A relative strength
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
27.7% · rank 36 of 366 · 32 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Montana St
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.163
+0.4 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
18–142025–26 recorded finals
106.9Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
106.5Adjusted defense · lower is better
67.4Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Montana St.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
18–1432 recorded games · 32 paired efficiency samples · pace 67.6Mean opponent adj. net -1.9 · 29 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
55.1%32 games · higher is betterRank 43 / 366 · 88th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
50.6%32 games · lower is betterRank 167 / 366 · 55th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
14.7%32 games · lower is betterRank 53 / 366 · 86th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
16.5%32 games · higher is betterRank 204 / 366 · 44th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
28.2%32 games · higher is betterRank 283 / 366 · 23th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
27.2%32 games · lower is betterRank 56 / 366 · 85th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
30.0%32 games · higher is betterRank 305 / 366 · 17th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
27.7%32 games · lower is betterRank 36 / 366 · 90th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 114.4 | 32 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 104.9 | 32 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 54.6% | 32 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.0% | 32 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 37.1% | 32 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 33.3% | 32 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 45.4% | 32 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 34.0% | 32 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 74.5% | 32 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 76.2% | 32 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 41.7% | 32 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 43.1% | 32 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,163 source possession rows across 32 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Effective FG%
55.1% · rank 43 of 366 · 32 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
28.2% · rank 283 of 366 · 32 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
A closer look
Free-throw attempt rate
30.0% · rank 305 of 366 · 32 games
Who generates contact, and how do opponents keep them off the line?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 13 times in the selected window; Montana St won 4. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Mar 9, 2026 · neutral vs Idaho · L 74–78 · offense 109.8 / defense 115.7
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 32 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IdahoMar 9, 2026 · neutral | L 74–78 | 214 | 109.8 | 115.7 | 67.4 | 53.1 | 8.9 | 21.1 |
| N ArizonaMar 3, 2026 · road | W 76–65 | 308 | 124.6 | 106.6 | 61.0 | 61.8 | 11.5 | 26.7 |
| Sacramento StFeb 28, 2026 · home | W 82–61 | 314 | 123.5 | 91.9 | 66.4 | 63.1 | 19.6 | 45.2 |
| Portland StFeb 27, 2026 · home | W 84–69 | 170 | 119.3 | 98.0 | 70.4 | 65.2 | 15.6 | 13.6 |
| Idaho StFeb 21, 2026 · road | L 76–91 | 239 | 104.9 | 125.6 | 72.5 | 48.2 | 11.0 | 17.6 |
| Weber StFeb 20, 2026 · road | L 79–82 | 212 | 108.5 | 112.7 | 64.7 | 56.0 | 16.5 | 18.8 |
| MontanaFeb 15, 2026 · road | W 82–71 | 178 | 124.2 | 107.5 | 66.0 | 59.6 | 7.6 | 18.2 |
| E WashingtonFeb 8, 2026 · home | L 71–72 | 199 | 109.5 | 111.0 | 64.9 | 49.1 | 7.7 | 21.2 |
| IdahoFeb 6, 2026 · home | W 73–66 | 214 | 100.3 | 90.7 | 72.8 | 46.1 | 12.4 | 13.3 |
| Portland StJan 31, 2026 · road | L 54–63 | 170 | 87.9 | 102.5 | 61.4 | 38.4 | 21.2 | 35.9 |
| Sacramento StJan 30, 2026 · road | L 80–83 | 314 | 111.4 | 115.5 | 71.8 | 52.3 | 18.1 | 34.1 |
| Weber StJan 25, 2026 · home | W 91–88 | 212 | 129.1 | 124.8 | 70.5 | 62.1 | 17.0 | 37.5 |
| Idaho StJan 23, 2026 · home | W 74–62 | 239 | 118.1 | 99.0 | 62.7 | 52.3 | 9.6 | 34.3 |
| N ColoradoJan 20, 2026 · road | W 73–68 | 149 | 111.1 | 103.5 | 65.7 | 52.8 | 10.7 | 14.7 |
| MontanaJan 18, 2026 · home | W 76–67 | 178 | 107.0 | 94.3 | 71.1 | 49.2 | 14.1 | 27.0 |
| IdahoJan 10, 2026 · road | L 89–92 | 214 | 130.3 | 134.7 | 68.3 | 65.5 | 17.6 | 32.0 |
| E WashingtonJan 9, 2026 · road | W 68–64 | 199 | 105.4 | 99.2 | 64.5 | 53.1 | 26.3 | 40.7 |
| N ArizonaJan 4, 2026 · home | W 77–68 | 308 | 122.3 | 108.0 | 62.9 | 57.1 | 12.7 | 33.3 |
| N ColoradoJan 2, 2026 · home | W 89–75 | 149 | 123.8 | 104.4 | 71.9 | 60.3 | 9.7 | 21.9 |
| Northwest UDec 22, 2025 · home | W 93–54 | Unrated | 127.1 | 73.8 | 73.2 | 55.8 | 12.3 | 37.5 |
| Cal PolyDec 17, 2025 · road | W 83–80 | 246 | 115.6 | 111.4 | 71.8 | 50.0 | 11.1 | 31.8 |
| Oregon StDec 13, 2025 · road | L 57–67 | 139 | 88.8 | 104.3 | 64.2 | 42.1 | 17.1 | 28.2 |
| Oral RobertsDec 7, 2025 · road | L 68–72 | 300 | 105.8 | 112.0 | 64.3 | 51.8 | 21.8 | 40.0 |
| St Thomas (MN)Dec 4, 2025 · home | W 82–74 | 118 | 121.1 | 109.3 | 67.7 | 53.6 | 10.3 | 26.3 |
| Utah StateNov 29, 2025 · road | L 81–84 | 30 | 104.6 | 108.5 | 68.8 | 47.1 | 20.7 | 33.3 |
| Long Beach StNov 22, 2025 · road | W 78–72 | 265 | 113.0 | 104.3 | 69.1 | 55.2 | 13.0 | 21.9 |
| NobelNov 20, 2025 · neutral | W 92–55 | Unrated | 136.5 | 81.6 | 67.4 | 69.2 | 14.8 | 33.3 |
| Boise StNov 15, 2025 · road | L 58–62 | 50 | 91.6 | 97.9 | 63.3 | 44.1 | 14.2 | 24.3 |
| StanfordNov 13, 2025 · road | L 68–77 | 77 | 91.2 | 103.3 | 74.6 | 52.6 | 21.5 | 16.7 |
| DenverNov 9, 2025 · home | L 73–75 | 268 | 114.0 | 117.1 | 64.0 | 55.7 | 12.5 | 29.0 |
| NW IndianNov 6, 2025 · home | W 114–44 | Unrated | 166.2 | 64.1 | 68.6 | 80.1 | 16.0 | 52.0 |
| ColoradoNov 4, 2025 · road | L 78–84 | 69 | 113.4 | 122.1 | 68.8 | 58.0 | 16.0 | 21.4 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed MillerG | 32 | 34.5 | 14.9 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 62.5 | 20.0% | 32 | 2.3032 games | 21932 games |
| Patrick McMahonG | 29 | 29.2 | 13.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 52.8 | 25.9% | 29 | 1.2429 games | 5529 games |
| Jeremiah DavisG | 31 | 24.7 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 62.8 | 17.7% | 31 | 1.1431 games | 8531 games |
| Christian KingF | 28 | 27.3 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 53.5 | 25.7% | 28 | 0.6128 games | 15428 games |
| Chris HodgesF | 32 | 23.3 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 56.5 | 13.6% | 32 | 0.7932 games | 032 games |
| Davian BrownG | 21 | 25.0 | 12.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 62.9 | 23.4% | 21 | 1.4621 games | 12121 games |
| Seth AmunrudG | 24 | 21.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 61.5 | 15.9% | 24 | 1.0024 games | 8024 games |
| Jaden SteppeF | 32 | 15.7 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 59.9 | 19.0% | 32 | 0.8832 games | 4232 games |
| Howie KeeneG | 24 | 12.7 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 45.9 | 11.7% | 24 | 1.7524 games | 4824 games |
| Cavin HoldenG | 8 | 25.9 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 51.0 | 18.5% | 8 | 1.758 games | 428 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Montana St?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →