A relative strength
Offensive rebound rate
36.1% · rank 33 of 366 · 34 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Fairfield
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.271
-7.9 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
21–132025–26 recorded finals
103.6Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
111.6Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.8Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Fairfield.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
21–1334 recorded games · 34 paired efficiency samples · pace 67.6Mean opponent adj. net -7.9 · 33 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
49.1%34 games · higher is betterRank 305 / 366 · 17th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
50.7%34 games · lower is betterRank 168 / 366 · 54th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
15.0%34 games · lower is betterRank 68 / 366 · 82th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
17.2%34 games · higher is betterRank 152 / 366 · 59th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
36.1%34 games · higher is betterRank 33 / 366 · 91th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
28.6%34 games · lower is betterRank 110 / 366 · 70th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
27.7%34 games · higher is betterRank 347 / 366 · 5th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
29.8%34 games · lower is betterRank 64 / 366 · 83th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 109.6 | 34 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 105.4 | 34 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 48.4% | 34 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 50.4% | 34 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 33.6% | 34 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.0% | 34 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 35.9% | 34 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 35.8% | 34 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 71.0% | 34 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 73.8% | 34 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 45.0% | 34 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 52.2% | 34 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,315 source possession rows across 34 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
29.8% · rank 64 of 366 · 34 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Effective FG%
49.1% · rank 305 of 366 · 34 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
27.7% · rank 347 of 366 · 34 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; Fairfield won 7. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 9, 2026 · neutral vs Siena · L 61–76 · offense 95.5 / defense 119.0
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 34 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SienaMar 9, 2026 · neutral | L 61–76 | 221 | 95.5 | 119.0 | 63.9 | 40.6 | 7.8 | 29.5 |
| Saint Peter'sMar 7, 2026 · neutral | W 74–55 | 250 | 114.7 | 85.3 | 64.5 | 49.2 | 18.6 | 46.3 |
| ManhattanMar 6, 2026 · neutral | W 71–60 | 323 | 104.5 | 88.3 | 67.9 | 46.2 | 13.3 | 34.2 |
| Mount St MarysMar 1, 2026 · home | L 47–69 | 264 | 70.3 | 103.2 | 66.8 | 28.7 | 22.4 | 32.6 |
| SienaFeb 28, 2026 · home | W 72–58 | 221 | 102.9 | 82.9 | 69.9 | 55.0 | 24.3 | 43.8 |
| QuinnipiacFeb 22, 2026 · road | W 85–79 | 192 | 124.3 | 115.5 | 68.4 | 56.0 | 16.1 | 42.3 |
| Sacred HeartFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 78–68 | 279 | 113.2 | 98.7 | 68.9 | 55.6 | 11.6 | 24.3 |
| Saint Peter'sFeb 15, 2026 · road | L 74–83 | 250 | 107.6 | 120.7 | 68.8 | 50.0 | 21.8 | 40.6 |
| MaristFeb 8, 2026 · home | W 63–60 | 200 | 103.0 | 98.1 | 61.2 | 47.3 | 13.1 | 25.7 |
| Sacred HeartFeb 6, 2026 · road | W 92–87 | 279 | 129.1 | 122.1 | 71.2 | 65.6 | 15.4 | 31.0 |
| QuinnipiacFeb 1, 2026 · home | L 65–72 | 192 | 94.6 | 104.8 | 68.7 | 38.7 | 11.6 | 38.9 |
| IonaJan 31, 2026 · road | W 71–70 | 215 | 113.9 | 112.2 | 62.4 | 47.7 | 17.6 | 51.2 |
| CanisiusJan 25, 2026 · home | W 61–55 | 354 | 99.7 | 89.9 | 61.2 | 47.3 | 19.6 | 40.5 |
| NiagaraJan 23, 2026 · home | W 62–61 | 331 | 95.3 | 93.8 | 65.0 | 46.7 | 18.5 | 34.2 |
| SienaJan 19, 2026 · road | L 77–85 | 221 | 119.2 | 131.6 | 64.6 | 56.9 | 13.9 | 27.6 |
| MaristJan 17, 2026 · road | L 67–82 | 200 | 100.9 | 123.5 | 66.4 | 42.1 | 15.1 | 32.5 |
| ManhattanJan 15, 2026 · home | W 98–62 | 323 | 136.3 | 86.2 | 71.9 | 66.7 | 13.9 | 34.4 |
| RiderJan 10, 2026 · home | W 68–62 | 342 | 108.8 | 99.2 | 62.5 | 41.9 | 9.6 | 38.6 |
| NiagaraJan 4, 2026 · road | W 83–75 | 331 | 137.3 | 124.1 | 60.4 | 56.1 | 8.3 | 41.4 |
| CanisiusJan 2, 2026 · road | L 81–85 | 354 | 121.1 | 127.1 | 66.9 | 48.5 | 12.0 | 40.5 |
| Saint Peter'sDec 30, 2025 · home | L 66–70 | 250 | 98.3 | 104.3 | 67.1 | 45.6 | 17.9 | 29.7 |
| City (NY)Dec 23, 2025 · home | W 121–58 | Unrated | 143.5 | 68.8 | 84.3 | 56.8 | 5.9 | 43.8 |
| C ConnecticutDec 19, 2025 · road | W 84–70 | 260 | 126.9 | 105.8 | 66.2 | 60.7 | 13.6 | 31.0 |
| MonmouthDec 14, 2025 · home | W 73–65 | 211 | 115.2 | 102.6 | 63.4 | 53.7 | 14.2 | 42.1 |
| MerrimackDec 7, 2025 · road | L 63–74 | 180 | 98.1 | 115.2 | 64.2 | 44.9 | 20.2 | 40.0 |
| ManhattanDec 6, 2025 · road | L 66–70 | 323 | 91.5 | 97.0 | 72.2 | 41.1 | 20.8 | 42.6 |
| New HampshireNov 30, 2025 · home | W 72–68 | 348 | 111.2 | 105.0 | 64.8 | 52.5 | 17.0 | 40.0 |
| ColumbiaNov 27, 2025 · home | L 77–106 | 217 | 108.3 | 149.1 | 71.1 | 46.5 | 14.1 | 37.0 |
| Le MoyneNov 22, 2025 · road | W 97–83 | 316 | 137.4 | 117.6 | 70.6 | 57.5 | 9.9 | 41.2 |
| Loyola MDNov 16, 2025 · home | W 85–82 | 330 | 119.2 | 115.0 | 71.3 | 53.6 | 9.8 | 35.0 |
| StonehillNov 15, 2025 · home | W 73–71 | 341 | 94.4 | 91.8 | 68.7 | 41.0 | 7.8 | 17.0 |
| Seton HallNov 11, 2025 · road | L 59–82 | 78 | 86.0 | 119.5 | 68.6 | 41.0 | 24.8 | 28.9 |
| NJITNov 8, 2025 · road | W 74–53 | 350 | 98.6 | 70.6 | 75.1 | 43.9 | 21.3 | 39.1 |
| Penn StateNov 4, 2025 · road | L 68–76 | 103 | 98.4 | 110.0 | 69.1 | 42.9 | 10.1 | 27.3 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden SparksG | 34 | 33.3 | 17.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 54.5 | 25.9% | 34 | 1.5934 games | 24634 games |
| Declan WucherpfennigG | 34 | 31.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 1.6 | 57.6 | 18.3% | 34 | 1.3134 games | 6334 games |
| Brandon BenjaminF | 32 | 31.3 | 14.2 | 10.4 | 1.2 | 58.8 | 22.0% | 32 | 0.7032 games | 832 games |
| Deuce TurnerG | 34 | 20.0 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48.8 | 24.2% | 34 | 1.2434 games | 12434 games |
| Tony WilliamsG | 33 | 20.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 48.7 | 18.7% | 33 | 2.1133 games | 12233 games |
| Eric MejiaG | 34 | 18.9 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 46.2 | 16.6% | 34 | 1.5334 games | 3634 games |
| Halon RawlinsG | 33 | 16.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 41.6 | 16.0% | 33 | 1.3333 games | 6833 games |
| Isaac MunkadiF | 34 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 56.4 | 14.2% | 34 | 0.2534 games | 434 games |
| Ryan ZanF | 28 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 41.6 | 10.2% | 28 | 0.3628 games | 1728 games |
| Cam EstevezG | 20 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 47.2 | 17.6% | 20 | 1.8020 games | 3220 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Fairfield?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
19Source-listed players
15Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 15 | 5,266 | 5,266 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 4 | 1,559 | 1,559 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,825 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
19 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Sparks →G | Same programFairfield Stags | 33.3 | 17.2 | 54.5% |
| Declan Wucherpfennig →G | Same programFairfield Stags | 31.6 | 12.1 | 57.6% |
| Brandon Benjamin →F | Same programFairfield Stags | 31.3 | 14.2 | 58.8% |
| Deuce Turner →G | Same programFairfield Stags | 20.0 | 8.4 | 48.8% |
| Tony Williams →G | Same programFairfield Stags | 20.0 | 6.5 | 48.7% |
| Eric Mejia →G | Same programFairfield Stags | 18.9 | 4.9 | 46.2% |
| Halon Rawlins →G | Same programFairfield Stags | 16.9 | 3.9 | 41.6% |
| Isaac Munkadi →F | Same programFairfield Stags | 9.4 | 2.7 | 56.4% |
| Ryan Zan →F | Same programFairfield Stags | 8.5 | 1.1 | 41.6% |
| Cam Estevez →G | Same programFairfield Stags | 11.6 | 3.5 | 47.2% |
| Nasir Rodriguez →G | Same programFairfield Stags | 7.2 | 2.7 | 40.2% |
| Michael Rogan →G | Same programFairfield Stags | 8.4 | 1.4 | 56.4% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Fairfield vs Providence
68.9Fairfield
84.7Providence
Providence win estimate86.9%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin15.8
Projected total153.6
80% home-margin range-0.1 to 31.8
Estimated possessions69.4
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.5 pts
Providence attack 54.2% · Fairfield defense 53.3%Fairfield attack 48.6% · Providence defense 49.3%
Ball securityHome 0.7 pts
Providence attack 17.3% · Fairfield defense 17.2%Fairfield attack 15.9% · Providence defense 15.2%
Second chancesAway 0.1 pts
Providence attack 31.9% · Fairfield defense 30.1%Fairfield attack 30.3% · Providence defense 28.4%
Free-throw pressureHome 6.5 pts
Providence attack 36.3% · Fairfield defense 32.4%Fairfield attack 29.8% · Providence defense 32.3%
Amica Mutual Pavilion
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →