A relative strength
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
23.8% · rank 4 of 366 · 33 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
North Carolina
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.22
+20.1 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
24–92025–26 recorded finals
118.2Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
98.1Adjusted defense · lower is better
69.8Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on North Carolina.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
24–933 recorded games · 33 paired efficiency samples · pace 68.8Mean opponent adj. net 10.1 · 33 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
54.3%33 games · higher is betterRank 72 / 366 · 81th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
48.3%33 games · lower is betterRank 57 / 366 · 85th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
13.9%33 games · lower is betterRank 22 / 366 · 94th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
13.6%33 games · higher is betterRank 349 / 366 · 5th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
31.2%33 games · higher is betterRank 180 / 366 · 51th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
27.8%33 games · lower is betterRank 70 / 366 · 81th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
37.1%33 games · higher is betterRank 118 / 366 · 68th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
23.8%33 games · lower is betterRank 4 / 366 · 99th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 115.5 | 33 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 103.8 | 33 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 56.5% | 33 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 46.2% | 33 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.2% | 33 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.7% | 33 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 42.2% | 33 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 37.0% | 33 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 68.2% | 33 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 70.0% | 33 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 57.2% | 33 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 47.8% | 33 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,273 source possession rows across 33 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Turnover rate
13.9% · rank 22 of 366 · 33 games
Where do turnovers occur under pressure, and who can relieve that pressure?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
31.2% · rank 180 of 366 · 33 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Turnovers forced
13.6% · rank 349 of 366 · 33 games
Which defensive actions produce takeaways, and what shots do they concede?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 10 times in the selected window; North Carolina won 7. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 19, 2026 · neutral vs VCU · L 78–82 · offense 101.9 / defense 107.1
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 33 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCUMar 19, 2026 · neutral | L 78–82 | 39 | 101.9 | 107.1 | 68.0 | 47.1 | 10.5 | 25.6 |
| ClemsonMar 13, 2026 · neutral | L 79–80 | 26 | 114.5 | 115.9 | 69.0 | 56.6 | 14.5 | 29.7 |
| DukeMar 7, 2026 · road | L 61–76 | 1 | 93.8 | 116.9 | 65.0 | 53.8 | 21.5 | 17.2 |
| ClemsonMar 4, 2026 · home | W 67–63 | 26 | 102.3 | 96.2 | 65.5 | 48.3 | 13.7 | 23.7 |
| Virginia TechMar 1, 2026 · home | W 89–82 | 79 | 128.5 | 118.4 | 69.2 | 63.5 | 18.8 | 40.7 |
| LouisvilleFeb 24, 2026 · home | W 77–74 | 32 | 115.6 | 111.1 | 66.6 | 60.7 | 13.5 | 21.9 |
| SyracuseFeb 21, 2026 · road | W 77–64 | 102 | 113.3 | 94.2 | 67.9 | 57.4 | 14.7 | 26.5 |
| NC StateFeb 18, 2026 · road | L 58–82 | 45 | 90.2 | 127.6 | 64.3 | 35.8 | 18.7 | 39.5 |
| PittFeb 14, 2026 · home | W 79–65 | 71 | 120.7 | 99.3 | 65.4 | 54.2 | 6.1 | 18.8 |
| MiamiFeb 11, 2026 · road | L 66–75 | 57 | 95.2 | 108.2 | 69.3 | 46.0 | 15.9 | 23.7 |
| DukeFeb 7, 2026 · home | W 71–68 | 1 | 111.4 | 106.7 | 63.8 | 54.5 | 11.0 | 12.5 |
| SyracuseFeb 3, 2026 · home | W 87–77 | 102 | 120.3 | 106.5 | 72.3 | 55.4 | 15.2 | 37.5 |
| Georgia TechJan 31, 2026 · road | W 91–75 | 137 | 126.6 | 104.3 | 71.9 | 50.6 | 2.8 | 32.6 |
| VirginiaJan 24, 2026 · road | W 85–80 | 35 | 125.0 | 117.7 | 68.0 | 57.4 | 5.9 | 22.2 |
| Notre DameJan 22, 2026 · home | W 91–69 | 114 | 131.8 | 99.9 | 69.1 | 61.5 | 11.6 | 32.3 |
| CaliforniaJan 17, 2026 · road | L 78–84 | 104 | 110.7 | 119.2 | 70.4 | 54.5 | 15.6 | 27.8 |
| StanfordJan 15, 2026 · road | L 90–95 | 77 | 123.2 | 130.0 | 73.1 | 63.6 | 15.1 | 27.6 |
| Wake ForestJan 10, 2026 · home | W 87–84 | 60 | 122.1 | 117.9 | 71.2 | 60.9 | 19.7 | 43.3 |
| SMUJan 3, 2026 · road | L 83–97 | 51 | 119.7 | 139.9 | 69.3 | 58.3 | 14.4 | 28.1 |
| Florida StDec 31, 2025 · home | W 79–66 | 81 | 113.5 | 94.9 | 69.6 | 47.8 | 11.5 | 39.0 |
| East CarolinaDec 23, 2025 · home | W 99–51 | 222 | 130.0 | 67.0 | 76.2 | 63.5 | 15.8 | 40.5 |
| Ohio StateDec 20, 2025 · neutral | W 71–70 | 25 | 109.9 | 108.4 | 64.6 | 50.8 | 10.8 | 31.6 |
| ETSUDec 17, 2025 · home | W 77–58 | 141 | 126.7 | 95.5 | 60.8 | 62.0 | 11.5 | 29.2 |
| SC UpstateDec 13, 2025 · home | W 80–62 | 309 | 125.1 | 97.0 | 63.9 | 60.0 | 9.4 | 23.3 |
| GeorgetownDec 7, 2025 · home | W 81–61 | 105 | 113.5 | 85.5 | 71.3 | 55.8 | 12.6 | 21.9 |
| KentuckyDec 3, 2025 · road | W 67–64 | 20 | 105.0 | 100.3 | 63.8 | 45.3 | 18.8 | 47.6 |
| Michigan StNov 27, 2025 · neutral | L 58–74 | 13 | 95.6 | 122.0 | 60.7 | 41.8 | 13.2 | 32.4 |
| St BonaventureNov 25, 2025 · neutral | W 85–70 | 125 | 119.2 | 98.2 | 71.3 | 58.2 | 18.2 | 33.3 |
| NavyNov 19, 2025 · home | W 73–61 | 182 | 104.2 | 87.1 | 70.0 | 50.0 | 18.6 | 26.5 |
| NC CentralNov 15, 2025 · home | W 97–53 | 333 | 138.4 | 75.6 | 70.1 | 64.5 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| RadfordNov 12, 2025 · home | W 89–74 | 213 | 109.2 | 90.8 | 81.5 | 44.6 | 13.5 | 38.3 |
| KansasNov 8, 2025 · home | W 87–74 | 17 | 123.2 | 104.8 | 70.6 | 57.6 | 15.6 | 44.4 |
| C ArkansasNov 4, 2025 · home | W 94–54 | 259 | 124.7 | 71.7 | 75.4 | 58.5 | 15.9 | 37.5 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri VeesaarC | 31 | 31.4 | 17.0 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 66.4 | 23.3% | 31 | 1.2331 games | 9431 games |
| Jarin StevensonF | 33 | 25.8 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 58.5 | 15.2% | 33 | 1.0733 games | 8833 games |
| Luka BogavacG | 33 | 24.4 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 52.9 | 21.5% | 33 | 1.9233 games | 14933 games |
| Seth TrimbleG | 24 | 32.5 | 14.0 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 54.8 | 22.1% | 24 | 2.1524 games | 6324 games |
| Caleb WilsonF | 24 | 31.5 | 19.8 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 62.6 | 28.2% | 24 | 1.3624 games | 2724 games |
| Derek DixonG | 33 | 22.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 52.5 | 16.8% | 33 | 2.3733 games | 12633 games |
| Kyan EvansG | 33 | 17.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 45.7 | 15.5% | 33 | 2.2233 games | 10533 games |
| Jonathan PowellG | 33 | 16.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 51.7 | 15.3% | 33 | 2.1833 games | 10433 games |
| Zayden HighF | 29 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 53.7 | 21.5% | 29 | 0.7829 games | 1629 games |
| Jaydon YoungG | 31 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 43.1 | 15.8% | 31 | 1.3831 games | 4631 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around North Carolina?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
13Source-listed players
13Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
62%Prior minutes represented
Role workload watch
Which source-listed role is represented?
Prior minutes are grouped by the source-reported position on the current listing. “Unrepresented” means prior minutes not attached to a same-program listing in this release; it does not establish a departure, transfer, eligibility or expected role.
| Role | Listed | Prior minutes | Returning minutes | Incoming prior minutes | Returning share | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard | 8 | 2,938 | 2,938 | — | 100% | — |
| Forward | 4 | 1,172 | 1,172 | — | 100% | — |
| Center | 1 | 6 | 6 | — | 100% | — |
0 listed players have no recognized source position. The workload denominator is the matched prior-production sample (4,116 minutes).
Dated school publications
11 announced additions
| Player | Evidence | Prior program | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Latest publication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandros SamodurovInternational addition | Addition announced ↗UNC named Alexandros Samodurov as a newcomer in its August roster update. | Panathinaikos | — | — | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
| Angelo Brizzi →College transfer | Addition announced ↗UNC included Angelo Brizzi among transfers in its August roster update. | BuffaloBuffalo · 2025–26 | 29.8 | 14.5 | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
| Cade BennermanCollege transfer | Addition announced ↗UNC included Cade Bennerman among transfers in its August roster update. The school reports a prior redshirt year. | Northwestern | — | — | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
| Cameron Fens →College transfer | Addition announced ↗UNC included Cameron Fens among transfers in its August roster update. | South DakotaSouth Dakota · 2025–26 | 25.2 | 14.4 | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
| Kevin ThomasPrep addition | Addition announced ↗UNC named Kevin Thomas as a newcomer in its August roster update. | Prep addition | — | — | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
| Malloy SmithPrep addition | Addition announced ↗UNC named Malloy Smith as a newcomer in its August roster update. | Prep addition | — | — | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
| Matt Able →College transfer | Addition announced ↗UNC included Matt Able among transfers in its August roster update. | NC StateNC State · 2025–26 | 21.7 | 8.8 | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
| Maximo AdamsPrep addition | Addition announced ↗UNC named Maximo Adams as a newcomer in its August roster update. | Prep addition | — | — | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
| Neo AvdalasCollege transfer | Addition announced ↗UNC included Neo Avdalas among transfers in its August roster update. | Virginia Tech | — | — | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
| Sayon KeitaInternational addition | Addition announced ↗UNC named Sayon Keita as a newcomer in its August roster update. | FC Barcelona U18 | — | — | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
| Terrence Brown →College transfer | Addition announced ↗UNC included Terrence Brown among transfers in its August roster update. | UtahUtah · 2025–26 | 31.5 | 19.9 | Aug 21, 20261 dated record |
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
13 source-listed players. Prior rates below are attached by exact source ID where available; missing values remain missing.
| Player | Observation | Prior MPG | Prior PPG | Prior TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarin Stevenson →F | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 25.8 | 8.1 | 58.5% |
| Luka Bogavac →G | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 24.4 | 9.8 | 52.9% |
| Derek Dixon →G | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 22.3 | 6.5 | 52.5% |
| Kyan Evans →G | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 17.6 | 4.0 | 45.7% |
| Jonathan Powell →G | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 16.4 | 4.8 | 51.7% |
| Zayden High →F | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 9.1 | 3.4 | 53.7% |
| Jaydon Young →G | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 7.3 | 1.8 | 43.1% |
| James Brown →F | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 5.6 | 1.2 | 54.1% |
| Isaiah Denis →G | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 3.4 | 1.9 | 63.5% |
| Elijah Davis →G | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 1.7 | 0.5 | 37.5% |
| Evan Smith →G | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 1.6 | 1.4 | 71.4% |
| John Holbrook →F | Same programNorth Carolina Tar Heels | 1.6 | 0.2 | 25.6% |
Showing the 12 highest prior-minute records. Open the full roster board for every source-listed player.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
Georgia vs North Carolina
76.0Georgia
82.4North Carolina
North Carolina win estimate70.3%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin6.4
Projected total158.3
80% home-margin range-9.5 to 22.3
Estimated possessions72.2
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityHome 0.0 pts
North Carolina attack 54.4% · Georgia defense 48.7%Georgia attack 53.4% · North Carolina defense 47.7%
Ball securityHome 4.6 pts
North Carolina attack 14.6% · Georgia defense 18.0%Georgia attack 16.5% · North Carolina defense 15.3%
Second chancesAway 7.0 pts
North Carolina attack 31.7% · Georgia defense 30.5%Georgia attack 33.3% · North Carolina defense 25.2%
Free-throw pressureAway 1.9 pts
North Carolina attack 37.9% · Georgia defense 30.0%Georgia attack 37.9% · North Carolina defense 28.1%
Dean E. Smith Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Butler vs North Carolina
72.2Butler
83.3North Carolina
North Carolina win estimate79.9%
Model signalStrong lean
Projected home margin11.1
Projected total155.4
80% home-margin range-4.8 to 27.0
Estimated possessions70.6
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 0.9 pts
North Carolina attack 54.4% · Butler defense 50.2%Butler attack 52.9% · North Carolina defense 47.7%
Ball securityHome 1.3 pts
North Carolina attack 14.6% · Butler defense 15.4%Butler attack 15.9% · North Carolina defense 15.3%
Second chancesAway 1.3 pts
North Carolina attack 31.7% · Butler defense 28.3%Butler attack 29.8% · North Carolina defense 25.2%
Free-throw pressureHome 2.6 pts
North Carolina attack 37.9% · Butler defense 25.8%Butler attack 37.6% · North Carolina defense 28.1%
Dean E. Smith Center
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
North Carolina vs Georgetown
78.1North Carolina
71.9Georgetown
Georgetown win estimate37.4%
Model signalLean
Projected home margin-6.2
Projected total150.1
80% home-margin range-22.1 to 9.7
Estimated possessions69.4
Why the model tiltsfour-factor edge
Shot qualityAway 1.1 pts
Georgetown attack 50.7% · North Carolina defense 47.7%North Carolina attack 54.4% · Georgetown defense 50.3%
Ball securityAway 3.9 pts
Georgetown attack 16.6% · North Carolina defense 15.3%North Carolina attack 14.6% · Georgetown defense 17.3%
Second chancesHome 5.1 pts
Georgetown attack 32.2% · North Carolina defense 25.2%North Carolina attack 31.7% · Georgetown defense 29.7%
Free-throw pressureHome 1.6 pts
Georgetown attack 34.5% · North Carolina defense 28.1%North Carolina attack 37.9% · Georgetown defense 33.2%
Capital One Arena
Preseason baseline · roster changes are not model features.
No verified pregame market line imported. Check the forecast record →
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →