A relative strength
Turnover rate
14.8% · rank 55 of 366 · 33 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Colgate
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.209
-3.6 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
18–152025–26 recorded finals
106.6Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
110.3Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.7Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Colgate.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
18–1533 recorded games · 33 paired efficiency samples · pace 66.9Mean opponent adj. net -4.6 · 31 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
54.2%33 games · higher is betterRank 75 / 366 · 80th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
51.1%33 games · lower is betterRank 194 / 366 · 47th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
14.8%33 games · lower is betterRank 55 / 366 · 85th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
15.4%33 games · higher is betterRank 280 / 366 · 24th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
27.1%33 games · higher is betterRank 304 / 366 · 17th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
29.0%33 games · lower is betterRank 132 / 366 · 64th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
29.2%33 games · higher is betterRank 322 / 366 · 12th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
32.8%33 games · lower is betterRank 139 / 366 · 62th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 111.7 | 33 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 109.0 | 33 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 54.4% | 33 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.0% | 33 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 35.9% | 33 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.2% | 33 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 35.0% | 33 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 41.0% | 33 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 74.9% | 33 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 71.7% | 33 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 51.9% | 33 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 54.1% | 33 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,266 source possession rows across 33 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Effective FG%
54.2% · rank 75 of 366 · 33 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
27.1% · rank 304 of 366 · 33 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
29.2% · rank 322 of 366 · 33 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 14 times in the selected window; Colgate won 7. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 8, 2026 · road vs Lehigh · L 69–76 · offense 100.7 / defense 110.9
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 33 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LehighMar 8, 2026 · road | L 69–76 | 291 | 100.7 | 110.9 | 68.5 | 46.0 | 10.2 | 19.4 |
| Loyola MDMar 6, 2026 · home | W 90–77 | 330 | 139.5 | 119.4 | 64.5 | 70.6 | 12.4 | 30.4 |
| NavyFeb 28, 2026 · road | L 69–85 | 182 | 103.7 | 127.8 | 66.5 | 50.9 | 21.0 | 31.4 |
| LafayetteFeb 26, 2026 · home | L 69–70 | 319 | 110.6 | 112.2 | 62.4 | 51.8 | 8.0 | 19.4 |
| Loyola MDFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 101–98 | 330 | 115.7 | 112.3 | 77.6 | 53.8 | 11.5 | 14.3 |
| Boston UFeb 16, 2026 · road | L 58–85 | 270 | 101.3 | 148.4 | 57.3 | 42.2 | 10.5 | 30.8 |
| NavyFeb 14, 2026 · home | L 80–84 | 182 | 111.8 | 117.4 | 63.6 | 58.3 | 16.8 | 23.5 |
| Holy CrossFeb 11, 2026 · road | W 74–70 | 334 | 108.1 | 102.3 | 68.5 | 50.8 | 11.7 | 21.2 |
| BucknellFeb 7, 2026 · road | W 78–59 | 310 | 106.3 | 80.4 | 73.4 | 50.8 | 13.6 | 26.3 |
| ArmyFeb 5, 2026 · home | W 69–55 | 340 | 107.3 | 85.6 | 64.3 | 50.9 | 21.8 | 40.6 |
| LehighJan 31, 2026 · road | L 76–77 | 291 | 106.5 | 107.9 | 63.4 | 51.8 | 19.6 | 34.5 |
| Holy CrossJan 29, 2026 · home | W 79–74 | 334 | 119.3 | 111.7 | 66.2 | 54.7 | 9.1 | 27.8 |
| Boston UJan 24, 2026 · home | W 80–79 | 270 | 109.9 | 108.6 | 64.7 | 57.0 | 19.2 | 36.4 |
| AmericanJan 22, 2026 · road | L 66–70 | 247 | 98.1 | 104.0 | 67.3 | 49.0 | 19.3 | 25.0 |
| BucknellJan 17, 2026 · home | W 95–76 | 310 | 133.0 | 106.4 | 71.4 | 66.7 | 14.0 | 34.5 |
| Loyola MDJan 15, 2026 · road | W 86–80 | 330 | 119.1 | 110.8 | 72.2 | 56.7 | 12.5 | 21.2 |
| LehighJan 10, 2026 · home | L 77–78 | 291 | 118.2 | 119.7 | 65.2 | 52.6 | 15.3 | 36.4 |
| AmericanJan 8, 2026 · home | W 64–62 | 247 | 107.8 | 104.4 | 59.4 | 49.0 | 16.8 | 38.2 |
| ArmyJan 3, 2026 · road | W 76–69 | 340 | 124.5 | 113.0 | 61.1 | 53.4 | 11.5 | 33.3 |
| LafayetteDec 31, 2025 · road | W 85–77 | 319 | 115.7 | 104.8 | 73.5 | 53.5 | 12.2 | 22.9 |
| HarvardDec 28, 2025 · home | L 69–78 | 175 | 100.3 | 113.4 | 68.8 | 51.7 | 17.4 | 18.8 |
| FloridaDec 21, 2025 · road | L 60–90 | 4 | 92.6 | 138.9 | 64.8 | 51.8 | 20.1 | 17.1 |
| St BonaventureDec 11, 2025 · road | L 77–85 | 125 | 110.5 | 121.9 | 69.7 | 50.0 | 8.6 | 36.6 |
| St John FisherDec 6, 2025 · home | W 94–50 | Unrated | 129.3 | 68.8 | 72.7 | 68.5 | 16.5 | 33.3 |
| FordhamNov 30, 2025 · neutral | W 72–62 | 187 | 112.0 | 96.5 | 64.3 | 52.5 | 15.6 | 35.3 |
| SUNY OneontaNov 29, 2025 · neutral | W 85–50 | Unrated | 140.0 | 82.3 | 60.7 | 69.4 | 18.1 | 43.5 |
| UAlbanyNov 29, 2025 · neutral | W 69–67 | 303 | 107.2 | 104.1 | 64.4 | 55.0 | 14.0 | 26.5 |
| CornellNov 21, 2025 · road | L 94–95 | 122 | 102.5 | 103.6 | 73.4 | 51.2 | 14.2 | 23.8 |
| SienaNov 18, 2025 · road | W 72–69 | 221 | 112.0 | 107.3 | 64.3 | 56.7 | 15.5 | 22.2 |
| IllinoisNov 15, 2025 · road | L 65–84 | 7 | 97.3 | 125.7 | 66.8 | 46.0 | 7.5 | 16.7 |
| DrexelNov 12, 2025 · home | W 90–83 | 185 | 129.5 | 119.5 | 69.5 | 71.7 | 18.7 | 16.7 |
| NortheasternNov 7, 2025 · home | L 65–68 | 262 | 96.7 | 101.1 | 67.2 | 44.1 | 16.4 | 29.4 |
| Michigan StNov 4, 2025 · road | L 69–80 | 13 | 99.7 | 115.6 | 69.2 | 57.0 | 18.8 | 9.7 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen CoxG | 31 | 34.2 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 59.5 | 27.1% | 31 | 2.2831 games | 5231 games |
| Andrew AlekseyenkoF | 33 | 29.7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 58.3 | 26.8% | 33 | 1.0533 games | 10733 games |
| Ben TweedyG | 33 | 29.4 | 9.4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 58.9 | 16.8% | 33 | 1.9333 games | 10933 games |
| Sam WrightF | 33 | 25.6 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 56.7 | 24.6% | 33 | 0.8133 games | 12533 games |
| Josh AhayereG | 32 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 58.9 | 15.5% | 32 | 1.7632 games | 6532 games |
| Kyle CarlesimoG | 33 | 24.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 52.6 | 17.5% | 33 | 1.2933 games | 16433 games |
| Cooper WrightF | 30 | 12.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 58.3 | 7.8% | 30 | 1.8230 games | 030 games |
| Ayomi OdetoyinboF | 33 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 57.4 | 10.7% | 33 | 0.6933 games | 133 games |
| Brady CumminsG | 18 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 47.2 | 16.4% | 18 | 1.2518 games | 3518 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Colgate?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
16Source-listed players
13Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 10 | 4,001 | 4,001 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 6 | 2,749 | 2,749 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,750 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
16 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Cox →G | Same programColgate Raiders | 34.2 | 17.9 | 59.5% |
| Andrew Alekseyenko →F | Same programColgate Raiders | 29.7 | 14.8 | 58.3% |
| Ben Tweedy →G | Same programColgate Raiders | 29.4 | 9.4 | 58.9% |
| Sam Wright →F | Same programColgate Raiders | 25.6 | 12.3 | 56.7% |
| Josh Ahayere →G | Same programColgate Raiders | 25.3 | 7.8 | 58.9% |
| Kyle Carlesimo →G | Same programColgate Raiders | 24.5 | 7.8 | 52.6% |
| Cooper Wright →F | Same programColgate Raiders | 12.4 | 1.7 | 58.3% |
| Ayomi Odetoyinbo →F | Same programColgate Raiders | 10.9 | 2.1 | 57.4% |
| Brady Cummins →G | Same programColgate Raiders | 16.8 | 4.2 | 47.2% |
| Ethan Brown →F | Same programColgate Raiders | 7.6 | 1.5 | 48.0% |
| Cameron Brennan →F | Same programColgate Raiders | 4.7 | 1.1 | 39.1% |
| Charlie Pugh →G | Same programColgate Raiders | 3.4 | 1.0 | 66.7% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Colgate vs Syracuse
69.2Colgate
79.7Syracuse
Syracuse win estimate78.8%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin10.5
Projected total148.9
80% home-margin range-5.4 to 26.5
Estimated possessions68.3
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 1.5 pts
Syracuse attack 53.0% · Colgate defense 51.9%Colgate attack 53.1% · Syracuse defense 50.5%
Ball securityAway 2.0 pts
Syracuse attack 16.7% · Colgate defense 15.9%Colgate attack 16.3% · Syracuse defense 17.4%
Second chancesHome 5.3 pts
Syracuse attack 30.0% · Colgate defense 28.6%Colgate attack 26.1% · Syracuse defense 29.9%
Free-throw pressureHome 7.5 pts
Syracuse attack 35.6% · Colgate defense 31.1%Colgate attack 29.4% · Syracuse defense 32.5%
JMA Wireless Dome
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →