A relative strength
Turnover rate
14.9% · rank 64 of 366 · 34 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Drake
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.109
+6.0 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
14–202025–26 recorded finals
110.8Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
104.8Adjusted defense · lower is better
66.0Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Drake.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
14–2034 recorded games · 34 paired efficiency samples · pace 68.1Mean opponent adj. net 1.9 · 32 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
52.1%34 games · higher is betterRank 170 / 366 · 54th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
51.9%34 games · lower is betterRank 243 / 366 · 34th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
14.9%34 games · lower is betterRank 64 / 366 · 83th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
15.1%34 games · higher is betterRank 297 / 366 · 19th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
27.1%34 games · higher is betterRank 307 / 366 · 16th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
29.0%34 games · lower is betterRank 134 / 366 · 64th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
33.5%34 games · higher is betterRank 221 / 366 · 40th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
30.8%34 games · lower is betterRank 89 / 366 · 76th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 109.5 | 34 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 109.1 | 34 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 52.7% | 34 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 50.2% | 34 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.2% | 34 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 36.0% | 34 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 45.7% | 34 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 44.2% | 34 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 71.9% | 34 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 68.0% | 34 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 52.0% | 34 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 55.4% | 34 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,351 source possession rows across 34 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
30.8% · rank 89 of 366 · 34 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Turnovers forced
15.1% · rank 297 of 366 · 34 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
27.1% · rank 307 of 366 · 34 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 13 times in the selected window; Drake won 5. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 7, 2026 · neutral vs UIC · L 51–72 · offense 82.1 / defense 115.9
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 34 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UICMar 7, 2026 · neutral | L 51–72 | 138 | 82.1 | 115.9 | 62.1 | 38.4 | 16.1 | 23.7 |
| BelmontMar 6, 2026 · neutral | W 100–79 | 86 | 138.6 | 109.5 | 72.2 | 70.2 | 11.1 | 17.4 |
| S IllinoisMar 5, 2026 · neutral | W 67–63 | 124 | 104.0 | 97.8 | 64.4 | 50.9 | 15.5 | 25.0 |
| Northern IowaMar 1, 2026 · home | L 53–75 | 87 | 84.2 | 119.1 | 63.0 | 38.8 | 23.8 | 39.0 |
| ValparaisoFeb 26, 2026 · road | L 71–74 | 191 | 111.6 | 116.3 | 63.6 | 55.4 | 17.3 | 32.1 |
| S IllinoisFeb 19, 2026 · home | L 61–66 | 124 | 86.4 | 93.5 | 70.6 | 45.8 | 19.8 | 25.6 |
| Northern IowaFeb 15, 2026 · road | L 62–86 | 87 | 94.5 | 131.0 | 65.6 | 47.2 | 15.2 | 17.6 |
| UICFeb 13, 2026 · home | L 70–80 | 138 | 106.7 | 122.0 | 65.6 | 52.8 | 18.3 | 25.0 |
| ValparaisoFeb 10, 2026 · home | L 76–81 | 191 | 113.9 | 121.4 | 66.7 | 48.6 | 9.0 | 31.8 |
| Illinois StFeb 7, 2026 · road | L 76–86 | 112 | 105.2 | 119.1 | 72.2 | 48.4 | 13.8 | 28.6 |
| BelmontFeb 4, 2026 · road | L 90–103 | 86 | 128.8 | 147.4 | 69.9 | 65.0 | 17.2 | 35.7 |
| BradleyJan 31, 2026 · home | L 73–87 | 98 | 112.3 | 133.8 | 65.0 | 44.8 | 12.3 | 35.1 |
| EvansvilleJan 29, 2026 · home | W 82–78 | 302 | 122.6 | 116.6 | 66.9 | 52.9 | 10.5 | 28.1 |
| Indiana StJan 24, 2026 · road | W 76–62 | 140 | 103.8 | 84.7 | 73.2 | 48.4 | 12.3 | 25.0 |
| Murray StJan 22, 2026 · home | W 101–90 | 130 | 123.4 | 109.9 | 81.9 | 53.9 | 11.0 | 29.7 |
| UICJan 17, 2026 · road | L 67–74 | 138 | 101.1 | 111.6 | 66.3 | 48.3 | 15.1 | 26.3 |
| S IllinoisJan 15, 2026 · road | W 76–73 | 124 | 96.0 | 92.2 | 70.3 | 46.8 | 17.7 | 22.0 |
| BelmontJan 10, 2026 · home | L 76–78 | 86 | 104.4 | 107.2 | 72.8 | 58.8 | 23.4 | 22.9 |
| BradleyJan 8, 2026 · road | L 66–93 | 98 | 88.8 | 125.2 | 74.3 | 46.2 | 18.8 | 15.4 |
| Indiana StJan 4, 2026 · home | W 74–72 | 140 | 117.2 | 114.0 | 63.2 | 59.3 | 14.3 | 31.3 |
| Illinois StDec 30, 2025 · home | L 56–73 | 112 | 84.7 | 110.4 | 66.1 | 40.2 | 13.6 | 17.5 |
| EvansvilleDec 21, 2025 · road | W 66–65 | 302 | 101.0 | 99.5 | 65.3 | 53.5 | 18.4 | 26.5 |
| Murray StDec 19, 2025 · road | L 72–81 | 130 | 107.7 | 121.2 | 66.8 | 47.4 | 16.5 | 34.3 |
| N Dakota StDec 13, 2025 · home | L 94–99 | 128 | 130.4 | 137.3 | 72.1 | 65.4 | 18.0 | 22.2 |
| UABDec 6, 2025 · home | L 69–74 | 106 | 100.8 | 108.1 | 68.4 | 46.0 | 11.7 | 22.5 |
| W IllinoisDec 3, 2025 · home | W 108–57 | 362 | 169.2 | 89.3 | 63.8 | 86.6 | 12.5 | 29.4 |
| Georgia TechNov 29, 2025 · neutral | W 84–74 | 137 | 128.9 | 113.5 | 65.2 | 58.2 | 9.2 | 29.0 |
| LSUNov 29, 2025 · neutral | L 62–71 | 74 | 90.8 | 103.9 | 68.3 | 42.6 | 10.2 | 14.3 |
| Buena VistaNov 22, 2025 · home | W 98–52 | Unrated | 145.1 | 77.0 | 67.5 | 70.3 | 14.8 | 48.0 |
| CharlestonNov 18, 2025 · road | W 71–62 | 135 | 103.1 | 90.1 | 68.8 | 51.6 | 18.9 | 26.8 |
| SIUENov 15, 2025 · home | L 59–61 | 231 | 96.7 | 99.9 | 61.0 | 45.8 | 13.1 | 28.2 |
| Simpson (IA)Nov 11, 2025 · home | W 89–51 | Unrated | 118.6 | 68.0 | 75.1 | 54.2 | 13.3 | 27.8 |
| Robert MorrisNov 7, 2025 · home | L 79–81 | 166 | 106.0 | 108.7 | 66.2 | 41.5 | 10.7 | 30.4 |
| N ArizonaNov 3, 2025 · neutral | W 77–71 | 308 | 111.5 | 102.8 | 69.1 | 50.8 | 14.5 | 33.3 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen QuinnG | 34 | 33.6 | 19.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 55.0 | 31.7% | 34 | 1.0934 games | 13734 games |
| Andrew AliaG | 33 | 31.3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 57.9 | 11.1% | 33 | 2.0033 games | 12133 games |
| Eli ShetlarG | 34 | 27.8 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 60.0 | 15.2% | 34 | 2.1434 games | 19534 games |
| Okku FederikoF | 34 | 23.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 57.7 | 19.4% | 34 | 1.2434 games | 5434 games |
| Owen LarsonG | 25 | 28.9 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 52.0 | 20.3% | 25 | 1.5825 games | 12625 games |
| Jaehshon ThomasG | 33 | 21.3 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 50.4 | 23.4% | 33 | 1.8533 games | 10933 games |
| Griffen GoodbaryF | 32 | 13.1 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 61.5 | 13.0% | 32 | 2.1532 games | 3232 games |
| Isaiah CarrF | 32 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 58.2 | 17.7% | 32 | 0.7132 games | 132 games |
| Braden AppelhansG | 27 | 13.7 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 55.5 | 19.4% | 27 | 1.2727 games | 9027 games |
| Wilguens Jr. ExacteF | 18 | 19.4 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 49.1 | 23.8% | 18 | 1.1218 games | 4518 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Drake?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →