A relative strength
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
26.9% · rank 26 of 366 · 33 games
Which defenders can protect the paint without surrendering free throws?
← Program librarySource edition Sep 12, 2026
The program dossier / men’s basketball
Minnesota
2025–26 performance, personnel and game context.
A starting point for 2026–27 preparation.
Independent preseason modelNo.91
+7.8 adjusted net
per 100 estimated possessions
15–182025–26 recorded finals
110.5Adjusted offense · 2026–27 baseline
102.7Adjusted defense · lower is better
64.7Model tempo · possessions / 40 min
Publisher lens / exact source team ID
A second read on Minnesota.
Checking the attributed publisher rating…
01 / Both ends of the floor
The possession profile.
15–1833 recorded games · 33 paired efficiency samples · pace 62.9Mean opponent adj. net 9.6 · 33 rated opponents
Offense
Effective FG%
53.9%33 games · higher is betterRank 83 / 366 · 78th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent effective FG%
51.9%33 games · lower is betterRank 240 / 366 · 35th favorable percentileOffense
Turnover rate
16.5%33 games · lower is betterRank 175 / 366 · 52th favorable percentileDefense
Turnovers forced
16.9%33 games · higher is betterRank 176 / 366 · 52th favorable percentileOffense
Offensive rebound rate
26.8%33 games · higher is betterRank 322 / 366 · 12th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent offensive rebound rate
29.5%33 games · lower is betterRank 161 / 366 · 56th favorable percentileOffense
Free-throw attempt rate
35.8%33 games · higher is betterRank 161 / 366 · 56th favorable percentileDefense
Opponent free-throw attempt rate
26.9%33 games · lower is betterRank 26 / 366 · 93th favorable percentileShooting and ball-movement detail
| Metric | Observed rate | Games | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive efficiency | 109.1 | 33 | Points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Defensive efficiency | 107.7 | 33 | Opponent points per 100 estimated possessions. |
| Two-point FG% | 56.2% | 33 | (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Opponent two-point FG% | 51.8% | 33 | Opponent (FGM − 3PM) / (FGA − 3PA). |
| Three-point FG% | 34.2% | 33 | 3PM / 3PA. |
| Opponent three-point FG% | 34.7% | 33 | Opponent 3PM / 3PA. |
| Three-point attempt share | 47.1% | 33 | 3PA / FGA; a style measure, not a quality grade. |
| Opponent three-point attempt share | 41.4% | 33 | Opponent 3PA / FGA; a style measure. |
| Free-throw accuracy | 69.4% | 33 | FTM / FTA. |
| Opponent free-throw accuracy | 73.0% | 33 | Opponent FTM / FTA; not attributed to defensive skill. |
| Assisted field-goal share | 71.0% | 33 | Assists / FGM; describes recorded ball movement. |
| Opponent assisted FG share | 60.4% | 33 | Opponent assists / FGM. |
Window changes describe the historical sample; they do not refit the preseason model. Full-season ranks require 10 games. Percentiles compare qualifying programs in the model’s rated field. Source coverage can differ by metric.
NCAA source context / 2025–26
What did the possessions look like?
2,097 source possession rows across 33 recorded team-games. These are descriptive NCAA source aggregates: they do not assign individual credit or enter the forecast.
02 / The film queue
Turn a number into a question.
A relative strength
Effective FG%
53.9% · rank 83 of 366 · 33 games
Which actions create the team's efficient looks, and which personnel can reproduce them?
A closer look
Opponent effective FG%
51.9% · rank 240 of 366 · 33 games
What coverages and lineups account for the shot quality opponents receive?
A closer look
Offensive rebound rate
26.8% · rank 322 of 366 · 33 games
Who crashes the glass, and how does that affect transition defense?
These are stat-led film prompts, not verified explanations of a scheme. Lower-ranked factors can still be above average. A five-point-or-closer final occurred 11 times in the selected window; Minnesota won 4. That small-sample record is not a clutch-skill estimate.
03 / How the season moved
Read beyond the average.
● Offense● Opponent offenseRaw points / 100 possessions · game order
Apr 2, 2026 · neutral vs Baylor · L 48–67 · offense 80.7 / defense 112.7
Higher offense and lower opponent offense are better. Opponent strength and venue are not adjusted here. Missing paired boxes create gaps.
Open the game-by-game scouting log · 33 games
| Game / venue | Result | Current opponent rank | Off. eff. | Def. eff. | Pace | eFG% | TO% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BaylorApr 2, 2026 · neutral | L 48–67 | 33 | 80.7 | 112.7 | 59.5 | 41.8 | 13.5 | 14.3 |
| RutgersMar 12, 2026 · neutral | L 67–72 | 107 | 104.9 | 112.7 | 63.9 | 61.5 | 23.5 | 20.8 |
| NorthwesternMar 8, 2026 · home | W 67–66 | 53 | 121.5 | 119.7 | 55.1 | 61.4 | 20.0 | 31.8 |
| IndianaMar 4, 2026 · road | L 47–77 | 44 | 76.7 | 125.7 | 61.3 | 36.1 | 16.3 | 20.5 |
| UCLAFeb 28, 2026 · home | W 78–73 | 27 | 140.4 | 131.4 | 55.6 | 70.0 | 5.4 | 9.1 |
| MichiganFeb 25, 2026 · road | L 67–77 | 6 | 103.7 | 119.2 | 64.6 | 56.4 | 12.4 | 3.3 |
| RutgersFeb 21, 2026 · home | W 80–61 | 107 | 136.6 | 104.2 | 58.6 | 75.0 | 17.1 | 23.8 |
| OregonFeb 18, 2026 · road | W 61–44 | 61 | 101.9 | 73.5 | 59.9 | 48.2 | 21.7 | 37.1 |
| WashingtonFeb 15, 2026 · road | L 57–69 | 66 | 95.1 | 115.1 | 59.9 | 50.0 | 21.7 | 22.6 |
| MarylandFeb 8, 2026 · home | L 62–67 | 63 | 113.0 | 122.1 | 54.9 | 57.4 | 16.4 | 30.0 |
| Michigan StFeb 5, 2026 · home | W 76–73 | 13 | 120.8 | 116.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 | 9.5 | 10.3 |
| Penn StateFeb 1, 2026 · road | L 75–77 | 103 | 117.8 | 120.9 | 63.7 | 59.8 | 18.8 | 32.0 |
| WisconsinJan 29, 2026 · road | L 63–67 | 21 | 98.7 | 105.0 | 63.8 | 57.0 | 17.2 | 17.2 |
| NebraskaJan 24, 2026 · home | L 57–76 | 24 | 87.7 | 116.9 | 65.0 | 48.1 | 20.0 | 18.4 |
| Ohio StateJan 20, 2026 · road | L 74–82 | 25 | 105.4 | 116.8 | 62.4 | 46.6 | 12.8 | 23.7 |
| IllinoisJan 17, 2026 · road | L 67–77 | 7 | 108.5 | 124.7 | 61.7 | 49.2 | 11.3 | 30.6 |
| WisconsinJan 14, 2026 · home | L 75–78 | 21 | 116.3 | 121.0 | 64.5 | 56.7 | 7.8 | 12.9 |
| USCJan 10, 2026 · home | L 69–70 | 72 | 105.2 | 106.7 | 58.3 | 48.4 | 16.8 | 35.7 |
| IowaJan 7, 2026 · home | W 70–67 | 28 | 102.6 | 98.2 | 68.2 | 52.1 | 14.7 | 10.7 |
| NorthwesternJan 3, 2026 · road | W 84–78 | 53 | 127.4 | 118.3 | 65.9 | 60.8 | 16.7 | 34.8 |
| FDUDec 30, 2025 · home | W 60–43 | 328 | 98.9 | 70.9 | 60.7 | 47.4 | 19.8 | 33.3 |
| CampbellDec 21, 2025 · home | W 78–50 | 208 | 128.6 | 82.4 | 60.7 | 67.3 | 18.1 | 30.4 |
| Texas SouthernDec 14, 2025 · home | W 89–53 | 320 | 128.0 | 76.2 | 69.5 | 62.3 | 15.8 | 29.4 |
| PurdueDec 11, 2025 · road | L 57–85 | 9 | 87.3 | 130.2 | 65.3 | 41.1 | 13.8 | 13.5 |
| IndianaDec 4, 2025 · home | W 73–64 | 44 | 110.3 | 96.7 | 66.2 | 57.4 | 24.2 | 33.3 |
| Santa ClaraNov 29, 2025 · neutral | L 75–86 | 42 | 112.7 | 129.3 | 66.5 | 50.0 | 16.5 | 38.2 |
| StanfordNov 28, 2025 · neutral | L 68–72 | 77 | 106.2 | 112.4 | 64.1 | 61.1 | 21.9 | 24.0 |
| San FranciscoNov 22, 2025 · neutral | L 65–77 | 89 | 102.9 | 122.0 | 63.1 | 54.3 | 19.0 | 28.1 |
| Chicago StNov 19, 2025 · home | W 66–54 | 360 | 105.1 | 86.0 | 62.8 | 43.3 | 17.5 | 40.0 |
| Green BayNov 16, 2025 · home | W 72–65 | 284 | 100.8 | 91.0 | 63.5 | 47.3 | 11.2 | 26.8 |
| MissouriNov 13, 2025 · road | L 60–83 | 49 | 97.1 | 134.3 | 61.8 | 47.2 | 17.8 | 38.9 |
| Alcorn StNov 8, 2025 · home | W 95–50 | 353 | 136.0 | 71.6 | 69.9 | 52.5 | 17.2 | 57.6 |
| Gardner-WebbNov 4, 2025 · home | W 87–60 | 349 | 120.8 | 83.3 | 72.0 | 60.9 | 19.4 | 37.5 |
04 / The people behind the possessions
Personnel and workload.
2025–26 recorded affiliations, independent of the split selector. This is not a confirmed 2026–27 roster. Inspect roster observations →
| Player | GP | MIN/G | PTS/G | REB/G | AST/G | TS% | Est. usage | Usage games | AST/TO | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade TysonG | 32 | 36.7 | 19.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 65.0 | 25.7% | 32 | 1.3332 games | 17232 games |
| Isaac AsumaG | 33 | 34.3 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 51.5 | 21.0% | 33 | 1.7333 games | 19133 games |
| Langston ReynoldsG | 33 | 33.2 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 57.1 | 21.8% | 33 | 1.7433 games | 4333 games |
| Bobby DurkinF | 33 | 32.8 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 61.1 | 15.9% | 33 | 2.3533 games | 20433 games |
| Jaylen Crocker-JohnsonF | 24 | 31.5 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 52.4 | 25.3% | 24 | 1.0824 games | 13024 games |
| Grayson GroveF | 32 | 20.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 56.6 | 11.3% | 32 | 3.5332 games | 1932 games |
| Kai ShinholsterG | 31 | 13.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 39.7 | 11.6% | 31 | 2.6731 games | 4031 games |
Usage is a minutes-based estimate over the stated sample, not a direct measure of on-court possessions. Low-minute estimates are noisy. AST/TO is unavailable when recorded turnovers are zero; missing fields are never filled with zero.
05 / Recruiting evidence
What changed around Minnesota?
This panel keeps dated school publications, source-listed roster observations and prior college production in separate evidence lanes. A source record does not establish eligibility, availability or a future role.
0Source-listed players
0Same-program prior records
0Different-program records
—Prior minutes represented
No dated school announcement is in the selected review file for this program. The roster row below is observation-only; absence of a reviewed announcement does not mean the program made no move.
No announced additions are in the reviewed file for this program.
Roster observation
Who is listed in the source release?
No source-listed roster rows were observed for this program in the current release.
Recruiting review edition Sep 8, 2026 · coverage is partial (14 programs reviewed). See the full methodology and coverage map before drawing a roster conclusion.
Look ahead / 2026–27
The next assignments.
Checking the live schedule edition…
No upcoming games for this program in the partial schedule.
Read the evidence correctly.
The top-line adjusted ratings use the full published preseason model. Split statistics below them are unadjusted observations from 2025–26. Opponent ranks are the current model’s ranks, not what was known before each historical game. The “top 50” split is descriptive and does not enter model evaluation.
Rates pool numerators and denominators from games with all fields required for that metric. Missing values remain unavailable; every metric shows its game count. Ranks require at least 10 games and compare programs in the model’s rated field. Ties share rank; percentiles use their average position. High percentiles mean favorable values only for metrics with a defined direction.
Player workloads refer to recorded 2025–26 appearances. Estimated usage divides FGA + 0.475 × FTA + turnovers by minutes-prorated team opportunities in those same games. It assumes team opportunity rates were constant while a player was on court; it is not a lineup or play-by-play measurement. Overtime is included in available minutes. Minutes and usage samples can differ.
Source statistics: SportsDataverse bulk releases, CC BY 4.0. Calculations and model: Silvermine. Definitions draw on publicly documented Four Factors and basketball rate statistics; these are not another publisher’s proprietary ratings. Model notebook →