.2% | 34 | 1.6134 games | 17234 games |
| Bryce CofieldG | 34 | 21.3 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 50.6 | 26.7% | 34 | 1.0834 games | 3834 games |
| Landon SeamanF | 34 | 20.7 | 12.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 60.6 | 24.7% | 34 | 1.1434 games | 8934 games |
| Kendrick De LunaF | 34 | 17.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 55.6 | 13.8% | 34 | 1.2334 games | 134 games |
| Jaden HendersonG | 32 | 17.8 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 54.1 | 21.1% | 32 | 1.5932 games | 10632 games |
| KJ GarrisG | 29 | 15.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 62.7 | 20.5% | 29 | 1.6229 games | 8729 games |
| Bailey NunnG | 22 | 19.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 60.0 | 12.5% | 22 | 2.5422 games | 6822 games |
| Davis WhiteG | 28 | 13.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 50.2 | 13.1% | 28 | 0.6528 games | 7428 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Fullerton?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →