A relative strength
Turnovers forced
19.2% · rank 58 of 366 · 31 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Ball State
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.273
-8.0 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
12–192025–26 recorded finals
101.5Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
109.5Adjusted defense · lower is better
66.3Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Ball State.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
12–1931 recorded games · 31 paired efficiency samples · pace 65.8Mean opponent adj. net -3.9 · 29 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
48.2%31 games · higher is betterRank 329 / 366 · 10th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
51.4%31 games · lower is betterRank 207 / 366 · 44th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.0%31 games · lower is betterRank 143 / 366 · 61th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
19.2%31 games · higher is betterRank 58 / 366 · 84th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
27.0%31 games · higher is betterRank 309 / 366 · 16th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
29.5%31 games · lower is betterRank 158 / 366 · 57th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
32.1%31 games · higher is betterRank 254 / 366 · 31th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
32.3%31 games · lower is betterRank 123 / 366 · 67th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 101.7 | 31 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 104.7 | 31 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 48.6% | 31 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 52.3% | 31 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 31.6% | 31 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.4% | 31 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 39.0% | 31 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 41.0% | 31 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 69.4% | 31 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 76.2% | 31 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 53.0% | 31 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 53.7% | 31 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,068 source possession rows across 31 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
32.3% · rank 123 of 366 · 31 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
27.0% · rank 309 of 366 · 31 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Effective FG%
48.2% · rank 329 of 366 · 31 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 8 times in the selected window; Ball State won 6. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 7, 2026 · home vs C Michigan · W 85–69 · offense 125.8 / defense 102.1
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 31 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C MichiganMar 7, 2026 · home | W 85–69 | 266 | 125.8 | 102.1 | 67.6 | 66.4 | 17.8 | 25.9 |
| W MichiganMar 4, 2026 · road | W 74–71 | 295 | 103.2 | 99.0 | 63.7 | 50.8 | 11.2 | 21.6 |
| N IllinoisFeb 28, 2026 · road | W 79–43 | 344 | 125.7 | 68.4 | 62.8 | 59.2 | 11.1 | 25.8 |
| UMassFeb 25, 2026 · home | W 74–73 | 177 | 100.6 | 99.3 | 65.4 | 40.0 | 13.6 | 34.0 |
| AkronFeb 20, 2026 · home | L 65–78 | 75 | 96.7 | 116.1 | 67.2 | 50.9 | 20.8 | 27.0 |
| OhioFeb 18, 2026 · road | L 57–69 | 189 | 95.3 | 115.4 | 59.8 | 45.4 | 15.0 | 30.6 |
| Kent StateFeb 14, 2026 · home | L 68–75 | 133 | 93.7 | 103.3 | 72.6 | 41.1 | 13.8 | 20.0 |
| BuffaloFeb 12, 2026 · home | L 53–63 | 277 | 89.6 | 106.5 | 59.2 | 42.6 | 22.0 | 31.4 |
| UL MonroeFeb 7, 2026 · road | W 73–68 | 358 | 105.3 | 98.1 | 69.3 | 47.6 | 20.2 | 36.8 |
| Bowling GreenFeb 4, 2026 · road | L 52–77 | 190 | 83.1 | 123.0 | 62.6 | 43.1 | 16.0 | 16.2 |
| ToledoJan 31, 2026 · road | L 55–73 | 148 | 81.2 | 107.8 | 67.7 | 35.3 | 20.7 | 28.2 |
| N IllinoisJan 24, 2026 · home | W 58–53 | 344 | 97.0 | 88.6 | 59.8 | 50.0 | 13.4 | 17.2 |
| C MichiganJan 21, 2026 · road | W 68–67 | 266 | 115.3 | 113.6 | 59.0 | 48.4 | 8.5 | 35.1 |
| OhioJan 17, 2026 · home | W 76–71 | 189 | 113.6 | 106.2 | 66.9 | 50.0 | 15.0 | 28.1 |
| AkronJan 14, 2026 · road | L 77–87 | 75 | 111.9 | 126.4 | 68.8 | 55.4 | 14.5 | 22.6 |
| UMassJan 10, 2026 · road | L 71–79 | 177 | 103.4 | 115.1 | 68.7 | 51.8 | 14.6 | 18.2 |
| E MichiganJan 7, 2026 · home | L 52–74 | 274 | 90.5 | 128.7 | 57.5 | 38.2 | 12.2 | 20.6 |
| BuffaloJan 3, 2026 · road | L 72–85 | 277 | 111.2 | 131.3 | 64.7 | 48.2 | 18.5 | 37.1 |
| EarlhamDec 30, 2025 · home | W 93–30 | Unrated | 137.1 | 44.2 | 67.8 | 71.6 | 10.3 | 21.4 |
| Miami OHDec 20, 2025 · home | L 77–86 | 119 | 110.0 | 122.9 | 70.0 | 55.3 | 10.0 | 12.5 |
| CampbellDec 14, 2025 · road | L 64–69 | 208 | 91.9 | 99.1 | 69.6 | 42.4 | 20.1 | 31.6 |
| S Dakota StDec 10, 2025 · home | L 64–68 | 161 | 101.0 | 107.3 | 63.4 | 41.0 | 11.0 | 32.5 |
| EvansvilleDec 4, 2025 · road | L 52–64 | 302 | 77.5 | 95.4 | 67.1 | 37.5 | 20.9 | 22.0 |
| Le MoyneNov 30, 2025 · neutral | W 96–85 | 316 | 139.3 | 123.4 | 68.9 | 57.6 | 16.0 | 48.7 |
| LafayetteNov 29, 2025 · road | L 37–55 | 319 | 60.1 | 89.3 | 61.6 | 24.6 | 17.9 | 28.0 |
| MonmouthNov 28, 2025 · neutral | L 73–80 | 211 | 109.9 | 120.4 | 66.4 | 53.9 | 15.1 | 24.3 |
| Indiana StNov 23, 2025 · road | L 52–70 | 140 | 80.2 | 108.0 | 64.8 | 36.9 | 20.1 | 34.1 |
| Little RockNov 16, 2025 · home | L 62–68 | 275 | 92.4 | 101.3 | 67.1 | 52.1 | 22.3 | 14.3 |
| WisconsinNov 12, 2025 · road | L 55–86 | 21 | 80.4 | 125.8 | 68.4 | 40.6 | 20.5 | 21.1 |
| MansfieldNov 8, 2025 · home | W 84–54 | Unrated | 106.8 | 68.7 | 78.6 | 55.6 | 16.5 | 27.0 |
| LouisianaNov 4, 2025 · home | W 75–64 | 297 | 116.7 | 99.6 | 64.3 | 60.9 | 17.1 | 28.6 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armoni ZeiglerG | 31 | 32.4 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 50.7 | 24.5% | 31 | 1.2331 games | 9431 games |
| Mason JonesF | 31 | 30.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 47.6 | 8.8% | 31 | 2.1631 games | 6531 games |
| Davion HillG | 31 | 26.9 | 14.0 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 55.1 | 28.2% | 31 | 1.4431 games | 10931 games |
| Elmore James IVG | 31 | 23.9 | 7.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49.2 | 18.9% | 31 | 1.4231 games | 10631 games |
| Devon BarnesG | 31 | 20.9 | 9.1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 52.1 | 24.8% | 31 | 1.9731 games | 12731 games |
| Preston CopelandF | 30 | 18.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 57.0 | 13.1% | 30 | 0.4230 games | 030 games |
| Juwan MaxeyG | 24 | 17.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 42.5 | 24.2% | 24 | 1.2024 games | 12724 games |
| Kayden FishF | 23 | 18.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 53.8 | 21.8% | 23 | 0.5923 games | 2223 games |
| Cam DensonF | 26 | 15.9 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 44.7 | 15.0% | 26 | 0.6926 games | 1326 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Ball State?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
15Source-listed players
14Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 8 | 3,794 | 3,794 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 6 | 2,456 | 2,456 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,250 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
15 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armoni Zeigler →G | Same programBall State Cardinals | 32.4 | 12.5 | 50.7% |
| Mason Jones →F | Same programBall State Cardinals | 30.9 | 4.2 | 47.6% |
| Davion Hill →G | Same programBall State Cardinals | 26.9 | 14.0 | 55.1% |
| Elmore James IV →G | Same programBall State Cardinals | 23.9 | 7.8 | 49.2% |
| Devon Barnes →G | Same programBall State Cardinals | 20.9 | 9.1 | 52.1% |
| Preston Copeland →F | Same programBall State Cardinals | 18.7 | 4.6 | 57.0% |
| Juwan Maxey →G | Same programBall State Cardinals | 17.7 | 6.3 | 42.5% |
| Kayden Fish →F | Same programBall State Cardinals | 18.4 | 7.2 | 53.8% |
| Cam Denson →F | Same programBall State Cardinals | 15.9 | 3.0 | 44.7% |
| Jai Anthoni Bearden →F | Same programBall State Cardinals | 6.2 | 2.2 | 69.2% |
| Joey Hart →G | Same programBall State Cardinals | 19.2 | 9.0 | 69.8% |
| Kody Clancy →G | Same programBall State Cardinals | 6.8 | 1.6 | 67.1% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Ball State vs GA Southern
71.0Ball State
76.0GA Southern
GA Southern win estimate67.0%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin5.0
Projected total146.9
80% home-margin range-10.9 to 20.9
Estimated possessions68.3
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 2.5 pts
GA Southern attack 51.1% · Ball State defense 52.1%Ball State attack 49.0% · GA Southern defense 52.5%
Ball securityAway 1.9 pts
GA Southern attack 17.2% · Ball State defense 16.8%Ball State attack 16.8% · GA Southern defense 18.3%
Second chancesHome 4.6 pts
GA Southern attack 29.2% · Ball State defense 30.3%Ball State attack 27.0% · GA Southern defense 32.7%
Free-throw pressureHome 5.4 pts
GA Southern attack 33.5% · Ball State defense 32.2%Ball State attack 37.5% · GA Southern defense 41.6%
Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Indiana St vs Ball State
74.3Indiana St
70.8Ball State
Ball State win estimate44.7%
Model signalToss-up
Projected home margin-3.4
Projected total145.1
80% home-margin range-19.4 to 12.5
Estimated possessions68.3
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 4.5 pts
Ball State attack 49.0% · Indiana St defense 50.6%Indiana St attack 54.9% · Ball State defense 52.1%
Ball securityHome 0.5 pts
Ball State attack 16.8% · Indiana St defense 15.9%Indiana St attack 18.2% · Ball State defense 16.8%
Second chancesHome 2.4 pts
Ball State attack 27.0% · Indiana St defense 28.8%Indiana St attack 26.2% · Ball State defense 30.3%
Free-throw pressureHome 5.4 pts
Ball State attack 37.5% · Indiana St defense 31.7%Indiana St attack 32.6% · Ball State defense 32.2%
Worthen Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Brescia vs Ball State
67.7Brescia
70.3Ball State
Ball State win estimate61.1%
Exploratory cold-start estimate · at least one program is outside the trained field. Range is calibrated wider from held-out games; this estimate is not registered as a primary model forecast.
Model signalLean
Projected home margin2.6
Projected total138.0
80% home-margin range-45.1 to 50.4
Estimated possessions67.5
Worthen Arena
Cold-start estimate · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →