A relative strength
Offensive rebound rate
33.7% · rank 94 of 366 · 32 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
E Kentucky
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.256
-7.1 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
11–212025–26 recorded finals
107.4Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
114.5Adjusted defense · lower is better
68.8Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on E Kentucky.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
11–2132 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 69.8Mean opponent adj. net -4.3 · 30 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 138 / 366 · 62th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
55.6%32 games · lower is betterRank 351 / 366 · 4th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.6%32 games · lower is betterRank 176 / 366 · 52th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
16.2%32 games · higher is betterRank 222 / 366 · 39th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
33.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 94 / 366 · 75th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
31.0%32 games · lower is betterRank 239 / 366 · 35th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
31.2%32 games · higher is betterRank 273 / 366 · 25th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
38.2%32 games · lower is betterRank 283 / 366 · 23th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 113.3 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 115.5 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 52.3% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 56.7% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 35.4% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 36.1% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 50.7% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 41.4% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 72.5% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 72.3% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 53.4% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 54.0% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,273 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Effective FG%
52.7% · rank 138 of 366 · 32 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
38.2% · rank 283 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Opponent effective FG%
55.6% · rank 351 of 366 · 32 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; E Kentucky won 5. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 4, 2026 · neutral vs Stetson · L 76–92 · offense 115.9 / defense 140.3
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StetsonMar 4, 2026 · neutral | L 76–92 | 326 | 115.9 | 140.3 | 65.6 | 60.4 | 16.8 | 21.4 |
| LipscombFeb 28, 2026 · home | L 77–80 | 144 | 117.7 | 122.3 | 65.4 | 54.2 | 19.9 | 38.9 |
| QueensFeb 26, 2026 · home | L 79–96 | 205 | 111.8 | 135.8 | 70.7 | 51.8 | 15.6 | 32.4 |
| BellarmineFeb 22, 2026 · road | W 95–92 | 317 | 149.0 | 144.3 | 63.7 | 73.1 | 12.6 | 28.0 |
| West GeorgiaFeb 19, 2026 · home | W 81–80 | 325 | 101.6 | 100.4 | 70.8 | 46.5 | 15.1 | 30.4 |
| North AlabamaFeb 15, 2026 · road | L 78–84 | 290 | 104.6 | 112.6 | 66.3 | 45.0 | 10.7 | 28.6 |
| LipscombFeb 12, 2026 · road | L 61–75 | 144 | 93.2 | 114.6 | 65.5 | 45.2 | 19.9 | 34.2 |
| StetsonFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 100–88 | 326 | 142.0 | 125.0 | 70.4 | 61.9 | 9.9 | 36.7 |
| FGCUFeb 6, 2026 · home | W 76–74 | 219 | 108.5 | 105.7 | 70.0 | 49.1 | 18.6 | 33.3 |
| C ArkansasJan 31, 2026 · road | L 81–90 | 259 | 106.8 | 118.7 | 75.9 | 54.4 | 19.8 | 24.3 |
| Austin PeayJan 29, 2026 · home | L 82–90 | 216 | 110.9 | 121.7 | 73.9 | 40.3 | 12.2 | 42.9 |
| JacksonvilleJan 24, 2026 · road | L 76–81 | 287 | 110.5 | 117.8 | 61.1 | 53.8 | 21.8 | 40.0 |
| North FloridaJan 23, 2026 · road | L 85–87 | 321 | 119.5 | 122.4 | 71.1 | 58.2 | 15.5 | 35.0 |
| BellarmineJan 18, 2026 · home | W 89–69 | 317 | 140.4 | 108.9 | 63.4 | 68.9 | 18.9 | 44.4 |
| Austin PeayJan 16, 2026 · road | L 72–74 | 216 | 114.9 | 118.1 | 62.7 | 68.4 | 27.1 | 34.8 |
| C ArkansasJan 10, 2026 · home | W 79–75 | 259 | 111.7 | 106.0 | 62.9 | 58.6 | 18.4 | 27.8 |
| North AlabamaJan 9, 2026 · home | W 88–80 | 290 | 133.5 | 121.4 | 65.9 | 54.8 | 9.1 | 42.9 |
| West GeorgiaJan 3, 2026 · road | L 76–88 | 325 | 109.2 | 126.4 | 69.6 | 52.2 | 12.9 | 29.3 |
| QueensJan 2, 2026 · road | L 89–91 | 205 | 127.4 | 130.3 | 69.9 | 60.7 | 7.2 | 22.9 |
| Wichita StDec 21, 2025 · road | L 57–88 | 92 | 85.1 | 131.4 | 67.0 | 43.4 | 13.4 | 14.6 |
| Jax StateDec 18, 2025 · road | W 62–59 | 173 | 97.9 | 93.2 | 63.3 | 47.3 | 26.9 | 39.4 |
| Miami OHDec 13, 2025 · home | L 69–79 | 119 | 102.4 | 117.3 | 67.4 | 41.9 | 20.8 | 43.2 |
| E IllinoisDec 11, 2025 · road | W 68–59 | 327 | 108.1 | 93.8 | 62.9 | 49.1 | 17.5 | 35.3 |
| IU EastDec 6, 2025 · home | W 122–67 | Unrated | 135.5 | 74.4 | 90.1 | 58.4 | 13.3 | 45.8 |
| Illinois StDec 4, 2025 · road | L 78–89 | 112 | 109.5 | 125.0 | 71.2 | 53.4 | 18.3 | 28.2 |
| WoffordNov 29, 2025 · home | L 77–83 | 197 | 107.1 | 115.4 | 71.9 | 44.4 | 13.9 | 35.6 |
| N KentuckyNov 25, 2025 · road | L 71–82 | 183 | 100.0 | 115.5 | 71.0 | 49.2 | 19.7 | 32.4 |
| MercerNov 22, 2025 · home | L 83–95 | 196 | 116.3 | 133.2 | 71.3 | 48.6 | 15.4 | 40.9 |
| Kent StateNov 19, 2025 · road | L 78–93 | 133 | 95.7 | 114.1 | 81.5 | 48.5 | 23.3 | 32.6 |
| VanderbiltNov 13, 2025 · road | L 62–92 | 29 | 85.2 | 126.4 | 72.8 | 40.0 | 19.2 | 22.7 |
| Western KYNov 11, 2025 · home | L 79–87 | 157 | 104.8 | 115.4 | 75.4 | 54.1 | 18.6 | 23.5 |
| MidwayNov 7, 2025 · home | W 122–60 | Unrated | 144.9 | 71.2 | 84.2 | 59.4 | 11.9 | 48.9 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montavious MyrickF | 30 | 30.3 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 57.6 | 18.9% | 30 | 1.0730 games | 130 games |
| Turner ButtryG | 32 | 26.4 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 58.9 | 17.6% | 32 | 2.4632 games | 15832 games |
| Juan Cranford Jr.G | 32 | 25.9 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 55.5 | 23.1% | 32 | 1.1832 games | 22332 games |
| MJ WilliamsG | 32 | 23.7 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 52.2 | 23.7% | 32 | 2.1132 games | 16632 games |
| Jackson HoltG | 32 | 19.8 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 62.4 | 16.0% | 32 | 1.4132 games | 13432 games |
| Austin BallF | 31 | 20.4 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 51.1 | 20.0% | 31 | 1.4231 games | 14331 games |
| Jalen CooperF | 24 | 23.4 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 58.0 | 18.5% | 24 | 0.6324 games | 4124 games |
| Yvens PaulF | 32 | 17.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 58.3 | 14.2% | 32 | 0.4432 games | 032 games |
| Jayden HarrisF | 29 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 51.9 | 27.5% | 29 | 1.3329 games | 8229 games |
| Tyler JacksonG | 19 | 16.8 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 53.8 | 25.1% | 19 | 0.7719 games | 6419 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around E Kentucky?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
13Source-listed players
12Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 7 | 3,392 | 3,392 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 5 | 2,982 | 2,982 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 1 | 126 | 126 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,500 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
13 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montavious Myrick →F | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 30.3 | 11.7 | 57.6% |
| Turner Buttry →G | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 26.4 | 9.8 | 58.9% |
| Juan Cranford Jr. →G | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 25.9 | 12.1 | 55.5% |
| MJ Williams →G | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 23.7 | 10.0 | 52.2% |
| Jackson Holt →G | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 19.8 | 7.2 | 62.4% |
| Austin Ball →F | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 20.4 | 8.0 | 51.1% |
| Jalen Cooper →F | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 23.4 | 8.5 | 58.0% |
| Yvens Paul →F | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 17.2 | 4.4 | 58.3% |
| Jayden Harris →F | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 11.4 | 6.3 | 51.9% |
| Tyler Jackson →G | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 16.8 | 8.6 | 53.8% |
| Asa White →C | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 6.3 | 1.1 | 55.6% |
| Mason Miles →G | Same programEastern Kentucky Colonels | 1.8 | 1.2 | 50.0% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
E Kentucky vs Miami OH
73.5E Kentucky
85.1Miami OH
Miami OH win estimate80.8%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin11.6
Projected total158.6
80% home-margin range-4.3 to 27.5
Estimated possessions70.2
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 2.6 pts
Miami OH attack 54.4% · E Kentucky defense 53.3%E Kentucky attack 50.2% · Miami OH defense 51.6%
Ball securityAway 1.6 pts
Miami OH attack 16.3% · E Kentucky defense 16.3%E Kentucky attack 16.3% · Miami OH defense 17.9%
Second chancesAway 8.3 pts
Miami OH attack 25.7% · E Kentucky defense 32.1%E Kentucky attack 31.6% · Miami OH defense 29.7%
Free-throw pressureHome 1.5 pts
Miami OH attack 34.7% · E Kentucky defense 35.7%E Kentucky attack 30.3% · Miami OH defense 32.8%
Millett Hall
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
E Kentucky vs Air Force
74.1E Kentucky
71.2Air Force
Air Force win estimate46.1%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-2.9
Projected total145.3
80% home-margin range-18.9 to 13.0
Estimated possessions66.7
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.4 pts
Air Force attack 50.9% · E Kentucky defense 53.3%E Kentucky attack 50.2% · Air Force defense 53.9%
Ball securityAway 3.5 pts
Air Force attack 20.0% · E Kentucky defense 16.3%E Kentucky attack 16.3% · Air Force defense 16.2%
Second chancesAway 10.1 pts
Air Force attack 23.6% · E Kentucky defense 32.1%E Kentucky attack 31.6% · Air Force defense 30.0%
Free-throw pressureHome 4.5 pts
Air Force attack 34.4% · E Kentucky defense 35.7%E Kentucky attack 30.3% · Air Force defense 36.1%
Clune Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
E Kentucky vs Austin Peay
73.7E Kentucky
79.2Austin Peay
Austin Peay win estimate68.3%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin5.5
Projected total152.9
80% home-margin range-10.4 to 21.5
Estimated possessions68.8
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 0.8 pts
Austin Peay attack 49.8% · E Kentucky defense 53.3%E Kentucky attack 50.2% · Austin Peay defense 52.8%
Ball securityAway 0.8 pts
Austin Peay attack 15.8% · E Kentucky defense 16.3%E Kentucky attack 16.3% · Austin Peay defense 17.6%
Second chancesAway 5.2 pts
Austin Peay attack 27.9% · E Kentucky defense 32.1%E Kentucky attack 31.6% · Austin Peay defense 30.6%
Free-throw pressureHome 4.9 pts
Austin Peay attack 34.4% · E Kentucky defense 35.7%E Kentucky attack 30.3% · Austin Peay defense 36.5%
F&M Bank Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →