A relative strength
Turnovers forced
18.1% · rank 105 of 366 · 32 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Alcorn St
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.353
-17.5 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
9–232025–26 recorded finals
97.4Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
114.9Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.8Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Alcorn St.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
9–2332 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 69.4Mean opponent adj. net -6.4 · 32 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
47.7%32 games · higher is betterRank 337 / 366 · 8th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
55.0%32 games · lower is betterRank 344 / 366 · 6th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
19.6%32 games · lower is betterRank 344 / 366 · 6th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
18.1%32 games · higher is betterRank 105 / 366 · 72th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
26.9%32 games · higher is betterRank 313 / 366 · 15th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
35.5%32 games · lower is betterRank 356 / 366 · 3th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
31.8%32 games · higher is betterRank 262 / 366 · 28th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
39.4%32 games · lower is betterRank 303 / 366 · 17th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 96.0 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 115.1 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 46.5% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 58.0% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 33.3% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.0% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 33.7% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 35.1% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 70.8% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 72.7% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 46.6% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 55.7% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,242 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Free-throw attempt rate
31.8% · rank 262 of 366 · 32 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
A closer look
Turnover rate
19.6% · rank 344 of 366 · 32 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Opponent offensive rebound rate
35.5% · rank 356 of 366 · 32 games
Which matchups demand an extra box-out assignment?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 8 times in the selected window; Alcorn St won 5. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 10, 2026 · neutral vs Prairie View · L 56–65 · offense 84.2 / defense 97.7
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prairie ViewMar 10, 2026 · neutral | L 56–65 | 336 | 84.2 | 97.7 | 66.5 | 38.3 | 16.5 | 19.4 |
| Alabama StMar 9, 2026 · neutral | W 77–65 | 322 | 109.4 | 92.4 | 70.4 | 49.1 | 14.2 | 21.9 |
| AR-Pine BluffMar 6, 2026 · home | L 48–83 | 357 | 64.5 | 111.6 | 74.4 | 33.9 | 22.9 | 19.5 |
| Miss Valley StMar 4, 2026 · home | W 67–64 | 365 | 103.7 | 99.1 | 64.6 | 48.0 | 17.0 | 32.1 |
| Prairie ViewFeb 28, 2026 · road | L 51–72 | 336 | 72.5 | 102.3 | 70.4 | 35.5 | 19.9 | 12.8 |
| Texas SouthernFeb 27, 2026 · road | L 87–92 | 320 | 109.3 | 115.6 | 70.8 | 50.0 | 15.1 | 29.3 |
| Jackson StFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 83–65 | 345 | 115.8 | 90.7 | 71.7 | 46.6 | 15.3 | 42.1 |
| Florida A&MFeb 17, 2026 · home | L 78–86 | 335 | 109.0 | 120.1 | 71.6 | 50.9 | 15.4 | 26.7 |
| BethuneFeb 14, 2026 · home | W 57–55 | 301 | 89.3 | 86.2 | 63.8 | 47.9 | 21.9 | 25.9 |
| Miss Valley StFeb 10, 2026 · road | W 74–66 | 365 | 126.0 | 112.4 | 58.7 | 63.8 | 6.8 | 12.0 |
| AR-Pine BluffFeb 7, 2026 · road | L 77–84 | 357 | 116.2 | 126.7 | 66.3 | 58.9 | 15.1 | 21.4 |
| GramblingFeb 3, 2026 · home | L 50–74 | 307 | 79.5 | 117.7 | 62.9 | 36.5 | 14.3 | 21.6 |
| SouthernJan 31, 2026 · home | W 78–73 | 282 | 120.0 | 112.4 | 65.0 | 67.3 | 23.1 | 26.1 |
| BethuneJan 27, 2026 · road | L 73–82 | 301 | 103.5 | 116.3 | 70.5 | 48.5 | 12.8 | 30.0 |
| Florida A&MJan 24, 2026 · road | L 58–66 | 335 | 87.4 | 99.4 | 66.4 | 46.1 | 25.6 | 25.8 |
| Prairie ViewJan 19, 2026 · home | W 76–75 | 336 | 108.9 | 107.4 | 69.8 | 45.0 | 18.6 | 47.6 |
| Texas SouthernJan 17, 2026 · home | L 71–72 | 320 | 109.6 | 111.1 | 64.8 | 48.1 | 17.0 | 28.1 |
| Alabama StJan 13, 2026 · road | L 66–81 | 322 | 92.3 | 113.3 | 71.5 | 44.3 | 19.6 | 26.3 |
| Alabama A&MJan 10, 2026 · road | W 64–62 | 346 | 99.0 | 95.9 | 64.6 | 46.6 | 13.9 | 25.7 |
| Jackson StJan 3, 2026 · road | L 86–89 | 345 | 122.6 | 126.9 | 70.1 | 58.1 | 14.3 | 34.2 |
| Ole MissDec 30, 2025 · road | L 43–79 | 54 | 64.2 | 118.0 | 67.0 | 28.1 | 16.4 | 17.8 |
| BaylorDec 20, 2025 · road | L 56–113 | 33 | 71.7 | 144.6 | 78.1 | 33.8 | 17.9 | 26.4 |
| Iowa StateDec 4, 2025 · road | L 68–132 | 5 | 84.6 | 164.3 | 80.3 | 55.4 | 33.6 | 24.1 |
| Louisiana TechNov 29, 2025 · road | L 58–83 | 156 | 91.9 | 131.5 | 63.1 | 42.1 | 20.6 | 38.1 |
| Indiana StNov 28, 2025 · neutral | W 81–74 | 140 | 101.6 | 92.8 | 79.7 | 55.6 | 25.1 | 38.2 |
| OklahomaNov 23, 2025 · road | L 53–72 | 38 | 77.3 | 105.0 | 68.6 | 45.3 | 27.7 | 20.0 |
| LSUNov 19, 2025 · road | L 81–107 | 74 | 111.1 | 146.8 | 72.9 | 56.7 | 17.8 | 35.1 |
| HowardNov 14, 2025 · road | L 64–72 | 223 | 95.7 | 107.7 | 66.9 | 46.6 | 16.5 | 21.4 |
| MarylandNov 12, 2025 · road | L 64–84 | 63 | 88.9 | 116.6 | 72.0 | 52.8 | 29.2 | 25.8 |
| MinnesotaNov 8, 2025 · road | L 50–95 | 91 | 71.6 | 136.0 | 69.9 | 36.6 | 22.9 | 24.4 |
| South AlabamaNov 7, 2025 · road | L 70–76 | 165 | 97.2 | 105.5 | 72.0 | 55.5 | 25.0 | 23.3 |
| Florida StNov 5, 2025 · road | L 76–108 | 81 | 100.2 | 142.4 | 75.9 | 58.8 | 27.7 | 29.0 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick WoodardSF | 32 | 28.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 48.3 | 18.6% | 32 | 0.8032 games | 10432 games |
| Shane LancasterG | 32 | 28.6 | 10.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 56.8 | 19.2% | 32 | 1.8232 games | 14232 games |
| Jameel MorrisPG | 30 | 29.5 | 11.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 53.2 | 21.9% | 30 | 1.3230 games | 6930 games |
| Tycen McDanielsF | 32 | 27.2 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 57.9 | 24.3% | 32 | 0.3932 games | 832 games |
| Davian WilliamsPG | 32 | 26.4 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 46.7 | 19.1% | 32 | 0.8632 games | 12032 games |
| Omari HamiltonF | 32 | 21.4 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 52.4 | 20.6% | 32 | 0.4232 games | 4832 games |
| Travis RobertsSG | 31 | 16.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 42.2 | 14.7% | 31 | 0.6931 games | 7931 games |
| Bryson CalamesePG | 31 | 11.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 43.8 | 20.8% | 31 | 1.0931 games | 2831 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Alcorn St?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
13Source-listed players
11Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
100%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 8 | 3,699 | 3,699 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 5 | 2,726 | 2,726 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (6,425 minutes).
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
13 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Woodard →SF | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 28.7 | 8.6 | 48.3% |
| Shane Lancaster →G | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 28.6 | 10.8 | 56.8% |
| Jameel Morris →PG | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 29.5 | 11.2 | 53.2% |
| Tycen McDaniels →F | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 27.2 | 12.0 | 57.9% |
| Davian Williams →PG | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 26.4 | 7.8 | 46.7% |
| Omari Hamilton →F | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 21.4 | 7.8 | 52.4% |
| Travis Roberts →SG | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 16.5 | 3.6 | 42.2% |
| Bryson Calamese →PG | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 11.1 | 3.0 | 43.8% |
| Mike Jones →SG | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 15.0 | 3.5 | 41.6% |
| Jeremy Ellis →PF | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 6.3 | 1.0 | 48.2% |
| William Henderson →F | Same programAlcorn State Braves | 10.4 | 2.6 | 42.2% |
| Alex Hawkins →SG | No prior appearance observedNo prior program listed | — | — | — |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Alcorn St vs Iowa State
53.7Alcorn St
88.1Iowa State
Iowa State win estimate98.1%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin34.4
Projected total141.7
80% home-margin range18.4 to 50.3
Estimated possessions67.7
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 1.2 pts
Iowa State attack 55.3% · Alcorn St defense 54.8%Alcorn St attack 47.7% · Iowa State defense 48.3%
Ball securityAway 2.4 pts
Iowa State attack 15.7% · Alcorn St defense 17.9%Alcorn St attack 18.0% · Iowa State defense 22.5%
Second chancesAway 2.0 pts
Iowa State attack 33.8% · Alcorn St defense 33.5%Alcorn St attack 29.1% · Iowa State defense 26.7%
Free-throw pressureHome 0.4 pts
Iowa State attack 36.3% · Alcorn St defense 35.8%Alcorn St attack 31.9% · Iowa State defense 31.7%
Hilton Coliseum
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →