Troy
vs South Alabama
The projected game, the historical pressure points and the personnel questions to take into preparation. Generated from published statistics and reviewed announcements.
Feb 18, 2027 · start time unconfirmedSouth Alabama designated home · Mitchell Center
South Alabama win estimate 56.3%
Projected total 137.2. Nominal 80% range for home scoring margin: -15.1 to +16.8. Either team winning falls within that range.
The model uses historical opponent-adjusted efficiency and tempo. It has no current roster or injury inputs. Schedule details are partial and may change. Model edition: Sep 12, 2026.
Checking the latest registered D1 forecast for this game…
Know what is settled before you scout.
The source schedule has not confirmed a tip time; recheck before distributing a plan.
Source schedule →Troy 100% prior minutes represented · South Alabama 100% prior minutes represented
Roster evidence →No qualifying bookmaker observation is published; an edge cannot be reported.
Record a manual check →These checks describe source coverage and model state. They do not convert a roster listing into eligibility, a schedule into availability, or a market quote into a recommendation.
Compare a line you observed.
Enter a home spread, game total or both sides of a moneyline from a source you are reviewing. Results use the current forecast when available and stay in this browser; they are not a verified market observation, recommendation or ledger record.
Convention: spread edge = model home margin + home spread; total edge = model total − observed total. This arithmetic does not account for vig, pushes, limits, timing or player availability. The spread-cover probability is a normal approximation from the published nominal 80% margin interval; it is not a calibrated betting probability. Moneyline edge uses both sides to remove two-way vig. Expected return is a hypothetical arithmetic output from the model probability and quoted price; it is not a recommendation or a realized result.
Where the styles meet.
These are historical questions, not forecast adjustments. Each direction highlights up to two Four Factors with the largest difference in favorable percentile between one offense and the opposing defense. Rates came against different schedules and personnel; their difference is not an expected matchup outcome.
Keeping the game off the line
Troy offense ↔ South Alabama defense
Free-throw attempts / FGA. Favorable percentile: 55.3 offense / 98.9 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Which actions draw shooting fouls, and which defenders can contain them without fouling? Check the personnel and foul context before assigning a coverage.
Finishing the possession
Troy offense ↔ South Alabama defense
Offensive rebound rate. Favorable percentile: 85.2 offense / 46.3 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Who earns the second-chance possessions, and who must take the first box-out assignment? Check whether extra crashers leave transition chances at the other end.
Protecting the possession
South Alabama offense ↔ Troy defense
Turnovers / possessions. Favorable percentile: 99.2 offense / 67.9 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Do the turnovers come from ball pressure, passing-lane help or unforced mistakes? Identify the ball handlers and distinguish live-ball losses from dead-ball turnovers.
Finishing the possession
South Alabama offense ↔ Troy defense
Offensive rebound rate. Favorable percentile: 6.0 offense / 34.2 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Who earns the second-chance possessions, and who must take the first box-out assignment? Check whether extra crashers leave transition chances at the other end.
The possession matchup.
Troy with the ball.
| Historical rate | TroyOffense | South AlabamaDefense |
|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 52.2%34 games · rank 162/366 | 49.4%33 games · rank 93/366 |
| Turnovers / possessions | 17.1%34 games · rank 215/366 | 18.3%33 games · rank 91/366 |
| Offensive rebound rate | 35.1%34 games · rank 55/366 | 30.3%33 games · rank 197/366 |
| Free-throw attempts / FGA | 35.7%34 games · rank 164/366 | 24.3%33 games · rank 5/366 |
| Three-point attempt share | 45.9%34 games | 64.9%33 games |
| Two-point FG% | 54.1%34 games · rank 108/366 | 50.0%33 games · rank 118/366 |
| Three-point FG% | 33.3%34 games · rank 215/366 | 32.7%33 games · rank 124/366 |
Defense reports opponent rates, except turnovers forced. Each statistic pools its own valid numerators and denominators; game counts can differ. Three-point attempt share describes style and has no favorable rank.
Open Troy’s full dossier →South Alabama with the ball.
| Historical rate | South AlabamaOffense | TroyDefense |
|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 52.9%33 games · rank 124/366 | 49.5%34 games · rank 98/366 |
| Turnovers / possessions | 12.8%33 games · rank 4/366 | 17.8%34 games · rank 118/366 |
| Offensive rebound rate | 25.4%33 games · rank 344/366 | 31.1%34 games · rank 241/366 |
| Free-throw attempts / FGA | 38.7%33 games · rank 78/366 | 31.0%34 games · rank 93/366 |
| Three-point attempt share | 36.6%33 games | 39.0%34 games |
| Two-point FG% | 53.3%33 games · rank 142/366 | 50.9%34 games · rank 165/366 |
| Three-point FG% | 34.8%33 games · rank 132/366 | 31.5%34 games · rank 51/366 |
Defense reports opponent rates, except turnovers forced. Each statistic pools its own valid numerators and denominators; game counts can differ. Three-point attempt share describes style and has no favorable rank.
Open South Alabama’s full dossier →Stat definitions and denominators
Effective FG%: (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM) / FGA.
Turnovers / possessions: Turnovers / estimated possessions.
Offensive rebound rate: ORB / (ORB + opponent DRB).
Free-throw attempts / FGA: FTA / FGA; displayed per 100 field-goal attempts.
Rates are pooled from the source records, not averages of game percentages. Rankings compare the 366 programs in the model field. Some source games include opponents outside Division I.
The pace question.
Troy recorded 67.9 possessions per 40 minutes across 34 paired games; South Alabama recorded 66.1 across 33. The adjusted forecast for this matchup is 64.9. Identify which team’s personnel can dictate the first pass, early offense and transition balance; the historical tempo gap alone does not identify a tactical winner.
See which lineups actually shared the floor.
The matchup-stint archive keeps each publisher-native five-player group beside the opposing five, with possessions, repeat games and scoring margin. Search these teams to turn the factor question into a film assignment; the source IDs remain separate from the forecast and recruiting identities.
What happened when these programs met?
This is a descriptive look at completed meetings where the home and away source team IDs matched exactly in the scouting archive. It is context for preparation, not a head-to-head forecast; a missing row means this source edition did not retain a qualifying meeting.
| Date | Location | Score | Result | Margin | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026Game 401808685 | South Alabama home | 65–54 | W | +11.0 | ESPN source ↗ |
| Jan 3, 2026Game 401808599 | South Alabama road | 49–59 | L | -10.0 | ESPN source ↗ |
What survives a harder schedule?
These four-factor role estimates adjust for opponent and season recency using the same team-and-venue design as the efficiency model. A positive gap means the offense’s favorable rate is stronger than the opposing defense’s corresponding rate. This is a descriptive lens for preparation, not a new forecast or a claim about the next rotation.
Troy offense vs South Alabama defense.
| Adjusted rate | TroyOffense | South AlabamaDefense | Favorable gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free-throw attempt rate | 36.4% | 28.3% | +8.2 ppfavors this offense |
| Offensive rebound rate | 34.1% | 30.0% | +4.1 ppfavors this offense |
| Turnover rate | 18.2% | 17.9% | -0.3 ppfavors this defense |
| Effective FG% | 50.7% | 50.8% | -0.1 ppfavors this defense |
For turnover rate, lower offensive turnover rate and higher forced-turnover rate are favorable. The other rows favor more efficient offense and lower opponent rates.
South Alabama offense vs Troy defense.
| Adjusted rate | South AlabamaOffense | TroyDefense | Favorable gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rebound rate | 25.1% | 30.6% | -5.6 ppfavors this defense |
| Turnover rate | 14.5% | 18.6% | +4.1 ppfavors this offense |
| Effective FG% | 51.6% | 50.2% | +1.4 ppfavors this offense |
| Free-throw attempt rate | 33.7% | 32.7% | +1.0 ppfavors this offense |
For turnover rate, lower offensive turnover rate and higher forced-turnover rate are favorable. The other rows favor more efficient offense and lower opponent rates.
Who carried the old possessions?
The three largest recorded minute totals on each 2025–26 team, among players with at least 200 minutes. These are historical contributors, not a projected 2026–27 rotation. Follow the player history and verify availability before assigning matchups.
Troy / 2025–26
Usage sample: 34 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 34 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 33 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
South Alabama / 2025–26
Usage sample: 31 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 33 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 33 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
How much old workload is represented?
This is an exact-ID comparison between the published 2026–27 roster listing and recorded 2025–26 minutes. It describes what the source currently represents; it does not establish eligibility, availability, a returning decision or a projected rotation, and it does not change the forecast.
Troy
| Role workload | Prior min | Returning | Incoming | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard8 listed | 2,805 | 100% | — | — |
| Forward6 listed | 3,678 | 100% | — | — |
| Center1 listed | 566 | 100% | — | — |
Roster shape uses only the source-reported position labels on this listing; it is descriptive and does not identify a viable lineup or positional matchup.
Role rows use prior production attached to the currently listed source records. They are a narrower sample than the team denominator above; a missing or unclassified listing remains unknown.
The percentage uses 7,049 recorded 2025–26 minutes for this program as its denominator. A missing listing is not evidence of a departure; a new entry is not proof of a freshman or transfer.
Review roster observations and announcements →Build a role shortlist for Troy →South Alabama
| Role workload | Prior min | Returning | Incoming | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard9 listed | 3,944 | 100% | — | — |
| Forward4 listed | 2,781 | 100% | — | — |
| Center0 listed | — | — | — | — |
Roster shape uses only the source-reported position labels on this listing; it is descriptive and does not identify a viable lineup or positional matchup.
Role rows use prior production attached to the currently listed source records. They are a narrower sample than the team denominator above; a missing or unclassified listing remains unknown.
The percentage uses 6,725 recorded 2025–26 minutes for this program as its denominator. A missing listing is not evidence of a departure; a new entry is not proof of a freshman or transfer.
Review roster observations and announcements →Build a role shortlist for South Alabama →What changed after those box scores?
This board covers a limited set of schools. An announced addition does not by itself prove game-day availability. Later statements remain in the player’s timeline; a missing entry is not evidence that a player left or that a roster stayed unchanged.
Troy
This program is outside the reviewed school-announcement coverage in this edition. Check its official roster and availability reports.
Open the recruiting evidence board →South Alabama
This program is outside the reviewed school-announcement coverage in this edition. Check its official roster and availability reports.
Open the recruiting evidence board →What the source wire is saying.
These dated headlines are retained from permitted ESPN and NCAA.com RSS feeds and are shown as reporting context. They do not alter the forecast or establish an injury, eligibility, transfer or availability decision.
Baker-Mazara sues USC, Musselman in wake of dismissal
Former Southern California basketball player Chad Baker-Mazara is suing the university and coach Eric Musselman after his abrupt dismissal from the team in March.
Read publisher source ↗Lander upsets Nova Southeastern to advance to first-ever DII men's basketball title game
<img src="https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/styles/small_16x9/public-s3/thumbnails/2026-03/lander-thumb.jpg?h=a1404d4f&itok=eYoLSmMc"> Watch the final seconds and celebration of Lander upsetting top-seeded and defending champion Nova Southeastern in the semifinals of the 2026 NCAA DII men's basketball tournament.
Read publisher source ↗Lander stuns No. 1 Nova Southeastern, advances to DII men's basketball championship game
<img src="https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/styles/small_16x9/public-s3/images/2026-03/Lander-upsets-Nova-Southeastern-basketball.jpg?h=8684bcdb&itok=jAO7TXjT"> The DII men's basketball defending champions and No. 1-seeded Nova Southeastern were upset in the national semifinals by No. 5 Lander. The Bearcats are heading to their first-ever national championship game in program history after silencing the potent Shark attack.
Read publisher source ↗Breaking down the DII Men’s Elite Eight
<img src="https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/styles/small_16x9/public-s3/images/2026-03/CSUEB%20copy.jpg?h=7a6e80fd&itok=jtdkaoZa"> Nova Southeastern heads to Pittsburgh looking for its third title in four years.
Read publisher source ↗The forecast and market trail.
Published ledger edition Sep 15, 2026. Only a record matching this game’s model, participants, start and prediction can appear here. Quotes are last qualifying observations, not verified closing lines or a live price feed.
Forecast registered . Status: Excluded · Start time unconfirmed.
No qualifying timestamped market comparison is available for this forecast in this ledger edition. A model-versus-market edge cannot be reported.
For spreads, a positive difference is model home margin plus the observed home spread; for totals it is model total minus the line; for moneylines it is model home probability minus the two-way normalized market probability. These are model disagreements, not placed bets or profit estimates.
Inspect this game’s complete forecast and source history →Retained reading snapshots of this brief →
Take it into the film room.
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